The relationship between gold, copper and the US10YFirst, can you tell me what you think the relationship between these two curves is? Clearly, these two curves have a strong negative correlation, meaning they move exactly opposite to each other. You can see in the image that their behavior is like a mirror image (from 2007 to before 2022).
You are familiar with the gold-to-copper ratio, right? Now, when this gold-to-copper ratio curve rises, it means that gold is giving better returns compared to copper. This indicates that the global economy is moving away from growth and heading toward a recession. Investors, instead of investing in production (where copper symbolizes production), choose to invest in a safe haven like gold. The opposite happens when this curve goes down.
The lower curve represents the yield on long-term U.S. bonds. When this curve is rising, it means that the supply of bonds is greater than the demand. People are selling bonds, which causes the bond yield to rise. When the curve is falling, it means people are buying bonds, which causes the bond yield to drop.
Why do these two curves move in opposite directions?
Now, let’s get to the main question. The answer to this question is simple: bonds, like gold, serve as a safe haven for investors. When the economy moves toward a recession (when gold offers better returns than copper, and the gold-to-copper ratio is rising), some investors shift towards bonds, and the yield curve drops. That’s why these two curves move in opposite directions.
To summarize the entire story: Movement toward recession = investors moving toward gold and bonds = rise in the gold-to-copper ratio and drop in bond yield curve.
Now it’s clear why these two curves move opposite to each other. The big surprise is coming👇
Since the beginning of 2022, the historical trend has changed. These two curves have started to show a positive correlation! Meaning, everything I mentioned above has gone out the window! Now, the question is: What suddenly happened? There are several analyses, but I believe what changed is that U.S. bonds are no longer a safe haven for investors, as they once were (the same fear signal I mentioned earlier). In fact, after the pandemic, the world has never been the same. This is an important development and it affects many things. I’ve addressed this topic from various perspectives before, and here’s a new angle on it.
For the past two to three years, contrary to the historical trend, investors have been buying gold but selling bonds, and these two curves have been rising together.
As you can see, the analytical situation has changed drastically compared to, say, 10 years ago, and many fundamental facts have shifted. For instance, many people expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and gold to go up again, but after an initial short shock, the story will probably reverse.
#Gold #XAUUSD #HG1!
Us100analysis
Nasdaq WE ARE DOOMED! IF Trump will keep doing same bs)NQ on top of the range, have to wait for weekly opening because there are few direction where it can go
1 - without correction all the way up till 20044 and 20200( daily IFVG)
2 - correction till breaker ~19200, liq grab rebalance here and all the way up
3 - it will be deviation of the range that we had then aggressive market shift( ChoCH) with FVG small pull back to 19200-19400 (depends on FVG) and then all the way down till 18-17-16k (red line)
NAS100 Testing Lows: Will a Bounce Offer a Sell Opportunity?NAS100 Technical & Fundamental Analysis 🧐
Overall Sentiment: The current market sentiment surrounding tech stocks and the broader indices like the NASDAQ 100 appears cautious, leaning bearish. Factors like persistent inflation concerns, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path 🏦, and ongoing geopolitical tensions can weigh heavily on growth-sensitive assets like tech stocks. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases (CPI, PPI, FOMC minutes) as they could significantly sway sentiment.
1. Daily Timeframe (D1): The Bigger Picture 🗺️
The NAS100 is exhibiting clear bearish characteristics on the daily chart, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently approaching or testing a significant area of previous daily equal lows. This is a critical zone ⚠️. Why? Because significant buy-side liquidity often rests below such lows (in the form of stop-loss orders from long positions) and sell-side orders may trigger if these levels break decisively.
A strong break and close below these daily lows could signal a continuation of the major downtrend, potentially accelerating selling pressure. Conversely, this area could act as temporary support, prompting the pullback you're anticipating.
2. 4-Hour Timeframe (H4): The Setup Structure 🏗️
My H4 chart clearly illustrates the recent sharp decline. Price is currently testing the support zone highlighted (around 17,800 - 18,000), which corresponds to the 0.00% Fibonacci level (17,973.8) drawn from the recent swing high (~19,117.4).
This support zone aligns with the concept of hitting the daily lows/liquidity area.
