Get started

Us10y!

10 YEAR YIELD GOING HIGHER MOST LIKELYIn the current high inflation environment we are in and with the Rus-Ukr war pushing energy and other commodity prices higher and higher, we can all agree yields on bonds have every right to move way higher then we have been seeing the past few years. The peak of the 'Tamper-Tantrums' back in November 2018 (Seen with black arrow) we can see the 10 year yield was higher than current levels. This was also when the fed wasn't that eager to release a 9 trillion dollar balance sheet back to market and when inflation levels were no where near what we are seeing (and feeling...) today. I do think we could be seeing the 10Y yield trying those levels (hit a little over 3% during those times) in the upcoming weeks. I do think the market will be ahead of the Fed, and push it to move higher faster. We may even break the 3% level.. especially if there is a hyper-inflation panic. Faster Bond movements could drag the market down (especially high flyers, tech stocks, etc) as e have seen in the recent past. We had a 2y/10y inversion last week which could be a leading recession indicator. In any case, be sure it's the Bond markets that will be setting the tone. Trade with caution :)
TVC:US10YLong
by LEO_IAMNOTUNCERTAIN_55555
NZDJPY - Is the WAR SENTIMENT OVER? Will BE MARKET RISK OFF? - BUILDING CONSENTS, ANZ business confidence, DATA released for the New Zealand dollar this week. BUILDING CONSENTS A very good DATA came. But BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA came with a very bad DATA. According to the MARKET SENTIMENT, a DEMAND may come to NZDs this week. Also, the Japanese yen is following the market sentiment as there is no special data release for JPY. - NZD FEATURE is currently down a bit. The main reason for this is that the MARKET RISK is starting to OFF and the STOCKS are starting to DOWN. The NZD FEATURE stands at 0.6945 LEVEL. The JPY FEATURE was heavily DOWN before. But it has now been avoided. Some UP TREND has started moving. According to MARKET SENTIMENT and JPY ECONOMIC PROJECTION. Anyway, if there is a CORRECTION that can be JPY UP in the future. Stay tuned for the VIX INDEX. Right now the VIX is getting a bit UP. NZDJPY Price is currently based on DYNAMIC LEVELS. So we must be careful. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. Also STOKES are getting a bit RED. VIX UP is becoming. Also COMMODITIES are now slowly DOWN. - NZDJPY Price may be slightly UP according to MARKET STRUCTURE. A RETRACEMENT has arrived that can TUCH the NZDJPY price TREND LINE again. Then the NZDJPY price can be DROP. Because VIX INDEX is currently UP. Also EQUITY MARKETS are currently DOWN. FOLLOW STRUCTURES AND MARKET SENTIMENT.
by benny_marshall
XAUUSD - HOW DOES GOLD REACT USD HIGH IMPACT NEWS?- There are two special indicators that affect GOLD today. Among them are ADP NON FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, FINAL GDP special. - Meanwhile, a FOMC MEMBER is scheduled to speak today at the New York SESSION. - US10Y currently stands at 2.30% LEVEL. US10Y WEAK a bit after JOLTS DATA yesterday. But that data came in at a very good level. But USD10Y LONG TERM is going to be UP if this MARKET CONDITION is SUPPORT to USD. Also DXY has been up to 98.17 LEVEL. The GOLD PRICE is slightly lower than the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS at this time. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be UP in the future. - SHORT TERM is for UP SIDE. But as the war recedes and the US Federal Reserve begins to raise rates, demand for the USD is likely to increase in the future. Therefore, GOLD may be DOWN LONG TERM in the near future. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. Also STOKES are turning slightly red. VIX is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES show a slightly UP SIDE BIAS. Currently there is a NEUTRAL BIAS on the market side. - GOLD PRICE can RETRACE from DYNAMIC LEVELS. It's very important to us. Maybe after reaching the dynamic level the price can be hugely VOLATILE with the economic data coming up today. - The chance of creating a TRIPLE BOTTOM opportunity again before the GOLD PRICE is UP is very high. So GOLD can go back to 1895 LEVEL. After that you can UP to at least 1966 LEVEL. However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by benny_marshall
My bet against Yields and for the Stock MarketsThe US government bonds are currently on everyone's lips. Wherever you listen, you hear the word recession and people sometimes talk about the "big crash". This is due to the currently enormously rising interest rate curve. However, I think that we saw our peak in 10-year government bonds yesterday and I think that the 10-year yield curve will now start falling. This is all of a technical nature and should now lead to a sell off to the 61.8% Fibonacci level which should bring us back to the 1% levels. This is enormously good for the stock markets and especially for technology stocks. I think that we can still expect a big surprise from the central bank and that exactly what very few expect will happen. I'm betting against government bonds and for that I'm betting everything on growth stocks over the next 2 years. This is no financial advice.
