NASDAQ How to trade this Falling Wedge.Nasdaq is trading inside a Falling Wedge for exactly 1 month, since the December 16th 2024 High.
The current bullish wave has been rejected on its top but today is holding the MA50 (4h) so far.
The previous bearish waves that got rejected on the Wedge's top, gave a confirmed sell signal after the MA50 (4h) was crossed.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell below the MA50 (4h) and Channel Up (bullish wave).
2. Buy above the top (Falling Resistance) of the Falling Wedge.
Targets:
1. 20600 (symmetric higher lows trendline like January 2nd).
2. 21700 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading above its MA trendline. This favors slightly the bullish trend.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Us100
! REALLY NOT SURE ABOUT THIS ONE ! GBPJPY FALLINGSince there are no indicators except for the RSI, it would seem logical with the current drawdown and divergence for the price to keep falling ;
however there's nothing sure about this, it is just an arrow showing the potential direction,
we'll update if we get more info
AUDJPY GOING DOWNWe almost had the first part (you can take a look at the blue arrow on the 3rd of January), and it indeed reached the exact price we wanted it to (red dotted line)
However it has come back up since then, which shows that there's still a high buying volume for this asset.
But at some point, it is to come down and break the first red to reach the second lower red.
We made two possibilities for you to get the scheme.
EURUSD GOING UPLow RSI + two consecutive accumulation areas means EURUSD going up ;
however the question is after this small rally, what s happening ?
That s the 1000$ question, the two yellow lines you see on the chart show that none of these schemes is more likely than the other one, we simply have no idea for now.
We'll have to wait for new elements and KL to determine that.
USDCHF TOWARDS THE SKYThere's not a lot of indications for this one, since there's no accumulation to reach.
However the low and divergent RSI gives us an idea of where the price is globally going, which is up.
Will add more information asap, when a new interesting KL or AA (accumulation area) gets created.
CHFJPY STILL NOT SUREOn one hand, it has de go back up to reach the high of the blue rectangle ;
on the other hand, it is well gone for a big descent, and it would not be crazy to think the hard blue KL is the actual low.
We'll have to be careful over the next few days because they'll be decisive regarding the pattern the curb is taking.
No matter what happens, it is to go up, the question is where s the entry ?
GBPUSD BACK UPAfter a liquidation by going that low, GBPUSD is ready to go back up.
The two blue accumulation areas attract the price higher, first at the middle zone then at the higher zone.
The hard blue KL under the current price shows a break under this level is tough to imagine, so there's really only one way and it is up.
GOLD MICRO ANALYSISAnd this is what the micro view looks like. If you've not seen our precedent post on the macro view, you should check it out so you get the global scheme of the move.
The red line has to be reached at some point over the next few weeks, maybe even days, because Gold has a "desert area" to cross : this is the area where there's no blue lines, which are basic KL.
What we believe is that when there 's no or not enought KL, the price moves way faster, hence the green drawing.
NASDAQ GOING UPAfter a some fake rallies, some fails and some real good forecasts, we're back with more energy and more confidence to try and offer you all the best signals.
The red dotted line that you see at the top is the price we're aiming for. As you can see yesterday's forecast (green drawing) was a little late but eventually pretty good.
We believe that US100 has to climb back to 22K asap to compensate for the US firms on a national level, and to compensate with the blue areas on the chart on a technical levels, which are super key levels supposed to hit again.
Anything is possible at and after 2:30 PM (London time), but keep in mind that there are more prices to reach above than below
US100 NASDAQ SHORTThe US dollar is broadly firmer, though the Japanese yen is proving a resilient ahead of the BOJ deputy governor's speech
Nasdaq slide as key tech stocks get hit
All three benchmarks are down for the last two weeks, with tech shares causing most of the damage
With the 10-year yield potentially getting to 5%, it’s going to be very hard for the equity market to really gain any meaningful traction here until there’s — at minimum — stability in interest rates
Interest rates rise? iN 2025 it will be possible:Inflation, signs of recession.
US100 Trade LogUS100 has reached the daily FVG , providing a short setup at the 0.5 level with at least "1:2 RRR" and 1% risk.
Any fill above the midpoint is ideal, aiming for a correction into the weekly Kijun .
Recent Fed hawkishness, softening global growth, and tightening liquidity support a downside move. Stops go just above the FVG high; ride the drop toward weekly support.
NAS100USD: Anticipating Bullish Shift in Range-Bound MarketGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe price consolidating within a range. While the overall sentiment remains bearish, I anticipate a bullish reversal aligning with projections from yesterday's analysis.
Key Observations
Discount Price Accumulation:
Price is currently trading at discount levels where institutions have consistently targeted sell stops. These stops are being order-paired (bought against), signaling institutional accumulation in preparation for a move toward premium prices.
Engineered Liquidity Above Resistance:
The Resistance Zone has been identified as Engineered Liquidity, where buy stops (stop losses, pending orders, etc.) reside. This liquidity pool is a prime target for institutions to sell off their positions against willing buyers.
Institutional Profit Targets:
Institutions that accumulate long positions at discounted levels will look to book profits in premium zones, aligning with our strategy to target liquidity pools above the current resistance.
Trading Strategy
Entry Zones:
Focus on buying opportunities at key institutional support levels in the current range, awaiting confirmation of bullish price action.
