NASDAQ (1h) Golden Cross broke above the 3 week downtrend.Nasdaq has formed a Golden Cross on the (1h) time frame while also crossing above the Falling Resistance of the last 3 weeks.
This is a bullish reversal break out.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 20370 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the last high).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) as already been on a Rising Support, hence bullish divergence since yesterday.
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Us100
USTEC - Short-Term Pain, but...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈Long-term, USTEC has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in orange.
This month, USTEC has been in a correction phase, retesting the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong support zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower orange trendlines acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #USTEC is hovering around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NASDAQ: Oversold at the bottom of 8month Channel Up.Nasdaq is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 26.693, MACD = -501.840, ADX = 53.670), which is the most oversold 1D RSI reading since August 15th 2015. In the meantime, it touched the HL bottom of the 8month Channel Up, a bearish wave that looks much like July 2025. The bullish wave that followed topped on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. If candle closings are contained inside the Channel Up, we expect it to attract a lot of new buyers and initiate the new bullish wave to at least the same Fib. Long trade, TP = 23,400. A closing under the Channel Up, should test though the 1W MA100 (TP = 18,000).
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Intraday Update: Indices may be ready for the SMT reversal👀 Clearly we have a bullish reversal from the clearing of a previous daily imbalance range. Of course we expect NAS to get a head start on achieving it's buyside targets and that's just what we get on today.
🧼 Clean buyside ideas happening although we are technically still bearish on the daily until we get a higher close over a previous daily block. This is fine, it just means we will still see heavy bearish flow above lower time frame highs until then no sweat!
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S&P500 INDEX (US500): More Down
With a confirmed bearish breakout of a key daily horizontal support,
US500 index opens a potential for more drop.
Next key support is 5425.
It looks like the market is going to reach that soon.
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Short-Term Opportunity in NAS100: Rebound in Play?Since reaching its all-time high (ATH) three weeks ago, NAS100 has dropped approximately 3,000 pips, hitting a low near the 19,000 zone yesterday.
Currently, the CFD price is rebounding, and this recovery could extend into the New York trading session.
Although my overall correction target remains around 18,000, I anticipate a short-term relief rally at this stage.
From a short-term trading perspective, the 19,000 level could present a good entry opportunity. With a tight stop and a target slightly above 20,000, this setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
NAS 100 Overextended – Brace for a Pullback! The NAS 100 is looking highly overextended at the moment 📊. Market conditions are precarious, with many instruments trading into key support and resistance levels on both the daily and weekly timeframes ⏳.
A sharp pullback 📉 could be on the horizon, potentially offering a counter-trend buying opportunity on the lower timeframes for the US 100 💰. If it pushes higher, it may set up a potential short trade 🎯.
🚨 Not financial advice – trade wisely and manage your risk! ⚖️
NASDAQ below its 1W MA50 after 2 years. Doom or recovery ahead??Nasdaq (NDX) broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years (since week of March 13 2023). That is a strong long-term Support, in fact it is technically the first level to look for during cyclical bull trends. So how bad can a break and/or 1W candle closing below it?
As you can see on this multi-year chart on the 1W time-frame, since the 2008 Housing Crisis, the index has had a number of breaks below its 1W MA50. With the exception of the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a cyclical Bear Market like 2008, all of those breaks were short-lived and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) almost instantly.
In fact, the current technical pull-back resembles the June - August 2011 correction, which after breaking below the 1W MA50, it found support and rebounded on the 1W MA100 in 2 weeks. The rebound that followed rose by +38% in 7 months. If a similar development is followed, which is what we expect, we are looking at a potential end-of-year rally to 24900. This also took place on the 2019 rally.
What makes this 17-year recurring pattern even more interesting is that technical pull-backs such as the current, tend to take place when the 1W RSI Channel Down, a technical Bearish Divergence) hits 40.00 and makes a Lower Low (green circles).
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Will the stock market turn positive again?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the resistance range and the channel ceiling will also cause the Nasdaq to continue its short-term upward trend.
In February 2025, the U.S. labor market grew at a slower pace than anticipated. According to published data, non-farm employment increased by 151,000 jobs in January, while expectations were set at 160,000.This indicates that while job growth continues, its momentum has been weaker than projected.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in February, slightly above the expected 4%. Meanwhile, labor force participation declined by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% during the month, aligning with forecasts. On an annual basis, wage growth reached 4%, slightly below the estimated 4.1%.
Among various sectors, the highest job gains were recorded in healthcare (52,000 jobs), finance (21,000 jobs), and local government (20,000 jobs). Employment also rose in construction, transportation, social assistance, and manufacturing.
