US 30 1H Given the 1.272 Fibonacci resistance and the 10y and 30y bond auction in the coming days, I expect the index to return to the 33635 range and the pullback to the previous peak.
Us10y!
US 10 YR Bond 1HIf the chart can complete this pattern, the price target will be the red line. But you have to pay attention to the leading resistances.
US10 years Bond Correlation with Gold Dated 11 April 21US 10 years yield possible forming triangle pattern?
LONG POSITIONUS10Y;TECHNICAL
FORECAST:LONG
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Chart of the day: It’s not reflation without higher bond yieldsThe move lower in US10Y in the past few sessions has been the talk of the town in the finance industry, especially after all the rigmarole caused in the market by the rapidly rising yields over the past few weeks.
With US10Y testing key support at 1.60 – 1.62 the question that the market’s wanted answered is whether we see yields bounce from key support, or whether we take out key support and continue to counter trend grind lower.
It was an important question to ask due to the impact that the move in something like US10Y can have on the Dollar, Gold and the JPY. The grind lower in US10Y this week saw Gold push back into a key level of resistance in 1760 and USDJPY revisit key support at 109.30.
So far, it seems like US10Y has been able to hold the first test f key support. That of course doesn’t mean the move will just be straight line higher from here as we could still test lower again and could even break support.
However, in line with the balance or probabilities and the path of least resistance we would expect US10Y to grind higher in the weeks ahead. Attention now for US10Y in the short term turns towards today’s PPI numbers for the US.
SPX's study since 80s, SP X& 10Y relation Code is "Decoded"Since the 80s every time we get a spike in US10Y Bonds SPX got a correction with a
minimum of 20% and maximum of 57 % the question is where & when. Therefore,
looking back to all the data available on Tradingview since 80s to 2021 we have
measure the spike's percentage of all > 20% and the distance from the Golden Crosses & Death
Crosses and showed the crash percentage as results of that. Surprisingly the weekly
Golden Cross are 50-50 chance not the normal with indicators so the results are shown
not plotted for the weekly. As for the daily all the work is plotted on the chart for
your reference. Feel free to print, share, redistribute and publish this study for the
benefit of any one out there. How to read the table below, just follow the steps:
1. Fist percentage is the gain of US10Y from the last reasonable low.
2. Second percentage is the % of the actual crashes.
3. The distance between the Gold Cross & the peak of the crash it self.
4. G.C = Golden Cross. D.C Death Cross
244 % up So far- ???? so far
144% up -20%- 305D G.C
59 % up -20%-70D G.C
70% up -57%- 20D D.C
64 % up -50%- 363D G.C
(-24% Down) -22% -357D D.C xxx.
18% up -20%-78D G.C
28% up -36%- 130D G.C
43% up- -27%- 53D G.C
3 G. Crosses Vs 4 D. Crosses "Irrelevant weekly"
6 G. Crosses Vs 2 D. Crosses " 75% G. Cross "
-------------------------------------------------
The actual study is here " Just click the picture"
Chart of the day: Surprising push lower in US10Y continues...The recent economic data out of the US was nothing short of spectacular, with ISM Mfg PMI printing at the highest level since 1983, with NFP showing close to a million jobs gained in March and ISM Services PMI printing the highest number going back as far as our dataset allows.
These types of numbers were a very good example of the type of solid economic beats that market participants are expecting going into Q2. It’s also solid prints like these that are expected to see US10Y pushing higher.
However, despite the data, US10Y has been pushing lower over the past few sessions, currently meandering close to the next key area of support between 1.60 – 1.62.
So, what to make of this drop in US10Y? For now, not much as the med term bias remains tilted to the upside for yields, especially going into the second quarter of the year. What would change that med term view?
Firstly, a drastic deterioration in the actual Q2 data which sees the market second guess it’s baseline assumptions. Secondly, a drastic deterioration in the virus situation, bad enough to overshadow the current flurry of positive drivers in the market right now.
Thus, the expectation for higher yields in the med term remains intact and we are looking at key support zones (1.60 – 1.62 and 1.50 – 1.52) as possible areas where we could expect med term bond sellers to step back in.
Where do Markets go From Here?- Global stocks are flying high to start the week, and are testing ATH's on Tuesday morning. The MSM are all singing the same song of sunshine and rainbows, with recent Chinese, and US data, showing signs of continued strength. We all know the data is completely bogus, and is possibly the reason why over 18 million Americans are still on some form of income benefits. If you don't have accurate data, for example: the BLS recently revealed that upwards of 50% of their data is based on estimates, then don't share it. It's not accurate, and not by a long shot. How could this data be used to formulate economic policy? What a complete joke.
