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US 10Y TREASURY: 3.8% would be optimal?The Fed has increased reference interest rates by another 25 bps, exactly as per market expectations. On a positive side is that the US inflation continues to slow down, which increases the probability that the Fed will soon stop with further rate hikes. At least, this is the current expectation from the majority of market participants, but whether this will be so, is to be seen till the end of this year. Fed Chair Powell promised another rate hike till the end of the year, while further hikes will depend on future macro data. The 10Y Treasury yields reached the highest weekly level at 4.04%, ending the week at level of 3.95%. The level of 4% has been tested, but it was hard to sustain this level during the week. Based on charts, a reversal is still not over, in which sense, some lower levels might be tested in a week ahead. In this sense, yields might return to the previous level of 3.8%, with a low probability that 3.6% might be tested during the week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for FOMCTreasury yields ended the week lower, as investors are weighing on a next monetary move of the Fed during next week. FOMC is scheduled for July 26-27th, where the majority of market participants are expecting further increase of interest rates by 25bps. The economy is showing modest signs of slow-down, while some economists are expecting a lagging effect of monetary policy, where recession might come as of the end of this year. In this sense, they are of the opinion that the Fed might pause rate hikes at July's meeting. All these are opinions, while the final view on the US economy will be given by Fed officials after the FOMC meeting. During the week 10Y Treasury yields were mostly concentrated around 3.8% level. Although the lowest weekly level was at 3.73%, as of the weekend yields have returned to 3.8%. It could be expected for 10Y yields to continue to oscillate around 3.8% also at the beginning of the week ahead. Certainly, the crucial date during the week would be July 26th, when the Fed will announce its decision on interest rates. Depending on the outcome of the decision, yields might reach 3.7% or 3.6% levels. A move toward 4% does not seem likely at this moment, based on a technical analysis.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Find The Swan!Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation (Gold*PPIACO) divided by money earned from bonds (modified-yields*M2SL) Note that this chart above does not include equities. DJI/(modified-yields) This chart above measures the rate equities become worthy compared to the cost of money. In a sense, as the chart increases, equities take more of the form of "gold" compared to bonds. More about this in the following idea. These charts above show that the Swan occurred in a significant ceiling. A lockdown does not necessarily lead to massive wealth transfer to big companies, and an immediate crash. This chart below shows that the Swan came as an LPSY phenomenon, in the short-term recession no-one remembers. DJI*(modified-yields) vs DJI So in a sense, long-term charts prove that there was not much room above when the Swan occured. And the short-term chart proves that the event occurred at the absolute last moment , when there was no "supply" left (LPSY). The crash was so fast because there was not much volume left in circulation. So the sell-off was quick. The recovery was immediate because the 2020 Swan by itself didn't create structural issues in the economy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I could get my account banned for spreading conspiracy and misinformation. I really don't care.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4
Return To BaseA "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible speeds. Many use the "stochastic" indicator, and rightfully so. The word stochastic may be coming from the Greek word "stochasmos" which means "thought process". To get a new perspective on these charts we must let nature think for us objectively. The mind of nature spoke. The miracle of China is fading. And the same happens when compared to the "treasure" called Taiwan. Many are willing to fight for it. For experimentation, let's compare the US with the Eurozone. For some unknown-to-me reason, GDP has embedded in it the relative strength of currencies between the two countries. Do note that all GDP is measured in USD. In a sense, relative GDP growth is another way of comparing currency strength. We have gone from comparing equities, to comparing GDP. We concluded that comparing GDP is simply comparing purchasing power of two countries. Currency strength comes from yield rates. The power is given from those who make and define money. Supply + Yields. Power = Money Supply * Money Strength MV = PQ Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. You want to see an Easter Egg? Consider the following equations: MV = PQ Q = GDP M = M2SL V = FRED:M2V P = "price level" 1 / P = "currency strength" Currency Strength = Q / MV In the end, it is up to the FED to decide the future.
