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Yield Curve Reinverts on Easing Rate Cut ExpectationsFed sets the rates. Rates guide treasury yields. Fed remains data dependent. Incoming data creates nuanced shifts in yield spreads. The September jobs report revealed 254,000 jobs added, significantly exceeding expectations of 147,000, with August figures also revised upward. This strong report, along with the JOLTS data from earlier in the week, indicates that the job market remains strong and not as weak as previously anticipated. Despite the strong jobs data, the yield curve has inverted once again. While Mint Finance has previously highlighted that recession risks can lead to the yield curve inverting, that is not the only reason. This time around, the inversion is being driven by delay in rate cut expectations. CME’s Yield Futures enables investors to deftly express their views on the path of rates ahead. JOB MARKET SHOWS MIXED SIGNS OF RECOVERY The latest JOLTS figures showed U.S. job openings rising from 7.711 million to 8.090 million in August, with the previous month's numbers revised up by 38,000. Although job openings remain near a two-year low, the increase is a positive sign. Rise in job openings was primarily due to increase in construction jobs (+138k), which are often seasonal, and government jobs (+103k). However, the overall report paints a mixed picture. Hiring fell by 99k from the previous month, and while total separations dropped by 317,000, the largest contributor was a 159,000 contraction in quits. With fewer hires and a large drop in quits, the data suggests the job market is not particularly strong, as workers hesitate to leave their current positions with fewer being hired into new roles. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) showed 254,000 jobs added in September, with health care, social assistance, and leisure and hospitality sectors leading the gains. As a result of these additions, the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. Hourly earnings grew by 4% YoY, with the previous month's figures revised upward to 3.9%. RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS TEMPER Further rate cuts are still expected, but the anticipated pace has slowed. Before the PCE inflation report on September 27, CME FedWatch indicated a cumulative 75 basis point reduction over the next two FOMC meetings in November and December. Source: CME FedWatch CME FedWatch tool also indicated a high probability of 100 basis-point cuts last month. However, after the encouraging PCE report, which showed inflation easing to 2.2%—its lowest level since 2021 and close to the Fed's target—the probability of a cumulative 50 basis-point cut has steadily risen. Following the jobs report last week, the probability of cumulative 50 basis-points cuts surged to 80%. The trend suggests that market participants are increasingly expecting a soft landing, with inflation easing and the job market remaining strong. A soft landing reduces the urgency for aggressive rate cuts, giving the Fed more flexibility to monitor the effects of previous rate hikes and lower rates more gradually. Source: CME FedWatch Crucially, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has suggested a similar outlook for rate trajectory. While speaking at the National Association for Business Economics, he suggested that if the economy continues on its current trajectory, he expects two more smaller rate cuts this year, or cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points at the next two meetings. FOMC projections also signalled a similar rate outlook for 2024 as signalled by the dot plot below. Source: FOMC YIELD CURVE RE-INVERTS Bond yields have increased sharply to their highest level since August on tempered rate cut expectations. Crucially, the increase has been much sharper for the 2-year yields indicating near-term expectations of elevated rates for longer. The result has been a re-inversion in the yield spread with 2-year & 10-year treasury yields now on par. Notably, the yield futures spread has declined more sharply than the treasury yield spread. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Recent economic data points to rising likelihood of a soft landing. Expectations of rapid rate cuts have tempered accordingly. While rates are expected to continue declining, the pace is expected to slow with a cumulative 50 basis points (“bps”) of further cuts in 2024 likely. As rates remain elevated for an extended period, the yield curve has begun to invert again. With current inflation easing, the inflation premium on long-term treasuries has diminished. FOMC projections suggest a gradual path toward rate normalization, suggesting a potential near-term yield curve inversion before it eventually normalizes. Investors can express views on this outlook through CME yield futures. Further, the yield futures spread is trading at a (~5bps) premium to the treasury yield spread, as the futures contracts approaches expiry on October 31, the futures spread will converge towards the treasury yield spread which further benefits the short position. CME Yield Futures are quoted directly in yield with a 1 basis point (“bp”) change representing USD 10 in one lot of Yield Future contract. This simplifies spread calculations with a 1 bp change in spread representing profit & loss of USD 10. The individual margin requirements for 2Y and 10Y Yield futures are USD 330 and USD 320, respectively. However, with CME’s 50% margin offset for the spread, the required margin drops to USD 325 as of October 8, making this trade even more compelling. A hypothetical trade setup comprising of long 2Y yield October futures and short 10Y yield October futures with reward to risk ratio of 1.5x is described below. Entry: 13.5 bps Target: -1.5 bps Stop Loss: 23.5 bps Profit at Target: USD 150 (15 bps x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 100 (10 bps x 10) Reward/Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Short
by mintdotfinance
Very close to Yield Curve Inversion, AGAINAfter #InterestRates were cut people were expecting a furious wave of buying, this has not come into fruition. Recent events: 2Yr Yield rallied substantially. 10Yr #Yield bottomed when we called it, has not run as much as it's shorter term counterpart. We're close to inversion again! Colored areas = POTENTIAL Inverse Head & Shoulder = BOTTOM. Worth noting, TVC:TNX has a higher right shoulder. Further analysis: We are seeing a Negative Divergence on $DJI. Volume has been lessening as the days go by. TVC:RUT Small Caps are LOWER and trading in a tightening range.
TVC:US02Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US 10Y TREASURY: surprised by jobs dataThe major macro news during the previous week were posted nonfarm and unemployment figures in the US for September. The nonfarm payrolls significantly beated market expectation, by reaching the figure of 254K, while unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1% from 4,2% during August. The markets are now convinced that the Fed will slow down rate cuts till the end of this year to 25 bps, considering the high resilience of the US economy. Previously, markets were pricing another 50bps cuts. The US yields adjusted accordingly to new expectations. The 10Y US benchmark was moving around 3,80 during the week, but Friday's jobs data pushed the yields to the higher grounds, ending the week at level of 3,96. Yields were testing the level of 4% previously. It could be expected that the markets will spend a week ahead by digesting the jobs data, in which sense, the 4,0% level could be tested during the week. At this moment, there is no indication that yields could move to the higher grounds. On the opposite side, there could be some relaxation, at least to the level of 3,9%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: pricing the PCE easingThe inflation measured through the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index showed signs of further decrease in August. The Index was standing at the level of 2,2% on a yearly basis, which was a bit lower from market expectations. The US Treasury yields eased after the release of data, bringing the 10Y US benchmark to the level of 3,75% as of the end of the week. During the first half of the week, the 10Y yields were exploring higher grounds, reaching the highest weekly level at 3,82%. At the same time, released final GDP Growth data for Q2 showed no changes on a quarterly level of 3% growth, which pointed to investors that the US economy was growing in a moderate pace in the environment of high interest rates, and that further drop in interest rates will be supportive for the boost of the economy in the coming period. Current charts are pointing to a probability for further easing of the US yields in a week ahead. The non-farm payrolls are set for a release, which might bring back some modest volatility on the markets. Still, some significant moves in yields should not be expected. The levels around 3,7% might be tested in the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
U.S. Dollar Index is near to fall. Soon..The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19. Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all the history peak, while Forex Eur/Usd (EURUSD) pair just has flashed a positive 2024 YTD return, jumping above 1.10 psychological degree. The US Dollar continues to weaken following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which have increased a new portion of expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank in September. Furthermore, last week’s US economic data revealed that both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggest that inflation is easing. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stressed on Sunday that the US central bank should adopt a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Daly countered economists' concerns that the US economy is facing a sharp slowdown that would warrant rapid interest rate cuts. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that central bank officials should be careful not to maintain a restrictive policy longer than necessary. Although it's uncertain whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month, failing to do so could negatively impact the labor market, according to CNBC. Additionally, the decline in the US yields contributes to downward pressure for the Greenback. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.05% and 3.85%, respectively, at the time of writing. This week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech. In a bottom line, the major technical graph for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates on possible huge decline for the next upcoming 12 to 18 months. The secondary RSI(14) graph indicates also, the bearish sentiment prevails.
