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US10Y

US 10Y TREASURY: gearing to revert?The latest macro data are showing that the inflation is easing, however, it remains sticky. There is a lot of discussion among economists lately, whether CPI will remain on its downtrend, or we could expect another spike in inflation figures in the coming months. The PPI index posted during the previous week is showing that the inflation might stay resilient for some time. Investors ended the previous week digesting these mixed data. At the same time, the US Treasuries reacted with modestly higher yields. 10Y Treasuries ended the week at level of 4.15%, while were traded around 4% during the week. The next Fed move cannot be anticipated with a higher level of certainty as it was for the FOMC July session because of currently mixed data. Fed Chair Powell is continuously stressing that Fed decisions will be data driven. In this way the market also reacted on Friday`s session to PPI data, anticipating another rate hike by the Fed. Markets were close to the level of 4.2%, which is significant in a sense, that it might further open a path for yields to reach 4.4% as they did last time in October 2022. However, for the moment there is a much higher probability that yields will revert a bit toward the 4.0% in order to test this level for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: just a short easing?Surprising news hit the market during the previous week, when rating agency Fitch announced that it has downgraded the US government long-term debt credit rating by one notch to AA+. Market reacted with a negative sentiment. Equity markets went to downside, while Treasury yields went to upside. US 10Y Treasuries moved from 3.9% up to the highest weekly level at 4.2%. Still, yields have ended the week at level of 4.0%. A move above 4% opened a path toward the 4.4% level, where yields were last standing during October last year, however, there is still time in the future until this level is reached again. For the moment, markets are focused on US inflation data which will be released during the week ahead. Depending on the results, some market volatility might be expected, especially, considering that posted average hourly earnings showed an increase of 0.4% for July. The level of 4% will be tested at the beginning of the week, with some probability that 3.9% might be reached. At this moment charts are not pointing that yields might go lower from this level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
USD/JPY: Fundamental Economic Analysis for Fri 8/4/23The recent decline in the value of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was halted at around 142.5 to the dollar as investors continued to assess the impact of the Bank of Japan's policy adjustment after it loosened its grip on interest rates and allowed the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to climb above the upper limit of 0.5%. Recently, the Bank of Japan allowed the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to go over the previous maximum of 0.5%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) did not change its policy interest rates at its July meeting but did take steps toward more adaptable yield curve management. This was seen as a warning that it would not rigidly uphold the 0.5% maximum limit on the 10-year yield. If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) were to take an unexpected step for the first time since Governor Kazuo Ueda assumed office, it would likely promote wagering on the continuation of policy normalization. For months, investors have speculated that Japan's central bank, the only major one to adopt a dovish stance, could cave in the face of mounting pressure on the country's bond yields and currency from persistent inflation and rising global interest rates. Rising global interest rates have put pressure on Japanese yen and bond yields, leading to this conjecture. Following a credit rating downgrade in the United States and a major run-up in rates on United States Treasury securities, a wave of risk-off emotion swept through the market, sending the Nikkei 225 Index and the wider Topix Index down by week's end. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Topix Index rose on Friday, with the former ending the day at 32,193.3 and the latter at 2,275. Investors kept an eye on the yen and JGB rates while the Bank of Japan convened the previous week and made adjustments to the policy that governs the yield curve. Major components of the Nikkei 225 index posted gains on Friday, including Nippon Yusen (3.1%), Toyota Motor (1.3%), Mitsubishi UFJ (1.8%), SoftBank Group (0.7%), and Nippon Steel (1%). Meanwhile, despite reporting higher sales and operating profit for the second quarter, Nintendo's stock fell 2.9%. Sales at Keyence were down 0.4%, at Renesas Electronics they were down 4%, and at Fast Retailing they were down 0.3%. Following a credit rating downgrade in the United States and a major run-up in rates on United States Treasury securities, a wave of risk-off emotion swept through the market, sending the Nikkei 225 Index and the wider Topix Index down by week's end. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Topix Index rose on Friday, with the former ending the day at 32,193.3 and the latter at 2,275. Investors kept an eye on the yen and JGB rates while the Bank of Japan convened the previous week and made adjustments to the policy that governs the yield curve. Major components of the Nikkei 225 index posted gains on Friday, including Nippon Yusen (3.1%), Toyota Motor (1.3%), Mitsubishi UFJ (1.8%), SoftBank Group (0.7%), and Nippon Steel (1%). Meanwhile, despite reporting higher sales and operating profit for the second quarter, Nintendo's stock fell 2.9%. Sales at Keyence were down 0.4%, at Renesas Electronics they were down 4%, and at Fast Retailing they were down 0.3%. The final June Au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI reading was 54.0, up from the flash print of 53.9. The indicator stood at 53.8 in July of 2023. Despite the services sector expanding for 11 straight months, the most recent figure was the worst since January. This was because new orders grew at their slowest pace in six months, while employment fell after rising for five months straight. For the first time in a year, the total amount of outstanding business fell, with the rate of fall being modest but the fastest seen since April 2022. The quantity of unpaid invoices has dropped for the first time ever. Meanwhile, demand from outside rose at one of the fastest rates recorded during the period, reflecting sustained overseas demand for travel and tourism. For the first time in three months, inflation had a role in driving up operational costs. Energy, fuel, raw materials, and wages might all have played a role in this increase. In conclusion, confidence did not decrease; nevertheless, optimism did fall to its lowest position in five months. The article cites Markit Economics as its reference. Final June 2023 Au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.8 was below July 2023's revised reading of 49.6. The initial July 2023 flash reading was 49.4, however this was amended up to 49.6. Even while output and new orders have both been falling by small amounts, the most recent report indicated that industrial activity has contracted for the sixth time this year. For the sixth time since the new year began, manufacturing output fell. This was the slowest monthly decline in international sales in the previous nine months, despite the fact that international sales had dropped for the seventeenth straight month. The labor force has increased for the 28th consecutive month, and although job queues have been shrinking for the last 10 months, the pace of decline has slowed to its lowest point since October 2022. The current contractionary cycle was also stretched by one year due to the volume of purchases. The cost side had some of the smaller rises in input prices since February 2021, and the overall increase was about in line with the long-term average for the series. While the overall inflation rate remained high, the charged-price inflation was constant after hitting a 21-month low in June. With higher hopes for further demand improvement and the launch of novel new items, confidence is at its best point in the previous year and a half. The reference is to markit economics. ( The Au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI is compiled by S&P Global from monthly survey responses from purchasing managers at a panel of more than 400 companies. The Japanese location of these buying managers. The flagship statistic is the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is a weighted average of the following five indices. Here are the relevant measurements: Incoming Orders (30%), Production (25%), Staffing (20%), Vendor Turnaround (15%), and Inventory (10%). The Suppliers' Delivery Times Index is inverted to make the PMI calculation easier. Because of this, its movements will be in sync with the other indexes. (The index may take on values between 0 and 100; any value over 50 implies expansion over the prior month, while any value below 50 suggests contraction.) In June 2023, Japan's unemployment rate declined to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month, which was in accordance with predictions made by market experts. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since January, with the number of unemployed falling to 1.73 million and the number of employed rising by 191,000 to 67.55 million. A total of 69.27 million Americans are now actively engaged in the labor force, up by 144,000 from a year ago, while the number of individuals not working fell by 60,000 to 40.98 million. The percentage of the population actively looking for work rose to 63.1% in June from 63.0% in the same month a year ago. The impact of seasons on this growth is unknown. The unemployment rate was 2.6% a year ago when we last checked. Meanwhile, in June, there were 1.30 job openings for every 1.31 job seekers, a decrease from May's 1.31 to 1.30. Since July of 2022, this is the lowest it has been. Initially, this information came from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. ( The spot exchange rate indicates the current value of one currency, in this case the US Dollar (USD), in reference to another, in this case the Japanese Yen (JPY). As opposed to the USDJPY forward rate, which is quoted and exchanged on the same day but delivered and paid for at a later date, the USDJPY spot exchange rate is quoted and exchanged on the same day. ) Taylor Norboge wrote and published this article on August 4, 2023 at 13:46 UTC.
