sharp fall is expected in global marketI analyzed s&P500 index today but it includes all of global markets.
dollar index's power is gaining strongly.
Biden's economic strategy with china seems not working well and USA and China's bond are too tight since 2008 financial crisis. the second possible Lehman brother's crash is on the way.
I don't know which banks will lead the crash but this time it will be wider and wild.
MACD is getting weaker and Russia's sharpy raising interest 350bp hikes is also the issue.
The too much unsolved disasters are on the way which is not good for all traders.
Higher high, the Lower low.
Us100
US30 H1 - Short SignalUS30 H1
Lots of opportunity here on US30 over the last few days, we are really pushing that extreme resistance price and all time high of 37800. And then seeing some aggressive rejections, forming this healthy 300 point from from circa 37750 to 37450.
I still anticipate a bearish breakout. This would be really healthy and attractive for us, if we break 37,000, there are 1000’s of points up for grabs and some huge profit potential.
NASDAQ Post Cup & Handle rally in motion. There'll be pullbacks.Nasdaq (NDX) has completed a giant Cup & Handle pattern and since the late October 2023 bottom, it has started the post Handle rally. This rally historically tends to be a very long-term one but with its fair share of corrections to at least the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you know 2022 was the year of the Inflation Crisis (left side of the Cup) while 2023 was its recovery (right side of Cup). Going back to the 2 most recent Bear Cycles, the 2008 Housing Crisis and 2002 Dotcom Crisis, we can observe similar Cup & Handle patterns, with identical 1W RSI sequences (oversold on their bottom and starting a Channel Down when the Handle begins).
The rally that followed after the Handle in 2011 and 2005 started another pull-back to the 1W MA50 (ellipse) just a few months after when the 1W RSI hit the top of its Channel Down. The chart shows that we might be in a similar situation right now. As a result, long-term investors may seek an additional buy entry as close to the 1W MA50 as possible like the late October bottom.
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US100 - LONG OPPORTUNITY / BREAKOUT 🚀💰CAPITALCOM:US100 - LONG OPPORTUNITY / BREAKOUT
Fundamental: Nasdaq is currently up leading into earnings. Expecting continued growth and a lower PPI data result which will benefit the continued growth of the Nasdaq.
Technical Analysis: Market is currently ranging/consolidating on the shorter timeframe until PPI data drops. This is expected on big new releases.
Trend: Market is currently on a continued up-trend looking to make higher highs. Only long trades are valid.
Strategy: Waiting for PPI data to drop before entering for breakout trade on the 3/5 minute timeframe to the long side. Stop loss just below previous low within the range. Risking 1% of the account size.
Let me know if you agree and what your expectations are for the day. 🚀💰
US100 H4 / LONG TRADE OPPORTUNITY 📈 ✅Hello Traders!
This is my idea on US100 H4. I see a perfect retracement from the resistance level marked on the chart. I consider this a good sign of a small retracement.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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NASDAQ (NEW UPDATES) Bonds DOWN RATE CUT PROBABILITY RISINGCAPITALCOM:US100
trend bullish
profit takingg
PMI below expectations
dollar up Warconflict tensions between US and IRAN8+houthiesrebels Red sea increasing):
MARKET WAITING FOR fomc MINUTES
5th Januayr most important day of this year!!!!!
November US Construction Spending Up 0.4%
Construction spending during November 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,050.1 billion, 0.4% above the revised October estimate of $2,042.5 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The November figure is 11.3% above the November 2022 estimate of $1,842.2 billion. During the first eleven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,817.1 billion, 6.2% above the $1,711.1 billion for the same period in 2022. Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,595.0 billion, 0.7% above the revised October estimate of $1,584.4 billion.
US manufacturing performance declines at sharper pace as demand conditions weaken
The US manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction during December, according to the latest PMI® survey data from S&P Global, as output returned to decline and the downturn in new orders gathered pace. Lower total new sales reflected weakness in both domestic and external demand conditions, with firms adjusting down their input buying and hiring activity accordingly. Signs of greater spare capacity were seen through a faster fall in backlogs and destocking, with firms also seeking to better manage cashflow.
The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the trend to post minor gains against the greenback. The Chinese yuan is off by about 0.5% for its biggest loss in at least six months.
US100 ENTRIES FOR SHORT,Longs All Trap Zones for 5th Jan.2023This analysis is only for my honorable followers.
Click on the chart above
and study it closely, before taking any trade today: Ofcourse if you want to win.
