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Us10y!

..an attempt to showcase the flatteningFlattening for the close. Getting a couple of questions re; flattening after the hints in previous idea, for those following 10s30s you will notice the test of 55/54bps is underway. ↳ The latest breakdown is implying we are at the minimum here in an ABC expectation leg towards support ↳ Inflation readings will be key to drive this one, this is signalling a dangerous environment for equities and risk in general going into September. ↳ To the other side, buyers will need to break through 11th May highs to call for reassessment in the flattening view.
TVC:US30YShort
by ridethepig
3
DXY (U.S. dollar) Fundamental Forecast Correct | Euro-zoneWhile the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered quickly from the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, the greenback may face headwinds ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decision on September 22 as inflation is expected to fall for the first time this year, according to the Conference Board's. In the United States, the headline CPI reading is predicted to decrease to 5.3 percent in August after being constant at 5.4 percent for two months, while the core rate of inflation is expected to fall for the second month in a row. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) admits that "the economy has not yet achieved the Committee's broad-based and inclusive maximum-employment goal," evidence of slower price growth may prompt a bearish reaction in the US dollar, and the central bank may stick to its current monetary policy path, as Chairman Jerome Powell insists that "we have much ground to cover to achieve maximum employment." In contrast, signs of sticky inflation may trigger a positive reaction in the US Dollar, putting pressure on the FOMC to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later. It is unclear if Fed officials would make major revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), since "several participants highlighted that there were upside risks to inflation linked with worries that supply had evaporated." Fresh developments from the US economy are likely to sway the Greenback ahead of the next Fed rate decision as the central bank enters its media blackout period, but the break of the monthly opening range raises the possibility of a further advance in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which appears to have reversed course ahead of the August low (91.82).
TVC:DXYShort
by SteadyTradeAI
U.S. Yield Curve for U.K. Open Sep 13The recovery in the US Dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) following the disappointing August US Nonfarm Payrolls report has assisted in taking some of the luster off gold prices over the past week. Because the anticipated slowdown in both fiscal and monetary stimulus out of the United States has arrived – pandemic-era unemployment benefits have expired, and the Federal Reserve's taper announcement appears to be on the horizon – the once-promising fundamental backdrop for gold prices appears to be in the rearview mirror. Beyond the possibility of a stalemate in the United States debt ceiling debate (similar to 2011), there appear to be few positive catalysts for gold prices over the next few months, according to the most recent data. The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States is expected to have an impact on the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve's blackout period, as the central bank prepares for a temporary rise in inflation. The release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States is expected to have an impact on the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve's blackout period, as the central bank prepares for a temporary rise in inflation. As a result of the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has cleared the opening range for September. However, the Greenback may face headwinds ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on September 22, as inflation is expected to slow for the first time this year. As a result of the weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has cleared the opening range for September. However, the Greenback may face headwinds ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on September 22, as inflation is expected to slow for the first time this year. Gold's declines during the first full week of September were not solely due to the strength of the US dollar, however.
