US100 Important levels. Long Term!Yo MoTher......
They Planned a Top in 2024
Between 17850 and 19561
Anyway,
Support On this Long term levels is the Yellow Trendline of the STAR.
Horizntal line Support around 11000
21 March 2023 We are trying to Break above 12715 Resistance, Which will Turn into support Later once Closed weekly above it.
Notes:
horizontal lines are Support/Resistance .
Vertical lines are time pivots .
Appreciate your Comments.
GL
Us100
XAUUSD M30 - Sell Signal (trend)XAUUSD M30
As we can see actively, we are trying to break south of the previous area of M15 and M30 consolidation. Depending on how we trade as we settle in to the EURO/LON session, we may look to trade something on a similar basis to this M30 trend. Something similar to that indicated with the red arrows.
M30 LTF trend entries, or $2390/oz major resistance swing entry. It's obviously very early on in the week, and I'd like to see us settle into the week more, before jumping in to anything.
Nasdaq unbeatableCurrent Market Data and Seasonality
Nasdaq closed last week at new highs, indicating strong upward momentum. In terms of macroeconomic data, June's ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 (previously 53.8), below the consensus of 52.5. This signals a weakening in the services sector, which might impact investor sentiment in the short term.
On the other hand, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June came in at 206,000, exceeding the consensus of 190,000 but below the previous reading of 218,000. Despite this, the data positively influenced the market as it brought the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Fed closer. Private sector employment stood at 136,000, below expectations of 160,000, which was interpreted as a sign that the Fed might be more inclined to ease monetary policy.
Seasonal Prospects
We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals.
Risk Pricing and Sentiment
The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 72% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher.
S&P 500 Returns After 20 or More All-Time Highs at Midpoint of the Year
The table shows that the S&P 500 market typically performs well after achieving numerous all-time highs by mid-year. Historically, these years end with positive returns for the full year.
S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at Midpoint of the Year
The data indicates that years with over 10% YTD returns by mid-year often continue positive trends throughout the rest of the year, resulting in significant gains by year-end.
Nonfarm Payrolls and Job Market Data
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000, although revisions for previous months lowered these figures by 111,000. Despite this, the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a strong job market.
AAII Member Sentiment on Stock Market Direction
A significant portion of AAII members are bullish about the market direction over the next 6 months, with bullish sentiment higher than historical averages.
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the Week Beginning July 08, 2024
In the upcoming week, earnings reports from several significant companies, such as PepsiCo, Delta, and JPMorgan Chase, are expected, which may significantly impact market sentiment.
S&P 500 Earnings Growth for Calendar Year 2025
Projections indicate the highest earnings growth in the information technology and healthcare sectors, with more moderate growth in other sectors such as real estate and consumer staples.
Growth in Disposable Income and Compensation vs. Inflation
The growth in disposable income and compensation exceeds inflation, indicating increased purchasing power for consumers.
Consumer Spending Trends
Consumer spending is rising steadily and remains above trend despite economic fluctuations.
S&P 500 vs. Rising 10-Year Treasury Yield Strategy
The current situation indicates stability in the bond market and continued growth in the S&P 500 index. The lack of a signal to switch to cash suggests that the stock market is in good condition, allowing investors to benefit from the rising market while monitoring bond yields for future warning signals.
Key Economic Events in the Coming Week
Next week, several key economic events are expected, which could influence the markets:
Current market conditions suggest further potential gains for Nasdaq. Despite some concerns about the labor market, overall sentiment, seasonal support, and technical indicators point to a continuation of the upward trend. It will be essential to monitor further macroeconomic data and Fed decisions, which will be crucial for future market movements.
Nasdaq ready to rally higherNasdaq ready to rally higher
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq index closed its session with a 1% increase, drawing significant attention from investors worldwide. This optimistic outcome was largely driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose speech was notably dovish and full of optimism about the current economic situation. Here are some of his key statements:
Fed's Powell: "The disinflation trend shows signs of resuming."
"The data represents significant progress."
"If the labor market unexpectedly weakens, that would also cause us to react."
"The risks are becoming much more balanced."
"Inflation may get back to 2% late next year or the following year."
These remarks have provided a significant boost to the markets, fueling further growth. Moreover, we are entering the best period of the year in terms of returns on American indices, which statistically averages over 2% in July during bull markets.
Statistical Analysis: Bullish Market Signals
Below, we present several statistical data points that confirm the bullish nature of the current markets:
Economic Growth: The growth rates are at very satisfactory levels, contributing to overall market optimism.
Retail Positioning: Retail investors are currently 67% positioned for a decline, which is actually a positive signal for continued market growth. When a large portion of the market bets on a decline, it often sets the stage for a contrarian upward movement.
Job Openings: The JOLTs Job Openings for May came in at 8.14 million, surpassing the expected 7.91 million. This indicates a robust labor market and strong economic activity.
Interest Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 61.5%. This expectation of lower borrowing costs is another factor that has fueled the recent market rally.
Tomorrow, we await critical data releases, including the ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC Minutes, which are expected to further reinforce Powell’s bullish stance.
