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US10Y

The Markets Are Weird...Just when I thought SPX was bearish... ...the bulls pull me back in. Not many of us in here made millions from trading. One of the reasons is that the markets are weird. Just when we be lie ve that the bottom is in, another bottom appears. Just when we be lie ve that more down is coming, no more down comes. When you open TradingView, and look at the prices, don't fall for the trap. These are the prices the seller put up. Just like browsing the retail markets, you browse the trade markets. Price action is what the seller wants you to buy into. The standard, dollar-denominated SPX is shaping into a bear flag. The not-dollar-denominated SPX is shaping into a bull flag. This is basically SPX measured against the average non-US buyer. Which one is right??? It is at these points when buyers/sellers get trapped. They expect one movement, and the opposite comes. The "I shorted the bottom" motto must not be misused, everyone can fall for the trap. The Stock Market is about long-term strategies. What matters is the stance you keep. Your stance must not get shaken-up from the news. Last year was the year the classical investment strategy failed. And that occurred in a period when the US economy was not in a technical recession. While we cannot perform meaningful measurements on this chart, the trend change cannot be ignored. From a period of the equity-bond pair being bulletproof, we are heading into a period when it is full of holes. Don't believe me? Listen to one smarter than me explaining it... www.youtube.com And the culprit of last year's pain was bonds. I am comparing it with the META price action from last year. I expect weakness in bonds for many years. Weakness in Bonds can mean only one thing. Money outflowing from bonds and into alternative investments. Be lie ve it or not, in this environment equities may seem like a reasonable thought. To confirm this, we must perform some relative analysis on charts. The KST-Based MACD indicator I developed works beautifully when we want to analyze the performance of a trend. It basically ignores up-down movement. It takes into consideration the relative strength gained-lost. It is a cousin of RSI, and is analyzed like Stochastic RSI / MACD would be. This indicator helps us pinpoint trend strength shifts . A bearish signal could mean that a fast growth is beginning to slow down. A bullish signal could mean that a slow growth/drop might turn bullish/go faster. I will not go into much detail as to what is considered a bullish/bearish signal. An explanation might get too long for this idea. For now, take my word for it... While the US economy (SPX * DXY) might not outright crash, weakness in SPX is apparent. This chart suggests that the bull-flag that is shaping on the SPX * DXY chart is probably a blow-off-top behavior. This however does not mean that the top is in. Price has just reached the mean. From the above we realize that SPX behavior is nearly identical to the 1953 period. More info about it in this idea below: Not all is well for SPX however... Relative weakness of SPX appears, when compared against other continents. Curiously, a bullish relative performance can be seen when compared against Japan. There are however many obstacles for SPX to jump through. The Bitcoin Bubble was born to swallow the Equity Bubble. Besides crypto, the arch-enemy of SPX are commodities. And the best performer of commodities may be oil. From this chart we conclude that oil will beat anything SPX + Gold might throw at it. Perhaps Buffett was right after all, when he called for investing into oil. Finally, a couple of charts for these eternal Gold Bulls... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. Be lie ve it or not, this is a serious idea. Many hate equity bulls, just like they hate gold bears. Some charts do suggest bullishness for equities. Either we trust the analysis or we dictate it.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
US 10Y TREASURY: staying elevated The resilience of the US economy is evident in the latest posted economic figures. Both business and consumer sentiment is improving, while inflation, expressed through PCE continues to slow down. Still, the pending issue is what the FOMC will do at their meetings till the end of this year. As per Fed`s Chair Powell comments, two more rate increases should be expected. Whether that will actually occur, is to be seen till the end of this year, still, possibility of “soft landing” holds. The 10Y Treasury ended Friday`s trading by reaching a level of 3.89%. It seems that the market is anticipating further rate hikes which might stay for a longer period of time at higher levels. With this move, a new chapter on charts was opened, in which terms, a road toward the 4% is now open. This level might be tested in the coming period. As for the week ahead, 10Y yields will open at level of 3.90%. It could not be noted at this moment whether yields will go higher from this level. In case of a short reversal, 3.8% will be tested, with lower probability that yields might return to the 3.6% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Yields are mixed but all point higher, history repeating?🚨🚨🚨 Going to make a stink about #yield again. Short term #interestrates have been creeping higher. Let's👀@ #bond Yields. 6M = holding steady, trading slightly higher. BUT, 1Yr = BROKE RECENT HIGHS. It's at resistance but shows momentum. 2Yr = Closing in on TSX:SVB closure high. This is where #banks began to break down. 10Yr TVC:TNX @ current downtrend is being tested. Break through is good. HUH? Higher = good short term for #stocks. Markets have a history of breaking AFTER rates begin to trade lower and yield curve normalizes. This can take a year or so. Not saying markets will be pumping for a year. Just saying this is historical. We could be setting up for much more upside but with RISK. We posted on the 2008 yield crisis some time ago.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