Anticipated Scenario:
I am expecting a reaction (a bounce/pullback) from this current zone. The projected path suggests a retracement towards the 50% Fibonacci level (Equilibrium) at approximately 18,547.3. This level often acts as significant resistance after a strong impulse move. The 61.8% level (~18,682.6) is also a key area to watch just above it.
Point of Interest (POI):
The zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fib levels (roughly 18,550 - 18,700) is your key decision area for a potential short entry. 👍
3. 15-Minute Timeframe (M15):
Entry Confirmation Trigger 🔫
The M15 timeframe will be crucial if price reaches your H4 POI (around the 50% Fib level).
What to Look For: During the potential pullback towards ~18,550, the M15 will likely show a temporary bullish structure (higher highs and higher lows).
Confirmation Signal:
For your short setup, you'd want to see this M15 bullish structure fail upon reaching the H4 resistance zone. Look for:
A break of market structure (BOS) to the downside on M15 (price making a lower low after failing to make a higher high).
Formation of clear M15 lower highs and lower lows.
Bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing candles, pin bars/shooting stars) rejecting the H4 resistance/Fib level.
Potential divergence on indicators like RSI or MACD (though price action is primary).
Synthesized Outlook & Strategy:
The NAS100 is undeniably in a bearish phase across multiple timeframes. The current test of daily lows / H4 support (~17,973) is a critical juncture. A bounce from here seems plausible, aligning with your expectation of a pullback.
The Strategy:
Patience: Wait for price to potentially rally towards the H4 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (~18,547 - ~18,682). 🧘♀️
Confirmation:
Monitor the M15 timeframe closely as price approaches this zone. Look for a clear shift in market structure from bullish (pullback) to bearish (resumption of trend). 📉
Entry: If bearish confirmation occurs (M15 BOS), consider a short entry.
Targets:
Initial targets could be the recent lows (~17,973), followed by the Fibonacci extension levels shown on your chart (e.g., -50% at ~17,400.4) or the area below the daily equal lows. 🎯
Risk Management: Crucially, define your stop-loss level (e.g., above the swing high formed during the M15 structure break or above the 61.8%/78.6% Fib level) to manage risk effectively. 🛡️
Fundamental Check:
cross-reference this technical setup with any major news releases or shifts in market sentiment that could invalidate the pattern. 📰
Tactical US100 Trading: Converting 1W Trend into 30m Opportunity📈 The US100 index is currently exhibiting a bearish trend pattern on the weekly timeframe. We can observe a notable rally followed by a retracement into equilibrium when analyzed against the previous price wing range.
🔎 Currently, the index is positioned at a premium level, creating an environment where short sellers might be building positions in anticipation of further downward movement. However, market dynamics remain highly sensitive to external influences, particularly unexpected statements and social media announcements from influential figures like Donald Trump.
🌊 With such market unpredictability in play, focusing on shorter timeframes provides more actionable intelligence. Price action signals offer clearer guidance in this volatile environment.
⚡ Trade Opportunity: The 30-minute chart reveals a defined trading range worth monitoring. A definitive break above this range could present an opportunity to enter long positions, while a breakdown below support might signal a favorable short entry point.
🎯 This breakout strategy enables traders to respond to actual market movements rather than attempting to forecast the broader market direction—a particularly valuable approach given the current unpredictable market landscape.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk of capital loss and may not be appropriate for all investors. Historical performance does not guarantee future outcomes. Always perform independent research and consider your personal financial circumstances before executing any trades. Market conditions are subject to rapid changes, and no trading methodology ensures profits. The information presented should be used as one of many inputs in your decision-making process.
NAS100 Triangle Apex – Breakout or Breakdown ImminentBullish View:
• Price is forming higher lows and holding above the lower ascending trendline.
• A breakout above the upper descending trendline near 18,500 would confirm bullish
momentum.
• If the breakout is sustained, potential upside targets include 18,650 and 18,800.
Bearish View:
• Price has tested the lower support trendline and shown weakness near the apex of the
triangle.
• A breakdown below 18,100 would indicate bearish momentum and invalidate the ascending
structure.
• If the breakdown is sustained, potential downside targets include 17,950 and 17,700.
