✅US10Y SWING LONG🚀
✅US10Y broke the falling resistance
And now I am locally bullish biased
So I think we will see the price
Go up soon towards the target above
LONG🚀
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Us10y!
Long term or short term top for rates? $US10Y ChartMany people look at this chart and start their trend line in 1981. If you start it at the 1987 peak, you get more reactions including the one we just had. Is this time different? we closed above the 200 month moving average for the first time ever. If that is flipped as support then this time is different! I will also say that the inverse head and shoulders pattern played out perfectly. I am short term bearish here.
US10Y Yeild Trading The Bullish SequenceIn this update we review the recent price action in the US10Y Yeild and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
USDCAD has bearish factorsBond yields are starting to fall
And oil is rising again, as USOIL is currently at $114.17 a barrel, which supports the Canadian dollar
So the USDCAD pair has bearish factors
technically
The end of a five-wave impulse rise and the beginning of a strong decline
Important observation area
2820 - 2780
US10Y broke a historic trend-line from 1981. What's next?The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield, broke last month above a historic Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since September 1981. This chart is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. By doing so, it also broke above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in history as well.
Even though it hasn't broken above the previous Lower High of November 2018, which is currently the Resistance, we have to consider the implications of this historic break-out. The 1M RSI has also hit a multi-year long Higher Highs trend-line and got rejected, making it a Resistance. Unless the November 2018 High breaks, we may see the 1M MA200, even the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) being tested as Supports.
A break above the November 2018 High though, will basically confirm a historic change on yields, especially as the Fed has already announced plans to continue raising the interest rates aggressively in an attempt to battle the raging inflation.
The green trend-line on the chart represents the Federal Funds Rate and as you see its Highs have historically matched roughly the Highs of the US10Y. Since the Rate is now still relatively low and as per the Fed's remarks, we are still early in the rate hike cycle, we can see the US10Y break much higher in an aggressive manner in the following months.
So what do you think? Does this break mark a historic change on bond yields?
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Joe Gun2Head Trade - US 10 Year Yield topping out?Trade Idea: US 10 Year Yield topping out?
Reasoning: Head and shoulders top on the hourly chart
Entry Level: 2.842
Take Profit Level: 2.617
Stop Loss: 2.922
Risk/Reward: 2.81:1
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$AGG - US bonds ready for a bounce?I think we are quite close to seeing a bounce in US Bond ETF's. With the 10 year falling back under 3.0% and bond charts in general showing lots of divergency between price and indicators, i think we can get a bit of a bounce here. Also some good volume coming in on the AGG US bond etf which shows interest emerging.
DXY - CPI Data Day 💣Since it is a big day for the dollar it is only right we take a look at the DXY to get a better perspective on what we can expect.
I am in two minds - the daily chart would suggest we have an incomplete compression that needs to push higher to take out early sellers.
BUT
The four-hour charts suggests that breakout sellers have already been liquidated and that it may be time the buyers get a stop hunt.
What will happen is unclear but at least we have two scenarios we can work with depending on price action.
Keep this in the back of your mind during trading today and make your own judgement.
Waiting for the worst...In the chart we have the SPX versus the US10Y (US 10 Year Government Bonds Yeld Rate, in the blue line).
We are at a peak moment.
In principle, the rate in US10Y is inverse, that is, when it goes down, more people are buying — more people leave the stock market and buy government bonds.
The correlation with SPX is high in periods of extreme volatility, as shown in the circles.
Frighteningly, the US10Y is close to the same levels as March/2018 and October/2018.
If it drops like it did before, will we see a strong correction in global markets?
Analyzing the US10Y alone:
The US10Y has broken up a long bearish channel.
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates an extremely stretched value, signaling a possible reversal to the downside.
On the weekly chart it is in a resistance test region, similar to the periods mentioned.
US10Y-US02Y Yields Are Steepening NOWAhead of incredibly important CPI data to be released tomorrow, we are seeing yields steepen in a very dramatic fashion. In comparison to each of the last 3 inversions, this one is not even close to the past.
It is important to understand that when yields steepen , it systematically leads to downside in the SPX/NASDAQ. It has been the indicator of almost every recession since 1980 .
Now we can't jump to conclusions just yet, we can only try to anticipate what comes next.
Tomorrow key CPI data gets released which is why markets are selling off in the face of it. This data will be the reason for the next move up or down.
Focusing back on the chart, we can see just how far yields have deviated from the 200MA. In comparison to the past, this is the farthest divergence on record.
IF yields were to retest that 200MA, it would almost certainly lead the markets down a very dark path rather quickly.
We are seeing a clear momentum gain on the RSI to match this.
Now let's take a look at the previous two inversions not shown in the chart; (2000, 2008)
First, take note of where the 200MA is here in comparison to now. Second, notice when yields are Steepening the SPX is falling. They have an inverse correlation.
Take a look at how extended the NASDAQ is still;
The same can be said about the SPX;
There are very significant moves being made in the markets at this moment, and it will take absolute diligence to ensure survivability if the markets take us down a dark path ahead.
For now, pay attention to the data tomorrow. If it is optimistic, we could see some short-term relief. If it is worse than anticipated, watch CLOSELY! The projected CPI tomorrow is 8.4% .
That's your best case going into tomorrow (April 12th) . Use it as a measure.
Possible top on 10Y US GOVT Yield? After yesterdays rally it could be that we have hit a possible top in the rise of 10Y Govt Bond Yield.
If this is correct it could signal a possible continued rally in more speculative investments.
If it breaks above and continues up this logic will be invalidated, and further downside to speculative assets may enroll.
Not financial advise, just an idea, I learn through doing
GOLD BUYHi there.
Price is moving impulsively to the upside.
Wiat for the price to form a continuation pattern on a lower time frame and watch strong price action for buy.
US 10 year yield = it is reach high , now can start downtrend we predict yield after little up move , will start down trend to see 2.50% even fibo 61% near 2.20%
green arrow = best buy place
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
ICARUS , known to most as 2Y-10Y Yield ~ I am nicknaming the 2-10 year yield "Icarus".
Pushing back towards to the sun with haste it would seem .
Kind of interesting how this is off the media radar today .
Oh my wings! See my two wings! How I love to fly!
-The final words between: Icarus, and his father~
Why volatility is the king among all financial markets?With the usage of ATR, applied on the close of the daily candle, I have calculated the volatility channels for the daily TOP and BOTTOM.
Based on this logic, we can estimate, with a huge confidence factor, where the prices are going to be compressed for the trading day.
Having said that, lets take a look at the data gathered among the most important financial markets:
SPX
TOP CROSSES : 2116
BOT CROSSES : 1954
Total Daily Candles : 18908
Occurance ratio = 0.215
NDX
TOP CROSSES : 1212
BOT CROSSES : 1183
Total Daily Candles : 9386
Occurance ratio = 0.255
DIA
TOP CROSSES : 759
BOT CROSSES : 769
Total Daily Candles : 6109
Occurance ratio = 0.25
DXY
TOP CROSSES : 1597
BOT CROSSES : 1598
Total Daily Candles : 13156
Occurance ratio = 0.243
DAX
TOP CROSSES : 1878
BOT CROSSES : 1848
Total Daily Candles : 13155
Occurance ratio = 0.283
BTC USD
TOP CROSSES : 416
BOT CROSSES : 417
Total Daily Candles : 4290
Occurance ratio = 0.194
ETH USD
TOP CROSSES : 247
BOT CROSSES : 268
Total Daily Candles : 2452
Occurance ratio = 0.21
EUR USD
TOP CROSSES : 820
BOT CROSSES : 805
Total Daily Candles : 7489
Occurance ratio = 0.217
GOLD
TOP CROSSES : 1722
BOT CROSSES : 1569
Total Daily Candles : 13747
Occurance ratio = 0.239
USOIL
TOP CROSSES : 1077
BOT CROSSES : 1089
Total Daily Candles : 10231
Occurance ratio = 0.212
US 10Y
TOP CROSSES : 1302
BOT CROSSES : 1365
Total Daily Candles : 9075
Occurance ratio = 0.294
Based on this, we can assume with a very high confidence ( 70-80%) that the market is going to stay, within the range created from the BOT and TOP ATR points.
How Joe Rekt the EconomyOverview of the yield curve indications on potential liquidity crisis occurring in the near future and leading to downturn in equities.
US 10 year yield, US 10Y The most important chart of all the markets is this little kid here.
This chart shows us the cost of US government borrowing which also means the strength of the US dollar as cash in the investors portfolio,
As we can see in this monthly graph that the government's 10-year borrowing yield is 3% (high going back to 2018 before COVID)
What is the meaning of this?
It means that the cash held by households, investors and institutions has reached its peak, as no one is buying and not investing and inflation has remained high and the Federal Reserve will target higher rates on the federal funds,
All this leads to increased risk appetite as bond yields may regress south + inflation starts to fall = real yield will approach 0% after being in negative territory.
The bear market will be over and risky assets like cryptocurrencies may welcome decent green days if not months.
*Note, if the 10-year US yield continues to rise to 5% and 6%, then we will see the euro, stocks, Japanese yen, as well as cryptocurrencies in the best place to buy them all
Government Bond Yield Chart ExplainedThe 10-year Treasury is an economic indicator. Its yield provides information about investor confidence. While historical yield ranges do not appear wide, any basis point movement is a signal to the market.
This is probably why Michael J Burry is not buying. ULTRASHORTChart should explain how hot this market is right now from the QE FED wanting to QT meaning they will let this freefall? they might actually have no choice but to remove the wealth they accidently created.
www.youtube.com
TLT - Perspective TLT appears to be bottoming/finding support. This also suggests that rates may be finding a top soon. But I do not expect stocks to reap the rewards thereof, as I expect Bonds to get bought up as a form of safety very very soon.
US10Y long term chart against DTL resistanceUS10Y Yields Weekly Log chart been respecting this downtrend since 1981 with multiple touches of resistance. Will this downtrend line respect again? might see a short term reprieve in yields from this level - worth monitoring