FRED:GDP
by akikostas
SPX | The Big OneThe Big One. The big question. Buy or sell? A question is easy. An answer can be hard. Most of us here trade because we believe we have a grasp on the answers. And we have several methods on our toolkit to reach a conclusion. One of these methods is belief . That's what we gamble upon. Belief on indices, stocks, ETFs, currencies is what makes us buy them and sell them. Belief aka. Psychology/Humanity Another one is instinct . You know, the thing that we follow when we are completely lost in a mountain path. Instinct aka. Survival A final one is persuasion . The well and tested kind of making an answer out of nothing. It's what politicians have to use, lawyers and figures like Elon. Our friend who, in two separate days in 2022, posted about both the next recession, and the next bubble. Constructive Argument aka. Business Perhaps we can add to these science. But in the end, science unfortunately tends to get mixed up with all of the above three. But science can be much more than that. A scientist must admit that they cannot give definite answers to anything. So for me to come out and give you definite explanations would be business. To answer where SPX can go, we must first orient ourselves. Remember, we are gambling on a mountain with Musk. So this is SPX, and I let an algorithm draw a channel around it. And this is SPX again, but this time I let a monkey draw a line. Humans tend to stop being humans, and let algorithms draw channels for them like the first one. And if you look closely at the second chart, It resembles the main chart. I basically took the SPX price, calculated its trend, and custom plotted the deviation from its trend. It is "safe" to assume that we are below one of the infinite trends. And here comes the dilemma. So where are we? Above trend like the regression told us, or below trend like the mountain monkey said? Elon, being a gambler, told both. So there must be a way out of this conundrum. Until Musks satellites can give us reception in the forest, no help can come. We must resolve this situation the hard way. Even if SPX is going faster than the log-regression tells us, it loses against Bitcoin. But what can that mean? More questions! SPX is comprised of the largest 500 companies. And they are LARGE. The Big Questions are for the Big Companies. And these guys are high stakes poker players, they don't mess around. It is safe to assume that besides being participants, they are the masters of investing. And of course they follow current investing methods like the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). So where am I going with all of this? BlackRock is proposing making the first Bitcoin ETF. So for the first time since its creation, Bitcoin can be a tool of MPT. We can assume that if such a proposal comes to fruition, big players can enjoy the benefits of crypto for the future growth of their companies valuation. In the end, the answer is a question by itself. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Bitcoin is an instrument of Big Tech. Will the creation consume its creator? Or will Bitcoin be sacrificed for the greater good? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
9
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting for Fed Debate over the question whether FED should further increase interest rates or not is still quite active among economists. A Nobel-prise winner and economist Christopher Pissarides is of the opinion that there is no need for the US to further increase interest rates, as noted in an interview with CNBC. Many other influential economists share his opinion. However, Fed Chair Powell previously noted that two more rate hikes should be expected till the end of this year. At the same time, CME's Fedwatch is showing investors expectations of 92% for a 25 bps rate hike at July`s FOMC meeting. Until the final decision, US Treasury yields might express higher volatility, as seen during the previous week. 10Y US Treasuries reached the level of 4% two weeks ago, still, during the previous week, yields have dropped to the short term stop at 3.8%. Lowest weekly level was at 3.76%. Volatility around 3.8% might also continue during the week ahead. At this moment on charts, there is a low probability that yields might return to 3.6%. They will rather oscillate around 3.8% or higher, waiting for the FOMC meeting as of the end of July.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y A break below the 1D MA50 will trigger a 2nd sell-off.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at the top of the Rectangle, so this week's rejection comes as a very natural consequence. If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, the 2nd part of the Rectangle's bearish leg will most likely be triggered. As you see during this long-term pattern, we've had two -19.70% decline sequences and if the current one turns out to be of that magnitude, we are looking at a 3.300% target. Note that 4 days ago we formed a 1D Golden Cross, technically a bullish pattern, but the previous 1D Death Cross (bearish pattern) turned out to be the Rectangle's bottom. On that notion, the Golden Cross may have formed the top. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