The Great Train RobberyTrading is a game of poker. - Capitalism is a dirty business. - Like war? - Not exactly. It has important rules one must follow. A game about money is a cold blooded game. One player must deceive the other to win, the so called bluff. Fear is a weapon of war. The house always wins. ... and many more which I don't know. The best bull traps are set when FOMO psychology is established. The best bear traps are set when FEAR psychology is established. These are just some of the methods the game works. I have talked about how QQQ is inside a probable bubble. One that took shape in 2020. As it turns out, Bitcoin is in no different place... Again, in a bubble that took shape in 2020. A structural shift took place at that particular date. We went from decades of QE to a new period of QT. Progressively higher yield rates change the way we invest long-term. Now, price increases are harder than before. Derivatives came to play to mitigate the effects of yield rate increases. The effect of these derivatives is very uncertain. I will attempt to explain one of the many points of view. Many believe that only now institutions are investing into crypto. The BitcoinPrice-to-BitcoinTrust ratio shown before tells a different story. A game about money is a cold blooded game. From a fundamental growth we have gone to an easy-growth. One player must deceive the other to win, the so called bluff. It is as if there is no safe haven for investors. Only the house wins? FOMO is at an all-time-high in Gold, Crude Oil and Crypto. FEAR is at an all-time-high in Equities. If we ignore the fear mongering, we conclude that equities are only now just beginning to grow. Fear is a weapon of war. @The_Unwind explained it very clearly. SPX may in fact be in the beginning of a new era. It is KST that is helping me make all of these conclusions, and I thank him for that. The following period is characterized of significantly diminished growth after many large drawdowns. If that equity growth is bearish in relative terms, how fast is a bullish growth? Crypto proved as an experiment of how fast gains can get. If derivatives were tested in crypto, what could that mean for future equity growth? Are equity derivatives deactivated and have not yet shown their true effect? The house holds the keys to profits. The house always wins. Tread lightly, for this is hollow ground. -Father Grigori
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
7
US 10Y TREASURY: pending 3.6% levelFed Chair Powell was speaking in front of the US Senate during the previous week, and confirmed what was previously said, that the Fed would most probably hit the rates for two more times till the end of this year. Market expectations are that the rates would be increased by additional 50 bps, which means two times 25 bps hikes. The 10Y US benchmark yields were moving around 3.8% at the beginning of the week, but ended the week around 3.68%. Still, Friday's trading close was at a level of 3.73%. The market continues to perceive an inverted yield curve, meaning that the rates would certainly have to go down. Charts are also perceiving some further relaxation in 10Y yields. Charts continue to point to the level of 3.6% as the next target of 10Y yields. This level might be tested in the coming week or two. On the opposite side, at this moment there is no indication that the yields might go higher from 3.8% and there is a low probability that this level might be tested for one more time in the coming week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
GOLD LONG TO $1,943📈Seems like Gold is forming a very complex, corrective structure hence why this strong move down taking out buyers. ⭕️5 Wave Impulse Move Complete. ⭕️3 Wave Correction (A,B,C) Yet Pending. ⭕️Wick Fill Complete. ⭕️Lots of Liquidity Still Sitting At $1,938. Seems like Gold is forming a very complex, corrective structure hence why this strong move down taking out buyers. ⭕️5 Wave Impulse Move Complete. ⭕️3 Wave Correction (A,B,C) Yet Pending. ⭕️Wick Fill Complete. ⭕️Lots of Liquidity Still Sitting At $1,938.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things: -Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy. -US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy. -US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception. -US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability. Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy. If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.