Short
by TayFx
2
US 10Y TREASURY: 3.8% would be optimal?The Fed has increased reference interest rates by another 25 bps, exactly as per market expectations. On a positive side is that the US inflation continues to slow down, which increases the probability that the Fed will soon stop with further rate hikes. At least, this is the current expectation from the majority of market participants, but whether this will be so, is to be seen till the end of this year. Fed Chair Powell promised another rate hike till the end of the year, while further hikes will depend on future macro data. The 10Y Treasury yields reached the highest weekly level at 4.04%, ending the week at level of 3.95%. The level of 4% has been tested, but it was hard to sustain this level during the week. Based on charts, a reversal is still not over, in which sense, some lower levels might be tested in a week ahead. In this sense, yields might return to the previous level of 3.8%, with a low probability that 3.6% might be tested during the week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for FOMCTreasury yields ended the week lower, as investors are weighing on a next monetary move of the Fed during next week. FOMC is scheduled for July 26-27th, where the majority of market participants are expecting further increase of interest rates by 25bps. The economy is showing modest signs of slow-down, while some economists are expecting a lagging effect of monetary policy, where recession might come as of the end of this year. In this sense, they are of the opinion that the Fed might pause rate hikes at July's meeting. All these are opinions, while the final view on the US economy will be given by Fed officials after the FOMC meeting. During the week 10Y Treasury yields were mostly concentrated around 3.8% level. Although the lowest weekly level was at 3.73%, as of the weekend yields have returned to 3.8%. It could be expected for 10Y yields to continue to oscillate around 3.8% also at the beginning of the week ahead. Certainly, the crucial date during the week would be July 26th, when the Fed will announce its decision on interest rates. Depending on the outcome of the decision, yields might reach 3.7% or 3.6% levels. A move toward 4% does not seem likely at this moment, based on a technical analysis.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Find The Swan!Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation (Gold*PPIACO) divided by money earned from bonds (modified-yields*M2SL) Note that this chart above does not include equities. DJI/(modified-yields) This chart above measures the rate equities become worthy compared to the cost of money. In a sense, as the chart increases, equities take more of the form of "gold" compared to bonds. More about this in the following idea. These charts above show that the Swan occurred in a significant ceiling. A lockdown does not necessarily lead to massive wealth transfer to big companies, and an immediate crash. This chart below shows that the Swan came as an LPSY phenomenon, in the short-term recession no-one remembers. DJI*(modified-yields) vs DJI So in a sense, long-term charts prove that there was not much room above when the Swan occured. And the short-term chart proves that the event occurred at the absolute last moment , when there was no "supply" left (LPSY). The crash was so fast because there was not much volume left in circulation. So the sell-off was quick. The recovery was immediate because the 2020 Swan by itself didn't create structural issues in the economy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I could get my account banned for spreading conspiracy and misinformation. I really don't care.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4
Return To BaseA "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible speeds. Many use the "stochastic" indicator, and rightfully so. The word stochastic may be coming from the Greek word "stochasmos" which means "thought process". To get a new perspective on these charts we must let nature think for us objectively. The mind of nature spoke. The miracle of China is fading. And the same happens when compared to the "treasure" called Taiwan. Many are willing to fight for it. For experimentation, let's compare the US with the Eurozone. For some unknown-to-me reason, GDP has embedded in it the relative strength of currencies between the two countries. Do note that all GDP is measured in USD. In a sense, relative GDP growth is another way of comparing currency strength. We have gone from comparing equities, to comparing GDP. We concluded that comparing GDP is simply comparing purchasing power of two countries. Currency strength comes from yield rates. The power is given from those who make and define money. Supply + Yields. Power = Money Supply * Money Strength MV = PQ Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. You want to see an Easter Egg? Consider the following equations: MV = PQ Q = GDP M = M2SL V = FRED:M2V P = "price level" 1 / P = "currency strength" Currency Strength = Q / MV In the end, it is up to the FED to decide the future.
FRED:GDP
by akikostas
SPX | The Big OneThe Big One. The big question. Buy or sell? A question is easy. An answer can be hard. Most of us here trade because we believe we have a grasp on the answers. And we have several methods on our toolkit to reach a conclusion. One of these methods is belief . That's what we gamble upon. Belief on indices, stocks, ETFs, currencies is what makes us buy them and sell them. Belief aka. Psychology/Humanity Another one is instinct . You know, the thing that we follow when we are completely lost in a mountain path. Instinct aka. Survival A final one is persuasion . The well and tested kind of making an answer out of nothing. It's what politicians have to use, lawyers and figures like Elon. Our friend who, in two separate days in 2022, posted about both the next recession, and the next bubble. Constructive Argument aka. Business Perhaps we can add to these science. But in the end, science unfortunately tends to get mixed up with all of the above three. But science can be much more than that. A scientist must admit that they cannot give definite answers to anything. So for me to come out and give you definite explanations would be business. To answer where SPX can go, we must first orient ourselves. Remember, we are gambling on a mountain with Musk. So this is SPX, and I let an algorithm draw a channel around it. And this is SPX again, but this time I let a monkey draw a line. Humans tend to stop