TVC:DXY
by Pandorra
US10Y Look for a 1D MA50 rejection.A month ago (August 21, see chart below) we argued why the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) would go lower with the Fed having no choice but the cut the Interest Rates: Well the Fed did it and cut the rates not just by -0.25% but -0.50%, initiating the new cut Cycle. Now let's look at the US10Y's price action on a smaller time-frame, namely the 1D. As you can see the pattern is a double Channel Down, with the price trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since July 03 2024. That is the current Resistance and until it breaks (1D candle closing above it), we should be looking every time for a sell near it. Assuming the Bearish Legs of the diverging (dotted) Channel Down are symmetrical like those of May and June, our Target is 3.450%, representing a -10.50% decline (same as August's Bearish Leg). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
US 10Y TREASURY: surprising 50 bps cutAlthough markets were divided on whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps at their September meeting, still, the Fed brought some sort of surprise by cutting interest rates more aggressively, by 50 bps. Considering Fed's dual mandate, to keep inflation at targeted levels and a stable jobs market, the analysts are now noting that, with the latest rate cuts, the Fed switched attention to the US jobs market. The US yield reacted to the Fed's decision in a mixed manner. Still, the 10Y US yields turned to the upside, despite Fed Chair Powell's comment that more rate cuts are coming till the end of this year. The 10Y US yields reached the lowest weekly level at 3,6%, and soon reverted to the upside, ending the week at the level of 3,74%. While digesting Feds comments, the market is currently seeking an equilibrium level for the US yields. Based on current sentiment, there is some probability that yields might shortly revert back toward the level of 3,8%. However, on a longer time scale, the trend for 10Y US yields is on the downside.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Nasdaq-100 Index. The Psychological Aspects of Round NumbersIn the complex dance of commerce and finance, price tags play a key role in influencing consumer decisions. While it’s a fairly common psychological assumption that every penny and cent counts when it comes to getting the best deal, human psychology often deviates from this linear logic. In this educational post, we explore the irresistible appeal of round numbers, and how they often trump other considerations when making transaction decisions. The Irresistible Attraction to Round Numbers We do often believe that every penny counts in our transactions. However, research shows a striking deviation from this assumption. In scenarios where people choose a price, such as tipping at a restaurant or donating to beloved author or website, they disproportionately choose round numbers — like $ 5, $ 10 or $ 20 — far more than would be predicted by chance alone. One could argue that this is due to the rejection of change, a reluctance to waste time on small change, and the unwillingness to bother with complex mathematics. However, even in cases where the exact bill is not an issue (e.g., cashless card payments), the preference remains. For example, diners faced with a non-round bill (for example $ 34.67) are more likely to give non-round tips ($ 15.33), but only so that the total is a neat round number ($ 50). Why do we prefer round prices? And what is the psychology behind it? 1) Cognitive simplicity: The human mind is programmed to simplify and seek simplicity. Numbers like 10, 50, or 100 inherently feel “cleaner” and less chaotic than 17, 62, or 84. This desire for neatness gives us a sense of accomplishment. 2) Perception of quality: The marketing world has long capitalized on this preference for round numbers. Brands strategically associate round prices with premium quality. On the other hand, odd prices like “29.99” or “34.99,” while ubiquitous, subconsciously signal here's a discount or a bargain. 3) This preference is not limited to prices. People exhibit this tendency to round in other aspects of life as well. Our repeated exposure to round numbers is common in a variety of contexts, both in everyday life and during financial transactions, which contributes to an unconscious bias toward them. This cognitive ease with round numbers further perpetuates the preference. The stock market’s behavior and its fluctuations around these significant, round numbers is not a coincidence in general; there is a psychological explanation. Market Psychology of Round Numbers When the market reaches round numbers such as 500 or 1,000, 2,500 or 5,000, 10,000 or 20,000, it attracts the attention of both active traders and casual investors who may not even be actively following the market. As in everyday life, people often use round numbers as thresholds for making investment decisions. For example, some may decide to enter the market if a major index such as the Nasdaq-100 has exceeded 10,000, or they may decide to sell some of their stocks if the Nasdaq-100 has reached 20,000. These round numbers act as magnets for sellers as they mark important milestones given the relatively high rarity of a round number. If the market has the potential to move higher, it first needs to absorb the selling pressure around the round numbers and establish equilibrium before continuing its move higher. If we analyze the market behavior over the last decades, we will see clear patterns at round numbers. Let us take a closer look at a few examples. 1) Indian Stock Index, Sensex BSE:SENSEX Sensex, one of the major market indices in India, has its share of round number syndrome. For example, when Sensex reached 10,000 points in Q1 2006, it experienced significant market activity, with the index fluctuating by as much as 30 percent in Q2. The same phenomenon occurred at multiples of 10,000. Thus, at 20,000 points, which the Indian market reached at the end of 2007, the index collapsed by more than 60 percent over the next 4 quarters of 2008. Later the 20,000 mark has been reached again in the second half of 2010, and the index again suffered a decline of more than 20 percent during 2011. Later Indian stock market index reached the 30,000 mark in the first quarter of 2015, and its led to a price decline of more than 20 percent in the next 4 quarters, while 40,000 mark in the fourth quarter of 2019 - led to the market decline by 30 percent on the wave of COVID-19 sales. 2) Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD As in the previous example, round numbers often become key points of congestion for Gold market, when the market tries to break even higher, but the forces of buyers and sellers may be unequal. For example, spot Gold reached the $ 1,000 mark for the first time in the Q1 2008, which, following the logic discussed above, led to sales and 30 percent decrease. Gold spot buyers have tried a lot to reach $ 2,000 mark in 2011, but it brought the market down by 45 percent over the next 5 years. There were also a lot of unsuccessful attempts to jump above $ 2,000 in 2020-2022. Finally Gold spot surged above $ 2,000 only in Q4 2023, its led to further price increase, up to 2500 US dollars per ounce. 3) US stock index, Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX The Nasdaq-100 index approached the 10,000 point mark for the first time in Q1 2020, which could have contributed to the sell-off. In fact, this is what happened, as the market then plunged by more than 30 percent in March 2020, and only thanks to monetary support measures and the reduction of US interest rates to almost zero, the index was able to break the 10,000 barrier by the end of Q2 2020. Reaching the 20,000 mark by the market index in Q2 2024, as we see, again leads to increased turbulence in US tech stocks and talk of imminent monetary easing by the Fed. Final Thoughts 1) It is important to note that round number syndrome and increased seismic activity near rounds number is a short-term phenomenon. Once the selling pressure is absorbed, the market resumes its movement based on other factors and develops independently of these already passed milestones. 2) Understanding the market behavior at round numbers can provide valuable information to investors. These round numbers act as psychological triggers for investors, driving their decision-making processes. 3) Understanding this phenomenon allows investors to make more informed choices and understand the short-term fluctuations that occur during these stages.
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Pandorra
US 10Y TREASURY: Fed on the moveThe US inflation data, posted during the previous week, clearly showed that the inflation in the US is slowing down. It is still above the Fed's target of 2%, but it opens the space for the Fed to cut interest rates. Markets are almost sure that the first rate cut will occur at September's FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for September 19th. The market positioned itself in accordance with expectations during the previous weeks, by decreasing yields on the US Treasury bonds. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark reached the lowest weekly level at 3,61%, still ending the week at 3,65%. Considering that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, some increased volatility could be highly expected. The 10Y Treasury yields might oscillate a bit up to the levels around 3,70%, looking for an equilibrium. Fed Chair Powell’s rhetoric after the meeting would shape the investors sentiment, in which sense, some higher movements might be possible. Still, on a long-run, the interest rates and yields would certainly trade with a clear downtrend.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: NFP implied yieldsFriday was the major trading day on the US financial markets, after the release of jobs data for August. The US nonfarm payrolls came weaker than market was expecting, which implied market higher volatility. The nonfarm payrolls came at the level of 142K, while the market was expecting to see 160K for the month. On the positive side was a modest decrease in the unemployment rate from 4,3% to 4,2% in August. Such weak figures were an indication to markets that the Fed might need to cut interest rates at least by 50 bps in order to support the economy, which might be potentially entering into a recession. Of course, the US economy is still holding in a relatively good shape, where relatively weaker jobs figures should be taken with a reserve. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was pushed to the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at 3,65% at one occasion at Friday's trading session. Still, yields are ending the week at the level of 3,71%. The week ahead will be used by investors to digest the latest jobs data and reassess their positions accordingly. In this sense some adjustments in yields are possible to the upside. The level of 3,8% might be tested for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Hmm... Something Interesting & Sweet is Brewing in T-Bond MarketIEF is a longer maturity, longer duration play on the US Intermediate Treasury segment. The fund focuses on Treasury notes expiring 7-10 years from now, which have significantly higher yield and interest rate sensitivity than the notes that make up our broader 1-10 year benchmark. IEF`s average YTM is significantly higher than US-T Aggregated benchmark's. Of course, the higher yield comes with significantly higher sensitivity to changes in rates, particularly those at the longer end of the yield curve (10-year key rate duration). The fund changed its index from the Barclays US Treasury Bond 7-10 Year Term Index to the ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index on March 31, 2016. This change created no significant change in exposure. IEF's narrow focus and concentrated portfolio have been popular, so the fund is stable and easy to trade. The main technical graph represents IEF' Total return (div-adjusted) format, and indicates on developing H&S structure, as US Federal Reserve tight monetary policy seems is near to ease.
