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Us02yus05yus10y

ridethepig | US10Y testing resistanceA timely update to the US10Y Yields chart as we approach key areas. The 1.35% pivot level in the very short term is our line in the sand and will define which battlefield we will play Q3 on. ↳ The waterfall lows from 2020 started the next five wave impulsive sequence to the topside, it will take years for the moves to unfold but critical to understand our long term direction (higher yields). ↳ Typically we will see ebb and flow, particularly in summer months. Now with 1.35% & 1.45% the key resistance areas defined and ready to monitor, all we need to track is for a sustained breach above as will imply buyers are in control and demand reassessment in the view that a base is already in . ↳ Here actively tracking for one more leg lower towards 1.00%, it should be enough to unlock the pressure valve in USD one more time before we see the next leg lower in global equity markets in October (more on this over the coming weeks). [/chart
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
1
Game, Set and Match!📌 ridethepig | Game, Set and Match! In order to inform ourselves about the dangers of this move, we shall in what follows point to a few live charts which we called live together from 2019 that the 2s5s was going to invert frantically , and was a bad sign. It enables occupation of the dominos, which for those following long enough will know the one thing we always through individually is our playbook . 1️⃣ Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. ✅ 2️⃣ A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". ✅ 3️⃣ The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. ✅ ✅ Powell's noble attempt to pick a fight with the end game in an economic cycle can be regarded as having come to nothing. The threat comes from confidence and credit . Aiming for a complete annihilation across risk assets later in 2021, the presence of the inversion was sufficient. Now this move is being made with momentum. Game Set ... & Match The simplest example is to explain the move with diagrams which was the wish here. To occupy a piece of tradingview real estate with a live walk through in the end of an economic cycle. This could be considered as a momentum move in the sense of the word. The rule is: I’m long vol for a very long time. Insane risks are palatable but you need to understand the game otherwise you have a very high likelihood of total destruction. Stay long vol short dollars. We are entering into a series of exchanges between public and private assets, the door is closing, like in the Star Wars movie when Chewy and Harrison Ford are running to the doors, we can see the door closing in China, and in Russia and yet we still have a chance to get out. An exchange towards a decentralised world is possibly into 2032.
Editors' picks
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
67
ridethepig | Recession Strategy📍 This chart update comes from the ' Alpha Protocol - Seeking Immediate Extraction ' The cramped inversion should aways be considered the end game of an economic cycle. But of course we will get the v shapers and naysayers who obliges that stonks only go up. The space available to operate against the Robinhood army is becoming more flexible. Sharp speculators are seeing more of an advance in the 2's 5's curve and abandoning ship when it suits them. The threat of recession completely materialised and shows the importance of outguessing its weakness. You can learn from this inversion that: 1️⃣ Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. ✅ 2️⃣ A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". ✅ 3️⃣ The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. Powell's noble attempt to pick a fight with the end game in an economic cycle can be regarded as having come to nothing. The threat comes from confidence and credit. Aiming for a complete annihilation across risk assets into 2021, the presence of the inversion was sufficient. Now this move will be made with momentum.
Editors' picks
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
41
ridethepig | US02Y Market Commentary 2020.02.25Play may go as far a 1.115%. A counterattack from FED needed to save Equities... BTFD always wins? Not this time...When major forces on both sides come together, it comes down to a sort of exchange case 1, which we shall call: " Selling life as expensive as possible " Buyers play ... Sellers happy to exchange at the resistance line, but since FED is condemned to death, it is quite understandable for those wanting to sell Bonds are the highest price possible. Generally speaking, such a telegraphed move is much stranger to the novice than an experienced: Virus worries and Japan confirming recession is trigger a move in vol, and it makes the US05Y-US02Y attractive. Treasuries will outperform for the coming months, Equities will remain soft until later in the year. Hesitant to build full sized positions till we have a technical break as we are aggressively outguessing the next move from FED. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming via likes and comments! Jump in with your charts below!
TVC:US02YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 2s5s Curve Screaming Recession in 2020A timely update to the 2s5s US Curve which is breaking higher with the resteepening after flattening from 2016. This breakout indicated we have marked a meaningful base with the next target in play at 29bps which is the measured target from a breakout. (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. (2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". (3) The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. For those tracking the renewed steepening there are plenty of opportunities if you know how to capture the symmetry; for example Banks outperforming was a no-brainer: Defensives outperforming: Rotation in full swing: End of the Cycle? Smells like it... Recession is calling... Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle... this chart will be one for the history books.
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
2
ALPHA PROTOCOL: SEEKING IMMEDIATE EXTRACTIONYou have opened the grave of an economic cycle. Before we dig deeper into the nature and consequences of our discovery, we will discuss the background to the thesis and consider first what we know from history a few lessons; (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy via recession. A (2) A Fed that lags and finances the Whitehouse will only add fuel to the flames... "it's different this time". (3) The longer the delay in USD devaluation from Fed, the worst the blow is going to be in Equity markets. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet, one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. Protectionism is a serious error. There is no yellow brick road to success with protectionism, and it is no surprise the US via media manipulation have the masses deluded. This is a necessary component to the makeup of the next economic cycle; but it must be in balance, any overshoots or undershoots will destroy the effectiveness in manipulation. Central Banks have been buying 20% of Gold supplies, expressing a view on global risk at rates we have not seen since the Nixon era when mortgage rates were surpassed by wages and no surprises this is also happening again now! Those with a background in fixed income will know alarm bells are ringing louder than usual in bond markets with wages ticking higher than mortgage rates. This is not sustainable and when danger threatens and the crowd does not smell it, don't stand like a sheep, rather run like a deer. Now that Pandora's Box has been opened, it is equally important to understand the consequences and have a pulse to guide us on how to proceed: Utilities starting to form a top: Consumer Staples in the decade long chart: For those with a background in waves you will know this is a typical example of a 5 wave count. This is time to start paying attention for any signs of a meaningful top forming. We know that once this final wave is completed a corrective chapter will begin. This chapter down is only a third of the pages compared with the rally and we can 'read' through it quickly. Rotation in full swing: Cyclicals vs Defensives : Tracking Unemployment closely : Vol sitting on the launch pad Use this chart to good advantage, time to start paying close attention for early signs of a turn. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and we can open the conversation in the comments for all to share ideas and questions.
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
8
Possible Recession comparison US02 yield 5 and 10 yearsI think that, It is in action a possible regression market where bit investor are more interested in long term 10 years that in 2 one. This means that on the contrary, one dollar tomorrow are better than a dollar today, this is real on opposite meaning regarding the contrary one where thanks to inflaction and many different economical situation, a dollar today was always better than a dollar tomorrow. Anyway follow my next chart where a comparison between US yield treasury with 2 and 5 years show us a real ratio below 1, this mean that this recession power limit is in act to beginnig First of all after last 10 years of history in Central bank economical situation, we can consider this first signal a prediction considered a previous feedback but when spread US02Y/US10Y will inverted and will go in negative range we'll have a real signal and confirmation about real recession and when this event had realized it anticipates the recession and it will be bigger than 20s period of 20th century Thanks for what my thoughts
TVC:US02YShort
by albertus76