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Us10y!

GOLD SHORT TO $1,954 (HEDGE UPDATE)📉We've seen a lot of structures get broken to the downside today, indicating a stronger sell off opportunity. If you look to the right, you'll see later on (few days) we expect Gold to come retest this zone for Wave B. In order for this to be a good Wave B retest zone, we expect 1 of the following 2👇🏽 1. Strong move down here, leaving imbalance which can be filled later on. 2. Market to range here for the next day or 2, create a consolidation zone, drop below & then come back to retest later on.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
Top of the world... again.The scale of what is happening cannot be understated. Massive amounts of money have been printed, then burned immediately. It is as if the FED is trolling us... Or we are being trolled by our own minds. Equities reflect the mental state of investors, big and small alike. The dilemma is causing headaches, it has reached a paradoxical state. No human, not even ChatGPT can solve paradoxes, it is not suicidal. This chart is one attempt into clearing the picture. This exotic chart attempts to calculate the price of equities based on the current state of yield curve inversion. It can help calculate the "absolute" strength of indices like IXIC. Similar calculations can be made using the DXY*IXIC/100 formula. It has reached with incredible accuracy the 1.272 retracement, as shown in the main chart. In short, the higher this chart goes, the better the QE Machine performs. The Yield Curve is now showing a clear warning signal. I have been watching closely the price action, now it is more certain than ever that the yield curve may correct sooner than later. A correction of the yield curve has usually led to severe recessions. After all of this analysis, still no conclusion about equities... Occam's razor could be the solution. Clear and simple analysis gives the best results. --- 1. Simple Price Patterns. Sometimes, the simplest answer is the correct one. --- 2. Classic Dow Theory. It dictates that the weakness of the few may lead to the weakness of the many. DJI is the first to show signs of weakness. Will wider indices like SPX weaken? With bear flags clearly appearing, and an apparent HnS pattern forming, things couldn't get worse. The post-GFC bull market may fail any time now. --- 3. The Basis of Stock Market There is this rule that everybody knows and most forget. Price is split between two areas, above and below average. When price is above average, sellers dictate price. Similarly, when price is below average, buyers dictate prices. Price is higher than average for a long-long time. It is one of the longest-standing equity bull markets. For many years, equity prices are facing increasing selling pressure and decreasing buying pressure. Why? Because investors progressively cash-out of equities. There may be too little interest for serious investors to buy into equities. Equities are too expensive and too risky for them to be a viable investment decision. You can find more about investment risk in @SPY_Master 's idea linked below. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. There is much information I may have left out of this idea. I don't want to be repetitive and I try to keep ideas short and clear. You can find more info about the QE Machine in the following idea.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by akikostas
That hasn't happened for a long time.Hi. Of course there will be some sort of technical rollback soon, it will take a year or so. But, most importantly there is a super bullish quick signal for The 10-Year Treasury Yield. It has happened now, this month, for the first time since 1986. Obviously there is a long cycle of rising 10-year yields ahead of us. Good article in Forbes from a month ago. I recommend it to novice traders who want to understand the impact of US10Y returns on the market.
TVC:US10YLong
by averkie_skila
You against inflationMoney printing has been a double-edged sword. One one hand ample liquidity helped the exponential productivity of the economy, on the other hand inflation hit hard. In periods of stagflation like the 1970s, immense inflation created an impenetrable ceiling for equities. In periods of extreme deflation (2010s), equities bubbled. It is interesting that in this period, inflation figures were are all-time lows, with immense money printing. With this chart we attempt to measure when and how much equities managed to overperform the weight of inflation. There are two methods of calculating inflation, one is total money printed, and the other is the "cumulative inflation". If we analyze SPX compared to money printed, this would be the outcome: This is not very helpful, since SPX is too closely related to total money printed. To measure "cumulative inflation" I attempted modifying this chart by @SPY_Master DBC*GOLD is a good estimate of inflation. Since we don't have enough historical data for the DBC index, we analyze one of it's cousins, the PPIACO index. DBC is an energy-focused mutual fund, while PPIACO measures the production cost. We assume that PPIACO*GOLD is a suitable replacement for DBC*GOLD. We end up with the cover chart, which I will briefly analyze, since it speaks on it's own. For almost 10 years we were attempting at penetrating the ribbon, to no avail... These fib-retracements are very beautiful... SPX: NDQ: They all prove that there is massive weight on top of us. After almost 10 years of trying to get back inside the high-energy-level above, can we do it now? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
US 10Y TREASURY: pricing Fed pivotingThere has been a lot of anxiety on the market whether the Fed will hike interest rates for one more time till the end of this year, as Fed Chair Powell mentioned a few months ago. However after the inflation data were officially released during the previous week, the market is currently almost quite sure that the Fed will not further increase its interest rates. Now the attention is switched to the question when the Fed will start to cut interest rates. Although Treasury yields expressed some volatility during the previous week, still, as of the end of the week they returned to the previous levels. For the second week in a row, the 10Y Treasury yields were moving between levels of 4.67% down to 4.43%. Testing the potential for higher grounds showed that there is no market potential for such a move. Charts are suggesting that a short support level of 4.4% needs to be tested in the coming days in order for 10Y yields to find a new ground. A short move toward the up side is possible, however, not highly above the 4.5%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bull market begins: BTC.D (below 50), USDT.D (below 5.89)Hello traders! If you "Follow" us, you can always get new information quickly. Please also click “Boost”. Have a good day. ------------------------------------- (USDT chart) A large volatility occurred on November 8th and the gap continues to rise. Accordingly, we can see that funds are continuously flowing into the coin market. ----------------------------------------- (USDC chart) It is unclear whether USDC's continued decline is causing funds to flow out of the coin market or to be converted to USDT. However, because the USDC market is not active, USDC movements do not have a direct influence on the coin market. Since USDC continues to fall, I believe it is forming a separate market different from the stock market. It is believed that the movements of the stock market due to the volatility of government bonds (US10Y) and DXY are consistent with the current movements of the coin market and have no special meaning. (US10Y chart) Since US10Y showed a short-term decline, it appears that the stock market is temporarily on the rise. (DXY chart) Since DXY is located around 105.664-106.416, it is difficult to say that the investment market is active yet, so you should be careful about investing. -------------------------------------------------- ------------ (BTC.D chart) BTC dominance is showing resistance and falling around 53.68. Accordingly, we can see that funds are being concentrated towards altcoins. However, since BTC dominance is above 50, you can see that more funds are still concentrated in BTC. Therefore, I think caution is still needed when investing in altcoins. -------------------------------------------------- --- (USDT.D chart) If USDT dominance falls below 5.89-6.39 and remains, the coin market is expected to begin a bull market, i.e. a bull market. However, as mentioned in the explanation of the BTC dominance chart, the actual bull market is expected to begin only when BTC dominance falls below 50. Therefore, it can be said that the 5.89-6.39 section corresponds to the boundary section. This means that even if it pretends to fall below this boundary, it may rise. In this market situation, I think that buying when a downward candle is on the 1D chart will lead to better trading than through breakout trading (buying when the price breaks upward through important support and resistance areas). You should be aware that if the altcoin you own is not rising and you switch to another altcoin that is rising, there is a high possibility that the altcoin you have held will rise from then on. -------------------------------------------------- - The big picture The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K. This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K. -------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------- ** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment. ** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA. How to display (in order from darkest to darkest) More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA ** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own. ** This chart was created using my know-how. ---------------------------------
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by readCrypto
1
MV=PQ RevisitedHistorical data can be hard to compare against modern ones. The longer back an analyst goes, the better the results of their analysis. 100 years of yield rate analysis may seem enough... 5000 years of interest rates however is a whole new story. Money has been as cheap as it has been for the past 5000 years. Incredible numbers... Source: www.trustnet.com Fun Fact: Banks have existed since the early days of humanity! Unsurprisingly, trading is not a modern invention. Many agree that yield rates have been too low and equities too high. Some go against the flow and suggest that the stock market bubble has yet to come. I have been looking here and there, trying to find the reason the .com bubble was created in the first place. With that in mind I hoped that I would find when the next one will come... Price has just skipped through the previous ceiling, and is now in a new territory. The drawn channel suggests that SPX hasn't reached the top of its channel. There are many more comparisons that may suggest that equities haven't peaked. By comparing DJA with one of its subsets (DJI) we have concluded that the DOW hasn't saturated yet. This analysis above is as classical as it gets. While many thought equities would die ... ... the Bane of Traders has trapped many of us, myself included. Big-Tech dominance inside Nasdaq Composite suggests that a .com bubble may be brewing inside IXIC, just like we saw in SPX/CPIAUCSL in 1994. Onto the basics of financial now. MV=PQ is one of the foundations of how economies function. For more information read my previous idea: For simplicity reasons, we merge PQ. I don't have financial data for each one of them. PQ for the US is considered as the GDP. Another example of GDP can be SPX, which extends beyond the limits of US soil. GDP has been slowing down... USGDP is the total cost of all products produced in the US. A slowing GDP means a slowing net-production of the US market. If productivity hasn't changed significantly in the past decade, a slowing GDP may be due to falling prices. And with yield rates nearing zero in 2020, we can safely say that inflation has turned negative in the US. A slowing GDP may also mean that equities have slowed down. This gives more importance to the incoming-equity-bubble scenario. An equity bubble may come for some, but not for all. The tide has turned in favor of NDX against IXIC, and DJI against DJA. Charting suggests wealth accumulation in a smaller part of the main idices. GDP may be breaking out. With money velocity (main chart) in record-low values, we can expect faster money flow in the years to come. That means increased productivity/inflation/GDP. As expected, long-term inflation may also be breaking out of its decreasing trend. Don't forget: High inflation may be a problem for some. An increased GDP growth caused by high inflation will certainly help the chosen big-ones. There cannot be high GDP with nobody profiting from it. To get rich you must inherit or steal. -Aristotle Onassis In the end, trading hasn't changed at all in 5000 years. There are still pirates, kings, queens, emperors and peasants. Markets will march upwards with or without us. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
FRED:GDP
by akikostas
1
This Statement is FalseCharting is amazing. The excitement it gives me is far greater than the satisfaction a good trade could ever give me. It is easy for me to state this fact since I don't trade. I consider the stock market as a super-long-term strategy. A strategy that lasts for generations, not a career. After all, the most wealthy have ancestors heavily invested in the stock market decades ago. Charting can be prone to showing ghosts when there are none. We tend to believe a crisis is coming, when in fact it is ending. No wonder the yield curve is super important. With specific adjustments to rates, the FED manages to accelerate and decelerate the economy. I recently found out about the following chart: SPX-equal-weight vs SPX-market-cap This chart represents "democracy" in wealth distribution between the 500 members of SPX. The higher the chart, the more spread out the wealth distribution. Now we are apparently reaching what appears to be a significant floor. There is a lot of ground to cover regarding this chart above. First things first, there appears to be a significant correlation between yield rates and wealth spread. There also appears to be a lag on this chart. First there is a wealth distribution change, and then the yield rates change appropriately. The charts above state that high yield rates go hand-in-hand with higher wealth distribution. At first this may seem counter-intuitive. How on earth do high yield rates help the markets? We all know that equities suffered last year because of the rapid rate hike. It is simple, really. High yield rates encourage banks to lend money. High yield rates help spread money from the few to the many. As a historical analogue we could compare the SPX/DJI chart. This chart is false. The many vs the few is not what you think it is. There is one caveat with this chart. SPX is a market-cap index while DJI is a stock-price index. With that in mind we should consider the following: -- The SPX/DJI chart is not 100% comparable. It may even represent the "average cost" of a stock. Since Market-Cap (money) is divided by Stock-Price (stock). -- In hindsight, we realize that the Great Depression happened in a period of ample and cheaper stocks, with market cap diminishing. It might have been the absolute definition of a bubble. Buyers bought progressively more and more stocks that came into existence out of thin air. Does this story ring any bells? Has anyone heard about derivatives? The RSP/IVV chart we talked before had an excellent behavior and correlation to yield rates. All was well, until now. Now we have an issue... The RSP/IVV ratio, which appears to lead yield rates is rapidly dropping. With that in mind, the FED should have lower yield rates into what the market prices them. Right now, the FED attempts killing the market. A conclusion is hard to make. Both the SPX/DJI charts, and the RSP/IVV-yield-rate chart suggest that yield rates are significantly overextended upwards. Have we leaped too fast too quick? Has the FED overreacted? Does wealth distribution suggest lower rates in the months to come? Has the market settled with a low-rate hyper-inflationary future? Will the RSP/IVV floor give-in? Is a roaring '20s-like bubble brewing? Just like our "friend" Musk called... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
US 10Y TREASURY: no more rate hikes?Fed Chair Powell's speech in front of the IMF audience in Washington had some impact on the Treasury yields, but it seems that the market is still not ready to take another rate hike for granted. Namely, Powell`s hawkish tone on a possibility of another rate hike if the inflation “reaccelerate'' had an short impact on 2Y Treasuries which moved back to 5%, but the 10Y Treasuries remained relatively flat, which provided some market confidence that the Fed is finished with further increases of interest rates. It is also worth mentioning that the US 30-year bond auction was held during the previous week with the lowest demand within the last two years. The 10Y Treasury yields were moving relatively flat during the previous week, ranging from 4.6% down to 4.48%. Still, they are finishing the week at 4.65%. Charts are pointing to a probability for 4.8% to be tested for one more time. However, a move back toward the 5% yield, is highly unlikely at this moment. On the opposite side, the next support line stands at 4.4%, which is also pending testing in the weeks to come.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – Buy what’s strong sell what’s weak After a more subdued week on the event risk front, the week ahead refocuses traders’ attention on global growth dynamics, with China, Europe, and the US in the spotlight. The US CPI print is the marquee data point, but it will take a big upside surprise (vs consensus expectations) to bring the December or January FOMC meeting to a ‘live’ status, and interest rates traders will likely be trading expectations for 2H24 rate cuts over near-term. The USD has found a modest bid of late and tests the 106-handle, with EURUSD gravitating towards 1.0600 and USDJPY into 151.50. While we have seen some pockets of movement in FX, realised volatility (1-week) is super low, and we see nearly all pairs at or below the 10th percentile of the 12-month range. The RSIs are all around the 50 level, which speaks to a lack of trending conditions and our trading conditions. A cheeky MoF JPY-intervention would shake things up, but buying JPY solely for this idea is for the special situation trader. US real rates are pushing higher once again and worth putting on the radar and with the geopolitical risk premium being priced out of gold, we could easily see gold re-establish its typically high correlation with bond market dynamics. A simple look at the higher timeframes shows the sellers firmly in control here, with price testing the 38.2 fibo of the October-November rally – a break of 1933 should see 1910/00 come into play. Platinum and palladium can be put on the radar too, as neither can find a friend in this market and while grossly oversold, should find sellers into strength. Our equity index flow is still quite lively, and clearly, the NAS100 is where the fast money is right now, and traders are buying what’s working and is hot and selling what’s not working – momentum is therefore the strategy du jour. This is true of the crypto space too. Long NAS100/short US2000 is another expression if one is to play a lower beta strategy or long NAS100/short China another, but with China’s growth and credit data in play this week that trade has risk, as Chinese authorities will not want equity bourses to break YTD lows. We also see Alibaba and Tencent reporting quarterly numbers this week, so the HK50 could get lively this week. Friday's outlook downgrade by Moody’s has certainly caught a bit of attention. No one in the market is too shocked by this and the rationale for the outlook change to negative is for reasons that have been well discussed. Still, this is the fourth ratings action this year by a ratings agency and the odds are we can expect the rating to be cut at some stage, marking the point where the US has lost its AAA status by all 3 agencies. It is not a market-moving story and semantics are at play. One can expect the Republicans to leverage this in the elections next year and while immigration (border security), abortion/women’s rights, and the economy are key voting determinants, the government’s fiscal position is certainly a factor that is starting to become a mainstream factor too. The marquee event risks of the week • US govt shutdown – the deadline for Congress to avoid a govt shutdown is the 17 Nov. This will likely get front-page news as it further speaks to a dysfunctional Congress but shouldn’t be a major catalyst for cross-market volatility. It does look like the wheels are in motion for a short-term solution, with Speaker Johnson presented a temporary and staggered funding plan that would see some govt agencies funded through January, and others to February. • China credit data (no set date this week – anytime) – China’s new yuan loans & M2 money supply could influence sentiment, with the consensus expecting a sizeable fall in new loans in October at RMB655b (from RMB2310b in Sept). Below consensus loan data could see sellers in Chinese/HK equity markets, with the CHINAH index looking to revisit the October lows around 5800. • UK jobless claims and wages report (14 Nov 08:00 AEDT) – UK wages are expected to fall a tick to 7.7%. Any number on wages below 7.7% would see the GBP spike lower. • EU Q3 GDP (14 Nov 21:00 AEDT) – after a number of weak data reports from the Eurozone of late, we get EU Q3 GDP which is expected to come in at -0.1% QoQ and +0.1% yoy. EURGBP is worth putting on the radar, with price threatening to start bull trending and a move through 0.8760 would see momentum tick up and raise the probability of a stronger move to 0.8900. • Aus Q3 Wage Price Index (15 Nov 11:30 AEDT) – The economists’ consensus is for wages to increase 1.3% QoQ / 3.9% yoy (from 3.6%). With a 6% chance of a hike in the December RBA meeting and a 32% probability priced for the February RBA meeting, a 4-handle on wages would see hike expectations rise once more. • China monthly data releases (15 Nov 13:00 AEDT) – China Industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment are due with the market expecting some improvement across the range of growth data points, notably in retail sales which are eyed at +7% yoy (from 5.5% in Sept) • US CPI (15 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the key event risk of the week – the market expects headline inflation at 0.1% mom / 3.3% yoy, and core CPI at 0.3% mom / 4.1% yoy. Using core CPI month-on-month as a guide, a print below 0.2% mom would likely see USD sellers and fuel further gains in the NAS100. A rise above 0.35% mom would see USD buyers and possibly weigh on gold and equities. • UK CPI (15 Nov 18:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 4.7% yoy (from 6.7%) / core CPI 5.8% (from 6.1%). Providing we don't see a strong upside surprise, the further moderation in inflation justifies the rates pricing, with no hikes priced in Q224, and the door open for cuts from June 24. Comments from BoE member Haskel after the UK CPI print could be interesting for GBP traders. • US retail sales (16 Nov 00:30 AEDT) – the consensus is for a decline of 0.3% mom, driven by weaker new vehicle and gasoline sales. Importantly, the ‘control group’ element – the group of goods that feeds more directly into the GDP calculation - is expected to rise 0.2%. The outcome of this data point could see growth nowcast models being revised higher or lower, with Q4 GDP estimates currently running around 2%. • Aussie jobs report (16 Nov 11:30 AEDT) – The consensus is for 25K jobs created and the U/E rate at 3.7% (unchanged). Coming after the Q3 WPI the outcome of the jobs report could further impact expectations for a hike in February or March, and by extension cause a short-term move in the AUD. Corporate earnings of note • US corp earnings – US retailers report this week and could offer guidance and insights into margins and the US consumer – Home Depot (14 Nov – after-market), Target (15 Nov - after-market) and Walmart (16 Nov - 23:00 AEDT) get the focus. • HK Corp earnings – Tencent (15 Nov) and Alibaba (16 Nov) report quarterly earnings. • ASX200 – ANZ FY23 earnings (13 Nov) Central bank speakers • RBA – Kohler speaks (13 Nov 10:30 AEDT) • Fed – There are 22 scheduled Fed speakers this week. Those speaking after the US CPI print would be more insightful. • ECB - There are 17 different scheduled ECB speakers this week – see the schedule below • BoE – we hear from BoE members Breeden, Mann, Dhingra, Huw Pill, Haskel, Ramsden and Greene
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
🧽 Mister Poper. Meet The Cleaner Of Your DreamsCopper price continued to provide negative trades affected by the frequent stability below the additional barrier at 3.7280, to manage to reach some negative stations by touching 3.6100. Also, RSI stochastic continues to provide the negative momentum to allow us to suggest forming new negative waves to attack the additional support near 3.5000 followed by monitoring its behavior to manage to confirm the upcoming trend. The expected trend: Bearish
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Pandorra
GPSC We can see that GPSC is correlated with US10Y. . US10Y is at a peak level of 5.00% , And with a possible of retracement to 50% Equilibrium of the highest and the lowest of US10Y which is at 2.680% (as of1 Aug 22) . With this information we can target GPSC at the same level of 1 Aug 22 which is 71 Baht. . Entry around this level will possibly gain around 65%. . . . . 🧅Disclaimer :There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. This is Not Financial Advice 🧅JUST AN OPINION OF THE ONION.🧅
SET:GPSCLong
by MLGONION
US10Y ~ Intraday Analysis (2H Chart)TVC:US10Y intraday mapping/analysis. US yields dip while bonds & stocks rip. US10Y in clear downtrend with potential bearish H&S pattern developing, TBC. H&S development would correlate with bonds/stocks pullback before further bullish momentum into EOY. Left shoulder, head & neckline outlined. Right shoulder parameters: Rally above ascending 1st trend-line (green dashed) Resistance at 200SMA, gap fill, 2nd ascending trend-line (green dashed) + upper range of descending parallel channel (white) Price action rolls over to re-test/break neckline & validate pattern Prelim target = lower range of ascending parallel channel (light blue) + 50% Fib confluence zone. Note: break of "neckline" before right should formation negates H&S = express trip to prelim target.
TVC:US10YShort
by BlueHatInvestor
US10Y Extremely overbought on Bearish Divergence. Sell longterm?The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having the first red month (1M) after rising non-stop since May. It has been on extremely overbought levels for the last 12 months as the price established itself above the multi-decade Bearish Megaphone pattern, the same way it was oversold below it following the March 2020 COVID crash. As you know the price quickly corrected back inside the Bearish Megaphone in a pure technical harmonization process of the extreme levels. Technically it should follow a similar reversal now again, as the most important technical development of the year is October's Lower Highs formation on the 1M RSI. This is a huge Bearish Divergence as the price during the same period is trading on Higher Highs. The same kind of Bearish Divergence has only been spotted another two times in the last +40 years. On both occasions, an aggressive decline started. As a result it is only natural to expect a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test before 2024 is over, which right now is a huge early sell signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
US 10Y TREASURY: yields have peakedThe final breakthrough for the US Treasury yields was the latest FOMC meeting where the Fed decided not to increase further interest rates. Although, they are leaving the possibility for further hikes in case that inflation remains persistent, still, the market perceived it as the end of the Fed's rate hikes. At the beginning of the week, the 10Y US Treasuries tried for one more time to test the 5.0% level, reaching only 4.92%. There was clearly no market strength to push the yields further to the upside. After the Fed's meeting, yields dropped to the level of 4.6%, while after the Friday`s jobs data, yields ended the week at the level of 4.57%. There is still space for yields to relax and move to the downside. Actually the level which is currently pending testing is 4.4%, which might be tested during the week ahead. Further supporting level stands at 4.0%, but currently there is no clear indication on charts that it might be tested in the week ahead. Evidently, the yields started their reversal path, and they will certainly not return back to the previous levels around 5.0%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y - Is it a "sea change" or a strong buy for TLT and TMF ?In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets. When I have seen below charts of TVC:US10Y , I have remembered that interview: (Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U ) TVC:US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this long lasting channel has been broken at April 2022, and upper line of the channel became support at July and August of 2022. So there are some signs that it's not a fake going out of channel like the one in 2020 March. Does Howard Marks right by saying it's a "sea change" ? And in this weekly chart of TVC:US10Y , we can see it has formed a new uptrend in a new channel: (Maybe you can view the chart with /x/DHeM0t8W ) See how good it has used that upmoving support. Now, we are again hitting that support and if that support line is broken, it would be a "strong buy" for NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF . Both graphs have given bullish divergence recently: (Maybe you can view the charts with /x/2jGkJkCJ and /x/5NGqJ3Ze ) This week we will see if TVC:US10Y will break the channel and confirm the bullish divergence of TLT and TMF. If the support would been broken at TVC:US10Y , then 4.20 and 3.40 and 2.75 are the levels to watch for the bullish trend of NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. In conclusion, if TVC:US10Y will break the channel this week, I'm long in NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF. If not, we will keep watching if Howard Marks was right and it's really a sea change.
TVC:US10YShort
by alikasapoglu
SPX | Balance of PowerNot all is equal. And nothing is static. Entropy is the foundation of our world, and it is the bane of a rich man's existence. You collect in one spot, then nature comes up and spreads your work around. Entropy is the unbeatable power of justice. In the end entropy always wins. One has limited amount of time to temporary evade it. Panta Rhei - Heraclitus Everything flows. Money just like water, tends to move around. It is what it is meant to do. Rich men need poor ones to collect from. In the end, there is nothing else to collect from the poorer ones. But the cycle must continue. No rich man could ever possibly give out wealth for free. Instead, they let nature do its trick and rebalance things. I will now try to make a rough model of the changes in markets. Divide markets in distinct periods so as to have a better understanding on the progress of a bull market. Energy Conservation Money and entropy tend to spread out. When the stock market was "invented", few had the stocks and many had the money. Trading is a way to manipulate entropy to our advantage. We let nature spread what we don't need, and as a repayment we accumulate what we need. The stock market is like a free energy machine . The invention of the stock market resulted in a massive wealth transfer, and ended with a painful crash; The Great Depression. The peak of the Roaring '20s was the peak of wealth accumulation from the few. In the post-Great-Depression economy, money spread out again. From the few to the many. In these decades, DJI (the big 30) stagnated while SPX (the 500) progressively got stronger. But the big-30 had an ace up their sleve. In trading the game must always go on. There is always a way to get richer. And so, commodities became the new place for wealth to accumulate to. From all of the above we have come to realize that bubble tops come when the few have accumulated the maximum possible from the many. DJI/SPX measures oligarchy, while the inverse SPX/DJI measures democracy in the spread of wealth in stocks. Many bubbles and many crashes have followed after the Great Depression. The .com bubble crash and the GFC are memorable to young and old alike. And they all exhibit the same base structure. It is all the same, with one crucial difference. The 2020 economy is vastly different from the 1920 economy. The role of SPX and DJI has changed in the last few decades. DJI used to represent the companies that shaped bubbles and SPX the ones that followed. Now NDX and SPX are the indices that represent fast growth while DJI has taken the role of the "index of stability". The modern balance-of-power measure is the following: SPX-equal-weight divided by SPX-market-cap. www.tradingview.com Since I couldn't find an SPX-equal-weight index in TradingView, I have constructed a similar chart using two ETFs, RSP and IVV. The RSP/IVV chart is a good analogue to the standard chart. And so, where do we conclude? After much analysis we can say the following in retrospect. The 2008 bubble was quick but with big repercussions. Money democracy shows signs of impeding financial weakness. And as for the post-2009 Bull Market... We realize that it progressively turns into a bubble. While there is no definitive way to "normalize" SPX, SPX/M2SL proves a good candidate for absolute SPX cost. Yield rates tell many tales. Usually yield rates increase as the wide economy needs them. Strong economies need a lot of money and they can withstand high yield rates. And contrary to popular belief, yield rates are positively correlated with yield rates. Now however, the wide economy refuses to absorb such high yield rates. High production cost and high rates can destabilize the economy. Money Democracy is Positively Correlated to Yield Rates. Now we witness the wide economy refuse to absorb these yields. This has resulted in unprecedented wealth accumulation from the few. Speculation Chart: While this type of analysis is subjective, it is interesting to see patterns repeat. Composite Chart: An experimental chart attempts to calculate the scale of the derivative bubble we are in. We realize that equity prices are now lying. They are simply too inflated and riddled with derivatives to believe in. All of that was quite complex to follow through, and even harder to make a conclusion. In the end, the simplest analysis might be the best. A massive bearish upward channel has formed. Now price has rejected once again off the ceiling. The real recession may have not even started yet... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori Bonus Charts: Have we reached a golden ceiling?
AMEX:RSP
by akikostas
4