NASDAQ:IEF
by Pandorra
Head & Shoulders pattern: 10 year yield could drop to 2.87%The series of tops shaped notorious Head & Shoulders pattern on 10-Year Treasury yield (TNX). The tallest peak is the Head and Shoulders are on both sides. The Neckline is the support that is built through valleys of the Head. The price has breached the Neckline this summer triggering the pattern bullish scenario. The target is calculated by subtracting the height of the Head (from top to Neckline) from breakdown point on the Neckline. It is located around 2.87%. Almost 1% down from the current level
TVC:TNXEducation
by aibek
Gold predicting that Big falling rates cycle has almost overThere are several factors that can drive gold prices up in long term. Some of the key factors include: 1. Global Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. Investors tend to flock to gold as a store of value when traditional investments like stocks and bonds are perceived as risky. 2. Inflation: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. When inflation is high and inflation expectations are going even higher, the purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases, leading investors to turn to gold as a way to preserve their wealth. 3. Geopolitical Tensions: Political instability, conflicts, and geopolitical tensions can also drive up gold prices. In times of uncertainty or conflict, investors may seek the safety of gold as a reliable asset. 4. Central Bank Policies: The monetary policies of central banks, such as interest rate decisions and quantitative easing measures, can impact gold prices. While investors thoughts that lower interest rates and expansionary monetary policies tend to be supportive of higher gold prices are widespread, in reality - higher due to inflationary concerns interest rates are more supportive for gold prices. 5. Demand and Supply: Like any commodity, gold prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Factors such as jewelry demand, industrial demand, and gold production levels can all impact the price of gold. These are just a few of the factors that can drive gold prices up. It's important to note that gold prices can be influenced by a wide range of economic, geopolitical, and market factors. The main Graph is an Annual chart for ratio between Gold prices in US Dollars (XAUUSD) and US Inflation (USCPI). In technical terms this graph indicates that 40-years deflationary plateau, and monetary cycle of falling USD rates has almost over, while due to mentioned above reasons, Gold can start its ride to outperform inflation within many upcoming years.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Pandorra
US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting for a rate cutAfter Powell`s the “time has come” for the Fed to pivot, and the latest PCE data, markets were adjusting their expectations for the level of Fed's rate cuts in the coming period. The Julys PCE data came surprisingly lower from market expectations, of 2.5% on a yearly basis, compared to 2.6% expected by markets. At the same time, investors are considering both personal income, which was higher by 0.3% in July, and personal spending which was higher by 0.5% for the month. The 10Y treasury yields started the previous week around 3.78%, however, they are ending it at 3.90%. Highest weekly level was 3.92% on one occasion. The week ahead might also trigger higher volatility. The Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate for August are scheduled for a release, where any surprises might induce higher market moves. However, at the current point, there is some probability that the level of 4.0% might be tested, but not higher grounds. There is also a potential for a short reversal, but not too lower from current levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX