US
Gold Next Move ( Dxy ? ) 🤔Gold though was heading for its worst week since February as the rise in Treasury yields drives investors out of the precious metal, which pays no yield. It nursed losses at $1,875 an ounce.
My opinion about the yellow metal TVC:GOLD that he will keep falling to 1962 zone
Indices Outlook GER40 and US100Shorterm and Longerterm outlook for indices to see where the opportunities are.
Berkshire (BRK.B) -> Trend ContinuationMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Berkshire Hathaway.
At the moment you can see that Berkshire stock is retesing its previous all time high which is roughly at the $350 area and we might see another short term bearish rejection.
However considering that the overall trend is still very bullish I am waiting for a simple break and retest of the current resistance level and then I am looking for a trend continuation.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
History of the U.S. told by SPX I wanted to take some time to recount you the tale of the U.S., from the roaring 20s until today. But I wanted to tell you this tell from the perspective of the S&P 500. And so after horrendous hours of research, I think I am ready to tell you this tale, and hopefully stay true to the S&Ps view of things. So here it goes!
The Roaring 20s
It all started in the 20s. The ROARING 20s. The roaring 20s were marked by stark improvements in social, political and economic modernization. The industrial revolution took off in the US and this created jobs, opportunities and, more importantly, disposable income for families across the US.
This was the first time in US history where more families lived in cities than on farms, and thus marked our beginnings of an industrialized century. This was also marked by a lot of social innovation, such as night clubs (well, Speakeasies really) and general outings of people to events, theatres, etc.
The Great Depression
The roaring 20s came to a grinding halt in the 1930s with the onset of the great depression. The great depression was a complex result of an over-inflated stock market, changes to governmental policies, bank failures and a general over-inflation of company and share prices.
Recovery Interlude
Between 1932 and 1936, the US began a slow recovery from the depression. However, the US was thrown back into a recession in 1936, with the stock market seeing a 316% increase over 1676 days.
This was abruptly halted at the end of 1936, beginning of 1937 when the US experienced yet another recession, that lasted until 1939. However, by 1939, the real GDP in the US was well above its pre-depression levels and, economically, the US had recovered from the depression.
Word War 2
After the 1936 US recession, September of 1939 marked the commencement of World War 2 for the US. This lasted until September of 1945.
While, for the most part, it looks like the US stock market stagnated through most of the war, interestingly the DOW increased 10% on the first day of trading after Hitler invaded Poland in 1939. Following the attack on Pearl Harbour, the market fell around 2.9% but regained those losses in one month. All in all, from the start of WWII to the end, the market saw an increase of 50%, so not really terrible and not really stagnation!
The Start of the Never Ending Bull Run
While there was an initial rally and correction following the termination of WW2, this period is traditionally marked as the start of the decades long bull run that we continue to be in today.
There was a “baby dip” in June of 1950, on the commencement of the Korean War, where the S&P fell roughly 10%. But this was quickly bought back up and continued to run up:
The Correction of 1953:
After the first few years of the commencement of the decade long bull run, the market experienced its, arguably, first minor “correction” that wasn’t the result of any major catastrophes, just simply a cumulative effect of various small things.
From Jan 1953 till about September of 1953, the S&P fell roughly 15%, bringing it back into its expected time series range for the time:
This was the result of such things as:
a) Rising inflation that lead to the Federal Reserving hiking interest rates (sound familiar?)
b) Economic adjustment growing pains: Shifting from wartime to peacetime economics causes some volatility and adjustments at the societal and market level.
c) Corporate earnings: With the result of war ending, some corporations which profited on the war efforts, started to fall short on earnings. This contributed to lack-luster earnings at the time.
d) Over-inflated valuations: I mean, has anything changed? All this dip buying lead to over-valuation in stocks.
Back on Track, 1950s style:
After September 1953, the bottom was in and the S&P climbed up to approximately 119% over the course of 1065 days.
This is one of the most dramatic examples of economic expansion. Economic expansion marked the most part of the 1950s, with declining unemployment, inflation that was more under control as a result of the interest rate hikes in the early 1950s, and increasing disposable income by households.
In addition to this, there was great advancements in technology, with computers and processors being implemented in corporate and government contexts, and companies like IBM continually making advancements in this industry.
Various Other Corrections:
Throughout the 1950s up until 1969, there were various corrections, all resulting from the general same uncertainties and concerns, i.e. Inflation, employment, Federal Reserve and other governmental policies and geopolitical conflict.
