Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate.
So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2024 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor .
This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia .
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
US10Y
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP on scheduleRegardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US, during the previous week the 10Y US Treasury yields slides back till the levels from October this year. The yields started the week around the level of 4,42% while they are ending the week at 4,17%. Feds favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index was released early in the week, which was in line with market expectations. On the other hand, FOMC November meeting minutes were released suggesting a Feds members conclusion that in case of further inflation relaxation and labour data in line with their expectations, there will be a case for further rate cuts.
At this moment, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests 66% odds that the Fed might cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at their December meeting. The US Treasury yields reacted to these expectations. As per current sentiment, there is still space for a further drop in yields, at least until the market properly tests the 4,0% level. It should be considered that Non-farm Payrolls are scheduled to be released in a week ahead, in which sense, some volatility might follow the US yields.
Arabica Coffee Futures. The Canary in the Coal MineWith nearly 60 percent up path performance in 2024, Arabica coffee futures rose above $3.00 a pound, the highest mark since May 2011, as traders assess potential problems with next year’s crop in top producer - Brazil.
Despite recent rains, soil moisture levels remain low, leading to limited fruit development and excessive leaf growth, local traders said.
U.S. and European coffee lovers are getting ready to tighten their belts as natural disasters have hit the world’s two largest coffee-producing countries, causing commodity prices to more than double in the past five years.
Droughts in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, and severe typhoons in Vietnam, the second-largest producer, have severely disrupted the global coffee supply chain, driving up production costs that are increasingly being passed on to consumers.
In addition, there are reports that Brazilian coffee farmers are holding back shipments of coffee to the market in hopes of higher prices, leading to further shortages, tighter supplies of coffee on the spot market, and higher prices.
Coffee is literally the “Canary in the coal mine,” signaling climate change, the ecological crisis, and its impact on agriculture.
The idiom originated within the Industrial Revolution in England (back to late XVIII century), when coal miners, lacking modern gas-monitoring equipment, would take canaries (birds) into the coal mine with them. And when dangerous gases like carbon monoxide (which is odorless) accumulated in excess in the mine, they stopped the birds chirping and killed the canaries before killing the miners, thus providing a warning to leave the tunnels immediately.
As some of the world’s largest coffee-consuming regions, coffee lovers in the United States and Europe will find the price hikes particularly hard to stomach.
According to German consumer data company Statista, Europeans consume about 3.2 million tons of coffee a year, accounting for nearly 33 percent of the world’s total coffee consumption, while Americans drink 400 million cups of coffee daily (which equates to 146 billion cups of coffee consumed in the United States each year, or nearly four cups a day for every American adult).
In fact, coffee is more than just a morning ritual in the United States; it has become a cultural and business driver.
But understanding the depth of America’s love affair with coffee may be as complex as the drink itself, and of course, more complex than the current coffee prices.
Natural disasters have taken a heavy toll.
Brazil, which accounts for about 40% of the world’s coffee production, is battling one of its worst droughts in decades. Dry conditions have severely impacted Arabica-growing regions, reducing yields.
The 2023–24 crop cycle is already seeing a sharp drop in production, with some estimates suggesting output could fall by as much as a fifth (20%).
The impact is being felt most acutely in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-producing state and home to high-quality Arabica, which has seen months of lower-than-normal rainfall.
Brazil’s farmers are battling the country’s worst drought in seven decades and above-average temperatures.
While Brazil dominates the Arabica market, Vietnam is the world’s leading producer of the cheaper Robusta beans used in instant coffee. Earlier this fall, Typhoon Yagi devastated the country’s main coffee-growing regions in the Central Highlands, killing at least 60 people and injuring hundreds more.
Thousands of hectares of coffee plantations were estimated to have been damaged, leading to significant losses in both the current crop and future production potential, as the damaged trees will take years to recover.
A perfect storm of environmental concerns has driven prices to all-time highs, above US$3.00 per pound of coffee beans.
The combined impact of drought in Brazil and the typhoon in Vietnam has sent global coffee prices soaring. The International Coffee Organization (ICO), an intergovernmental body made up of coffee-exporting and -importing countries, reported that prices rose nearly 20% in the third quarter of 2024, reaching their highest level in nearly a decade.
The ongoing effects of climate change make a quick return to stability difficult. The sector remains vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which could further disrupt future harvests. In addition, growing global demand, particularly in emerging markets such as Asia, could continue to put upward pressure on prices, further slowing recovery efforts.
As the world’s two largest coffee producers struggle to recover from the crisis, the outlook for the global coffee market remains uncertain.
Climate change is reducing the area of land suitable for growing coffee crops, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, creating a range of challenges for the sector and coffee drinkers in the US and Europe.
In technical terms, the main 12-month graph of coffee prices indicates another buyers attempt to storm the round, 250-cent mark.
Since the price is near to consolidate by the end of the year above this round number, it can contribute to a further rally and multiple price growth in the foreseeable future.
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed Awakening. Series IIIt's gone 3 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin almost cleared $100,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
However macro data still stoke fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too slow with cutting interest rates. Non-farm payroll added just 12K new places last month. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.5%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
Fresh ISM release is scheduled on Dec 02, 2024 (47.5 points forecasted), and labor market data is on the radars on Friday, Dec 06 (+183K non-farm payroll forecasted).
The main technical graph is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format, and it indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical structure in development, as it's been discussed in earlier published ideas.
Moreover, huge 200-Week SMA breakthrough is on the investments radars also.
What does it mean for Bond Market?.. Potentially "Good", to jump to all-time high.
... and for Stock Market?.. Potentially "Also Good", until it reach the fever pitch.
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for October PCEPrevious week markets spent on digesting currently mixed economic data as well as statements from a few Fed officials. The most important question at the moment is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at December's FOMC meeting or not. Statements of two Fed officials were rather mixed. On one side, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted his view on a need for more rate cuts, but the pace of it should not be speeded up. On the other side is Fed Governor Bowman, who stated that the fight against inflation “appears to have stalled”. The week ahead is important for markets, as October PCE data are set for a release, in which sense, might provide some clearer picture to markets of a potential next Fed move. At the current moment there are only 35% odds that the Fed will cut rates by 25% in December.
The 10Y US Treasuries were traded in a relatively mixed manner, exposing market uncertainty over the potential Feds move. The yields started the week around the level of 4,48% and for the rest of the week was oscillating around the 4,4% level. Further relaxation might continue during the week ahead, in case that the October PCE is in line with the current market expectations. In case that there are some deviations, then the yields might return toward the 4,5%. However, the most probable scenario is further relaxation of yields, at least to the level of 4,3%.
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed is not in hurryPrevious week on the US Treasury bond market was marked with Fed Chair Powell's comment that the Fed is “not in a hurry to lower interest rates”. The note came from Feds perception of a strong US growth, in which sense, there is no need to cut interest rates too soon. This marked investors confidence, so 10Y Treasury yields continued their path toward the upside. The highest weekly level reached was 4,49% at one point, however, yields are ending the week at 4,44%.
It will take some time until the markets digest the mentioned note from Fed Chair Powell. Now the question is whether the Fed will cut interest rates at their December's meeting, or the rate cut will be postponed for next year. As per CME FedWatch Tool, the market is expecting with a 62% odds, that the Fed will cut in December by 25bps, while the rest is of opinion that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. This digesting might bring some volatility back on the market, where yields might move between 4,5% and 4,4% during the week ahead.
US10Y 1D RSI Bearish Divergence signals a long-term sell.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the December 27 2023 Low. The price is above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and is approaching the patterns top.
The 1D RSI is already making a bearish reversal though, having posted Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs, which technically is a Bearish Divergence. As a result, we expect the Bullish Leg to top soon and then reverse to the Channel's new Bearish Leg.
The previous one made a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern on the 1.2 Fibonacci extension level and as a result our Target is just above it at 3.500%.
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The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea.
The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow.
There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing.
Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades.
Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
Trump Presidency Ignites Bond Yields on Inflation ExpectationsThe “Make America Great Again” ethos has set the greenback on fire. Donald Trump's re-election has the US dollar surging 2%, extending its rally since early October to a total gain of 5%.
This resurgence is despite the anticipated 25 basis points (“bps”) rate cut at the November FOMC meeting. Dollar rally is driven by expectations of potential policy changes by the Trump Presidency.
HIGHER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS UNDER TRUMP 2.0
Trump’s election victory, combined with the Republican sweep of the Senate and the House of Representatives, gives the party the leverage to enact swift and substantial legislative changes.
His policies, such as corporate-friendly tax cuts & light-touch regulations, are expected to amplify corporate growth. These policies, combined with import tariff imposition, are expected to drive inflation higher. Rising inflation will curtail the pace of rate cuts by the Fed.
Rate cut expectations have eased since election. On November 6 (election day), projections pointed to rates reaching 350-375 bps on election day (6/Nov) per CME FedWatch tool. Now, they are expected to reach 375-400 bps.
Trump has previously pushed the Fed towards accommodative rate environment. Fed Chair Powell re-iterated that the Fed remains independent and data driven.
Source: CME FedWatch
Trump's proposed tariff policy will further strengthen the dollar. In August 2023, Trump announced plans for a universal 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, reiterating that tariffs on Chinese goods could be even higher, potentially reaching 60%-100%.
Such tariffs are expected to drive inflation higher. It will raise consumer prices and provoke retaliatory actions from trading partners, worsening inflation. Trump aims for these tariffs to revitalize American manufacturing and reduce reliance on imports which collectively support a stronger dollar.
STRONGER DOLLAR TRIGGER BOND YIELD SURGE
The resurgent dollar has contributed to the sharp rally in bond yields. The yield rally since October has resulted in the 10Y yield rising by 60 bps. Yields initially surged after the election result but partially reversed the following day after the FOMC meeting.
It currently stands 5 bps higher than the pre-election level.
Unlike the yield, the yield spread has remained flat since October. Higher for longer rates act to push this spread lower.
The Federal Reserve reaffirmed (at its Nov meeting) its dovish tone as Powell pointed to signs of an easing job market and slowing inflation. However, its impact on curbing bond yields was limited.
According to a JP Morgan report , while Fed Chair Powell has consistently conveyed a dovish tone over the years, the Fed's actual decisions have often skewed hawkish.
Although Powell’s dovish statements have initially brought bond yields down, the hawkish policy actions and Fed’s wait and watch approach that followed have typically led to renewed yield increases. This explains why yields continue to rise despite Powell’s dovish remarks at the November meeting.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Treasury bond yields have been on the rise since October and Trump’s win has supercharged the rally. Investors are expecting higher inflation due to Republican policies which favour corporate growth.
Import tariff, if enacted, would have an even larger impact on the dollar and bond yields. However, actual policy plans remain uncertain for now.
While yields initially surged after the elections, they partially reversed shortly after as the Fed signalled a dovish stance. Despite this, the 10Y-2Y yield spread has remained unchanged.
Resurgent inflation will lead to the Fed slowing the pace of rate cuts. The recent reversal in yield spreads may be unsustainable given the expectation for slower rate cuts. When Trump administration announces policy plans, yields could surge even more strongly.
This week’s CPI release is anticipated to influence bond market movements. Analysts expect October’s YoY inflation to remain steady at 2.4%. If inflation holds at this level, it may have minimal impact, aligning with the Fed’s "watch and wait" strategy. However, a sharper-than-expected drop in inflation could reinforce expectations of quicker Fed rate cuts.
With the impact of inflation most apparent on the longer-tenor yields, investors can focus the position on the 10Y-2Y spread.
CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis-point change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This simplifies spread calculations with a 1 bps change in spread representing profit & loss of USD 10.
The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively. However, with CME Group’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of 12/Nov, making this trade even more capital efficient.
A hypothetical long position on the CME 10Y yield futures and a short position on the 2Y yield futures offers a reward to risk ratio of 1.3x is described below.
Entry: 6.2 basis points
Target: -11.5 basis points
Stop Loss: 20 basis points
Profit at Target: USD 177 ((6.2 - (-11.5)) x 10)
Loss at Stop: USD 138 ((6.2 - 20) x 10)
Reward to Risk: 1.3x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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US 10Y TREASURY: still digestingIt was an interesting week for US Treasury bonds. Although markets went into hype after the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the US, the 10Y Treasury yields remained out of this scope. Their exclusive focus was on the FOMC meeting and Fed’s next move. As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, with a solid overview of the US economy at this moment. The 10Y Treasury benchmark reached its highest weekly level at 4,47%, after which some relaxation came, down to the level of 4,30%.
Markets will use the week ahead to digest currently available data. The Fed has another FOMC meeting scheduled in December. Markets are expecting, with currently 75% odds that the Fed will make another rate cut by 25 bps. In line with this sentiment, it could be expected that 10Y Treasury yields will continue with a relaxation. However, some volatility might also be expected, where the yields might shortly turn to the upside, testing levels modestly above current 4,3% level, before they make a move toward the 4,2% level.
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed.
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US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC rate decisionSurprisingly low Non-farm payrolls of 12K surprised markets and shaped investors sentiment as of the end of the previous week. The US Treasury yields were heading higher testing shortly the level of 4,3%, however, Friday's noisy NFPs pushed the yields toward the 4,36% level.
The week ahead will be the crucial one of the further courses of the 10Y Treasury benchmark. On November 7th, the FOMC will decide on the further course of US interest rates. It is to be seen how Fed currently perceives the US jobs market, and whether such a low jobs level will have an impact on Fed decision. At this moment, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. At this moment, there is an indication of a possibility that the market will test the level of 4,4%, before the yields ease a bit back. Still, due to US Presidential elections and the FOMC rate decision, this might be another highly volatile week on US financial markets.
US10Y Most Deviated in History. Except for the Great DepressionThe percent deviation from model of second order measurements is one of the most useful metrics for timing the Bond Market. Shown here is the percent deviation of the 30 period close Monthly RSI from its 60 Month Simple for the US 10 year Treasury Bond. The only time in history it has deviated this much was the Great Depression.
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE and NFP aheadDuring the previous week there has been a lack of new macro data which would point to markets the course of inflation and potential next Feds move regarding interest rates. Still, the markets are watching closely any statements from Fed officials, and trying to position according to the current sentiment. Considering that statements from Feds officials were pretty cautious regarding the future rate cuts, the markets reacted by increasing yields. The US 10Y benchmark started the week by testing the 4,0% level, and moved to the highest weekly level at 4,25%. Yields eased on Friday, ending the week at 4,18%.
The week ahead is bringing a release of new PCE and Non-farm payrolls data, which would most certainly bring some increased volatility back to the market. There is the potential that the yields might continue to slow down during the week, however, in case of any surprises related to macro data, yields could also hit the 4,25% level for one more time.
Gold 1H Intra-Day Chart 28.10.2024Gold did push up which we did say would be a possible option. Currently at a new ATH of $2,774! Here is what I am looking for next;
Option 1: Gold bullish momentum now slows down & starts dropping towards $2,718.
Option 2: Gold pushes a little higher towards $2,785 next.
Gold Rush Knocks Dow Jones Industrial Average Off Its FeetGold as a value asset continues to shine brightly, having reached a new all-time high near $2,600 on Monday, September 16, marking the 30th all-time high for gold prices this year, 2024.
It is also noteworthy that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) to gold (XAUUSD) ratio is gravitating to ever lower values, while the time-tested indicator of a U.S. recession, based on the US labor market behavior signaling that one is imminent.
Thanks to @chinmaysk1 and its full of worth open source script Recession And Bull Run Warning, that I truly believe is one of the best over many.
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/
With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature.
Fears & Greed Awakening.
👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively.
👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months.
👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero.
Technical observations
👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough.
👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark.
👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analysis(What we need to know)!Today, I want to analyze the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) for you in the weekly time frame . In fact, the US 10-Year Government Bonds shows the yield rate of ten-year US Treasury bonds and is a measure of investors' confidence in the US economy . As such, this index influences capital allocation across various markets and impacts broader financial conditions .
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The US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) started its upward trend after COVID-19 . After breaking the Important Resistance line and 200_SMA(Monthly) , we can hope for the continuation of US10Y's upward trend. (The Important Resistance line started in 1981 , so it was very important.)
According to the Elliott wave theory , US10Y seems to be completing main wave 4 , so main wave 3 was of the Extended type . If the upper line of the descending channel breaks, we can be more sure of the end of main wave 4.
I expect US10Y to rise at least as wide as the descending channel width and up to the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) after the descending channel break , completing the main wave 5 . If the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) is broken, we can expect a further increase in US10Y .
Now let's see if the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) increases , what will be the effect on other assets?
Impact of Rising 10-Year Bond Yields on Key Assets:
Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) and Other Cryptocurrencies : As bond yields increase, riskier assets like Bitcoin may face downward pressure. Investors are often drawn to safer investments, such as bonds, when yields rise, making cryptocurrencies less attractive.
Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) : Higher bond yields usually put pressure on gold prices. Since gold does not offer any yield, a rising yield on bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing a potential decline in its price.
U.S. Stocks : Rising bond yields can lead to lower stock values, particularly in riskier sectors like tech. Higher bond yields often translate into increased borrowing costs, impacting growth and profitability, especially for companies that rely heavily on credit.
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Weekly time frame⏰.
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TLT (Debt Supply) Goes Up With Federal Borrowing (Debt Demand)Here's your edge: the TLT blasts off when Government borrowing blasts off, a simple case of supply and demand.
The Federal Government borrowed 2.2 Trillion USD in the last 12 months, data that has been added to Bloomberg Terminals but not here on Tradingview or on FRED. I bring you a piece of the cake, friends.
SOURCE: x.com