Conversely, some industries experienced job losses. The hospitality sector shed 16,000 jobs, retail lost 6,000, and the federal government reduced employment by 10,000 positions. Additionally, temporary jobs declined by 12,000, signaling a potential slowdown in economic growth.
Overall, the report suggests that while the U.S. labor market remains stable, certain indicators, such as rising unemployment and a decline in full-time jobs, may point to a deceleration in economic expansion. Following the report’s release, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly, but the market reaction was muted due to prior concerns over a more significant decline.
Hassett, the White House economic advisor, stated that future reports are likely to show further reductions in government employment. He emphasized the administration’s plan to cut government jobs and spending while boosting employment in the manufacturing sector. He also confirmed that tariffs are inevitable, arguing that such measures will support the expected 3% to 4% economic growth. Hassett expressed doubt that President Trump would grant exemptions for steel tariffs.
As investors try to adjust to Trump’s evolving trade policies, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February is set to be released on Wednesday. Given the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data from January, it is possible that CPI could be entering a new downward trend.
The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation remains challenging, and the recent rise in price pressures has undoubtedly been frustrating for policymakers. However, signs indicate that U.S. inflation may be shifting course, with expectations of a decline in the coming months.
One major uncertainty remains: tariffs. Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 20% increase on Chinese goods, along with additional sector-specific and retaliatory tariffs still under discussion, could undermine the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation down to 2%.
In January, the overall CPI climbed to 3%, marking its highest level since June 2024. Core inflation also reached 3.3%. However, February’s data is expected to ease months of concern about inflationary resurgence, with projections indicating a decline in overall CPI to 2.9% and core inflation to 3.1%. Monthly estimates for both indices stand at 0.3%.
Later in the week, Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for February will provide further insights into inflationary pressures, while on Friday, investors will closely monitor the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for March. Last month’s survey raised alarms, as consumer inflation expectations climbed to their highest level in 30 years.
NASDAQ Potential Bullish Retracement (After Major Correction)NASDAQ price seems to exhibit signs of a major correction as the price action has broken out of it's range.
During the pandemic (Covid-19), NASDAQ experienced two major corrections (worth drops of approx. 18.35% and approx. 24%). Counting these two massive corrections as anomalies, the NASDAQ on average retraces maximum around approx. 17% - 18.5% from a historical perspective.
Once the selling subsides we may potentially see the formation of a credible Higher Low on the Longer Timeframes with multiple confluences from key Fibonacci and Support levels.
The current Trade Plan caters to a drop of approx. 22.5% (to be on the safer side and potentially accounts for a major correction excluding massive systematic failure).
Trade Plan :
Entry @ 19250
Stop Loss @ 17140
TP 1 @ 21360 (Before All Time High)
TP 2 @ 23470 (After All Time High)
Note: Move Stop Loss to Break Even if TP 1 hits.
NASDAQ Ultimate Support test on the 1week MA50.Nasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Channel Up since the start of this Bull Cycle after the late 2022 bottom.
The price is about to test the 1week MA50, which is the ultimate Support of this bullish trend and has been holding since March 13 2023 (almost 2 years).
It is important for the index to keep a weekly closing over it. If it does we will have the most optimal buy entry case.
The previous two bullish waves interestingly enough both increased by +49.55%.
Buy and target 25500.
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NASDAQ: 4H Death Cross always signals a rally.Nasdaq in bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.073, MACD = -289.260, ADX = 41.209) as the mid February bearish wave hit the bottom of the September Channel Up. The formation of a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe has favored buying inside this pattern. In the meantime, the 4H RSI has been rising while the price was correcting, indicating the presence of a Bullish Divergence. Buy and aim for another +16% rise (TP = 23,200).
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NASDAQ hit its 1D MA200. Strongest buy signal in 2 years!Nasdaq (NDX) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 7 months (since the August 05 2024 Low) with its 1D RSI almost oversold (below 30.00). In the past 2 years (since the March 10 2023 test), the 1D MA200 has been tested another 3 times, all of which have been the absolute technical buy entries, kick-starting enormous rallies.
On top of that, the price is close to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up that started on the December 2022 market bottom. Every rally that followed after a 1D MA200 test has been marginally weaker than the previous but all three have been around +30% on average. The last one has been +27.61%, which is -3% weaker than the previous.
As a result, we are expecting a new rally to start now as all buy conditions within a 2-year span have been met (1D MA200, oversold 1D RSI) that can target 24500, which represents a +24.00% rally (-3% shorter rise than the previous).
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