TVC:US10YShort
by Wiiso
2
US 10Y TREASURY: supporting 3.6%The Federal Reserve decided to halt its rate increase in June, acting exactly as the market was anticipating. However, this is not the long-awaiting Fed`s pivoting point. As per Fed Chair Powell, there would most certainly be two more rate hikes until the end of this year. This would eventually mean that the benchmark rate might go as high as 5.6% by the end of this year. So, the market was left as of the end of the previous week to digest Fed's comments and decisions during the weekend. On a positive side is that the inflation in the US is slowing down, reaching 4% in May on a yearly basis. As of the end of the previous week, the 10Y Treasuries reverted by 7 points on Friday, ending the week at level of 3.7%, after reaching 3.8% during the week. Current charts are pointing to a potential for further weakening of the 10Y yields, in which sense, the level of 3.6% might be tested for one more time in the week ahead. Still, risks to the upside in the coming period should not be overlooked.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Can You Trade The Cycle?Hi folks, We're going to talk about trade cycles today. I hope you love learning! The strongest power is knowledge! We'll be stronger together! In economics, a trade cycle is a pattern of economic activity that repeats itself over time. It is often characterized by periods of expansion, followed by periods of contraction. The trade cycle can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in government policy, technological innovation, and consumer demand. The trade cycle is also known as the business cycle or economic cycle. It is a recurring but not periodic fluctuation found in a nation's aggregate economic activity- a cycle that consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general contractions (recessions). There are a number of different types of trade cycles, each with its own characteristics. Some of the most common types of trade cycles include: Kitchin cycle : The Kitchin cycle is a 4- to 5-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Joseph Kitchin, an English economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kitchin cycle is typically characterized by a period of rising prices, followed by a period of falling prices, followed by a period of rising prices again. Juglar cycle : The Juglar cycle is a 10- to 15-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Clement Juglar, a French economist who first described it in the 19th century. The Juglar cycle is typically characterized by a period of expansion, a period of contraction, a period of recovery, and another period of expansion. Kondratiev cycle : The Kondratieff cycle is a 50- to 60-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Nikolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kondratieff cycle is typically characterized by four phases: prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery. Now, we know what cycles are in the shape of context. There is a million dollars question. Can we trade the cycles? As a trader or an investor, we definitely can trade the cycles. However, we need to learn what the cycle is, and how can it start or end. There are a number of ways that a trader can trade the cycle. Some popular methods include: 1- Using fundamental analysis . Fundamental analysis can be used to assess the underlying value of a security. This information can be used to identify potential undervalued or overvalued securities. 2- Using cycle analysis. Cycle analysis is a more specialized form of technical analysis that focuses on identifying cycles in market prices. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as to forecast future price movements. 3- Using technical analysis. Technical analysis can be used to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as trendlines and patterns. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades. It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to trading the cycle. The best approach will vary depending on the individual trader's risk tolerance, trading style, and investment goals . Final Tips: 📍 Use a stop-loss order . A stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price of a security reaches a certain level. This can help to protect your profits and limit your losses. 📍 Use a trailing stop-loss order . A trailing stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically moves with the price of a security. This can help to lock in profits and protect your gains. 📍 Be patient . Trading the cycle can be a patient game. It is important to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to trade. 📍 Don't overtrade . It is important to avoid overtrading. Overtrading can lead to losses and can also increase your risk. Bonus Chart : US10Y A task for you! Look at the bonus chart and leave your thoughts considering the correlation between US10Y and SP500 or ONS.