Its interesting that the same concerns that plagued the market in the 50s, 60s and 70s are still the ones affecting us today.
The “Lost Decade”
The Lost Decade started around the beginning of the 1970s, after a sustained bear market in 1969 (which lead to just over a 35% decline in the US stock market) and lasting till the start of 1980.
It was called the lost decade because the US stock market spent a decade in stagnation. The result of this was mainly due to high inflation (when you hear people say stagflation, it generally is referencing a similar situation to this). This lead to a whole load of other problems such as:
a) Increasing interest rates to combat inflation
b) Increasing Conflict during the Cold War.
c) Negative real returns (investors were not seeing any returns and overally negative returns on their investments over the course of a decade!), this lead to a lack of confidence and thus, in some cases, exoduses from the market.
Along Came the 80s
Then came the 80s, complete with leg warmers, aerobic classes, health consciousness, “the Millennial children” and massive technological advancements.
At the start of the 80s, the market rallied about 50% in roughly 273 days:
More Uncertainty and Pandemics
Despite the strong start of the 80s, this was soon to be halted at the start of 1981. Nineteen-eighty-one was the onset of another correction. By 1981, the federal reserve had not let up. The US people were continually bombarded by persistently high interest rates. Additionally, the US economy was already in a recession at the beginning of 1981.
There was also ongoing concerns around this time with the HIV pandemic; however, this isn’t theorized to have been a major influencing factor in this correction as the general attitude of Government and institutions was apathy in this regard (as, by this time, it was known to only be a concern for Haitian immigrants, IV drug users and gay men *eye roll*). It wasn’t until 1984, when this presented more of a public concern once contaminated blood supplies lead to a massive epidemic in the US and Canada.
But, post 1981, as far s the market was concerned, smooth sailing, with the S&P climbing almost 200% in 1827 days (or approximately 5 years), marking an, on average, 40% a year increase.
The Flash Crash of 1987 (AKA, Black Monday):
October 19th, 1987 was marked by a sudden and severe decline in stock prices. The losses sustained on this crash were estimated at 1.71 trillion US dollars, as the market fell more than 20% in a single day. This was termed "Black Monday" (not to be confused with the awesome song Blue Monday by New Order.).
The photo of the papers in the air really got me. I had to laugh because I can relate. On really bad days I have been known to throw things in the air and be like "I'm done. I'M DONE!
The cause of this was thought to be the introduction of algorithmic trading model behaviour which then triggered mass investor panic, though, a tumble of this degree is likely to be multifaceted and never truly fully understood.
Various tech stocks during Black Monday, IBM fell over 20%, AMD over 30%, MSFT over 29% and AAPL over around 29%.
This was short lived however, and from then on was marked by the ever so famous dotcom bubble.
The Dotcom Bubble:
After black Monday, which also brought the S&P back into its anticipated time series range, the S&P return to normal and stable growth, reflecting the general economic conditions at the time. However, this was accelerated at the start of 1995 with the advent and rapid uptake of the world wide web.
From the start of 1995 till about March of 2000, the S&P saw exponential growth, rising approximately 250% over 1885 days or 5 years (average return of 50% a year).
This was marked by rapid technological advancements, euphoria and speculation and an excessive use of IPOs (despite most of them lacking profitability). While Euphoria and speculation sustained the market for an admirably long time, it came crashing down in the early 2000s when the lack of profitability of these IPO tech companies came to light (I am looking at you pets.com).
However, in 2000, as these enterprises slowly began to liquidate and go defunct, the market, too, made a dramatic correction of 50%, back to its expected range:
This lasted a total of 944 days, or about 2 years.
The Housing Bubble
And as the pendulum swings, we transition from one bubble to the next. Immediately following the dotcom correction, we then entered the housing bubble of the YTK era, where the market had a steady rise of over 100% in a span of 1826, or 5 years:
The housing bubble wasn’t solely to credit for this growth, as the US had also declared war on Iraq. As we saw from the events of WW2, war tends to be looked at positively by the market (*another eye roll*). This does economically make sense though, war = business and business = profits. For war to happen, we need industries to produce. If we look at LMT (a huge military and defence sector) during the period of 2003 until 2008, it outpaced the S&P by almost 100%!!
And RTX (a huge supplier of US defence) outpaced both LMT and the S&P, growing over 200% in this time:
But unfortunately this, too, had to end. And we all know how it ended.
The 2008 Crash
I won’t dwell on this, it’s the most stated, studied and discussed event in market history, so there really is no need to dwell. But to summarize, the increase in subprime mortgage lending lead to increasing defaults. Increasing defaults on banks that, themselves, were over-leveraged, lead to bank closures, which lead to a whole domino effect with the end result being an over 55% decline in the US stock market over 518 days, or roughly 2 years.
From there, we have since resumed the centuries long bull market and haven’t looked back. The brief COVID-19 Crash in 2020 actually led to a fairly decent correction back to the anticipated range of the S&P (a regression to the mean), but this was short lived:
Despite tumbling over 35% in a matter of days, this was simply bought right back up and climbed 123% in a matter of 701 days:
The results of this were likely attributed to the use of quantitative easing and the federal government monetary stimulus policies creating more money to inject into the market.
The 2022 Bear Market:
And finally, the 2022 bear market. I was reluctant to title it as such because some operate on the assumption that the bear market is still a thing, others operate on the assumption that it ended in 2023.
If we look at the S&P currently, this is where we stand:
If we are back in bull market territory and continue up (despite being outside of the time series mean), the 2022 bear market will be among the first bear markets in SPX history to not have undergone a regression to the mean (from a quadratic standpoint). But let’s look at it from a log-linear standpoint:
The bear market of 2022 failed to re-test the mean. So for us to continue up towards the 2 standard deviation mark on the log-linear scale, it will mark a historic event really, a bear market that accomplished, well, nothing haha.
Concluding remarks:
And that, my friends, is the history, AND FUTURE, of the US, as told by the S&P. I hope you took something away from this, but importantly, my purpose of sharing this history with you is so you can see how, regardless of the time, the market is always concerned about the same things. That is:
Interest rates,
Inflation,
Geopolitics and economic policies,
War; and
Corporate earnings.
Its as true as time, nothing else matters to the market than the numbers. Perhaps its sad, perhaps its realistic, perhaps its reality, but it truly seems to be the only thing that has mattered historically and probably the key thing you should take away from this.
Another final note, is that all of our corrections have lead to a "regression to the mean", both on the loglinear scale and on the quadratic scale. So it is interesting to see that we have not "regressed to the mean" with our 2022 bear market.
Anyway, thank you for reading this lengthy post! Leave your comments, questions and critiques below.
Safe trades everyone!
USOIL on bullish move!So as said in my last view on Oil (WTI) i hit in perfect with the 80~ level.
And so far the last couple of days we have gotten data and such, which made the oil stay in the 80-81 level. Thats fine, we have massive support/resistance here.
But i have a feeling that we will go higher and go for the 90~ level.
this could happen throughout August (start of September).
lets see what happens and what data we are given.
Good luck!
US-Oil 17/9/23US-Oil in a bullish range looking for tap into this area to shift us into the next bullish expansion.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
XTIUSD( US OIL )LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet
today XNGUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
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🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
GBPUSD 27/8/23GU as we stated in our GOLD markup we have a pretty similar setup on all USD pairs, we created this range with a news event so as per we are using confirm only to enter at this POI.
Mainly iam looking for this to play from our C-swing and then blast our high POI but of course, we wont hold our breath for this move, iam looking more into our open sweep entries for price action until we shift out of this range until then iam cautious to swing trade the news POI.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
US100 - NASDAQ INDEXNASDAQ (US100) - The market has made a corrective move upwards in an ABC form. The larger trend correction can be termed as WXY with Y likely to end near the previous low (10,440), or possibly lower.
The last high of 15930 needs to hold with price making lower lows from here onwards.
This idea is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. Manage any trade/Investment with your own risk management.
Important market price Dollar IndexThe Bullish Channel is continuously gaining strength from a strong pullback from the 99.581 zone after a support breakout. Now at the current level, the US Dollar Index at 102.894 is a very important level and a resistance level in H4.
As per the channel, the US Dollar will fall to 102.440 to give respect to its Demand zone.
With the channel formed and the major zone marked, the dollar is gaining strength day by day and will touch the 104.500 zone.
As per the gold and major pairs, they will shortly show some bullish movement with short wave corrections in the US dollar price, but the us dollar will be in a bullish trend.
Fundamental market movements will also have a positive impact on the dollar.
The Key zone in US dollar from short reversal;
1- 102.894
2- 103.443
3- 103.714
Mark the US Dollar Index chart, and you will get some good pips in Gold and major currency pairs for short-term bullish movement.
