Bitcoin to $1,000,000, This is It. (Breakdown Explained)
Well here we are, no recession? no rate hikes? what's going on?. The currency collapse is imminent that's what is going on while majority wait for a recession.
No reserve currency has ever survived going past 121% Government Debt to GDP (what about USA in ww2?, this was the start of parabolic technology growth + decrease in spending + war debt repressions
(forced).
Government Debt + Interest will collapse the currency faster if the FED raises interest rates so this is not a possible outcome unless you want to roll the dice.
CPI + Inflation has barely been tamed, FED balance sheet failed to reduce + BTFP.
SPY (priced in USM2) has started a new bubble breakout
(yes meaning it has just started).
Japan raising interest rates means the carry trade is closing (people sell the US Bonds they bought with cheap JPY) adding artificial pressure on the US10Y market.
FED raising rates at 121% Government Debt to GDP will send it to 200% faster than you can imagine, a recession? forget it can't be allowed to happen.
Theory breakdown what happens next?
FED unable to raise rates will start to introduce confidence lost in the dollar that will trigger loss in confidence in US bonds that will require YCC like WW2. When the USA has done this before it equated to the FED needing to get rates back to zero.
The FED has an objective to save the US dollar above all means necessary, raising rates in a situation like this on paper makes sense but leads to to a accelerated debt cycle collapse.
Jerome Powell's only option was to raise rates fast as possible strengthening the DXY as much as they can flowing all capital globally back into the dollar for risk management.
Jerome Powell now must cut rates back to zero and initiate YCC on the US bond market, reinitiate Quantitative Easing to avoid any recession backstopping every market. Inflation must be allowed to run near 20%-100%. Large capital will see this event unfolding and run into assets like Bitcoin & Gold, we already see this and should understand why Spot ETF's and leverage ETF's were rushed to the market pre cuts.
If the US bond market fails, global capitalism as we know it today fails.
If my thesis was invalidated Jerome Powell would have started multiple more rate hike since I first mentioned this back in late 2023.
US10
This chart pattern suggests yields are going higherUS10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow.
But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation. Granted, there are one or two of those engulfing candles that do not fit the exact description (as an open or close is out be a few ticks, meaning it has not truly engulfed). But we've relaxed the rules to note bullish candles that show clear range expansion over the prior candle.
And if that pattern persists, it looks like the 10-year yield (and likely yields across the curve) are at least going to make an attempt to retest or break their cycle highs.
Gold ready for Sell-off in 1957/73 zone for targets 1925/12/021. Gold has reached Daily supply zone 1957-73
2. 1960 is also the lower end of long term Weekly supply zone.
3. Gold is also near the top of the descending channel from May 2023 high 1981.82
4. Fall in DXY and drops in US yields did not lead to growth in Gold today.
Sell in the 1957-1973 supply zone for :
Short term targets - 1925/1912/1902
Medium term target - 1855
Please boost the idea, comment if you like any part of it.
For deeper fundamental insight, pls read the details of previous idea (the last one).
Happy trading!
Tarang
S&P vs UST YieldsYields are going crazy right now. Everything seems like a disaster. Oddly enough, when these particular yields invert (gray boxes), the 10/2, it is historically not the best time to go short, but rather you would have benefited if you had shorted AFTER yields uninverted above 1.0(red dots). Now, okay, maybe this time is different, a ratio of 0.87 isn't exactly sane at this point and maybe the whole thing comes crashing down. It's also true that about a third of this chart represented a fundamentally bullish and arguably much more healthy market, and this is true, we could have samples that don't exactly reflect current conditions. What I'm not so certain about is the idea that the market being bearish or bullish is somehow a barometer of what's going to happen next. At the end of the day, monetary policy rules market prices and perhaps this can be taken as sign that perhaps we don't *really* know what's going on behind the scenes, which strings are being pulled, and how hard. The market is not the economy. The FED has a trading desk at the NY Stock Exchange. Let us ask this question: if it is not absolutely necessary in their eyes to have such a trading desk, why would it exist? Could it be the case that it's simply there and yet they aren't using it? I think that is the less probable scenario.
Take it as you will. Considering the sharp cataclysm of yield inversion, I'm not sure this could constitute trading advice, but I thought it was interesting, as it could be considered bullish evidence for a "last rally" into a mammoth sized selloff.
What do you think? Still bearish? Bullish all the way? Even more confused now!? Have I gone completely crazy?? Let me know!
Thanks for taking a look, take care, and don't forget to hedge your bets.
US10Y Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
US10Y has retested a strong horizontal resistance
And we are already seeing a bearish reaction
So I think that the move down will continue
With the target being the broken falling resistance
That has turned into a support level
Sell!
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See other ideas below too!
Joe Gun2Head Trade - US 10 Year Yield topping out?Trade Idea: US 10 Year Yield topping out?
Reasoning: Head and shoulders top on the hourly chart
Entry Level: 2.842
Take Profit Level: 2.617
Stop Loss: 2.922
Risk/Reward: 2.81:1
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ICARUS , known to most as 2Y-10Y Yield ~ I am nicknaming the 2-10 year yield "Icarus".
Pushing back towards to the sun with haste it would seem .
Kind of interesting how this is off the media radar today .
Oh my wings! See my two wings! How I love to fly!
-The final words between: Icarus, and his father~
Credit - I Thought Inflation? What Are You Scared Of?Idea for US30Y:
- Bond yields dropping rapidly.
- Bonds are being bought up for 1 of 2 reasons:
(1) Investors are afraid and would rather hold negative yielding bonds than other risk assets.
(2) We are experiencing deflation, despite the media blaring inflation.
Reminder:
GLHF
- DPT
trade on bond is very hard bond move very hard ,very complex instrument,FED manipulate it
after 14 year in market advice trade gold GC1! (if you love trendy + market)
if you love zigzag market trade germany index dax FDAX1!
above instrument need min 6 month demo , they have mini and micro contract too
4 powerful buylimit place buylimit 1 is on Ema200 4hour chart
100% put SL under last low
www.marketwatch.com
note=trend is powerful + ,we belive us 10 year yield can reach 2.200 and effect on gold will ease(grow yeild and dollar index cant push gold down, both can go up in future )
for next days(april) we advice looking buy on gold , looking sell on germany index DAX FDAX1! (with sl)
DOUBLE BOTTOM if you see this continue like in the heading we are looking at the united states 10 year or other known as 10 year T note . we have tracked this chart before on the way down as we have seen in the previous GAP now since then we are seeing a market possibly rebounding and heading back to the northside of town follow for your self and make your own charts here on trading view.
ridethepig | US Yields Breaking Higher!So much for the 5th wave... the formulation has truncated after the payrolls report.
This is an example of an erroneous freeing. In similar patterns, the rebound will translate in a 5 wave impulsive sequence which is somewhat cramped after the knee-jerk reaction from covid. The appropriate positional response to the lows here is to ride the pig , what we are talking about is taking measures outguessing the road to normalisation of rates which we have not yet recognised as such.
Now we turn to the analysis of play in unemployment claims, despite how the media are selling business as usual we have a long (and likely sluggish) road to recovery, because of the poor handling of lockdowns and closures.
The one who is playing the macro data always has the upper hand, but this is especially the case once we clear the 'knee-jerk reaction' from the virus. The recurring bankruptcies, layoffs, social unrest and shutdowns have been forgotten about after politicians promising diversions! Smart money will not move so easily. Retail will pay their tribute in the form of horrible losses to an unconditional truth. Vix has completed the round trip, first prize to all those riding it from 85!
Of course the swing from 85 was no less imaginative than the swing from +/- 11 lows:
We are entering into a new development for volatility, my models are forecasting a dramatic expansion into year-end which will make it very difficult for manual or emotional players. 2022/2023 looks like the start of the next bull run in global equities, expectations are for advanced conditions to remain with us for 12-18 months.