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Us10y!

SPX/DJI: A Peculiar CorrelationPrice action discounts everything. The most important included. It discounts prejudgement. Price discounts everything every time... ...except when we don't want to allow it to change our hypotheses. High yield rates are synonymous with recession. We are convinced that high yield rates is the thing the majority hates. From this chart above, we conclude that this may not be happening after all... The majority (500 SPX companies) is growing against the minority (30 DJI companies) in periods when yield rates consistently rise. Everything is relative. Recession is relative. Bubbles are relative. A Big-Tech bubble was formed throughout the last two decades. Now, in a high-yield environment, this bubble is fed using derivatives. With incredible correlation, as yield rates increase, the relative density of QQQ derivatives increases. While this is an experimental calculation, only QQQ is showing this kind of derivative filling. SPX and DJI show more stable behavior. Given that in DJI most companies are Big-Tech, the following chart comes up to prove the long-term fundamentals of big vs small. Curiously, yield rates target a range of about 8%, similar to the inflationary highs. Inflation seems to be calming. Many wish rate cuts... A rate cut schedule however may signal the beginning of a recession for the US. Cutting rates will push bond prices higher. Thus, a money outflow from equities and into bonds is created. This outflow will be a cause for SPX weakness. As the SPX*yields chart suggested, a near-term recession may be coming. For the following few years, SPX seems strong as the yield-SPX/DJI correlation showed. It can take decades though for balance to shift decisively. We need both oscillators to get bearish for a convincing move. While Buffett advised investing into oil, but not all oil is the same... (High yield rates for the US will drive prices lower. Yield-SPX correlation points us to SPX bullishness in a high-yield environment) In a progressively higher-yield environment, the outflow from bonds and into equities can get immense. A US debt default will outright crash bond prices, aiding the potential for SPX to move higher. Not all is well for the US though. Money is already seeking other ventures... Don't fall for the news-driven trap. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. A US Default might not be as light as I describe. Who knows how big the scale of such an event might be... P.S.2. I am posting a link to the indicator I am using: It is highly experimental, but I am beginning to get a good grip of it. Many adjustments may follow. This indicator can be used in any timeframe, and in charts of any scale.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
Will the U.S. default on their debt?eather the US default on their debt or raise their debt ceiling; it’s a bad thing either way for the US Dollar & economy; US DEFAULTS🩸: ⭕️They fall into a deep recession ⭕️Roughly 7.8 million jobs will be lost ⭕️Unemployment rate doubles to 8% ⭕️Crime rate/poverty increases ⭕️Stocks & Bonds will be sold off/401(K) effected. Financial markets crash ⭕️Social security payments delayed US RAISES DEBT CEILING💸: ⭕️More money printed out of thin air ⭕️Inflation sores even higher ⭕️Interest Rates keeping getting hiked higher ⭕️More mortgage defaults, so more homes get seized ⭕️Banks hand out less personal/business loans, along with mortgages ⭕️USD strengthens, which is a bad thing as more countries will refuse to do business with them ⭕️More bank failures As a result, we will see an outflow of institutional investments away from equities, with an inflow of investments into commodities like Gold & Silver.