In conclusion, the current market conditions, coupled with optimistic statements from key policymakers, suggest a positive outlook for the Nasdaq index. The statistical data and upcoming economic reports will be crucial in confirming this trend. As we move forward, staying informed and attentive to these developments will be essential for making well-informed investment decisions. The market is showing signs of strength, and with the right insights, investors can navigate this landscape effectively.
NAS100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea US100👉🔍 In this video, we analyze the NAS100 index. It's evident that the NASDAQ has been showing strong upward momentum in a bullish trend. However, considering today is Friday, I anticipate a potentially sharp retracement with the US100. My strategy involves monitoring the 15-minute chart for signs of sideways movement and a potential reversal, which could present a selling opportunity targeting the previous swing low.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before considering any buying or selling decisions, as elaborated in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential. 📈🔔
US100 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
🔍 Identifying Key Levels
The chart highlights several key levels:
Previous Week High (PWH)
Previous Week Low (PWL)
Previous Month High (PMH)
Previous Day Low (PDL)
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Buy Side Liquidity (BSL)
📈 Current Price Action
The price has recently broken above the Previous Week High (PWH) and the Previous Month High (PMH). It has also taken out the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL), indicating that significant buy orders have been filled, which may lead to a reversal or retracement .
🔻 Potential Short Scenario
Given that the price is currently in a premium zone after taking out the BSL, a retracement lower is likely. Key levels to watch for a potential short scenario include:
PDL (Previous Day Low): The price could retrace towards this level, which may act as support.
PWL (Previous Week Low): This level is also significant and could act as a target for the retracement.
FVG: The Fair Value Gap below the current price may attract the price to fill this gap, leading to a further move down.
📉 Long Scenario Considerations
For a long scenario, we need the price to react positively at key support levels. Confirmation for long positions can be found by observing the lower time frames (LTF) for:
Low Resistance SSL: Watching for lower resistance sell-side liquidity being taken in lower time frames can indicate a possible shift towards bullish momentum.
🔎 Lower Time Frame Confirmation
SSL (Sell Side Liquidity): In lower time frames, observing the price action around these SSL levels can provide clues for potential long entries. If the price takes out these SSL levels and reclaims them, it can indicate a buying opportunity targeting higher levels such as the previous highs or the FVG above.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary
Current Price at Premium Zone: After taking out BSL and PMH, a retracement is expected.
Key Levels Above Price: The price is currently above PWH and PMH, indicating it is in a premium zone.
Key Levels Below Price: PDL, PWL, and FVG are potential targets for a retracement.
FVG: This gap below the current price is an area of interest for a potential retracement.
By considering these key levels and market behaviors, traders can better prepare for potential scenarios, whether the market continues higher or retraces to lower levels.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nasdaq thoughts- 05-JUL-2024Looking for opportunity to go Lond on Nasdaq, but we'll see what the market give us, we have zones where we will consider selling but only if price prints in a way that makes us to that.
NASDAQ - Expect retracement !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on US100.
Technical analysis: Here we have the same scenario as on S&P500, expect price to make a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block to open a long position.
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Bullish Rally Continues
I see one more bullish pattern on US100 index.
This time it is the ascending triangle formation.
The price successfully violated its neckline and closed above that.
It is a strong bullish trend-following pattern.
With a high probability, growth will continue.
Next resistance - 20500
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Nasdaq thoughts - 04-JUL-2024Nasdaq is still on a very strong bull run. Lots of pips were achieved yesterday. However, while we are looking for more buy positions, we are looking to take advantage of a possible pull back. Ensure to stay patient and wait for candles to print.
US30 - 15m Scalp on DowJonesUS30 presents a sell opportunity. The price has just broken below the support zone at 39,300, indicating a potential for further downside. Keep an eye on this level for potential entries.
NASDAQ Nothing to stop this uptrend. Next stop 21300.Time to update our Nasdaq (NDX) thesis from 2 weeks ago (June 20, see chart below), where we called for a pull-back and then a buy on a 20700 Target:
As you can see we got the short-term correction within the (dotted) Channel Up and the index resumed the long-term uptrend of the 8-month (blue) Channel Up. Supported by both the 4H MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect this uptrend to be extended in a similar way as the January 2024 post 4H MA200 correction rebound.
That sequence completed a +25.78% from the October 2023 bottom, before pulling back near the 4H MA200 again. As a result, we upgrade our Target to 21300, closer to the top of the long-term Channel Up. See also how symmetrical the 1D MACD fractals are between the 2 sequences. We should now be expecting a Bullish Cross, to confirm this Leg's continuation.
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NASDAQ Time for a Correction?NASDAQ Time for a Correction?
The recent events in the financial markets have highlighted growing uncertainty and the potential for a correction in the NASDAQ. A thorough analysis of both fundamental and sentimental factors provides valuable insights for investors looking to make informed decisions.
Technical Overview
This past week, NASDAQ failed to surpass its recent peak, marking a significant technical signal. There is a strong divergence appearing on technical analysis indicators such as RSI and MACD, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
Macroeconomic Events
The upcoming week is set to bring several key events that could significantly impact the markets:
Tuesday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. Recent statements from Fed officials hint that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, potentially leading to further pressure on interest rate hikes.
Wednesday: The release of the ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC Minutes. These reports could set the tone for the markets in the coming weeks, offering insights into future monetary policy directions.
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls data, eagerly awaited by the market. The results could influence short-term economic expectations and future Fed decisions.
Seasonality and Sentiment
We are entering a period of seasonal stagnation and potential correction, which is typical in a U.S. election year. Market seasonality often affects investor behavior, leading to greater caution and reduced activity.
COT Report and Market Sentiment
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that 47.12% of funds hold short positions on NASDAQ, suggesting a bearish outlook among major market players. Additionally, retail sentiment is also negative, with around 60% in short positions. To avoid being on the wrong side of market sentiment, it would be preferable for this sentiment to drop to lower levels.
The current situation on NASDAQ is fraught with uncertainty and potential challenges. Technical signals are warning of a possible correction, and upcoming macroeconomic events could bring further changes. Seasonality and market sentiment also indicate potential difficulties. Investors should remain cautious and be prepared to adjust their strategies quickly in response to evolving conditions.
Nasdaq thoughts 02-JUL-2024Here is what I am looking at regarding Nasdaq. Hoping to find an opportunity for entry when the candle prints. Please do not blindly follow what I saw, make sure you look into it properly for yourself.
US100 / LONG TRADE SIGNAL Hello Traders!
This is my long trade setup on US100. The price is poised for a bullish move towards the supply level at 19600. I see a strong reaction from the demand zone and a bullish candle confirmation. This confluence signals a compelling opportunity for traders to capitalize on potential upward momentum.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
Also, share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free, and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
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US30 - 15m Buy scalpThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) is currently on an upward trajectory, showing strong bullish momentum on the 15-minute chart. As it continues to rise, it is approaching a key resistance zone that has previously served as a turning point. Traders should watch this level closely, as the price may test and react to this resistance, potentially leading to a breakout or a consolidation phase. This anticipated rise towards the resistance zone signals a pivotal moment for US30's short-term direction, providing opportunities for strategic entries and exits based on price action around this area.
NASDAQ Literally nothing to stop this long-term rally.Earlier this month (June 07, see chart below), we explained why we were very bullish long-term on Nasdaq (NDX) using the 1W time-frame:
The price rose from 19000 to 19750 since and there is literally no technical sign of stopping this tremendous rally yet. In fact, today we bring you another approach, this time on the 2M time-frame.
As you can see, since November 2023, the index is past a Bullish Cross on the 2M LMACD. Since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we have witnessed this signal only 3 times. In fact, despite the presence of a relentless 14-year Channel Up, the most recent LMACD Bullish Cross resembles more the first one on November 2009.
Even though the 2022 Inflation Crisis wasn't the same as the 2008 Housing Crisis, it is the strongest we saw since then. The chart clearly shows that 2-year Channel Up (blue)/ Bullish Legs have been the vessels of upward continuation within the 14-year Channel, while at the same time +135% rises have been quite common.
As a result, before the current rally takes a breather, we can expect to see as high as even 24500 (+135% from the November 2022 bottom).
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Nasdaq thoughts for 27-06-2024Here is my Nasda plan for today, we hoping for a good buy opportunity and sell if the opportunity arises, it is all about opportunities.
US100 ( NASDAQ ) Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
📊 Let's Discuss NASDAQ
Let's discuss my favorite asset, NASDAQ. The first thing we need to consider is the Smart Money Technique (SMT) which appeared on the ES (S&P500) chart yesterday, and now reflects on the NASDAQ chart. This technique is currently positioned below the chart.
📈 Anticipating Price Expansion
We can anticipate the price to expand higher into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) resting above the current price, potentially reacting to the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) levels.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
In our key level area, we have the Midnight Open Price (00:00 NY Time) at 19691.5. Currently, the price is above this midnight open level, indicating a deep premium level, which supports our short scenario.
🔑 Liquidity Levels
At the start of the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) we have both the 4-hour previous high, which is a buy-side liquidity (BSL), and a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). These are the key liquidity levels to watch.
📉 Long Position Scenarios
For any long position scenarios, we need the sell-side liquidity to be taken out, which is quite far from the current price. We can look for lower time frame low resistance liquidity or the 50% retracement of the current range, resting at 19633.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
SELL Position on US100 - R/R: 1/2Guys,
A sell position on US100 with R/R: 1/2
Important Note: Always keep your risk below 1% in any position and situation in the market.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Your Trading Plan For Today
Dow Jones Index is testing, a recently broken
key daily resistance.
With a high probability, the broken structure turned into support.
Our confirmation to buy will be a bullish breakout
of a neckline of an ascending triangle formation on 1H time frame.
Hourly candle close above 39185 will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 39325.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Nasdaq thoughts for todayNasdaq had another pull back yesterday, we are looking for opportunities to either buy or sell today. Feel free to ask questions about my thoughts, I thnk I share it simple enough
Gold for todayGood morning good people, sharing with you what I am looking at in regards to Gold, also leave a comment or DM in regards to the youtube matter mentioned in previous trade
