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US Futures Tank on Thursday, Vix Spikes 25%US Futures are tanking on Thursday after a rough overnight session saw the S&P fall back toward it's 21EMA around 4,269. As of 9AM the S&P is down -1.3% to 4,294, the Dow is down -1.3% to 34,124, the Nasdaq is down -1.32% to 14,607, and the Russell is down -1.85% to 2,207. The Russell is down around -4.28% on the week, and has lost critical MA supports, potentially leading to further downside toward the 200DMA around 2,053 as early as tomorrow. The Vix is up around 25% and is back at a 20 handle as we approach the open. Considering we're down less than -2% on the majors today, and we're seeing this type of bid for risk protection, things could get nuclear for Vix if we get a decent multi-percentage point correction today/tomorrow. The US10Y yield is puking again as inflation fears subside - we're down just over -2% and sitting at 1.29%. The Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.34% to 92.38 after another test of the wedge yesterday. With stocks puking, we should see a bid for cash today. Bitcoin is down just under -4% and sitting back at a 32k handle. We're approaching the 30k support once again in what is shaping up like a dead cat bounce. The next logical target if 30k goes, is 20k. I know the Bitcoin perma bulls hate this prediction, but like all risk assets, when the tap stops, the party is over. Gold is seeing a nice bid here, though, we're up around 0.78% on the day, and sitting at 1,815.9. Lastly, we saw jobless claims this morning come in at 373k vs the 350k expected, while continuing claims fell to 3.339MM vs the prior print of 3.48MM. Funny how when the pandemic claims end, the jobless claims fall... Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
US Futures Drift Sideways Near ATH'sUS Futures are trading sideways on Tuesday morning - we're sitting near the ATH's, and showing no signs of letting up. The bears have vanished again at the opportune time for bulls, setting us up for further upside this week off the back of nothing but relentless and persistent fiat debasement by central banks, along with the corporate buy-back ponzi. We're entering Q2 earnings season, and so we'll have ample opportunity to dissect the performance of the broader market, to better understand where the flows ended up over the past quarter, and how market breadth is shaping up at the end of this secular expansionary cycle. As of 9AM the S&P was trading flat at 4,342.50, the Dow was down -0.6% to 34,655, the Nasdaq was up 0.20% to 14,743.50, and the Russell was up 0.16% to 2,305.70. The Dollar (DXY) slipped back to 92.30, while Gold recaptured an 1,800 handle (1,813.20), sitting up around 1.68% in pre-market trade. WTI rallied around 0.86% to 75.81, and Vix recaptured a 15 handle (15.80), after hitting a low of 14.25 on Friday. According to ZeroHedge, we've seen 7 consecutive days of new ATH's on the S&P, and considering we're seeing data that is not conducive of maintaining loose monetary policy, the Fed is boxed into a corner. Imo this entire rally since the March 2020 lows has been a complete fraud. If you look at the "rebound" with M1 in mind, we haven't rebounded at all. What has seemingly happened is a secret and aggressive devaluation of fiat across the G20, so the working class is none the wiser. Let's see what happens next... Our live Analysis begins at 9:30AM. * Iam/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
EURUSD Poised to Test 200DMA After 50DMA RejectionUS Markets are experiencing a technical bounce on Monday after last weeks Bullard spook/Fed hawkishness on Wednesday. EURUSD looks poised to test the 50DMA as early as today, but according to polarity principle, we should see a rejection if we do, and a continuation of the recent downtrend (toward the 200DMA around 1.157). At the same time, I expect the 50DMA on the S&P to hold up as resistance - inplying a risk off move into the close. Let's see what happens next...
Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
US Futures Rebound on Monday Ahead of White House MeetingUS Futures are rebounding modestly on Monday morning after last weeks sell off - the S&P is rallying around 0.50% to test the 50DMA around 4,176.58 (likely as resistance), the Dow is seeing support at the 100DMA at 33,011 and is up around 0.71% on the day, the Russell is retesting the 50DMA around 2,250, and the Nasdaq is floating somewhere in orbit around 14,072 and is up around 0.25% on the day as of 9AM. Bitcoin is getting clobbered to start the week, and is down a whopping 9.4% on the day. We're sitting at a 32k handle and looking incredibly bearish with the recent lows around 30k likely to be tested in short order. If we lose 30k support, we really don't have much holding us up above 20k, so hold on to your hats if markets turn down again today. According to Bloomberg, several financial markets representatives will be visiting the White House today to discuss the state of the economy after last weeks light bout of volatility. Clearly both the policy makers and government alike are panicing, but trying to calm markets as best they can. The Fed has very few options at this point, and so, it's likely this meeting bears no fruit once someone explains to Biden how inflation, and the Fed's policies actually work against 90% of Americans. The Vix is down around 2% and is sitting at 20.27, while the US10Y yield rose by 2.22% back to 1.475%. Gold is seeing solid flows today and is back at 1,779.30 and up 0.58%, and finally the dollar (DXY) is back at 92.07 and looking resilient after last weeks incredible rally back to the wedge resistance at 92. It should be an interesting day of trade to say the least, so stay tuned as our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweetHi guys, Crazy week in the precious metals market and the FED crashed the whole market into oblivion. Luckily we were on the right side this time as a bearish correction was more than likely, however I did not expect a move below 1800. We closed the week a couple dollars below the 61.8 fibo support line at 1768, so this is concerning (it might just be a SL-hunt to confuse gold bulls), but technically this opens up the gates for further potential downside. Silver remains supported by the 61.8 fibo support level and the D200 SMA, so there is still a big possibility of a bullish comeback. Also indicators are highly oversold, so a correction is more than likely. Since the FED did not do anything but was 'talking to talk about tapering' and projected 2 'possible' interest hikes in 2023 (so 18 months from now, read again), Powell ridiculising his own dotplot during the press conference, I find this move highly over-exaggerated. In any case, bearish parabolic moves know parabolic bullish corrections (and vice-versa). From a technical & fundamental point of view, gold & silver are a 100% buying opportunity eyes shut with crazy upside potential. As mentioned in my previous update, the facts on the ground remain the same. The FED is still buying $120 billion worth of bonds EVERY month, the money printer is still going crazy and inflation is projected to hit 4% by many analysts in the near term. Not to mention US10 Yields have crashed below 1.5% post-FED. It's a fallacy to think this is transitory inflation, it's more likely here to stay for years to come. A big risk for the precious metals specifically and commodities in general is that inflation in the market can turn into deflation. Once central banks will stop the moneyprinter to fight the high inflation, there is shortage of money supply and prices crash at a very fast rate creating deflation. But we're still far from it, as the accomoditive monetary policy is still here. I am expecting a strong bullish reaction in the coming weeks, but it is important to time the entry. We have several risks luring, Basel 3 implimentation next week being the biggest one. An equity sell-off being the other, with DJI & SPY closing extremely bearish this week below the bullish trendline for the first time since March 2020. The Nasdaq closed the week as an evening star candle, which is a potential bearish reversal signal. Important to know is that strong equity sell-offs are bullish for gold & silver first (repositioning of money) but turns bearish later if the sell-off persists as investors flock to cash (March 2020 case). Price Action that I am looking at is bearish de-acceleration on the H4 timeframe and strong & engulfing bullish H4 candles. After such a huge move, we should see price range for a weeky or two (if not longer). It took the gold bears 2 weeks of ranging before they made the big move down. Bulls recapturing the 1800 handle on a daily timeframe is extremely important to regain the confidence and that would be a strong buy signal for me. For now I am keeping my eyes on the 1750-1755 zone as a potential platform for the rocket to 2000+. In case 1750 breaks, we are looking at the 3rd test of the bullish trendline and I expect price to break it this time towards the 1600-1610 demand zone. Below that we have the 1550-1555 zone as the next major support. A long read this time, but there is so much going on I couldn't make it shorter. 😁👌🏻 Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
6
US10Y Strong rejection on the 1D MA50. Long-term bearish sign?A perfect Channel Down has been formed for the US10Y on the 1D time-frame. The 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 have already been broken. The 1D MA150 (yellow trend-line) is exactly within the Higher Lows Zone from the very bottom of August 2020. Will the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) get tested right on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> mused_Aurorah --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
Macro - Risk is Very HighIdea for Macro: - Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range. - Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range. - Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend. - Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level. - PC ratio reaching low levels (signals investor complacency). - SKEW at an ATH. Perceived Tail Risk is at an ATH. Speculate a correction in equities this Summer, then a large correction EOY-Q1 2022. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US30YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
FB: Potential Upside to 360?FB is channeling up nicely and showing potential upside to 360 where the upper band of the channel is sitting as of today, which would imply a new ATH, of course. We have downside to around 300 where we should see notable support. If we lose 300, we still have channel support currently sitting around 285. This is a pretty persistent trend, so I don't expect much deviation outside of a shift in sentiment, which of course could be brought on by a number of factors, not the least of which is logic...