US10Y: Excellent long term sell opportunity.The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such significance. Consequently, we consider the current level early enough for a low risk sell position on the long term, targeting the S3 (TP = 3.300%). As you see, the trading structure follows quite similar legs since November and right now we are most likely on a leg 2. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
9
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% will holdFor some time charts were pointing to a potential for US10Y to reach 4% level, which finally occurred during the previous week. Job figures released for June show that average hourly earnings continue to be increased, 0.4% m/m in June or 4.4% on a yearly basis, which might bring inflation further to the higher grounds, which will push FOMC to further increase interest rates. Market sentiment for an increase in July reached 92%, but whether the Fed will have the same perception is about to be seen as of the end of July, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled. 10Y Treasuries started the previous week around 3.8%, however, after released jobs data, yields jumped to the highest weekly level at 4.09%. Considering current sentiment, it could be expected for yields to continue to be elevated during the week ahead. At this moment, there is decreased potential that they might revert to the previous, 3.8% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
$TNX broke downtrend, rates likely keep goingLong ago we mentioned that #FederalReserve had decision to make. They either chose the Economy or the Markets. They CANNOT do both. It's obvious, plus they keep repeating, with rate hikes where their mindset is. Media states that Wall St thinks that #interestrate will be cut. BUT Looking @ short term rates, they look primed to go higher. #bonds ------------- The 1Yr is moving very nicely. BUT The 2YR picked up a lot lately. It's closing in on the 1Yr. 🚨🚨🚨 The 10Yr #yield is cranking & broke downtrend. #TNX How much higher can things go before they break? We've also mentioned that extreme #currency devaluation has bullish consequences (many countries are an example of this) Dilemma EDIT: We're still forming higher highs so market correction likely not there. This tends to happen once the inverted yield curve fixes itself. 2Yr Peak during great financial crisis was 5.28 10Yr Peak was 4.32 #GOLD #silver CRYPTOCAP:BTC
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
The Markets Are Weird...Just when I thought SPX was bearish... ...the bulls pull me back in. Not many of us in here made millions from trading. One of the reasons is that the markets are weird. Just when we be lie ve that the bottom is in, another bottom appears. Just when we be lie ve that more down is coming, no more down comes. When you open TradingView, and look at the prices, don't fall for the trap. These are the prices the seller put up. Just like browsing the retail markets, you browse the trade markets. Price action is what the seller wants you to buy into. The standard, dollar-denominated SPX is shaping into a bear flag. The not-dollar-denominated SPX is shaping into a bull flag. This is basically SPX measured against the average non-US buyer. Which one is right??? It is at these points when buyers/sellers get trapped. They expect one movement, and the opposite comes. The "I shorted the bottom" motto must not be misused, everyone can fall for the trap. The Stock Market is about long-term strategies. What matters is the stance you keep. Your stance must not get shaken-up from the news. Last year was the year the classical investment strategy failed. And that occurred in a period when the US economy was not in a technical recession. While we cannot perform meaningful measurements on this chart, the trend change cannot be ignored. From a period of the equity-bond pair being bulletproof, we are heading into a period when it is full of holes. Don't believe me? Listen to one smarter than me explaining it... www.youtube.com And the culprit of last year's pain was bonds. I am comparing it with the META price action from last year. I expect weakness in bonds for many years. Weakness in Bonds can mean only one thing. Money outflowing from bonds and into alternative investments. Be lie ve it or not, in this environment equities may seem like a reasonable thought. To confirm this, we must perform some relative analysis on charts. The KST-Based MACD indicator I developed works beautifully when we want to analyze the performance of a trend. It basically ignores up-down movement. It takes into consideration the relative strength gained-lost. It is a cousin of RSI, and is analyzed like Stochastic RSI / MACD would be. This indicator helps us pinpoint trend strength shifts . A bearish signal could mean that a fast growth is beginning to slow down. A bullish signal could mean that a slow growth/drop might turn bullish/go faster. I will not go into much detail as to what is considered a bullish/bearish signal. An explanation might get too long for this idea. For now, take my word for it... While the US economy (SPX * DXY) might not outright crash, weakness in SPX is apparent. This chart suggests that the bull-flag that is shaping on the SPX * DXY chart is probably a blow-off-top behavior. This however does not mean that the top is in. Price has just reached the mean. From the above we realize that SPX behavior is nearly identical to the 1953 period. More info about it in this idea below: Not all is well for SPX however... Relative weakness of SPX appears, when compared against other continents. Curiously, a bullish relative performance can be seen when compared against Japan. There are however many obstacles for SPX to jump through. The Bitcoin Bubble was born to swallow the Equity Bubble. Besides crypto, the arch-enemy of SPX are commodities. And the best performer of commodities may be oil. From this chart we conclude that oil will beat anything SPX + Gold might throw at it. Perhaps Buffett was right after all, when he called for investing into oil. Finally, a couple of charts for these eternal Gold Bulls... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. Be lie ve it or not, this is a serious idea. Many hate equity bulls, just like they hate gold bears. Some charts do suggest bullishness for equities. Either we trust the analysis or we dictate it.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
US 10Y TREASURY: staying elevated The resilience of the US economy is evident in the latest posted economic figures. Both business and consumer sentiment is improving, while inflation, expressed through PCE continues to slow down. Still, the pending issue is what the FOMC will do at their meetings till the end of this year. As per Fed`s Chair Powell comments, two more rate increases should be expected. Whether that will actually occur, is to be seen till the end of this year, still, possibility of “soft landing” holds. The 10Y Treasury ended Friday`s trading by reaching a level of 3.89%. It seems that the market is anticipating further rate hikes which might stay for a longer period of time at higher levels. With this move, a new chapter on charts was opened, in which terms, a road toward the 4% is now open. This level might be tested in the coming period. As for the week ahead, 10Y yields will open at level of 3.90%. It could not be noted at this moment whether yields will go higher from this level. In case of a short reversal, 3.8% will be tested, with lower probability that yields might return to the 3.6% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yields are mixed but all point higher, history repeating?🚨🚨🚨 Going to make a stink about #yield again. Short term #interestrates have been creeping higher. Let's👀@ #bond Yields. 6M = holding steady, trading slightly higher. BUT, 1Yr = BROKE RECENT HIGHS. It's at resistance but shows momentum. 2Yr = Closing in on TSX:SVB closure high. This is where #banks began to break down. 10Yr TVC:TNX @ current downtrend is being tested. Break through is good. HUH? Higher = good short term for #stocks. Markets have a history of breaking AFTER rates begin to trade lower and yield curve normalizes. This can take a year or so. Not saying markets will be pumping for a year. Just saying this is historical. We could be setting up for much more upside but with RISK. We posted on the 2008 yield crisis some time ago.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
The Great Train RobberyTrading is a game of poker. - Capitalism is a dirty business. - Like war? - Not exactly. It has important rules one must follow. A game about money is a cold blooded game. One player must deceive the other to win, the so called bluff. Fear is a weapon of war. The house always wins. ... and many more which I don't know. The best bull traps are set when FOMO psychology is established. The best bear traps are set when FEAR psychology is established. These are just some of the methods the game works. I have talked about how QQQ is inside a probable bubble. One that took shape in 2020. As it turns out, Bitcoin is in no different place... Again, in a bubble that took shape in 2020. A structural shift took place at that particular date. We went from decades of QE to a new period of QT. Progressively higher yield rates change the way we invest long-term. Now, price increases are harder than before. Derivatives came to play to mitigate the effects of yield rate increases. The effect of these derivatives is very uncertain. I will attempt to explain one of the many points of view. Many believe that only now institutions are investing into crypto. The BitcoinPrice-to-BitcoinTrust ratio shown before tells a different story. A game about money is a cold blooded game. From a fundamental growth we have gone to an easy-growth. One player must deceive the other to win, the so called bluff. It is as if there is no safe haven for investors. Only the house wins? FOMO is at an all-time-high in Gold, Crude Oil and Crypto. FEAR is at an all-time-high in Equities. If we ignore the fear mongering, we conclude that equities are only now just beginning to grow. Fear is a weapon of war. @The_Unwind explained it very clearly. SPX may in fact be in the beginning of a new era. It is KST that is helping me make all of these conclusions, and I thank him for that. The following period is characterized of significantly diminished growth after many large drawdowns. If that equity growth is bearish in relative terms, how fast is a bullish growth? Crypto proved as an experiment of how fast gains can get. If derivatives were tested in crypto, what could that mean for future equity growth? Are equity derivatives deactivated and have not yet shown their true effect? The house holds the keys to profits. The house always wins. Tread lightly, for this is hollow ground. -Father Grigori
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
7