TVC:DXY
by TayFx
1
📉📢Signal #16|EURUSD Short Entry | 06:17:09 (UTC) Fri Sep 10, 2The European Central Bank president, Christine Lagarde, rephrased Margaret Thatcher's quote about inflation: "She's not tapering." Despite the Eurozone's financial crisis recovery, the ECB appears to be easing monetary policy. A shift in the ECB's bond-buying program has also been made, and the ECB has also announced that it will increase its quantitative easing program to a level prior to March 2021. Instead of tapering, Lagarde explains, the long-term extension of asset purchases is a way to promote financial stability in Europe. Bond markets were relieved by the lack of any Fed tapering news, but the markets did not respond strongly. The EUR/USD is floating higher due to the fact that its yield is lower than that of other Euro crosses. This is because interest rates in the Eurozone have fallen faster than those in the United States. A change in currency exchange ranges in the near future is unlikely. In contrast to the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY exchange rates, the EUR/GBP exchange rate has broken away from its July low despite the fact that the rates for the former two currencies appear to be moving away from their summer highs. While the current environment may not be volatile, traders should expect a gradual increase in volatility in the future. 📢 Signal#:16 🏦 OrderType: Sell 💰 OrderSize: 1.00 💱 Symbol: EURUSD 🇪🇺🇺🇸 📈 OpenPrice: 1.18233 ⏰ Expiration: -/-- 🎯 TakeProfit: 0.00000 🛑 StopLoss: 0.00000
Short
by SteadyTradeAI
2
What is Technical Analysis?| An overview of practice Previous price movements, according to technical analysts, can be used to forecast future price movements, whereas fundamental analysts believe that economic fundamentals drive market movements. Understanding the differences between fundamental and technical analysis, as well as how to combine the two, can be extremely beneficial to traders. Many traders have discovered that technical analysis can assist them in risk management, which can be a significant barrier for inexperienced traders. Once a trader understands the concepts and principles of technical analysis, he or she can apply them to any market, making it a highly versatile analytical tool. Technical analysis, when done correctly, seeks to detect patterns that may be created by the underlying fundamentals. The following are some of the benefits of using technical analysis: It can be adapted to any market or age group. Technical analysis is used in isolation on occasion. It allows traders to spot and profit from market fluctuations. Charts are required for technical analysis. Because a security's price is the most reliable indicator of the market's past and current performance, it also serves as the starting point for evaluating transaction options. A chart depicts price movement, which is the most reliable indicator of market activity. Charts can be used to determine the overall trend, whether positive or negative, long or short term, and to identify market range bound situations. Nowadays, the most commonly used technical analysis charts are line charts, bar charts, and candlestick charts. Each period of a bar or candlestick chart provides technical analysts with information such as the starting, high, and low values, as well as the closing price. Candlestick research is advantageous because the patterns and relationships depicted within them can be used to generate highly accurate price projections. Once a trader has a firm grasp on the fundamentals of charting, he or she can use indicators to help determine trend direction. Indicators Technical traders use indicators to scout the market for trading opportunities. Despite the abundance of indicators available, traders frequently rely on volume and price-based indicators. These may indicate the location of support and resistance levels, the frequency with which they are maintained or broken, and the duration of a trend. A trader can monitor market price movement over time periods ranging from one second to one month. Moving averages and MACD are frequently used to anticipate potential entry and exit positions, as well as to identify market trends. Indicators help traders analyze the market, validate trade setups, and determine entry and exit points. Technical analysts believe that previous price movements can be used to forecast future price movements, whereas fundamental analysts believe that economic fundamentals drive market movements. Understanding the distinctions between fundamental and technical analysis, as well as how to combine the two, may be extremely beneficial to traders. Many traders have discovered that technical analysis can help them manage risk, which can be a major barrier for inexperienced traders. Once a trader has mastered the ideas and principles of technical analysis, he or she can apply them to any market, making it an extremely versatile analytical tool. When done correctly, technical analysis seeks to detect patterns that may be caused by the underlying fundamentals.
TVC:DXY
by SteadyTradeAI
ridethepig | US10Y testing resistanceA timely update to the US10Y Yields chart as we approach key areas. The 1.35% pivot level in the very short term is our line in the sand and will define which battlefield we will play Q3 on. ↳ The waterfall lows from 2020 started the next five wave impulsive sequence to the topside, it will take years for the moves to unfold but critical to understand our long term direction (higher yields). ↳ Typically we will see ebb and flow, particularly in summer months. Now with 1.35% & 1.45% the key resistance areas defined and ready to monitor, all we need to track is for a sustained breach above as will imply buyers are in control and demand reassessment in the view that a base is already in . ↳ Here actively tracking for one more leg lower towards 1.00%, it should be enough to unlock the pressure valve in USD one more time before we see the next leg lower in global equity markets in October (more on this over the coming weeks). [/chart
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
1
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsUSD – The dollar was little changed on Wednesday as oil prices slowed after a big two-day advance, US Treasury yields move higher, and investors awaited clues on the tapering of economic support by the Federal Reserve at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium. Commenting on their outlook and approach to trading USD, Lombard Odier Group noted that “there’s been skittishness over growth and sector rotations, which has boosted the dollar because of its safe-haven status. In the short term, we’re still going to be trading in ranges, with upside bias. Dollar underperformance after Jackson Hole could be a buying opportunity ahead of the release of US data next week, including the non-farm payrolls report for August… Potential positive surprises from the NFP in particular could out QE (quantitative easing) taper back among the main FX market drivers and support the USD.”
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by thunderpips
Hang Seng Bear Market, Dollar Break Out, Vix Up, Welcome to OpexGood morning, folks, and happy Friday! Welcome to Opex; let's get right into our analysis. It was another shakey overnight session with Asian stocks leading global futures lower after China said it would pass a strict privacy law by Nov 1st, directly affecting tech and ecommerce companies and their collection and use of certain types of data from their customers. The Hang Seng is now officially in a bear market (>20% drop from the ATH). As of 8:15AM the Dow is down -0.52% to 34,711, the S&P is down -0.40% to 4,388, the Nasdaq is down -0.14% to 14,913, and the Russell is down -0.55% to 2,117. The Vix is sitting at 22.93 after rallying earlier this morning around 3:00AM toward 23.90. We've just retested the descending trendline once again, and we saw a light rejection. We have solid momo in vol this week, and today's Opex could really escalate the risk off move we've been seeing across global markets. I'm expecting another leg higher in Vix as early as next week, so my plan is to prepare for some potentially ugly month end selling, then reassess our short to medium term outlook. The US10Y yield continues to sink as investors flood into USTs in search of a safe haven. We're sitting on top the 50MA (w) at 1.23% and although we appear to have found support here, this is the 3rd test of support, and if it goes, it could trigger aggressive bond buying/risk off behaviour. The Dollar (DXY) is in the process of breaking out into the wedge. We're up again this morning and we just saw a new HOD at 93.708. If we end the week at the high's, let's say a 94 handle, this could set us up for a massive breakout toward the 95/96 area as early as next week. Let's see how the cookie crumbles on this beautiful Friday. Good luck out there today, my friends, and see you all at 9:30AM for our live analysis and weekly wrap up. Cheers! Michael. * I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
Futures Dip Ahead of Potentially Hawkish Fed MinutesGood morning, folks! It was a relatively quiet overnight session with futures drifting sideways and trading essentially flat as we approach the open. As of 8:45AM the Dow is down -0.20% to 35,187, the S&P is down -0.11% to 4,438.75, the Russell is up 0.11% to 2,176.90, and the Nasdaq is down -0.3% to 14,989.75. Traders will be keeping a close eye on today's Fed minutes (from July) for any hints/announcements of balance sheet tapering, changes to the inflation/economic outlook, and of course, any changes in rates. It's unlikely we'll see any major policy changes from the last meeting, however, I do expect more of the members to begin turning hawkish as PPI approaches 8% and CPI 5.5%. Some analysts expect the Fed to announce a taper schedule to begin as early as October and to run for as long as 10 months into mid 2022. That sounds about right, but if markets or the economy react poorly to the Fed's tighter policy stance, how long until they reverse course (again)? Wash, rinse, repeat. Moments ago we saw the MBA Mortgage Applications Index come in at -3.9% vs the prior print of 2.8%. We also saw Housing Starts come in at 1,534k vs the 1,610k expected, while Building Permits rose 1,635k vs the 1,610k expected. At 10:30AM we'll see the latest EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and then of course, at 2:00PM we'll get the July Fed minutes followed by the Powell Q&A. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Currencies - Dollar Rises with QEIdea for Currencies/Macro: - Contrary to popular belief, since 2008, the dollar RISES with Fed Balance Sheet expansion. - There is currently a large divergence which I speculate to close with the dollar rising. Either the Fed Balance Sheet can be reduced, or the dollar will rise... Obviously the balance sheet will not be reduced for a long time, if ever. Why is this so? Doesn't printing more money devalue currency? 1. - Central Bank creates reserves, not a form of liquidity that directly enters the economy. It's still inflationary of course. - G-SIBs and commercial banks can then either rebalance their holdings to purchase assets, or create credit based on this collateral which enters the economy. - These swaps also lower rates, which creates the perception of invincibility and causes price inflation of risk assets (purely speculative!). - However, when debt is serviced (credit impulse turns negative) this destroys liquidity. 