Note: Keep an eye on the US Dollar Economic Currency calendar for better understanding.
Honeywell: Swoop 🦅For two weeks now, Honeywell stock has been heading south, losing more than 10%. It has completed the magenta wave (B) and is currently in the same colored wave (C). Even though the price has rallied a bit this week, we believe that the end of this wave is only in sight further south in our green target zone between $182.14 and $173.09 and that the price should continue to fall. At the green target zone, the overarching correction in the form of the green wave (2) will be completed, which should set the stage for very substantial gains.
Yen's Resilience Challenged: What's Next for USD/JPY? The Yen's struggle against the US Dollar persists this week, as the USDJPY settles above 143.00 and reaches a new high for the third consecutive day. After some sideways trading, traders are now resuming a bullish push aimed at reaching the recent high of 143.9000, followed by potential targets at 144.00 and 145.050.
Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised the markets by making a slight adjustment to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. While this adjustment might have been relatively small, it has kept market participants alert to the possibility of FX intervention if the Yen continues to weaken. In this context, the 50-day MA at 141.430 could offer immediate support.
The most significant event to watch on the calendar is tomorrow's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. A CPI figure lower than anticipated could put pressure on the USD/JPY pair, whereas a higher reading could renew interest in levels above 145.000. However, the potential for BoJ intervention remains a concern for traders operating above this threshold.
NAS100 6/8/23NAS100 giving us a very nice sell range here which carried across from last week we have a lot of confluences for this setup and overall we are looking for it to play out the only thing that tells us we might not get to our entry point is the fact that we are pushing on the swing low already if we are to break this then the setup will become invalid but it will provide us with a new swing high that essentially has a lot of confluences with it as well. overall we want to see the liquidity swept out of the high of our range tapping us into a high volume New York order block which is yet to be mitigated, now we're going to look to sell this lower down to our swing low which is our overall target for liquidity.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
6/8/23 US-Oil US oil here giving us a clear bullish range to the upside after sweeping out the Asia load and London low from Friday we're taking this as a signal price once you travel higher so we're going to look to buy from the low of the range. Now overall this range has everything we've looked for within a setup but of course we will use the same systems we always use and look for a clean entry, overall we are bullish on oil so we're going to look to buy from the low.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
US Dollar Index Growing bullish US Dollar growing bullish and the level marked the structure of the market will be in bullish channel so the level marked, us index moved in these channel to gain strength the major pairs including Gold will be bearish, 102.321 is the key level for reversal when its breaks then market will go ahead as per channel.
Bullish USOIL WTIBaed on the supply worries and the potential boost from chinese economy, there could be a move upwards, short pullback and then a move for the (needed) 80-level.
Rumble long!Rumble has been bouncing up and down from clear looking zones. Rumble bounced from support this week and is looking bullish!
Trade safely!
Let me know what you think!
DXY + Federal government Interest payment | BRICS
The problem with raising rates to deal with inflation is if you have debt the entire system will seize up.
We should be understanding why on earth there is so much interest on Russia at the moment, its because the USA is literally stuck with too much debt, not low enough inflation, BRICS *Russia* notices this and has made a move right in our faces.
And honestly Russia have done nothing but want to help throughout history they just want their fair share of resource profits, rightly so too.
Middle east / Petrodollar.
Russia / BRICS.
This will mean the more BRICS + currency is adopted the less power QE in the USD will have meaning more QE until hyperinflation, good luck trying to stop a country with more nuclear weapons than all of us combined.
The end of the dollar in its current form could be here before 2030.
Gold / BTC sniffing this out. . .
Tit-for-tat in the green arms race should tighten metal suppliesThe energy transition - the process of moving away from greenhouse gas intense energy consumption towards more renewable energy sources - presents a significant positive demand shock for the metals needed to build out grid infrastructure, distribution and transmission cabling, vehicle charging infrastructure, battery components, solar panels, and wind turbines. However, many nations who are trying to deliver on their promises to meet ‘net zero’ pledges have come to the realisation that much of the supply chain to produce the metals and the green energy components is currently far out of their jurisdiction and sphere of influence. The Covid 19 supply chain disruptions clearly highlighted vulnerabilities in the status quo. That crisis had already started the process of ‘reshoring’ or ‘onshoring’, i.e., moving more of a product supply chain closer to the consumer market. The energy transition is accelerating this trend.