Targets:
The primary objective is the liquidity pool above the Resistance Zone, as institutions are likely to drive price into this area for profit-taking.
For further insights into the rationale behind this bullish bias, refer to yesterday’s detailed analysis.
Yesterdays Analysis:
Stay vigilant and patient for confirmation before executing trades and make sure to do your own research before investing.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NASDAQ: First 4H Death Cross since September is a Buy Signal!Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.062, MACD = -70.200, ADX = 29.762) as it is on a downtrend since December 16th, almost 1 month. Technically this downtrend is the bearish wave of the medium term Channel Up. Last Wednesday the index formed its first 4H Death Cross since September 10th 2024 and interestingly enough, instead of bullish, it was a buy signal then. As the current bearish wave is now almost at the bottom of the Channel Up, this is technically a HL, thus the most efficient buy entry on the short term. The September bullish wave peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension before a pullback under the 4H MA50 again, so we now turn bullish on Nasdaq, aiming again for the 1.236 Fib (TP = 22,500).
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NAS 100 Counter-Trend Opportunity: Possible Bounce from Support 📊 The NAS 100 looks overextended right now. It’s tapped into a key liquidity pool support zone, and I’m eyeing a potential counter-trend trade back up to equilibrium. ⚖️ After that, we could see another sell opportunity if the price action aligns. 🚨 *This is not financial advice.*
NAS100USD: Are We Witnessing the Start of a Bullish Takeover?Greetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the overall trend remains bearish; however, compelling signs suggest a potential shift toward bullish price action. Here are the key confluences supporting this outlook:
Key Observations:
1. Higher Highs Established:
Recent price action has formed higher highs, indicating a potential shift from breaking bearish structure to targeting bullish objectives.
2. Transition to Buy-Side Curve:
Significant structural breaks suggest a move away from the sell-side curve into the buy-side curve. This transition redefines key bullish order blocks created during the sell-side curve as reclaimed order blocks, now acting as strong institutional support zones.
Reclaimed Order Blocks Explained:
These occur when bullish order blocks, previously hedged during sell-side curve are reclaimed by institutions. The down candles within these zones signal areas where institutions are likely to initiate new buying opportunities.
Trading Strategy:
Entry Zones:
Look for buying opportunities within reclaimed order blocks, which now function as robust institutional support zones.
Targets:
Focus on liquidity pools located at key highs, double tops, or failure swings. These areas serve as institutional profit-taking zones where buy stops reside, offering favorable order pairing opportunities.
By aligning with institutional behavior and following the transition to the buy-side curve, we can strategically capitalize on potential bullish momentum. Stay vigilant and await confirmation before entering trades.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
NASDAQ One more low to go.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down since the December 16 2024 High. So far it has made two Lows and each one bottomed after the 4H RSI made Double Bottom as seen on the chart.
Right now the 4H RSI just turned oversold below 30.00, so technically we still have room for one last Low before we see a rebound. We expect the next Bullish Leg to target at least 21300, which is marginally below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, the level that formed the previous two Lower Highs of the Channel Down.
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NASDAQ (US100): Bullish Momentum Poised for New HighsThe NASDAQ (US100) continues to display strong bullish momentum, having recently broken above its previous higher high. The price has since retraced to test this level as support, aligning with the structure of a proposed ascending channel. With no bearish signals currently evident, the index shows potential to establish a new high.
*Trade responsibly and implement proper risk management strategies.
nvdia still in strong uptrendHello
NVdia still has a good uptrend, so as it is shown on my chart now we are in the middle of its 3rd wave what should we look for:
- A nice break out of its hight level (around 160) then we can buy more
- be aware if the red line is broken then we can consider that is a beginning of reversing down
good luck
NAS100USD: Bullish Reversal on the Horizon?Greetings Traders, and welcome to the new year! I wish you all success and prosperity in the year ahead.
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe that the market has been delivering bearish institutional order flow, influenced by high-impact economic releases such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. Despite this bearish momentum, I am anticipating a potential bullish reversal due to several key factors.
Key Observations:
1. Rejection Block Signal:
A rejection block at the lows indicates that institutions have been entering buying positions. This resulted in a rejection of the previous low, signaling bearish weakness and suggesting the possibility of a reversal.
2. Bullish Break of Structure:
Price recently broke a high during its upward movement, signaling bullish strength. This shift suggests that institutions may now be favoring upward price delivery.
3. Mitigation Block as a Key Zone:
Price is currently reversing toward a key institutional area known as the mitigation block.
What is a Mitigation Block?
This zone represents an area where institutions previously entered sell orders during the bearish trend. As price has since moved upward, these sell orders are now in loss. Institutions retrace price to this area to mitigate their losses and reinstate new buy orders to align with the prevailing bullish narrative.
These zones are pivotal and form the basis of support and resistance concepts.
Trading Strategy:
After confirmation, I will be looking for buying opportunities at the mitigation block, targeting the liquidity pool above. This aligns with the narrative that institutions are scaling into bullish positions and preparing for upward price delivery.
Stay observant and strategic as we analyze this potential shift in market structure. Feel free to share your thoughts or questions in the comments below, and let’s capitalize on the opportunities ahead!
Kind Regards,
The Architect