I will buy if these conditions hit. if one of them do not hit, the bulls will get trapped hard
30 min close above 16425
US DATA TODAY VERY STRONG for nasdaq,gold, etc
but negative for the U DOLLAR
and if retracment after 30 minute closing
firm above 16425
My first target will be 16820
Here I will solve out my short hedge that I have opened
at 16853, and take Profit. But I will add more longs too,
and all longs that are active,but hedged will run along
SELL CONDITIONS: I would ell US100 ONLY and ONLY, if these conditions met. Otherwise the downward move will be a bear trap
16275: I would open a short , below this price only
if:
1. it reache 16244 or 16223
2.I will wait for a pullback to 16275
3. if it cannot break above that level,
t hen I would open the short.
Profit levels are as lower mentioned.
At 15939 we have 0,382 Fibonacci of Hourly and higher
Time frame(that is very strong support level no. 2)
TRAP ZONE 1
THE OPEN PRICE TODAY
is below yesterdays range, but
it is not rejected
tHIS IS AN INDICATION THAT the market is
accepting the lower price, and the sentiment ha not been changed
Both bulls and bear will get trapped very often in this range
16356-16416
TRAP ZONE
BULLS got trapped
in this zone twice this week
I will AVOID TO ENTER THIS ZONE AND
GETTING TRAPPED
BETTER: I WILL WAIT
If You are Gold Digger and speculate
to take some pips
your Risk Reward ratio will be high(Higher RISK THAN REWARD)
As at this point the market quickly changes sentiments
Follow the price The trend is your friendCut losse quickly, Let the profits run. Dont predict the market. Intelligent traders follow these principals only.
Nsadaq Bullish, Breakthrough only if Dollar and Bonds bearishNASDAQ TREN CHANGE
52W BULLISH49-51W BULLIH
30W BULLISH
1-20W BULLIH
Also complete green signs on lower Timefame.
CPI DATA far below expectations, that dropped US Dollar and Bonds down, while pushing up NDX
Core CPI m/m
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
USD
CPI m/m
0.0%
0.1%
0.4%
USD
CPI y/y
3.2%
3.3%
3.7%
The inking Dollar Periode is starting now, DXY dropped -1% while the treasuies follwed
The gap at 13200 is still active, but with changing fundamental data, now my ia is ,,BULLISH,, again, also other Indices following NDX.
RTY 52W still beaish, but it might change soon.
The 25 Strongest NDX Shares, based on their weight, broke all trends up, that is additional Vitamin BOOST for Nadaq. The End year ralley can begin.
Tomorrow on Nov. 15th 2023 we are looking and waiting for Core PPI m/m
Empire State Manufacturing Index
PPI m/m
Retail Sales m/m
If these data are below expectations, or majority of them, then NDX will soon reach the next level higher targeting 16000
16050 16150 16250 ...16772 ,before the rally to 17000 begins
Upper gap is at 15850-15950.
If the data are mixed or stronger, then we may have a fall back to 15794 15695 15500 15390
It epend on how strong the data will be this week, before the next week starts
Ue always Stops, to protect your capital.
Good Luck
US100Analysis is off, but forecast was right.
Here we are learning and doing better each day. Had I opened up my laptop yesterday, I would have possibly seen an opportunity to enter the bull run.
That's the lesson we learn as being managers of funds.
Break of 16640 will be where we start looking for more opportunities.
$US100 Another Bulls rally ends the sell off?
This Friday we met the 0.5 Fib retracement level from the last breakout.
Wall street snapped on its 9 week winning streak.
Mixed with both fear and hope to number of expected rate cuts in the current year of 2024, recent commodities price had shown re-incarnation followed by increasing tension in regions including Mid-east, Korea, and Ukraina.
Major AI stocks that carried the market throughout 2023 had cooled off a bit during the first week of Jan. But, is this really the end?
All eyes are on the US inflation data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outloook. Forecasts suggest consumer prices likely edged up by 0.2%. We could assume the service sector laid off number of their employees to maintain their high-productivity rate continue from last year. With this expectation, 6 rate cuts may seem naive option to blindly follow. Although, I expect market to move up for the first three days just because of the false hope of dovish fed speech planned for this Thursday.
NAS100Bounced off 16200, which was last a support in DEC 2023 and a resistance (High) in NOV 2023. Therefore level of significance
4H
* Bullish engulfing candle of the low
- doji followed and a possible hanging man
- dive deeper for more info
1H
* Bounce 3 times at 16425 : which usually is the beginning of an expected breakout
- there's a potential 4th touch
- next directional move will determine our stance
- close above 16250, could be a change in direction
- close below 16200 with a rejection (new high) of this level will be continuation to the downside.