Inflation Reduction Act catalyses a global green arms race
The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the USA aims to spur investment in domestic green technology. The majority of the $394 billion in energy and climate funding in the IRA is in the form of tax credits with strings attached to local sourcing.
While other nations and regions have had some form of domestic sourcing incentives in place, the sheer size and scale of the US approach has inspired others to double-down on their strategies.
The European Union’s CRM
The European Union has maintained a list of Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) since 2011. CRMs combine raw materials of high importance to the EU economy and of high risk associated with their supply. The list sharpens the focus on supply security. In 2011, the list contained 14 materials and by 2017, in its fourth iteration, the list was 30 strong.
In March 2023, the European Commission proposed adding four more raw materials to the list. Aluminium has been added to the list1. In the previous iteration, bauxite – a key ingredient for aluminium production – was included, but the now the finished product of aluminium is on the list.
Critical Raw Materials Act
In addition to Critical Raw Materials, the Commission has defined Strategic Raw Materials (SRMs)2. Copper and Nickel are additional SRMs (although they are not CRMs). Aluminium is both a CRM and SRM. The European Commission’s Critical Raw Materials Act proposal sets hard targets for domestic capacities in SRMs by 2030:
at least 10% of the EU’s annual consumption for extraction
at least 40% of the EU’s annual consumption for processing
at least 15% of the EU’s annual consumption for recycling
no more than 65% of the EU’s annual consumption from a single third country
On 30th June 2023, the European Council published its negotiating position3. It wants to raise the bar higher for processing and recycling:
at least 40% 50% of the EU’s annual consumption for processing
at least 15% 20% of the EU’s annual consumption for recycling
The European Parliament has not yet adopted its position and the full negotiation process will likely take time. But based on the Council’s position, negotiations are likely to focus on higher rather than lower local sourcing.
China flirts with new resource restrictions
China said on 3rd July 2023 it would restrict exports of two metals - gallium and germanium - used in semiconductors and electric vehicles, escalating a technology war with the United States and European Union. However, rather than banning the export of the materials, the proposal is to put in place regulations for companies to obtain export licences for foreign shipments of the metal. The curbs follow USA’s blacklisting of Chinese companies in recent years, aimed at cutting them off from access to US technologies, including the most advanced chips. Our understanding is that EU and Chinese officials are locked in negotiations at the moment to keep the trade channel of these metals open.
Conclusions
While a slowly evolving process, last week saw several key markers for resource trade restrictions surface. While it’s understandable that many countries want to ensure resource security by controlling more of the supply chains, we believe the process of adjustment will tighten material supply especially as tit-for-tat counter policies are adopted.
Sources
1 single-market-economyeceuropaeu/sectors/raw-materials/areas-specific-interest/critical-raw-materials_en
2 17 of the 34 materials are labelled as SRMs
3 consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/06/30/critical-raw-material-act-council-adopts-negotiating-position/
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What Events Will Affect Your Trading This Week?Despite a quiet start to the week for the US holidays, there is still plenty going on. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept interest rates at 4.1%, sending the Aussie dollar lower before flying back like a boomerang to where it was trading, at 0.6680 against the USD.
On Wednesday (21:00), we get to see the minutes of the FOMC's last meeting, where they held rates at 5.25%. However, the market is pricing in at least two more rate hikes by the end of the year, so traders will be looking for clues in the minutes as to if and when this might happen.
With Saudi Arabia announcing an extension to their oil production cuts through to August (and possibly further) and Russia following up with a 500K cut of its own, the price of WTI rallied on Monday before slipping back to $70 a barrel. Keep an eye on US oil inventories (18:00 Thursday) as there was a massive 9 million drawdown last week which surprised the market and could further support the price.
On Friday (15:30), the US will release its latest unemployment numbers. Despite seeing an increase of 339K in Non-Farm payrolls last month, there was a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Canadian unemployment data is also released at the same time, which makes USDCAD particularly volatile over this period.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Great setup on $F fordFord triggered an entry for a wonderful setup.
Green lines are targets, red is the stop.
I"m long on Ford!
Bearish Gold WEEK ?Gold took a hit this week as the dollar rebounded after the Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point — twice more than forecast — saying it needed to act against "significant" indicators that British inflation would take longer to fall. U.K.’s main interest rate is now at 5%, the highest since 2008 after the largest rate increase since February. For me the gold metal will go a little bit down . Wha do you think traders , Am I right ?
