Us100
NASDAQ: 4H Death Cross always signals a rally.Nasdaq in bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.073, MACD = -289.260, ADX = 41.209) as the mid February bearish wave hit the bottom of the September Channel Up. The formation of a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe has favored buying inside this pattern. In the meantime, the 4H RSI has been rising while the price was correcting, indicating the presence of a Bullish Divergence. Buy and aim for another +16% rise (TP = 23,200).
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NASDAQ hit its 1D MA200. Strongest buy signal in 2 years!Nasdaq (NDX) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 7 months (since the August 05 2024 Low) with its 1D RSI almost oversold (below 30.00). In the past 2 years (since the March 10 2023 test), the 1D MA200 has been tested another 3 times, all of which have been the absolute technical buy entries, kick-starting enormous rallies.
On top of that, the price is close to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up that started on the December 2022 market bottom. Every rally that followed after a 1D MA200 test has been marginally weaker than the previous but all three have been around +30% on average. The last one has been +27.61%, which is -3% weaker than the previous.
As a result, we are expecting a new rally to start now as all buy conditions within a 2-year span have been met (1D MA200, oversold 1D RSI) that can target 24500, which represents a +24.00% rally (-3% shorter rise than the previous).
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NAS100 - Nasdaq, won't it go below 20k?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. If the index rises towards the suggested zones, we can look for the next Nasdaq sell-off.
The composition of investors’ financial assets from 1990 to 2025 reveals shifts in the allocation of equities, bonds, and cash. Currently, the share of equities in investment portfolios has reached an all-time high of 54%, indicating a growing preference for the stock market among investors.
Conversely, the share of bonds and cash has declined to 18% and 13%, respectively, suggesting reduced interest in holding fixed-income assets and liquidity. At present, more than half of investors’ financial assets are concentrated in equities, which could reflect optimism about the market’s future growth.
This situation calls for increased caution from the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, as a significant portion of American households’ surplus income is now directed toward stocks. As a result, any downturn in the U.S. stock market could have more severe consequences for the public than before.
Scott Bassett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, responded to a recent survey indicating that Americans want President Donald Trump to focus more on reducing inflation. He stated that he is confident consumer price inflation in the United States will decline throughout the year.
In an interview with CBS and Face the Nation, Bassett defended Trump’s economic policies, emphasizing that the president is pursuing a comprehensive approach that includes tariffs, deregulation, and a gradual reduction in energy costs.
Meanwhile, following weaker-than-expected preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February and a decline in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, investors are now pricing in approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for this year. This projection is 10 basis points higher than the forecasts from the December dot plot.
Market pricing indicates that traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, particularly after the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. However, with Trump ramping up tariff threats against key U.S. trading partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico, outlining a clear economic roadmap has become more challenging. Tariff impositions pose a serious risk of reigniting inflation, prompting many Federal Reserve officials who have recently expressed their views to adopt a “wait and see” approach.
This week, market attention will once again turn to employment data, as investors eagerly anticipate the release of the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Other key events include the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimates for the Eurozone and the ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP Employment Report and ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday will be closely watched, with economists expecting another interest rate cut.
Is NASDAQ Losing Steam? A Reality Check for TradersHey Realistic Traders, Is CAPITALCOM:US100 Out of Steam? Let’s Dive Into the Analysis…
On the daily timeframe, the Nasdaq remains above the EMA-100, which has served as strong support through multiple successful rebounds. Simultaneously, the price has moved above the bullish trendline, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend.
Within wave 4, the price formed a falling wedge pattern, followed by a breakout. This signals the initiation of wave 5, which could potentially extend beyond the length of wave 1, given that wave 3 did not exceed the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has already formed a bullish crossover, adding further confirmation of a positive outlook for the Nasdaq.
Considering these strong technical signals, the price is likely to move upward toward the first target at 23,538 , or potentially the second target at 24,356.
However, this bullish scenario depends on the price staying above the critical stop-loss level at 20,833.
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Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Nasdaq."
"NASDAQ 100 (US 100) Bearish Outlook: Will Supply Zones Hold?"🔹Technical Analysis: US 100 Index (15-Minute Chart)
▪️Key Observations:
1. Downtrend Continuation:
- The US 100 Index is currently in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below key resistance zones, indicating further downside potential.
2.Supply Zones Identified:
- Two significant supply zones are marked on the chart where selling pressure is expected.
- The first supply zone is around 21,450 – 21,520.
- The second, stronger supply zone is near 21,600 – 21,700, where a previous sell-off occurred.
3. Bearish Rejection Expected:
- The price is likely to retest the lower supply zone before continuing downward.
- A rejection from this zone could lead to further declines.
4. Target Area:
- The projected target area is marked around 20,914, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend.
- If the price breaks below this level, further downside momentum could follow.
▪️Conclusion:
- The market structure remains bearish, and traders should watch for a potential rejection at the supply zone.
- A confirmation of resistance could provide shorting opportunities toward the 20,914 target area.
- However, a breakout above the supply zone could invalidate the bearish outlook.
▪️Trade Idea:
Bearish Bias – Wait for confirmation at the supply zone before considering short positions.
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NAS100 at Key Support – Bullish Rebound Ahead?PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is currently testing a major demand zone, which has previously acted as strong support. The recent bearish move has brought price into this key area, increasing the probability of a potential bullish reversal.
If buyers step in and defend this zone, we could see a bounce toward the 21,655 level, aligning with a short-term recovery from the current dip. However, a break and close below this support zone would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further declines.
Traders should look for bullish confirmation signals such as rejection wicks, bullish engulfing candles, or a shift in momentum before considering long positions.
Do you agree with this analysis? Drop your thoughts below!
NASDAQ: Broke into the 2 year Support Zone.Nasdaq has turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41/199, MACD = -42.030, ADX = 30.270) as the correction that started last Thursday hit the 1D MA100. The region between the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200 is the index's 2year Support Zone and has been a buy opportunity since February 2023. With the 1D RSI also on 6month lows, the current level is low enough to be a HL on the long term Channel Up, after which rallies to the 3.5 Fibonacci extension have started. Go long, TP = 24,000.
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NASDAQ Three conditions met for strong BUYNasdaq is trading inside a Channel Up in 2025 and today the price reached its bottom.
At the same time it marginally crossed under the MA100 (1d), making today's low the best technical buy opportunity since January 27th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 22370 (+6.92% rise like the previous two bullish waves).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) got oversold on the same level as the Jan 27th low. Overall, an oversold RSI on Nasdaq's last 6 month price action, has been a great buy opportunity.
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NAS100 Analysis: Key Levels & Bearish Trade Setup📊 NAS100 Analysis and Trade Idea | Key Levels & Bearish Bias Explained 📉
Dive into a detailed analysis of the NAS100 (NZ 100) with a focus on key support zones, retracement levels, and a bearish trading bias. Learn how to identify overextended price movements, imbalances, and potential short setups using the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Perfect for traders looking to refine their strategies in indices trading! 💡 💬 Share your thoughts and trading ideas in the comments below!
NASDAQ 4 more months before next correction.Nasdaq (NDX) has been rising non-stop with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as its Support since it first broke above it in March 13 2023, following the 2022 Inflation Crisis Bear Cycle.
This continuous period of growth has been built on a prolonger Bearish Divergence based on the 1W RSI, which has been on Lower Highs since June 05 2023. It is not the first time in recent history that the index has seen this pattern, as in the last 10 years we have had 2 periods of similar growth.
The 2014 - 2015 phase came to a sudden end in the first week of January 2016 after having marginally topped above the 4.0 Fibonacci extension. The 1W RSI Bearish Divergence eventually kicked in and the price dipped below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), while an RSI below 40.00 formed the bottom.
Similarly, the 2018 - 2019 phase got hammered in early February 2020 after topping very close to the 4.0 Fib ext, again sharply declining below the 1W MA100, finding support exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). We need to point out that this was a (technically) exaggerated price collapse though due to the COVID lockdowns.
As mentioned above, we are facing again an RSI Bearish Divergence and if the price action follows the previous two periods that both, amazingly enough, lasted for 742 days (106 weeks) from the first RSI High, we should be expecting a technical peak around June 23 2025 (exactly 4 months from now) near a 4.0 Fibonacci extension at 23500.
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US100 Is Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for US100.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 21,588.3.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 22,205.6 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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NASDAQ Approaching the ultimate 4hour MA200 buy entryNasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Channel Up, which is currently on a pullback.
This correction is approaching the pattern's bottom which happens to be on the 4hour MA200. The last two such contacts have been buy opportunities.
Also the 4hour RSI is oversold at 30.00 and the last two times it was on this level, they were again buy opportunities.
Buy and target the upper Resistance at 22230.
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NASDAQ: Opening selloff is a buy opportunity.Nasdaq remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.351, MACD = 161.240, ADX = 29.408) despite today's selling early into the session. This indicates that relative to the bullish long term trend, this correction is a buy opportunity, especially as the index hit its 4H MA50. This happens to be at the bottom of the 20day Channel Up, a pattern potentially identical to the December 10th low of the Channel Up. We are long, expecting a new +3.80% rise (TP = 22,700).
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