TVC:DXYEducation
by BA_Investments
US10Y Still room to rise but be ready to short the top.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) hit the downside target on our previous signal (see idea below) and is currently rising again: Being above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we see the potential of a diverging Channel Down to emerge and establish itself (dotted lines). The completion of a 1D Death Cross, the first since August 25 2021, ensures that the long-term trend remains bearish. As a result, buy the rest of this bullish Lower High leg and be ready to sell again at the top of the original (blue) Channel Down. If the 1D RSI gets rejected on the dashed Lower Highs trend-line, consider the potential of an early top and sell again. Our target for end of July is 3.150%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
SPX | Waiting For The Miracle To ComeThis year has been very boring... Lot's of horizontal movement, not many interesting news. Well, except of course that "a couple" of banks went bust. But if I didn't tell you that, you couldn't tell where in this chart this occurred... SPX, and the market in general, has been too stubborn despite the importance of the events occurring. On the one hand, this makes sense. This kind of crisis (banking) has come before, so the markets are calm. A crisis comes when nobody expects it to. And by design, a crisis is an unknowing event of unknowing consequences. A bank going bust is not frightening anymore. The market expects the FED to step-in and bail everyone out. But the FED cannot possibly bail anyone out. They cannot print any more money (we might have reached a debt ceiling), and even if they could, they could be unwilling to print more money. Inflation will get worse. So no more money. Dollar has served as the worldwide reserve currency, until now. China amongst other powerful nations, collaborate into creating an alternative reserve currency. One that will be controlled by them, not by a panicking (?) FED. The FED might not be panicking, even if we believe that they are trapped. I believe that they have very good knowledge of what they do, and of the repercussions. Absurdly high interest rates can be a mechanism to increase the dollar purchasing strength. And you need purchasing power when you have enemies (Russia, China etc.) Since 2015, this has worked out tremendously well. The Dollar is making higher highs. Of course, there are many fundamentals (like the Dollar Milkshake) that push the dollar value to new highs. But interest rates are interest-ing (hahaha) to the Dollar. And the Dollar is winning battles against many countries of the world. And with lower money supply, it's value is fated to increase even further. (I like real reality, not augmented reality, that's why I used M2REAL instead of M2SL) The money supply is vacuumed back into the printer which created it. And the power of the vacuum is not big, it is exponential. The Dollar Milkshake Black Hole is now open. But how much can the FED possibly hike? The discrepancy between the FED's rate and the Market's rate is at it's highest level. The FED may not be able to hike any higher against the market's expectance. Who knows what will happen if the FED overcomes this limit... (is it even fundamentally possible?) Inflation is high and it is fated to increase even more. I have posted about it extensively. The preview of this chart idea is broken, oops... Now, oil is looking substantial signs of strength. Oil, the main inflation influencer, is showing significant signs of bottoming. Furthermore, it has retested a trendline that followed us since 2008. Long-term, the only way for Crude is up! And the only way for equities is down! Just to reach the mean, the OIL/SPX ratio has to increase by 75%. So there is much room upwards for commodities... Have you realized what SPX has shaped into? Could this be the anatomy of a bubble? And has it already broken? It seems that the recession is only now just beginning. During normal times for the US economy, equities could grow even as yields were increasing. Now we are entering a period of weakness for the economy. Something has to give, either the equities go bust, or the yield rates. (Equities have much more room to drop than Yields do) A crisis is definitely inching towards us... A final chart for today: Equities used to grow as money was created. Now this chart has immense dynamics to move downwards. In a sense, equities have MUCH room downwards, even if money gets created. This comes to prove that equities cannot absorb any more money supply. Money printing from the FED cannot possibly help equities, no matter what they do, they are trapped inside the bearish wedge. Only way for equities is down! And similarly for SPX Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. What could these charts mean? Are they of any meaning after all? A crisis is definitely itching towards us... I HAVE to test. All the time. Or I get this... this ITCH. It must be hardwired into the system or something. -Wheatley, Portal 2
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by akikostas
47
US 10Y TREASURY: a “dead cross”A $31.4 trillion debt ceiling was in the spotlight of the markets during the previous week. The possibility of the US debt default would certainly have large repercussions not only to the US but also would be felt through the rest of the world. As per currently available official data, the estimation is that the US might default on its debt in June or July, the latest, which is labeled by the government as “significant risk”. As for the Fed rate hikes, the majority of investors are of the opinion that the Fed should stop with further rate increases, as it might hurt the economy more than previously estimated. The US 10Y T-notes ended the week at level of 3.463% as investors were digesting the potential outlook of the US economy after recent developments and rate hikes. The University of Michigan report has been released during the previous week, providing expectations on inflation for the next 5 years. The majority of participants in the survey answered 3.2%, which is higher from the 3.0% estimated during the previous month. Current sentiment on US10Y T-notes is neutral, as RSI moves around level of 50. The moving average of 50 days just made a cross with its MA200 counterpart from the upside, forming a so-called “dead cross”. In technical analysis this indicates the high potential for a downside in the future period. However, for the week ahead, charts are pointing to some potential for the 10Y T-notes to reach 3.30%, but would most certainly oscillate around $3.40 during the week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
spx500, updated [primary]good evening,,, follow up to my last post on the nasdaq. it is thanks to this particular picture, that the nasdaq count becomes possible. --- the spx500 came down in 5 waves from all time high, labeled wave (a). from the 2022 lows, it begun retracing in what looks like a perfect 3 wave move. there's a beautiful running flat in there which was very tricky to see. --- i believe the spx500 is about to complete wave c of wave (b) into this summer. once it does, i will give you a comprehensive update + some downside targets to look forward to. ✌
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Eloquent
2
nasdaq, updated [primary]good evening, and happy sunday. --- decided to share the updated version of my count tonight,,, >the key to this count is the spx500, which will be shared in the next post (keep an eye out for it). --- what i'm portraying here is called a zig-zag. the nasdaq came down from all time high in 5 waves, 5 waves is labeled either wave 1 or wave a. in this case, to be extremely conservative, i am choosing to label it as wave a. --- once 5 waves down was attained, the nasdaq begun to retrace the 5 wave move, which is called wave b. wave b can take many different forms, shapes, and vibes. in this case, i'm calling it a regular zig-zag, thanks to the clarity which the spx500 + bitcoin are portraying. --- my target for wave b has been the same since the 2022 lows,,, 15.2k. >got you an update once wave b has been completed later this summer. ✌
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Eloquent
1
SPX | Of Course I'm Lying (?)I am not lying. I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it. I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious. Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of you know, this is very hard sometimes. In 99% of a chart's movement, the trend is continuing. A significant trend change is very rare. Significant evidence for a trend reversal are VERY RARE, and not apparent in all timeframes. This is a chart that shows clear evidence of reversals. On the weekly timeframe, SPX analysis has showed significant evidence of peaks and bottoms. Believe it or not, SPX and NDX are showing evidence of going long. But what about long-term? Now THAT is a hard conversation. KST (and many other indicators) can show us incredibly early signs of price stagnation. Signs of stagnation in long-term charts however, can take DECADES to play out. SPX/M2SL Technicals were peaking in 1957, but the peak in SPX prices came 6 years later. For the standard SPX chart, things took even longer to play out. It is as if we are in 1957. And there is more evidence towards such a realization. What I did here was basically compare the .com bubble with the Roaring '20s. The .com bubble was just a very-fast version of the Roaring '20s. If we slow down NDX a little, we end up with the following: The effect of bubbles is apparent in different periods, and in different scales. The same laws that shaped the 1950-1980 price movement, may be dictating the movement of today's stock market. The Roaring '20s still has an effect on our moves. We may be living inside the reality-distortion field of the .com bubble. KST Peaking is an EXTREMELY early sign of stagnation. Price continues upwards, albeit at a slower rate. Now as we speak, KST reaches this exact point of peaking. This has proved an extremely early sign of stagnation. Will this time be different, and instead KST is showing an immediate sign, an abrupt crash? Perhaps things are too simple after all. Long Live the US! P.S. Remember, the stock market is for the patient ones, those who plan for decades ahead. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPXLong
by akikostas
13
SPX | Another LieOrdinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When the first bank failed, the consensus shifted from calm to fearful. Now the market is pricing-in the coming yield-peak. This goes hand-in-hand with the yield-curve correcting. At that time, the market expects only short-term yields to increase, while long-term ones will slowly and steadily drop. Back in 2018, we were begging for the FED to lower the interest rates so as the economy to "grow". Little did we know, that by lowering rates we were pulling the rug from underneath our own feet. Equities growing when cutting rates is cheaty... Now we have the same. We beg for the FED to stop burning money and calm the liquidity crisis that is building-up around us. This bankruptcy may prove an event that causes even a premature FED pivot. At any rate, both charts and simple logic call for a pause in the rate-hike schedule. So what can we expect? What I talked about in the original cake. Unsurprisingly, I expect equities to grow next year. Their price will increase while their true "value" will drop. While a sell-off may occur in the weeks to come, this will give the signal that the bottom is in. I believe however that this capitulation will not be the main "event". The 2018 "Recession" had some violent drops. A sudden 20% drop in 3 months in Q4-2018 was definitely something that conquered the headlines. Passing through that gave the signal that a bottom was already in. The same consensus may be brewing now. Surely the FED cannot tighten further. Surely they will step-in an cautiously calm the financial markets. The calm will come, and it will stay for some months. Until the calm erodes. And if rates drop, the economy itself will silently erode. Until the building collapses, at a time nobody expects it to. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. There are two ways to become rich. Theft and Inheritance. -Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire For the rich to get richer, they must rob. They are robbing the unknowing gamblers/investors. In the era of information, in order to rob you must fool the public by changing-up the picture. Present the eroding building (economy aka. SPX*yields) with a luxurious cover (SPX). And hide the treasure in the dirtiest place of all. Find the treasure. Don't fall for the trap.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
6
GOLD LONG TO $2,022📈(1HR TF)This here is a risky trade as its a counter trade. However, I'm willing to take a small buy risk, as a hedge against our sell positions. Market has been ranging nonstop for the past month & possibly could for another day or 2, so I'm expecting these buys to push back into the upper range & create an extended Wave 2. Buying Confluences: 🚫Market Consolidation. 🚫Sellers Exhausted. 🚫3 Sub Wave Correction Pending. Drop a like/follow if you agree or let me know what you think✅
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
M2SL | Mo Money Mo Problems!Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to analyze. But they are very important. Since I haven't taken the time to create TradingView indicators that calculate cycles, I will instead use a spreadsheet. For the following charts, I basically take all historical data of a cyclic chart and export that data. For every week or month, I calculate the average distance from the mean. With that, I try to calculate the "expected distance" from the mean, for each time of the year. Natural Gas prices one might say, are lower during the summer months. So an unusually high price in summer may become explosive during the winter. Today's main subject will be money supply. Since the January's M2SL data hasn't yet updated, I will try to guess how much money supply we can expect the following months. There is a cousin to the M2SL index which is updated weekly, and it is WM2NS. This index however as you can see on the chart above fluctuates from M2SL throughout the year. So, the regular WM2NS price should be adjusted based on it's cycle against M2SL. This curve shows the expected yearly fluctuation of the ratio, compared to the mean, Specific care has to be taken when we calculate the "fundamental cycle duration". Some cycles last 2 months, 3 months, or 6 months. The fundamental cycle of the economy is 3 months which repeats 4 times during the year. While this may prove irrelevant, It is incredibly important in the "cycle spectrum" creation. If we consider a 1M duration of the fundamental cycle, the chart isn't as representative as the 2M one. The Diesel / Gasoline cycle is incredible. This comes to prove that these two are highly correlated. With the same method we can compare gasoline price with crude oil price. For fuel prices, it seems that the end of the year can serve as a good baseline for the outcome of the next year. Absolute and relative are at their minimum in this time of year. Similar charts can be drawn for DJI. While more chaotic (wider error lines), weeks 10 and 44 (March and October-November) appear as the weakest periods of the year. So what M2SL price can we expect in the following days? I am an impatient man, I cannot wait for the results!!! After a substantial drop in money supply, one might fear that further downside is to follow. There are charts that calm such fears. Price has never touched the Quadratic Kernel indicator (a form of historic moving-average), and it may never touch it. When RRPONTTLD increases, money supply decreases (I am oversimplifying because I don't know the exact specifics). Bullish stochastics may signal more upside for money supply. Finally, I will analyze the protagonist chart: Suddenly, the 1.2% increaase doesn't sound that extraordinary... Sometimes, a simplistic analysis like this one above, may prove correct like this one below: Final thought: With inflation higher than expected and money supply about to increase yet again, how high of an inflation can we expect? With commodities bull-flagging against money supply itself, and Bitcoin bull-flagging against the Tech-Bubble, things can get pretty bad for equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I have analyzed several cycles for different kinds of commodities. If you are interested ask me so as to post them.
FRED:WM2NS
by akikostas
9
Key short term levels to watch on the US 10Y yieldUS GDP Q1 GDP figures were released yesterday and showed a significantly slower rate of growth that expected, printing an overall figure of 1.1% Q1 growth. The problem facing investors is that economic data suggests that inflation could remain sticky and the central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week. So we are taking a look at the US 10Y yield chart to identify the key levels that you need to watch short term. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
4-27-23 [us10y]hello, here is one more layer of confluence, to back up my spx case. --- to the untrained eye, this looks like total, nonsensical chop, but to a space explorer, it can easily be viewed as a 3-3-3. what is a 3-3-3? glad you ask anon: a 3-3-3, is a very corrective structure, designed to kill time mostly- labeled w-x-y. wxy = double zig-zag these channel nicely, as portrayed in the image above. --- once this double zig-zag concludes into the summer time, i predict the stock market will crash. --- enjoy it till then, and as always --- this is not financial advice, i am merely an artist, bringing to you, art.
TVC:US10Y
by Eloquent