SP:SPXEducation
by Bullfighterr
6
US10Y - INMINENT SELL OFF US10Y - 10 YEAR BOND WEEKLY TENDENCY ANALYSIS THE 10 Year Bond Started Buying from Weekly Demand (green) Then reached Monthly Supply that generated a new/fresh weekly Supply to start reversing the price Destiny: Weekly demand (green) Stages/Weekly tendency - Stan Weistein - STAGE I: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE II: Price break consolidation and make highs above SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE III: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE IV: Price break consolidation and make lows below SMA 30 @ Weekly TF
TVC:US10YShort
by imktads
9
US 10Y yield chart - key levels to watch ahead of dataWe have a big week of data US inflation figures are released tomorrow and are likely to show a continued disinflationary trend, with the headline rate falling to 4.1%. This will help the Fed remain on pause for the Wednesday rate decision. The major level to watch to our mind is the tentative downtrend drawn from the October 2022 high. This comes in at 3.88. The market has been sidelined for months but is building a potential bullish consolidation pattern and that idea will be reinforced should a close above the 3.88 downtrend be seen.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting FOMC meeting As the FOMC meeting is approaching and more data on inflation pressures and the economy are released, the Treasury bond market is increasing its volatility. Current question which is in the spotlight is whether the Fed will hike rates by 25 bps or it will skip June and leave rate increase for July`s meeting. Current market consensus is that rates will remain at the same level during June. Although 10Y Treasuries started the week around 3.6%, the yield was soon increased to the level of 3.8%. It was sort of testing this level for one more time, if it can hold. Still, yields are ending the week around 3.7%. The week ahead might bring some volatility back to the markets, in case the Fed still increases rates, contrary market expectations. Certainly, inflation figures will be posted a day before the FOMC meeting, and any surprises on this side might also bring some volatility back. As per current charts, since 3.8% was tested, the market could easily slip back to the level of 3.6%, which might occur during the week ahead. At this moment, there is no indication that 3.8% might be breached to the upside. However, it should be noted, that a potential breach of 3.8% level to the upside, would certainly lead the market to the level of 4% yield for 10Y Treasuries.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Prepare for a long term sell.The US10Y continues to trade inside the long term Channel Down since the October 21st High and has now formed the same peak formation as then. With the 1D time frame neutral (RSI = 45.126, MACD = 58.593, MACD = -0.280), the conditions have emerged for a new long term sell. If the previous -20% decline is repeated, then target the bottom of the Channel Down on a TP = 3.100. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
7
GOLD SHORT TO 1878📉As I said before, we expect a correction on the bigger TF for Gold, before bulls come back into the market. We've seen a 5 wave bullish completion on Gold, with markets being overbought at the same time. We've also seen a CHOC + BOS, indicating markets now ready to sell off in the short term. Target 1: 1920-1877📉 Target 2: 1764-1740📉 Target 1 is our main target, before we DCA buy positions. Target 2 is a very deep retracement (bear trap) which we've only highlighted as a possibility, but not too fussed about.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
US 10Y TREASURY: anticipating 25 bps hikeDebt-ceiling saga is finally over, which means that the US will not enter into technical default, which is something that the majority of market participants anticipated. It had some minor impact on the US 10Y yields. However, old topics are currently preoccupying the market, which is the question whether the Fed will increase interest rates at June`s FOMC meeting or it might be at July`s meeting. Anyway, anticipation of a further 25 bps hike is high, so the market reacted in line with its sentiment during the previous week. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week below 3.8%. It was quite evident on the charts that 3.8% was a peaking level at this round. Lowest weekly level was 3.57% on Thursday, however, Friday`s better than expected jobs figures pushed yields back to the level of 3.7%. This comes in line with anticipations of another 25 bps hike in June/Julys FOMC sessions. As per current charts, there is some probability that markets would push yields back to the 3.8% level, however, there is no indication, neither in fundamentals, that the yields might go higher from this level. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability that 3.5% might be tested again. However, it should be noted for the future period, that potential further rate hikes by the Fed, above currently expected 25 bps, might drive 10Y yields toward the 4%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX