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US 10Y TREASURY: still digestingIt was an interesting week for US Treasury bonds. Although markets went into hype after the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the US, the 10Y Treasury yields remained out of this scope. Their exclusive focus was on the FOMC meeting and Fed’s next move. As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by another 25 bps, with a solid overview of the US economy at this moment. The 10Y Treasury benchmark reached its highest weekly level at 4,47%, after which some relaxation came, down to the level of 4,30%. Markets will use the week ahead to digest currently available data. The Fed has another FOMC meeting scheduled in December. Markets are expecting, with currently 75% odds that the Fed will make another rate cut by 25 bps. In line with this sentiment, it could be expected that 10Y Treasury yields will continue with a relaxation. However, some volatility might also be expected, where the yields might shortly turn to the upside, testing levels modestly above current 4,3% level, before they make a move toward the 4,2% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC rate decisionSurprisingly low Non-farm payrolls of 12K surprised markets and shaped investors sentiment as of the end of the previous week. The US Treasury yields were heading higher testing shortly the level of 4,3%, however, Friday's noisy NFPs pushed the yields toward the 4,36% level. The week ahead will be the crucial one of the further courses of the 10Y Treasury benchmark. On November 7th, the FOMC will decide on the further course of US interest rates. It is to be seen how Fed currently perceives the US jobs market, and whether such a low jobs level will have an impact on Fed decision. At this moment, the market is expecting to see a further 25 bps cut. At this moment, there is an indication of a possibility that the market will test the level of 4,4%, before the yields ease a bit back. Still, due to US Presidential elections and the FOMC rate decision, this might be another highly volatile week on US financial markets.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
US 10Y TREASURY: PCE and NFP aheadDuring the previous week there has been a lack of new macro data which would point to markets the course of inflation and potential next Feds move regarding interest rates. Still, the markets are watching closely any statements from Fed officials, and trying to position according to the current sentiment. Considering that statements from Feds officials were pretty cautious regarding the future rate cuts, the markets reacted by increasing yields. The US 10Y benchmark started the week by testing the 4,0% level, and moved to the highest weekly level at 4,25%. Yields eased on Friday, ending the week at 4,18%. The week ahead is bringing a release of new PCE and Non-farm payrolls data, which would most certainly bring some increased volatility back to the market. There is the potential that the yields might continue to slow down during the week, however, in case of any surprises related to macro data, yields could also hit the 4,25% level for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
Gold Rush Knocks Dow Jones Industrial Average Off Its FeetGold as a value asset continues to shine brightly, having reached a new all-time high near $2,600 on Monday, September 16, marking the 30th all-time high for gold prices this year, 2024. It is also noteworthy that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) to gold (XAUUSD) ratio is gravitating to ever lower values, while the time-tested indicator of a U.S. recession, based on the US labor market behavior signaling that one is imminent. Thanks to @chinmaysk1 and its full of worth open source script Recession And Bull Run Warning, that I truly believe is one of the best over many.
TVC:DJI
by Pandorra
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February. These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table. Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2. The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/ With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature. Fears & Greed Awakening. 👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively. 👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero. Technical observations 👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough. 👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark. 👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
AMEX:AGG
by Pandorra
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analysis(What we need to know)!Today, I want to analyze the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) for you in the weekly time frame . In fact, the US 10-Year Government Bonds shows the yield rate of ten-year US Treasury bonds and is a measure of investors' confidence in the US economy . As such, this index influences capital allocation across various markets and impacts broader financial conditions . ----------------------------------------------------- The US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) started its upward trend after COVID-19 . After breaking the Important Resistance line and 200_SMA(Monthly) , we can hope for the continuation of US10Y's upward trend. (The Important Resistance line started in 1981 , so it was very important.) According to the Elliott wave theory , US10Y seems to be completing main wave 4 , so main wave 3 was of the Extended type . If the upper line of the descending channel breaks, we can be more sure of the end of main wave 4. I expect US10Y to rise at least as wide as the descending channel width and up to the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) after the descending channel break , completing the main wave 5 . If the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) is broken, we can expect a further increase in US10Y . Now let's see if the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) increases , what will be the effect on other assets? Impact of Rising 10-Year Bond Yields on Key Assets: Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) and Other Cryptocurrencies : As bond yields increase, riskier assets like Bitcoin may face downward pressure. Investors are often drawn to safer investments, such as bonds, when yields rise, making cryptocurrencies less attractive. Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) : Higher bond yields usually put pressure on gold prices. Since gold does not offer any yield, a rising yield on bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing a potential decline in its price. U.S. Stocks : Rising bond yields can lead to lower stock values, particularly in riskier sectors like tech. Higher bond yields often translate into increased borrowing costs, impacting growth and profitability, especially for companies that rely heavily on credit. US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Weekly time frame⏰. 🔔Be sure to follow the updated ideas.🔔 Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:US10YLong
by pejman_zwin
9
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close) It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon. BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by MarkLefevre
2
US 10Y TREASURY: retail sales eased the sentimentThe US Treasury market was under influence of the posted data for the Retail Sales in the US in September, as a potential add-on to the total inflation in the country. Released data were in line with the market consensus, as the indicator was higher by 0,4% in September, leading to yearly increase of 1,7%. Without other posted data which would add to the potential move of the inflation in the US, the 10Y US yields eased a bit, and tested the 4,0% level. Still, at Friday trading session, yields ended the week a bit higher, at the level of 4,075%. In the week ahead there are no macro data scheduled for a release, which could point to potential inflation movements, in which sense, it could be expected a relatively calmer week when US yields are in question. There is some probability that yields could test the 4,0% level for one more time, while odds are quite low for the move toward the upside.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX