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US10

Scary and Unthinkable: Negative Yields are ComingThe US 10 Year and really, yields around the world, have plummeted to levels no one thought was possible. However, the unthinkable has become thinkable. I believe the US 10 year is likely only a week or so from 0.500 and if the Fed cuts rates again this month (as is likely), we could see 0 by the end of the month. The real question though is will the 10 Year stop at around -0.150 or will it continue to fall? Only time will tell, but the near-term target is 0.000. In reality, it is very possible we can overshoot the lower trend-line to a whopping -1.000 or lower if the global economy shows no signs of any sort of stabilization and the virus continues to drag on and worsen. As we move into 2021, yields will likely stabilize and rise, however, this will not be a good thing. Contrary to other recessions and down-turns where the dollar actually rose, in this impending recession, the dollar (DXY) will fall (tank), Gold will go parabolic, and more worrisome, other commodities could eventually spike given the fall of the dollar. That means we could see a surge in inflation eventually, as fiat currencies lose their value as a result of negative rates. We are certainly entering unprecedented territory and investors must hedge against this unprecedented time by investing in Gold. At this present time, the only equities to seek out are high quality dividend stocks with a history of multi-decade dividend hikes. My favourite in this environment are utility stocks, such as Fortis, which has incredibly high stability and a whopping 46+ year dividend hike increase. This is not the time to be dip-searching because equities have still a long way to fall and still trade at 17-18x forward P/E representing still at-least a 10-15% overvalued market. At some point, the SPX will test the 2600s and we all better hope that level holds or we will see panic like we never thought would be possible again. Under no circumstance can equities have a sustained rally (that doesn't fade) until the 10 year hits at-least the +1.000-1.250 level which could months or years away. - zSplit PS: Once the US 10 Year hits 0, there will likely be some sort of massive algorithmic sell-off waiting to pounce; investors should have SLs ready for this.
TVC:US10YShort
by PaulDeep19131
7
AbsurdityMore sideways is highly highly unlikely. Boom or bust! US market cap to GDP 157% (LOL). Perhaps the most ridiculous thing of the last 11 years is when the moving monkeys on CNBC repeat "this time is different". For that to be true, the market should have no problem going to 180% of GDP. Think about that. Good luck. Yields rise, it tightens credit conditions. Equity falls. Yields fall, its a deflationary feedback loop. Equity falls. Good luck everyone. Be careful.
CBOT:ZN1!
by UnknownUnicorn4328351
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At SupportA quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand. The bounce from 1.50% support was widely expected, here noting the key levels for our map: Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32% Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95% What is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y which is where the biggest sharks are found, it is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of the weekly close looking soft and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Remember.. even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At 1.50 Support A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank: In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and volatile positioning. This change of cycle that I have mentioned usually crops up in Vol first: But what is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y, is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of this soft close and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best and thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | US10Y Moving HigherA timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense. We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply after the impressive sizings its time to start paying close attention for early signs of a breakout. While to the downside it would take a break of 1.675 to call for reassessment in the view. Those with a background in fixed income will know alarm bells are ringing louder than usual in bond markets with wages ticking higher than mortgage rates. This is not sustainable and when danger threatens and the crowd does not smell it, don't stand like a sheep, rather run like a deer. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
Bond yields rising, divergence shows a slight 2020 SPX pullbackThe S&P 500 has been on a tear in 2019, rising nearly 30%, from low of the year to high it has surpassed the 30% growth mark. However, there has been a prevalent divergence between bond yields in the US and the SPX, which are correlated to move the same way. This means there could be a convergence in the near future to get back to the "regular" pattern. Over the past few months bond yields have been climbing slightly, but year to date there has been a 23% drop in the 30 year and 31% drop in the 10 year. About the same amount as the S&P has risen. Those bond yields have risen about 15% since September while the S&P 500 has risen exponentially. This means we are expecting a pullback in the S&P 500 since the bond yields have started to do their part and slowly rise. We are not expecting a 30% gain in bond yields, not a 30% drop in the S&P 500 but a moderate move to regularity. Based on the monthly, the S&P 500 could pullback 9.5% to the 2926 level where the impulse for the move higher happened. The volume is extremely weak on all time highs which is another indicator. From there the upside potential is 3500+ based on a Fib extension. If the S&P 500 pulls back we do expect another rise of 15+% ideally in bond yields. This can be contributed to eased tensions between China and the US and a hold on rate cuts from the US Fed.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by TRADEPROAcademy
1
#GOLD Outperforms by farGold is such a haven asset and this chart is showing exactly how the current market is doing so, and the risk appetite isn't so nice compared to Gold! Again, Don't blame the FED! This is because of Donald Trump and his trade war, so don't blame China either. However, the equity market is struggling to keep the prices as high as possible and not pricing in the conflicts, but do not forget, it's a mousetrap for traders like you. Can we do something? This is getting ugly and we have to pull back from this trade war and you know Donald won't do it, so... VOTE BLUE! Learn how to beat the market as Professional Trader with a Prop Trader! Last 5 seats. Be part of an Elite Trading Group. Have a Nice Trading Week! Cream Live Trading, Best Regards!
TVC:SPX
by wildcreamlife
US02Y: Aug 2019 - time to panic?Good afternoon. This is the chart that everybody yelling about. May this year price close below monthly support. Today (Aug 2019) we have a green 9 and doubts. The importance of this level is significant, but first let's compare 1991 vs 1995 vs 2000 vs 2008 vs NOW(2019) You can do it yourself and come to any conclusion you will, but I want you to know that since our last cycle longed for 12 years I believe our next cycle is going to long 12 years as well just like it did in 1991(5Y cycle) and 1995(5Y cycle) with the worst years of recession falling on the 2030's from this point of view. So the worst could be right upon ahead of us and still there is quite significant time we have till this recession and who knows maybe even 2012 was THE lowest low and so something going to change that trend in future since it is a 3rd time in last 3 decades(!) Everything possible. This is not about predicting the future, this is about predicting opportunities that may come in future. Be well, my friend!
TVC:US07Y
by sequentialvzion
US 10 YR - Lower yields to come in 2019 and beyondLooks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;) This is an update to my previous idea: If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines. If you're not. Here's a super simple version. .618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend is higher. However, If .618 fails to hold, it's bearish and the next level of support is .786 followed by 1.0 representing a full retrace with new lower lows possible. So, if the 10 year yield is to "bounce" and start heading higher, it basically has to do it here and now... But that's probably not going to happen this time. Globally, central banks of the world are already loosening. China and Europe leading the way. The US economy is clearly showing signs of slowing. Tariffs, combined with record rain have devastated the Midwest farming region. (Expect higher food prices in 2020). A rising dollar at a time where exports are desired more than ever, etc. Ultimately, i expect the 10 yr yield to test the previous low of 1.32 we saw following the passage of Brexit. And we could get there quick. Next 4-6 months or "before 2020" if that's easier.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward
Support Cracked Wide Open on the US 10YHere we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%. This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as low as 2.088% remains live. Best of luck all those positioning for the week.
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig