US
Correlation Between US CPI Data and BTC PriceCorrelation between US CPI data and Bitcoin price in the following period since Nov '23:
14 Nov '23: CPI -0.5% > BTC +22.59%
12 Dec '23: CPI -0.1% > BTC + 16.29%
11 Jan '24: CPI +0.3% > BTC -17.36%
13 Feb '24: CPI -0.3% > BTC +45.84%
12 Mar '24: CPI +0.1% > BTC -15.68%
10 Apr '24: CPI +0.3% > BTC -18.21%
15 May '24: CPI -0.1% > BTC +17.38% (for now)
12 Jun '24: ???
USNAS100 (Falling Pressure...)Technical Analysis
The price dropped by approximately 1.30%, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
Currently, the price will trade between 18,435 and 18,550 until a breakout occurs.
Bearish Scenario: Stability below 18,435 will likely lead to a drop towards 18,250.
Bullish Scenario: The price must break above 18,550 and stabilize to reach 18,650 and 18,735.
The Nasdaq continues to experience bearish pressure.
Pivot Line: 18500
Resistance Levels: 18650, 18735, 18820
Support Levels: 18340, 18250, 18110
Today's range is expected to be between the support at 18230 and the resistance at 18650.
previous idea:
Could US30 bounce from here?Price is falling towards a support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 38,606.09
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 38,120.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 39,072.18
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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DXY - Are You Ready?📈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📉 DXY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in red.
Currently, it is undergoing a correction phase, and approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong demand zone highlighted in orange.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange demand and lower red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #DXY is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
ETH - It is Happening! 🦋Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
As per my last analysis, shown in the attached chart, ETH rejected the $3000 round number and surged by over 20%.
What's next?
📈As long as the $3500 round number holds, we expect a continuation towards the previous all-time high of around $4800.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
And always remember:
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTCUSD Major Sell NOW!Simple trading - Heads and shoulder
BTCUSD is dropping below the 1hr heads and shoulder pattern.
2 things will play out here,
1. BTC will continue to drop to target @60k or retest the previous resistance @62k then drop to the 60k level.
2. BTC will reject the head and shoulders pattern and regain bullish strength back up to 64k
**If BTC fails to remain above 60k price may fall to to 57k (daily support)
US30For now it is to watch and let effect take as to what will happen. We don't predict the market but we forecast from signs of the market and we build ideas on that, then according to our plans we set out to make the most we can.
Hear we have different highs and probably why the sell off has not began. But we know that we are in a correction of a bearish leg. This gives perspective on to the longer term view and what to expect long term.
39035 - 39040 is our target and what price does here will explain what we do next.
NASDAQ100 - US MARKETS UPDATEInvesting isn't always that easy, heh?
Especially in Bear Markets, the market circumstances seem to trick one into thinking, that the next bull run will happen soon.
The Bull is climbing up the stairway and it takes a while, whereas the bear jumps out of the window.
Looking at YTD 32.88% decline as of 27.06.2022 in the US TECH 100 is one of the worst Q1 and Q2 in the history of US markets.
Inflation is at 8,6% in the United States (10.06.2022) and around 7.5% in Europe. The western world faces a huge backlash after rising the interest charges by 0.75 percentage-points to a range between 1.5%-1.75%.
Covid-19 is still around and has sluggished the world economy and growth view for the past two years.
Facing climate change may be one of, if not the biggest threat of the 21. century and the Ukraine conflict does not make it look better at all:- )
All the Quantitative Easing and Printing money have led to massive inflation all over the place. The only real solution is to simply "produce more".
Sounds easier than it's done, with a view to collapsed supply chains.
Chart:
RSI is at lows forming a triangle, indecision. 200MA is a good trivial indicator to get a minimum idea of the AVERAGE price of this derivate.
I think a retest of 14.500 is in play, after which the bear market could continue.
I think we have not seen the bottom here, since the real sell-off hasn't happened yet.
Being liquid in dangerous times is the best thing you can do and is actually the only way to really make some money.
So, catching a falling knife is always a risky thing to do, but if you catch it, this could change your life.
These kinds of opportunities are not that often in life, maybe once in a lifetime or once every one or two decades.
The NASDAQ doubled in on year, literally mooning, due to the printed money, which was flooded into the markets, to catch the markets and secure a fluid economy, but guess what, we have used our last gun powder, and no we are facing the costs of this two-year printerage.