- The few bears left standing have most likely been seeked out, and decimated by this recent surge in stocks. As a reminer, we rallied everyday heading into the end of Q3, after one of the best quarterly performances in history (zero visible month-end selling). This market just reeks of fraud and greed right now.
- The S&P is set to open down around 0.16% to 4,061.12, with the Dow down 0.20% to 33,346, the Nasdaq flat at 13,586, and the Russell down around 0.20% to 2,258.
- Vix is seeing a light bid after hitting a new low of 17.30, and is back at an 18 handle as of 9AM. The PA on Vix is not normal, nor is it accurate. It's completely manipulated by the Fed Put, and other MM's who are addicted to raking in premium while markets drift sideways/melt higher.
- The US10Y Treasury yield is sitting comfortably around a 1.68%, but is notably off the recent highs. Foreign institutions will be taking advantage of the US10Y yield as it's quite attractive compared to other G20 nations. The US30Y also retreated back to 2.34%, and continues to skip along key support levels, including the 21 day EMA at 2.33, which is acting as strong support.
- European markets traded are up across the board, with the CAC40 up by 0.42%, and the Dax up 0.54%, with the FTSE 100 up 0.48%, and the SMI up 0.15%. I swear the worse the economic landscape in the Euro-zone, the better stock markets do. It's all central banks. Asian markets were mixed, with the Hang Seng up 2.2%, the CSI 300 down 0.44%, and the Nikkei 225 down 1.34%.
- Gold is up around 0.50% to 1,737, with Silver up by as much as 1%. We're now trading around 25. Platinum is a rocket today, and is up 1.6%, and is sitting at 1,229, while Copper traded lower by 1.2% to 4.08, and Palladium rose by 1.5% to 2,696.
- Crude is up notably, with WTI up around 1.4%, and trading at 59.43, and Brent up 1.2%, and trading around 62.88.
- The US Dollar (DXY) is levitating around 92.54 after seeing some weakness to strat the week. We'll have to see if we get another leg higher on some potential profit taking this week.
- Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM!
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HQD, QID
April 4 Market UpdateMy apologies for the absence of communication. Was sidetracked with other projects and only posted to my website.
In the coming sessions, participants will want to pay attention to where the S&P 500 trades in relation to Thursday’s end-of-day spike higher.
More On Spikes: Spike’s mark the beginning of a break from value. Spikes higher (lower) are validated by trade at or above (below) the spike base (i.e., the origin of the spike).
In the best case, the S&P 500 remains above the $4,004.25 spike base. Doing so means that the participants are finding higher prices, above the VWAP anchored from the March 17 rally-high, valuable (i.e., buyers, on average, are in control and winning since the March 17 rally-high).
More On Volume-Weighted Average Prices (VWAPs): A metric highly regarded by chief investment officers, among other participants, for quality of trade. Additionally, liquidity algorithms are benchmarked and programmed to buy and sell around VWAPs.
In the case of higher prices, given that the $4,015.25 price extension was achieved in after-market trade that established an overnight high at $4,038.25, participants can target the $4,062.00 extension.
More On Overnight Rally Highs (Lows): Typically, there is a low historical probability associated with overnight rally-highs (lows) ending the upside (downside) discovery process.
Any activity below the $4,004.25 spike base puts the rally on hold and calls for balance or digestion of higher prices.
Balance (Two-Timeframe Or Bracket): Rotational trade that denotes current prices offer favorable entry and exit. Balance-areas make it easy to spot a change in the market (i.e., the transition from two-time frame trade, or balance, to one-time frame trade, or trend).
In the case of lower prices, participants can look to whether a test of the $3,943.00 and $3,908.25 high-volume areas (HVNodes) solicit a response.
More On Volume Areas: A structurally sound market will build on past areas of high-volume (HVNode). Should the market trend for long periods of time, it will lack sound structure (identified as a low-volume area (LVNode) which denotes directional conviction and ought to offer support on any test).
If participants were to auction and find acceptance into areas of prior low-volume, then future discovery ought to be volatile and quick as participants look to areas of high volume for favorable entry or exit.
Biden's Infrastructure Plan, Month-End Rebalancing- Welcome to the final trading day of Q1, folks! Futures were relatively flat in the overnight session ahead of Biden's long awaited Infrastructure announcement today, which should see a proposal in the realm of $2.25 Trillion tackle roads, bridges, and the EV market, among others. I have no idea why the Biden administration would raise taxes to pay for it, since they could just ask the Fed to print the money as the government has seemingly become addicted to lately. The government just created Trillions of dollars out of thin air to give to households (printing GDP), making the working class notably poorer (debasing the dollar), and now they're going to ask for it back via taxes? SMH.