2. - A few $trillion from the Fed is just a drop in the eurodollar market, it does not amount to much, relatively speaking. - Other Central Banks have expanding their balance sheets more than the Fed. Since currencies are relative, this is bullish for the dollar. - Eurodollar futures are declining, signaling a SHORTAGE of dollars and liquidity destruction elsewhere, at a greater rate than QE. QE has been ongoing since 2008. Eurodollar market is the market, simply put. Over 90% of international trade is financed through the eurodollar market. I don't think there is any question that a recession is coming when the monetary tightening inevitably comes. Central Banks Balance sheets vs GDP is higher than it was before/during/after the Great Depression or WW2. Total Assets to GDP: IMO yields respond to credit impulse immediately, and their trend supports liquidity destruction in the Eurodollar market. Eurodollar futures are not a currency market but a reflection of LIBOR interest rates. It is an expression of inflation expectations: What is actually happening? - Interest rate driven QE is not working to create economic growth, and we are experiencing global deflation. - QE is failing to create high quality collateral, but instead collateral is being sucked out of the international markets. - Capital flows and credit impulse are negative (deflationary). - Fed went all out, but international money markets did not respond. Real wealth is being destroyed and there is nothing the Central Banks can do about it. Speculation: - Since Credit Cycle leads currencies/collateral, and it is turning down, debtors are withdrawing collateral from risk assets to service their debt. - High quality collateral is being sucked out from underneath the equity bubble (distribution). - Leading institutions will service debt and sell risk before monetary deflation arrives. There will be a dollar shortage and a squeeze. How does this trickle down and affect US equities? It affects the EURUSD pair, which is synonymous with risk appetite (It is an indicator not the cause). EURUSD: Where EURUSD goes, oil and tech go... and where oil and tech go, the stock market goes. Anyway, a relatively safe way to play this would be simply to long USD for the mid-long term (UUP etc.). You can try to short the bubble like me, but be ready for some pain as the timing is tricky and bubbles rise the most at the end. Keep in mind that this isn't really a trade signal but a trend. However, the day of the rugpull is indeed coming. Looking at the trend for DXY, 114-120 seems like a reasonable target. GLHF - DPT
TVC:DXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
11
Bonds - US10Y Cannot and Will Not Rise SignificantlyIdea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields: I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops. I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month. Why is that? - There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally. - Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic growth. - There is a borrowing cost for private debtors, debt must be serviced. - 10Y is used as a risk-free rate benchmark for credit derivatives, especially for risk spreads. - Furthermore, rising yields means that a rate hike would inevitably follow. - The premium on credit risk is at a record low (BBB). - Even junk bonds and Greece is negatively yielding. - Zombie companies are at an ATH (one that isn’t generating enough income to cover the annual interest payments on its debts. With interest rates so low, these zombies have stayed “alive” by refinancing their debts at increasingly lower rates, or simply tacking on more debt to keep breathing. But with rates rising, zombies may be forced to refinance at higher rates.) - Since debt is increasing, the magnitude that rates can rise before negatively impacting the private sector is decreasing. Any significant rise in rates will quickly cause mass insolvencies in these zombie companies, which also would cause a cascade of liquidations in yield chasers who had sold credit default swaps - accumulating asymmetric risk. It is a massive, massive bubble, and any significant rise in rates would collapse the equity market and the economy. The only way to keep equities stable would be for negative rates, but the dollar is without a doubt - rising. As debt rises, liquidity is sucked out of the collateral pool in a proportional amount. You will just eventually get to a point where debt servicing becomes too expensive anyway from a collateral supply perspective. That's the fundamental condition which will eventually bring about the reflexive regression to the mean. So is it a slow and painful death, or a quick flush? I'd bet on the latter... more money to be made for insiders who short it. In fact, I would wager that the Bill Ackmans of the world are betting big on credit default swaps on zombie companies, similar to CDSs/CDOs on subprime mortgages in 2008. People are buying with both hands bonds which are expected to yield less than what they paid for at the maturity. Any change in conditions would cause this to be capitulation into a bid-less market, don't you think? It's pure insanity and there is only one thing to do here. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4