TVC:US10YShort
by RT_Trading_
XAUUSD LONG TO 2140If you go back to my page and read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. We haven't exactly hit 1872 yet which we STILL COULD, but this is still a good zone to go long from. We've seen Gold drop roughly 700 PIPS since yesterday alone, liquidating all the buyers who got into the market late. This manipulative drop could be the last drop and now we will see Wave 5 start. Let me know if you agree and drop a like. All my socials are on my TradingView profile. Follow my page for more free analysis!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
XAUUSD LONG (ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS)If you go back to my page, you'd see my previous long analysis from 1915 is running in 200 PIPS profit currently. If you read the description, you'd see I also said there is a possibility that Gold could drop lower towards 1872-1850. As we approach the end of the quarter, a lot of institutions will be closing out their Gold longs which can lead to Gold prices dropping lower as they will seek for lower prices to buy from. If the previous analysis is invalidated, this here is the next analysis and zones we will be looking to buy from Gold and hold long term into new high's. Let me know if you agree and drop a like. Follow my page for more free analysis!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION- There are several special INDICATORS affecting GOLD this week. Especially the NFP this week. Data on a number of special indicators such as ISM MANUFACTURING is due to be released this week. So you should pay more attention to US10Y and DXY. - US10Y currently stands at 2.52% LEVEL. The US10Y weakened slightly after POWEL's SPEAK last day. But again, it's going up with this existing MARKET CONDITION. Also up to DXY 99.12 LEVEL has been UP. The GOLD PRICE is slightly higher than the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS at this time. Most likely the GOLD PRICE will be UP in the future. The SHORT TERM is for the SELL SIDE. But as the war recedes and the US Federal Reserve begins to raise rates, demand for the USD is likely to increase in the future. Therefore, GOLD may be DOWN LONG TERM in the near future. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. Also STOKES are turning slightly red. VIX is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES show a slightly UP SIDE BIAS. Currently there is a NEUTRAL BIAS on the market side. - GOLD PRICE can RETRACE from DYNAMIC LEVELS. It's very important to us. Maybe after reaching the dynamic level the price can be hugely VOLATILE. - The chance of creating a DOUBLE BOTTOM opportunity again before the GOLD PRICE is UP is very high. So GOLD can go back to 1.900 LEVEL. Then you can UP to at least 1978 LEVEL. However, the bigger picture will change if a new sentiment enters the market or the market takes a risk to strengthen the US dollar first.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by benny_marshall
Yield Curve Inversion + S&P500 strong retractionsChart showing lead time between the curve inversion and the start of the stock market crashes along the time. Longest lead time was around 760 days (+2 years) Shortest lead time was 4-5 months. Consider a 6 months as a rule for your readiness: - Build up cash reserves. - Partial sells of variable income equities (stocks, crypto, etc). - From 4-6 months forward, start buying OTM SP500 options, specially when VIX is on support levels. (Bear Put Spreads are also a viable alternative). Start of the crash, what to do: - When SP500 has fallen around 20-30% from its peak, start buying variable income equities (stocks, crypto, etc). - Sell your OTM put options - ALWAYS KEEP SOME CASH RESERVE!
TVC:US10Y
by FernandoHilario
Watch the US 10Y Yield chart as it approaches MAJOR resistanceI am taking a closer look at a long-term chart of the US 10Y yield today, I consider this to be a very important chart. Why? Firstly, Government debt continued to sell-off yesterday, with bond bears spurred on by more hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, and secondly, I prefer to look at yield charts as I consider that the data is clearer and not disrupted or distorted by the ‘rollovers’ of the bond futures market. Ok I have done something a little strange on this chart, I can clearly see the down trend in evidence going back nearly 40-years and yet when I try to draw a trendline, I can only get a resistance line (a line that joins only 2 points and not 3). Why is this important? Because I want to know exactly at what point this nearly 40-year bull market capitulates - so what have I done? I have instead connected the lows from 1993 (there are at least 4 major lows) and drawn a parallel off this support line. Our long-term resistance line is at 2.52 BUT our parallel line is higher at 2.63 AND we have the 200-month ma in close proximity at 2.68. Conclusion – the MAJOR resistance lies at 2.63/68 and these are the KEY levels to watch. I have been watching these levels for at least the past 2-years, because not only will this will be the final death knell of the bond market, but because we also suspect at this level the stock market could also capitulate. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
Good day to as any to welcome the next recession- yield curvesThe US5Y looks ready to break above the US10Y rate for bonds , signaling an inversion of the yield curve, the number one precursor to each recession in the US. The 10 year is sitting 3/1000 of a percent higher right now. When they cross I expect the market to turn red today. The breakout of the US10Y from its cup and handle pattern dating back to June 2019 marked the top of the bull run, and when it backtested and bounced up the selling accelerated. You can learn a lot comparing the US10Y and the SPY or QQQ and how they relate. Anyways, US10Y killed the bull, maybe now it causes a recession and brings back the bears. Happy trading!
TVC:US05YShort
by BrianVS