- The US10Y Treasury yield found support at the 50MA (h), and looks poised to cool further on potential higher (quarter end) inflows into Treasuries ($41B), at least according to Bank of America. JP Morgan called for as high as $316 Billion in month end equity outflows. However, it's day of, and we're seeing a lake of a market out there. Unless we're about to see a colossal single day puke, markets appear unphased, and poised to continue to melt higher.
- The S&P is set to open up around 0.20% to 3,955, with the Dow flat at 32,925, the Nasdaq up 0.70% to 12,969, and the Russell up around 0.53% to 2,204. It's insane to see critical supports broken, only to be recaptured on yet another low volume melt up. The bears (sans me and a few others) are extinct, and clearly, price no longer means what it used to. With both demand and supply being controlled by central banks and governments, the price of assets are essentially meaningless. The distortion is becoming aggressive, but at some point, I still believe we're going to see the entire house of cards fall. I've said it a million times, it's all a ponzi, and the lack of productivity is becoming a major problem for the real economy, and for our future prosperity, and that's not the half of it.
- Vix is being sold off this morning as we approach the open, with support at the gap fill from Feb 2020 around 18.80. We're currently trading at 19.20 as of 8:45AM.
- European markets traded lower, with the CAC40 down by 0.10%, and the Dax down 0.14%, with the FTSE 100 down 0.24%, and the SMI down 0.16%. Asian markets were also lower, with the Hang Seng down 0.85%, the CSI 300 down 0.90%, and the Nikkei 225 down 0.75%. The BOJ apparently said they're going to taper bond purchases in April. WTF? Did I read that wrong? Nope...
- Gold is up around 0.10% to 1,687, after an ugly session yesterday, with Silver down 0.18%. We're now trading around 24.09. Platinum is up 2.5% after losing the 21 day EMA and 50 day MA yesterday, but is retesting as we speak, we're now sitting at 1,182. Copper traded higher by 0.88% to 4.00, and Palladium is up by 1.5% to 2,628.
- Crude is down slightly, with WTI down just 0.20%, and trading at 60.40, and Brent down 0.30%, and trading around 63.96.
- The US Dollar (DXY) tagged a new recent high around 93.43, and is cooling slightly as we approach the open. If we see any signs of risk-off from month end selling, or potentially a sell-the-news reaction to Biden's infrastructure, we're going to see the dollar skyrocket. Our monthly target is 95.25.
- On the data front, we saw the MBA Mortgage Applications Index fall by -2.2%, and the ADP Employment Change rise by 517k, vs the 525k expected. Next we'll see Chicago PMI, then Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Inventories, and of course, tomorrow we have Jobless claims, and the ISM Manufacturing Index, but as I mentioned on Monday, the number one print I'm looking forward to this week, is March Payrolls on Friday.
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
US10Y 2% is Essentially a Certainty at This PointThe real question is what happens when we hit 2%? Will the bond market (and stock market) implode? Will the Fed step in with YCC? Something tells me we won't have to wait much longer. Hold on to your hats in April, the 10Y note won't see real support until the 128 level (we're currenty trading around 131...
SPX's study since 80s, SP X& 10Y relation Code is "Decoded"Since the 80s every time we get a spike in US10Y Bonds SPX got a correction with a
minimum of 20% and maximum of 57 % the question is where & when. Therefore,
looking back to all the data available on Tradingview since 80s to 2021 we have
measure the spike's percentage of 20% and more and the distance from the Golden Crosses & Death
Crosses and showed the crash percentage as results of that. Surprisingly the weekly
Golden Cross are 50-50 chance not the normal with indicators so the results are shown
not plotted for the weekly. As for the daily all the work is plotted on the chart for
your reference. Feel free to print, share, redistribute and publish this study for the
benefit of any one out there. How to read the table below, just follow the steps:
1. Fist percentage is the gain of US10Y from the last reasonable low.
2. Second percentage is the % of the actual crashes.
3. The distance between the Gold Cross & the peak of the crash it self.
4. G.C = Golden Cross. D.C Death Cross
244 % up So far- ???? so far
144% up -20%- 305D G.C
59 % up -20%-70D G.C
70% up -57%- 20D D.C
64 % up -50%- 363D G.C
(-24% Down) -22% -357D D.C xxx.
18% up -20%-78D G.C
28% up -36%- 130D G.C
43% up- -27%- 53D G.C
3 G. Crosses Vs 4 D. Crosses "Irrelevant weekly"
6 G. Crosses Vs 2 D. Crosses " 75% G. Cross "
Monthly Chart of US 10 Year Bonds:As seen from the chart the bond is facing resistance around the downward sloping trend-line since 1988.