NASDAQ:META
by Hedge_Of_The_World
US10Y Direction Will Influence NAS100The US10Y started trending up in February. This adversely affected the NAS100 as growth stocks started to feel the pinch of higher discount rates. The 10-Yr reached a high of around 1.75% at the end of March and then began to pull back (red vertical). This supported the NAS100 and growth stocks in general at first, but yields started to drift and the NAS100 followed. However, from 3rd June (blue horizontal), yields started to decline. Again this has supported the NAS100, which charted an all-time high yesterday. Currently, the correlation coefficient is sitting at -0.88, which shows a strong inverse relationship. Tomorrow's Fed decision is likely to have a large influence on the direction of the 10-Yr and as such growth stocks, through their discount rate adjustment.
TVC:US10Y
by FXCM
1
The Economic Cycle: Painting The Full Picture. This is a very complex topic but I will try to keep it as simple as possible. This whole story began when the US government printed money to help the economy going and the reserve bank infused money into the market by buying back bonds. These actions did help for a while and the stock market recovered from March 2020 mini-crash, but that printed money caused the dollar index to drop significantly. Consequently, the price of commodities kept rising. After a while, people started to worry that all those printed money are going to cause huge inflation. Therefore, they started dropping bonds showing their lack of confidence in the economy causing the yields to go up. They instead bought Bitcoin to maintain the value of their money and hedge against a possible crash. That was a good choice because with a limited supply and a high demand Bitcoin acted like gold and went straight up beating other asset classes in returns. After the election and reopening of the economy, the feds persisted that this inflation is transitory. There are many reasons why they say that including stable inflation expectations, disinflationary technologies, and so on. Due to a phenomenon called “cultural lag” investors believed the feds after a while and when June’s CPI report came out, they almost didn’t react to a whopping 3.5% inflation rate. This week at the FOMC meeting everyone expects to hear the same thing because Jerome Powell has been pretty consistent with what the feds are going to do in the case inflation got out of hand. They see economic growth in such good health that they are going to start tapering. Unlike, 2013, this tapering is expected to be a relief and lead to a massive bull market. That said, inflation is going to be around for a couple of years but in the long run, it should go down. And feds are going to stay consistent with their plan to help the economy stabilize over the tapering period. But what does it all have to do with Bitcoin? A stable economy doesn’t need gold or bitcoin because people would rather have a stable ROI in a productive economy than having their funds held in a volatile asset with a risk of losing 40% of it in a matter of a month. Of course, the economy won’t stay stable forever and new struggles will come along our way. Whether it’s due to presidential cycles or bitcoin halving or other events, there will be a day that bitcoin will worth 400k. There is still much to be discussed here, so please feel free to share your thoughts and comment your analysis. How do you think FOMC meeting is going to affect the market? Are we going to have another Taper Tantrum? Thanks
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarkitMaven
13