Nasdaq what to expect next?The Nasdaq has declined approximately 23% from its all-time high, positioning us near a notable discount on a global timeframe. In my professional assessment, this presents a compelling opportunity to begin constructing a diversified portfolio. However, I anticipate further downward movement in the near term, so I recommend a measured approach—allocate capital gradually rather than deploying all available cash at once. Consider initiating positions through Contracts for Difference (CFDs) or Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), focusing on high-quality, blue-chip equities such as Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Nike (NIKE), and Walmart (WMT), among others.
That said, I advise against overcommitting capital at this juncture. The potential for an economic recession remains, and the market could trade sideways for an extended period—potentially one to two years. Prudence is warranted.
Additionally, the Fear and Greed Index for U.S. stocks currently stands at 6, a level strikingly close to the 5 recorded during the COVID-19 market crash. Those familiar with market history will recall the significant rebound that followed. This historical parallel suggests a potential inflection point.
Personally, I am actively participating in this market, incrementally rebuilding long-term positions within my investment account. Opportunities of this magnitude are infrequent, occurring perhaps once every few years. However, this does not preclude further declines—markets can always test lower levels. From a statistical perspective, though, the current environment supports initiating long-term investment positions with a disciplined strategy.
Let me know if you’d like a deeper analysis of specific assets or portfolio allocation tactics!
NOT FA!
"US500/SPX500" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US500/SPX500" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (5780) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 30m timeframe (5700) Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 5860 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
"US500/SPX500" Indices Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
"NAS100 / US100" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day or Swing)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "NAS100 / US100" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (20000) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (19400) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 20800 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
"NAS100 / US100" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets.. go ahead to check 👉👉👉
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
Nasdaq 100 Volatility. US Tech Stocks Remain 'Runoff Smelling'It's gone two months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. only two monts, really? 😸) since comrade Trump entered The White House (again).
Everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t.
- And now?..
- It's gone. It's absolutely gone..!
Leveraged bets and crypto assets turned into Bearish market; all four major US indices (S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000) are negative over the past two months, while Gold OANDA:XAUUSD has doubled in price over the past 5 years (4th time in history ever), and remain the only is premium positioned.
This is why we at our 💖 Beloved @PandorraResearch Team decided to paint this idea for Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index CBOE:VXN to emphasize (again) that nothing last forever and no one should chase a feather, or dust in the wind.
Broadly-known ominously among investors as the "fear index" and launched by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (now the Cboe) in 1993, the Volatility Index (VIX) is meant to present the market's expectation of volatility over the coming 30 days. The metric is derived from options prices on the S&P 500 Index and captures the anticipated swings that drive investor sentiment.
In recent years, the VIX has become a far more central index, especially during periods of financial turbulence, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. During these stretches, spikes in the VIX reflected widespread anxiety; during others, it's been a crucial barometer for market participants seeking a glimpse into investors' collective psyche. When the VIX is low, this suggests calm seas ahead. When it spikes, it signals approaching storms.
Every single stock index do have its own volatility.
This story (again) is about Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index CBOE:VXN
The Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index (VXN) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) option prices. It measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term NASDAQ-100 options. VXN is quoted in percentage points, just like the standard deviation of a rate of return, e.g. 19.36. Cboe disseminates the VXN index value continuously during trading hours.
The VXN Index is a leading barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility relating to the NASDAQ-100 Index.
Learn more about Methodology for Calculation of the VXN Index, using official CBOE website.
Technical observations
The main technical graph indicates that CBOE:VXN Index has recently jumped to current 'above 20' basic points.
In nowadays 'above 20' VXN levels indicate on further potentail Bearish progress in US Tech Stocks (Nasdaq 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX ).
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team
NAS 100 Overextended – Brace for a Pullback! The NAS 100 is looking highly overextended at the moment 📊. Market conditions are precarious, with many instruments trading into key support and resistance levels on both the daily and weekly timeframes ⏳.
A sharp pullback 📉 could be on the horizon, potentially offering a counter-trend buying opportunity on the lower timeframes for the US 100 💰. If it pushes higher, it may set up a potential short trade 🎯.
🚨 Not financial advice – trade wisely and manage your risk! ⚖️
NAS100 Analysis: Key Levels & Bearish Trade Setup📊 NAS100 Analysis and Trade Idea | Key Levels & Bearish Bias Explained 📉
Dive into a detailed analysis of the NAS100 (NZ 100) with a focus on key support zones, retracement levels, and a bearish trading bias. Learn how to identify overextended price movements, imbalances, and potential short setups using the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Perfect for traders looking to refine their strategies in indices trading! 💡 💬 Share your thoughts and trading ideas in the comments below!
Is the NAS100 Setting Up for a Reversal? Here’s My Game Plan!👀 👉 In this video, we break down the US100, which appears overextended after pushing into a key weekly high. A significant retracement could be on the horizon this week. I’ll walk you through my trading strategy, covering breakout trades and trend continuation setups. 🚨 *Not financial advice.
NASDAQ SHORTConsidering Friday's PA where there was a liquidity grab,there is high resistance liquidity on the buyside. Formation of a one candle CISD further confirms that we might be bearish for a couple of days.
We will delve into the smaller timeframe (4H & 1H) to have our entry position and our targets will be at 20860 and 20670
NASDAQ 100 Hits Key Resistance: Is a Retracement Imminent?In this video, I analyze the NASDAQ 100 (#NAS100) as it trades into a key resistance level, appearing overextended on the 4-hour timeframe. I discuss the potential for a counter-trend trade, targeting a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous price swing. Watch for insights and strategies on navigating this setup! Not financial advice.
"US100 / US Tech / NASDAQ" Index Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "US100 / US Tech / NASDAQ" Index Metal market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 :Traders & Thieves with New Entry A bull trade can be initiated on the MA level breakout of 21,300.00
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 3H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
Goal 🎯: 22,400.00 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook:
The (US100 / US Tech / NASDAQ) market is expected to move in a bullish direction, driven by several key factors.
🟡Macroeconomic Factors:
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's dovish stance on interest rates is expected to support the US stock market.
Economic Growth: The US economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, supporting the stock market.
Inflation: Low inflation levels are expected to support the stock market, as they allow for accommodative monetary policy.
🟢Fundamental Factors:
Earnings Growth: Strong earnings growth from major tech companies, such as Apple and Microsoft, is expected to support the NASDAQ100.
Valuations: The NASDAQ100 is trading at a relatively high valuation, but strong earnings growth and low interest rates are expected to support the index.
Sector Rotation: The rotation into growth sectors, such as tech and healthcare, is expected to support the NASDAQ100.
🔵Trader/Market Sentimental Analysis:
Trader Sentiment: The CoT report shows that speculative traders are net long the NASDAQ100, indicating a bullish sentiment.
Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is bullish, with many analysts expecting the NASDAQ100 to continue its uptrend.
Technical Analysis: The technical analysis shows that the NASDAQ100 is in an uptrend, with a bullish breakout above the 13,000 level.
🟣Sentimental Outlook:
Bullish Sentiment: 65%
Bearish Sentiment: 20%
Neutral Sentiment: 15%
🟤Trader and Market Sentiment:
- 55% of institutional traders are long on the NASDAQ 100 index, indicating a bullish sentiment.
- Retail traders are also optimistic, with 60% of traders holding a long position on the index.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Nasdaq US100: Positioned for a Breakout to New Highs!After a deep retrace on the daily timeframe, I’ve initiated a long position on the Nasdaq US100. The plan is to ride this wave back to its Higher High, capitalizing on the recovery momentum.
Technical Insight:
• Key Structure: The market has shown strong respect for the current retracement levels, providing a solid base for a bounce.
• Trendline Support: Price action aligns well with the trendline channel, indicating potential for upward continuation.
• Fib Levels: The pullback reached a critical zone, signaling that buyers may step in to push the price higher.
Let’s see how this plays out! Always remember to trade with proper risk management and pay yourself along the way!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Bearish Shift in NAS100: What’s Next for the US100 Trend?👀 👉 In this video, we take an in-depth look at the NAS100, analyzing its trend, market structure, price action, key support and resistance zones, and how liquidity is influencing the market. Currently, the US100 is approaching an important support level following a bearish market structure shift. We discuss possible strategies if the trend continues. All the details are covered here. Please note, this is not financial advice.