At present, the bond is trading near to trend-line supply zone around the levels of 1.90 to 2.00
Around 1.80 levels lies the 50% Fibonacci levels of entire downward movement from 3.25 to 0.36.
For educational purpose
@jagrut
It's Buy-back Season, Baby!9:12AM - Market preview:
- Yesterday's PA looked like a buy-back fueled spending fest, with corporations spending as much on buy-backs as they did pre-COVID. I guess somethings never change, or do they? The Ponzi appears to be alive and well (for now). Don't you just love it when individual investors have next to no control over PA? However, this morning, the S&P is set to open down around 0.30% to 3,946, with the Dow down 0.12% to 32,993, the Nasdaq down 0.64% to 12,861, and the Russell down around 0.15% to 2,152.
- Vix is holding on to a 21 handle after kissing a new post March crash low of 18.70 last Friday (we've now filled the final gap), and we're rallying toward the upper end of the range with conviction.
- The US10Y Treasury yield continues to rip higher, and moments ago we tested the highest level since Jan 2020 around 1.774%, likely putting pressure on risk. The US30Y yield is also rallying after a strong performance yesterday, and we're back near the previous high around 2.464%.
- The US Dollar (DXY) exploded overnight, and blew past our intraday target of 93. We're now sitting around 93.22 at 9AM, and heading toward the 94 level (our monthly target is 95.25.
- European markets traded mixed again, with the CAC40 up by 0.57%, and the Dax up 0.31%, with the FTSE 100 flat and the SMI down 0.23%. Asian markets were mixed also, with the Hang Seng up 0.31%, the CSI 300 down 0.20%, and the Nikkei 225 up around 1%.
- Gold is puking on the stronger dollar, and rise in yields, and is down around 1.65% to 1,684, with Silver down by as much as 2.25% (we've now lost the 200 day MA). We're trading around 24.08. Platinum is down 0.60%, and is sitting at 1,166, while Copper traded lower by 1.45% to 3.97, and Palladium rose by 1.85% to 2,583, after falling by as much as 5% yesterday.
- Crude is down notably, with WTI down 1.7%, and trading at 60.46, and Brent down around 1.57%, and trading around 63.96.
- Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM!
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
BEARISH COUNT - Is there a top in place?Hello traders,
this is a possible wave count on the EURUSD, providing a bearish scenario.
US bond yields are rising rapidly providing strength into the USD. the DXY is currently trading under a key trend line resistance (see the comment section below).
FED Chair Jerome Powell has attempted to calm inflation fears this week during his testimony, however the market appears to be ignoring his comments.
Initially, we thought wave 5 had not completed, however, if there is a break back below the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation, then we can assume a top is in place and we are set for a deeper correction.
If anyone has any other wave counts please share below in the comment section!
March rate cuts had nothing to do with COVID...but the pandemic offered pretext to take dramatic action when it was already needed.
When J. Powell started announcing rate cuts after the late 2019 'taper tantrum', nobody was surprised, either by the cuts or their size. These were modest cuts announced in successive FOMC releases. All seemed normal and the market appeared to take a breather on slightly lower rates.
Then something peculiar happened in March 2020. Powell announced quite large rate cuts, not once, but twice, in two weeks, outside of the FOMC schedule. The pretext of course, was the pandemic, but the timing might suggest otherwise. Looking at the band of yields, you can see that the curve was already collapsing in January and February. The histogram displayed with the yield band is a composite indicator of all yield curves, each duration being weighed against the next. It appears that the rate cuts announced during FOMC after the 'taper tantrum' were insufficient to set the curve free, and it was still collapsing under higher rates. Powell needed to act quickly and aggressively. The pandemic offered the pretext of an outside threat to the economy. A one-off black swan event. This allowed taking action without having to explain that the bond market was already in deep trouble. The timing of the out-of-schedule rate cuts were both on days that the US10Y broke below key support.
US 10 Year Yield: Right Where It Should BeSometimes you need to zoom your chart out for perspective.
This run-up in yields has been fast, but looking at the 40+ year trend of US10Y, it appears merely corrective after bonds were panic bid in March 2020.
Higher yields from here will weigh heavily on over-valued and over-indebted companies. Looking at you, tech stocks. Some attrition in this area over the next few years would, in my opinion, benefit the overall health of the economy in the long term.
S&P500 on the crossroadsAfter a year of phenomenal growth of stocks, commodities and assets we have made it to the crossroads.
We will see more growth or is it time for a (temporary) cool off period and will major investors bring their money to a safer place?
The opposite is true for the DXY, is it time for a bullish DXY for the short, mid term or was is this the last glow of the dollar?
Lots of uncertainty on the markets and with me; one thing is true: we are on the crossroads.
I am glad to hear your opinion about where you think this is going....