15Min
* compact candles, from impulsive break.
- will impulsively open
Verdict
- The possible trade there is highly risky, bad RR and just placed with no expectation
- WILL NOT BE TAKING THE TRADE
- Waiting for better information on the market
US100 NASDAQ Technical Analysis and Trade Idea NAS100Sharp Retracement in NAS100: Opportunity on the Horizon?
Eyes are laser-focused on the NAS100 after it slammed into a key resistance level. The current aggressive pullback sets the stage for an intriguing dynamic ahead of the NFP data drop later today. A strong dollar boost (or unexpected weakness) could significantly impact the index, making this data release a potential swing point.
With such a sharp retracement already underway, I'm eyeing a potential long entry as the price plunges towards a crucial support zone. In the video, we dissected the trend, price action, market structure, and other technical essentials to build a comprehensive picture.
Remember: This analysis is purely for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Do your own due diligence before making any trading decisions.
NASDAQ Hit the Channel's Top. Mid-term correction expected.Nasdaq (NDX) hit (and marginally broke above) its November 2021 All Time High (ATH), completing the expected Megaphone pattern we shared with you on November 16 (see chart below):
Last Thursday (December 28) the index hit the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the August 16 2022 High and can be treated as the top of a Channel Up pattern. The key here is the 1D RSI, which is developing a Channel Down, i.e. Bearish Divergence, similar to the July 19 2023 High.
As a result, it is highly likely to see a good medium-term pull-back, which within the Channel Up pattern has been around -8.50% on average. Such a decline would approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 15550.
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NAS100There isn't much I can say or do.
This is a missed trade from my eyes, it followed what my alternate view from US30 showed. It just happened earlier.
Right now any trades I can get from here will not be the most optimum RR but will still be worth the risk just probably not scalp traders.
It is heading for 16600
* 3 touches up, 3 touches down. In the channel its been in
* It broke the channel and retested
* continued downwards
* rejected 16865 (Showing the direct, downwards)
* wait for opening to get last confluence before looking for sell entries
TP1 = 16760
TP2 = 16680
TP3 = 16600
NASDAQ: Breached the 4H MA50. Sell signal.Nasdaq just crossed on the current 4H candle under the 4H MA50, which has been the short term Support since December 8th. Even though it turned neutral on its 4H outlook (RSI = 45.004, MACD = 31.260, ADX = 51.152), 1D remains bullish (RSI = 65.645) so a potential decline will serve as a technical pullback inside the seven week Channel Down.
The 4H RSI is already on a Bearish Divergence much like it was on the last Bearish Leg of November and a candle close under the 4H MA50 will validate the sell signal. Our target is the bottom of the Channel Up on an expected -2.88% decline (as the previous one) and potential contact with the 4H MA200 (TP = 16,480).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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⚡️US100 CMC TRADING ⚡️ RISING WEDGEUS100 has formed a rising wedge pattern, and it is prudent to exercise patience for confirmation of the breakout before considering a short entry. There is a notable potential for the formation of a correctional leg, retracing back towards or below the recently highlighted key level within the context of an extended bearish trend.
US100 Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for US100.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 16759.6.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 18070.7.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Nas100Just an update into the "trade" if we had taken it. It is an okay trade a 5/10 according to my trading plan. This is still good for those scalpers looking for quick trades with quick bucks.
We just broke the high but not by much, which means there are sellers trying to regain from the close of last week. If you had taken this trade move SL to either BE or just enough in line with your trading plan.
NAS100High 16862.3 (Dec 2023) last reached in Nov 2021
Bullish since 2023 started
- lots of retests (bearish channels and fake-outs), prepare for it.
16698 - 16843 = straight channel
- both lower end and higher end have been tested more than once therefore looking like a waiting moment
Go down to 15Min you'll see the candle tell a story
- the last 2 to touch the lower part of the channel (the bear has been engulfed by the two that follow)
- then there's a hammer which shows end of bearish momentum, but price gets stuck in a box and closes in that box.
- Higher lows and heading to higher highs
- Zoom out you will see a mini bullish momentum that started out of the straight channel.
* I placed a possible trade but WILL NOT BE TAKING IT, it does not follow my RR which is a set rule in my trading plan to be 1:3 or more anything less and we are punishing ourselves.