It was necessary, but the consequences are real and in my personal opinion, most of the stocks are overpriced. I'm just gonna say it, they are OVERPRICED. Especially tech and housing market looks bubbly and an honest recovery after a healthy bull market from literally the 2008 crisis.
So I think we can go down and test the highs before the Covid-19 Crash (16.03.2020) at around 10.000 points.
I feel like September could be a stop to raising rates, which would lead to more upside, but IF we somehow manage to find a bottom and to not test lower levels, highs as 20.000 until 2024 is absolutely in play!
No one knows what will happen, so my personal bet would be bearish until the market, the government and the economy gives massive positive signals to the public, to reenter a bull market.
Until then i personally stay bearish and stay liquid. I try to average in an amount here and there from time to time. At one point it will turn because everything comes to an end at a certain point.
All right, if you made it until here, thanks for reading!
Take care,
gqt
BTCUSD - Bitcoin 1HR Simple trading - Head and shoulders
I do not need to say much, BTC has broken below the head and shoulders neck line.
SELL (entry6300)
I would usually wait for a break and retest, but it's the weekend and BTC could drop in a couple of hours. Or it may hold above 63000 until tomorrow.
USE STOPLOSS (63500)
GOOGL - After every Storm, there is a Rainbow 🌈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 GOOGL has been overall bullish, trading within the rising rainbow wedge pattern.
Currently, GOOGL is in a storm 🌪/ correction phase and it is approaching the lower bound of the wedge acting as a non-horizontal support.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support zone at $128 marked in blue.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support and lower rainbow trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #GOOGL is around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Netflix, just another analysis.Have you ever wondered what happens when a growth stock, well, doesn't grow anymore?
Netflix is, at the moment, just a few bucks (I mean billions lol) below the 100 B dollar market cap.
kinda big uh? it's like 100 unicorn start-ups together :D
Anyway, let's get to the point.
In the past, the company now considered OLD for us, the younger, simply exists, and they just work (you know, revenue, FCF etc, all cool stuff)
they're not considered growth, ANYMORE, cuz in the past they must have been considered so right? everyone grows, then you just "keep what you have" or fight for it when you cant grow bigger.
Now, from the internet, it is kinda known (in my studies at least) that a PE of 13-17 makes a company a good buy, but it's not undervalued yet.
Well, it is also true that a PE of 30 for a growth stock is considered a good ratio as well, cuz you know, that's a GROWTH stock.
Ah almost forgot, when there are not a lot of numbers or a lot of past years to analyse, the PE can go well about 30 (remember tesla? XD)
So, the point is: Netflix went from PE>100 in the past years, then it fell to PE = 38 after Q4 2021 and NOW after Q1 2022 has fallen to PE = 19
Does it recall something to you?
My idea? this "thing" just went from "hypergrowth stock" 2 years ago (ofc covid helped, maybe its not a big pharma conspiracy but a Netflix one LOL), to a "simple growth" 1 quarter ago, and now its gone to a "value" stock.
Before I end the analysis, a reminder: at the moment, Netflix has a PE of 19, well above the >13 expected for a value stock to be at a good price, which means the stock should fall another 30% AND, well, what a lucky coincidence another fall of 30% would bring the price to the MA200 of the MONTHLY chart.
Trade safe, and remember that wall street uses Algorithms, faster and better than you for trading purpouses.
Let me know in the comment if you have a DIFFERENT opinion, if you agree with me simply leave a like ;)
EURUSD - Wait For The Bulls 📈Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red.
Currently, EURUSD is approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support in green at $1.08.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD is hovering around the circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
SNOW is Rising this Winter❄️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 SNOW has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in red.
Currently, SNOW is in a correction phase and approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong support in green at $140.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #SNOW approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
NVDA - Once a Castle, Always a Castle🏯Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 NVDA has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge in green.
Currently, NVDA is in a correction phase and approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting the previous major high marked in red.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the previous major high and lower green trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #NVDA approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
US Dollar Four Day OutlookIt's always important to look the US Dollar when determining the outlook for Bitcoin. Remember, when the US Dollar rises, Bitcoin does the opposite, which is why the price of BTC is experience in the red.
However, looking at the US Dollar Chart, the DXY is oversold on the Relative Strength Index. This is a bullish momentum for Bitcoin, as the US Dollar can experience a pullback for the next four days.
We need to wait confirmation on the MACD on the four hour timeframe.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
NKE - Doing It ✔️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
NKE has been hovering inside a range in the shape of a symmetrical triangle.
Moreover, it is currently sitting around a strong support and round number $100.
🏹 Hence, as long as the $95 support holds, we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
TSLA - Are you Ready for the Ride?🚘Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 TSLA has been overall bearish , trading within the falling channel in blue.
However, TSLA is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel acting as a non-horizontal support.
Moreover , it is retesting a strong demand zone at 150 - 165 marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #TSLA is around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Massive US Unemployment Move Inbound
On the FRED:UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession.
Currently, FRED:UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever since. Historically, this means that we can expect an aggressive move in unemployment in the following months.
UnitedHealth: One Last Dip 💦UnitedHealth's share price has fallen sharply in recent weeks. However, it showed a reaction at the support level of $472.12 and has now risen a little. Our expectation is that it is currently working on the magenta wave (Z), the last sub-wave of the green wave (B). As part of this movement, the price should dip below the support level and form a low there. Only then should the price turn around.
📊 Upcoming PMI Report Analysis 📈PMI Report Update
The PMI Services report is due out in approximately 2 hours. Last month, the index rose from 50.6% to 53.4%. This month, the forecast is slightly lower at 53%.
There is not a significant difference between the actual figure from last month and the forecast. However, the key point is that the figure is above 50.
In general, a higher than expected reading is likely to lead to a rise in the dollar index, while a lower than expected reading is likely to lead to a fall in the dollar index.
If the actual figure is in line with the forecast or there is no significant difference from last month, we do not expect any major market reaction.
Additional Information:
The PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a survey-based measure of economic activity.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The PMI Services report focuses on the services sector of the economy.
The services sector is the largest sector of the economy in most developed countries.
__________
This information is provided for general knowledge purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
🇺🇸 President Joe Biden’s Bearish Remarks on the USD vs. CNY 🇨
Ladies and gentlemen, my fellow Americans, and all you Zoomers out there, gather 'round! Uncle Joe’s got some thoughts about our greenbacks and those sneaky Chinese Yuan. Buckle up, because we’re diving into the financial rabbit hole. 🐇
1. “The Dollar’s Got Swagger”
You know, folks, the U.S. dollar has been strutting its stuff for centuries. It’s like that cool kid in high school who always had the latest sneakers and a killer mixtape. Well, guess what? The dollar’s still got swagger. 💸
2. “Yuan? More Like Yawn!”
Now, let’s talk about the Chinese Yuan. Sure, it’s got pandas on its bills, but pandas don’t pay the rent, my friends. The Yuan’s like that kid who shows up to the party with a veggie platter. Nice try, but we’re here for the pizza. 🍕
3. “Quantitative Easing? Nah, We’re on a Diet!”
Our Federal Reserve’s been flexing its muscles, printing money like it’s going out of style. But guess what? We’re not on a doughnut binge. We’re on a financial diet. No more QE buffets. 🍩
4. “Trade Wars? More Like Pillow Fights!”
China and the U.S. have been duking it out in trade wars. But honestly, it’s like watching two toddlers in superhero costumes pillow-fighting. Cute, but not exactly world-changing. 🛌
5. “0.11 CNY/USD? That’s a Bargain!”
So, rumor has it the yuan’s gonna dump to 0.11 CNY/USD. Well, let me tell you, that’s practically a yard sale price. Sell one, get one free! 🛒
6. “Zoomers, HODL Your Avocado Toast!”
To my Zoomer pals: Forget avocado toast for a sec. HODL those dollars like they’re vintage Pokémon cards. Trust me, when the Yuan’s doing the cha-cha, you’ll thank me. 🥑💰
7. “Crypto? Nah, I Prefer Monopoly Money!”
And don’t get me started on crypto. It’s like playing Monopoly with invisible cash. Pass Go, collect Bitcoin. But give me that real green paper any day. 💵
In conclusion, my fellow Americans, let’s keep our eyes on the prize. The dollar’s been through wars, recessions, and disco fever. It ain’t backing down. As for the Yuan, well, pandas are cute, but they won’t save your retirement fund. Stay woke, stay dollar-wise, and remember: In Joe we trust (and a little bit of Ben Franklin). 🇺🇸💪
Disclaimer: This post is purely fictional and for entertainment purposes. No actual financial advice here, folks. Consult your financial advisor, not Uncle Joe. 🎩🤝