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US10Y

US 10Y TREASURY: digesting Fed`s narrative Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some relaxation in 10Y Treasury yields, so they moved from 4.34% as a highest weekly level toward the supporting 4.2%. Current question is whether yields are preparing for a move toward levels from the beginning of March, when they were standing at 4.0%? On a long run, they will certainly make this move, however, probably not during the week ahead. The reason is that markets take time to digest all the information received, and then make a decision on a clear move. In this sense, for the week ahead the most probable scenario is that 10Y Treasury yields will take some time to test the 4.2% before they decide for a move toward the lower grounds.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
US 10Y TREASURY: rethinking timeSince the beginning of this year, until last week, the markets were certain that inflation is on the down-path and that the Fed might cut interest rates somewhere in May this year. However, the February inflation data made the markets rethink their initial assumptions. The inflation seems to be more persistent than initially estimated, in which sense, the rate cutting time by the Fed might come somewhere in the second half of this year. The market reacted on officially released data, so the 10Y benchmark yields returned a bit toward the higher grounds, reaching the level of 4.3% during Friday`s trading session. It should be considered that the week ahead might bring back some volatility. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, as well as FOMC economic projections. The market will gain more insights into the course of the potential future monetary actions by the Fed and will position accordingly. In this sense, some increased volatility might be expected. However, the level of 4.3% seems as a peak on charts at this moment, from where some relaxation might be expected, at least toward the 4.2% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
3
US10Y Expect to see a new High.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target (TP = 4.600%) is intact. If the 0.786 Fibonacci level breaks, we will buy after the first 1D MA50 pullback. The 1D RSI is also posting a similar early rally sequence to April-May 2023 and December 2022-January 2023. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
US 10Y TREASURY: currently without doubtsDuring the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording “at some point” during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected that the rate cut might occur in May, currently the odds are 80% that it might happen in June this year. Treasury yields were aligned accordingly. The 10Y US benchmark rate slipped from the level of 4.2% at the start of the week toward the 4.0% as of the weekend. Such a move was a clear sign that the market has no more doubts that the rate cuts are coming. Inflation rate for February as well as retail sales in the US are set for a release in a week ahead. Any surprises on this side might impact some volatility on the markets, however, without a significant move toward either side. The 10Y Treasuries will continue to test the 4.0% with a low probability that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, some moves toward 4.1% are more probable.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bearish Yields Could Send USDollar LowerUS Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%. At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in 2023. Currently we can see some recovery for the USdollar, as Yields are in a corrective rally within wave B, but as soon as wave C shows up, USdollar can be back to bearish mode. If we respect technical analysis, Elliott wave theory and positive correlation in the markets, then Yields could send USdollar - DXY lower away from important trendline connected from the highs soon.
TVC:US10YShort
by ew-forecast
US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High. As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2