being humans, and let algorithms draw channels for them like the first one. And if you look closely at the second chart, It resembles the main chart. I basically took the SPX price, calculated its trend, and custom plotted the deviation from its trend. It is "safe" to assume that we are below one of the infinite trends. And here comes the dilemma. So where are we? Above trend like the regression told us, or below trend like the mountain monkey said? Elon, being a gambler, told both. So there must be a way out of this conundrum. Until Musks satellites can give us reception in the forest, no help can come. We must resolve this situation the hard way. Even if SPX is going faster than the log-regression tells us, it loses against Bitcoin. But what can that mean? More questions! SPX is comprised of the largest 500 companies. And they are LARGE. The Big Questions are for the Big Companies. And these guys are high stakes poker players, they don't mess around. It is safe to assume that besides being participants, they are the masters of investing. And of course they follow current investing methods like the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). So where am I going with all of this? BlackRock is proposing making the first Bitcoin ETF. So for the first time since its creation, Bitcoin can be a tool of MPT. We can assume that if such a proposal comes to fruition, big players can enjoy the benefits of crypto for the future growth of their companies valuation. In the end, the answer is a question by itself. Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Bitcoin is an instrument of Big Tech. Will the creation consume its creator? Or will Bitcoin be sacrificed for the greater good? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
9
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting for Fed Debate over the question whether FED should further increase interest rates or not is still quite active among economists. A Nobel-prise winner and economist Christopher Pissarides is of the opinion that there is no need for the US to further increase interest rates, as noted in an interview with CNBC. Many other influential economists share his opinion. However, Fed Chair Powell previously noted that two more rate hikes should be expected till the end of this year. At the same time, CME's Fedwatch is showing investors expectations of 92% for a 25 bps rate hike at July`s FOMC meeting. Until the final decision, US Treasury yields might express higher volatility, as seen during the previous week. 10Y US Treasuries reached the level of 4% two weeks ago, still, during the previous week, yields have dropped to the short term stop at 3.8%. Lowest weekly level was at 3.76%. Volatility around 3.8% might also continue during the week ahead. At this moment on charts, there is a low probability that yields might return to 3.6%. They will rather oscillate around 3.8% or higher, waiting for the FOMC meeting as of the end of July.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y A break below the 1D MA50 will trigger a 2nd sell-off.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that has been supporting the price action since May 16. The long-term trend since the October 21 2022 market top has been bearish, guided downwards by a Lower Lows trend-line but since February it has transitioned into a Rectangle. The recent July 07 High was a direct hit at the top of the Rectangle, so this week's rejection comes as a very natural consequence. If the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, the 2nd part of the Rectangle's bearish leg will most likely be triggered. As you see during this long-term pattern, we've had two -19.70% decline sequences and if the current one turns out to be of that magnitude, we are looking at a 3.300% target. Note that 4 days ago we formed a 1D Golden Cross, technically a bullish pattern, but the previous 1D Death Cross (bearish pattern) turned out to be the Rectangle's bottom. On that notion, the Golden Cross may have formed the top. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
US10Y: Excellent long term sell opportunity.The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such significance. Consequently, we consider the current level early enough for a low risk sell position on the long term, targeting the S3 (TP = 3.300%). As you see, the trading structure follows quite similar legs since November and right now we are most likely on a leg 2. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
9
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% will holdFor some time charts were pointing to a potential for US10Y to reach 4% level, which finally occurred during the previous week. Job figures released for June show that average hourly earnings continue to be increased, 0.4% m/m in June or 4.4% on a yearly basis, which might bring inflation further to the higher grounds, which will push FOMC to further increase interest rates. Market sentiment for an increase in July reached 92%, but whether the Fed will have the same perception is about to be seen as of the end of July, when the FOMC meeting is scheduled. 10Y Treasuries started the previous week around 3.8%, however, after released jobs data, yields jumped to the highest weekly level at 4.09%. Considering current sentiment, it could be expected for yields to continue to be elevated during the week ahead. At this moment, there is decreased potential that they might revert to the previous, 3.8% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
$TNX broke downtrend, rates likely keep goingLong ago we mentioned that #FederalReserve had decision to make. They either chose the Economy or the Markets. They CANNOT do both. It's obvious, plus they keep repeating, with rate hikes where their mindset is. Media states that Wall St thinks that #interestrate will be cut. BUT Looking @ short term rates, they look primed to go higher. #bonds ------------- The 1Yr is moving very nicely. BUT The 2YR picked up a lot lately. It's closing in on the 1Yr. 🚨🚨🚨 The 10Yr #yield is cranking & broke downtrend. #TNX How much higher can things go before they break? We've also mentioned that extreme #currency devaluation has bullish consequences (many countries are an example of this) Dilemma EDIT: We're still forming higher highs so market correction likely not there. This tends to happen once the inverted yield curve fixes itself. 2Yr Peak during great financial crisis was 5.28 10Yr Peak was 4.32 #GOLD #silver CRYPTOCAP:BTC
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC