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US10Y

M2SL | Mo Money Mo Problems!Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to analyze. But they are very important. Since I haven't taken the time to create TradingView indicators that calculate cycles, I will instead use a spreadsheet. For the following charts, I basically take all historical data of a cyclic chart and export that data. For every week or month, I calculate the average distance from the mean. With that, I try to calculate the "expected distance" from the mean, for each time of the year. Natural Gas prices one might say, are lower during the summer months. So an unusually high price in summer may become explosive during the winter. Today's main subject will be money supply. Since the January's M2SL data hasn't yet updated, I will try to guess how much money supply we can expect the following months. There is a cousin to the M2SL index which is updated weekly, and it is WM2NS. This index however as you can see on the chart above fluctuates from M2SL throughout the year. So, the regular WM2NS price should be adjusted based on it's cycle against M2SL. This curve shows the expected yearly fluctuation of the ratio, compared to the mean, Specific care has to be taken when we calculate the "fundamental cycle duration". Some cycles last 2 months, 3 months, or 6 months. The fundamental cycle of the economy is 3 months which repeats 4 times during the year. While this may prove irrelevant, It is incredibly important in the "cycle spectrum" creation. If we consider a 1M duration of the fundamental cycle, the chart isn't as representative as the 2M one. The Diesel / Gasoline cycle is incredible. This comes to prove that these two are highly correlated. With the same method we can compare gasoline price with crude oil price. For fuel prices, it seems that the end of the year can serve as a good baseline for the outcome of the next year. Absolute and relative are at their minimum in this time of year. Similar charts can be drawn for DJI. While more chaotic (wider error lines), weeks 10 and 44 (March and October-November) appear as the weakest periods of the year. So what M2SL price can we expect in the following days? I am an impatient man, I cannot wait for the results!!! After a substantial drop in money supply, one might fear that further downside is to follow. There are charts that calm such fears. Price has never touched the Quadratic Kernel indicator (a form of historic moving-average), and it may never touch it. When RRPONTTLD increases, money supply decreases (I am oversimplifying because I don't know the exact specifics). Bullish stochastics may signal more upside for money supply. Finally, I will analyze the protagonist chart: Suddenly, the 1.2% increaase doesn't sound that extraordinary... Sometimes, a simplistic analysis like this one above, may prove correct like this one below: Final thought: With inflation higher than expected and money supply about to increase yet again, how high of an inflation can we expect? With commodities bull-flagging against money supply itself, and Bitcoin bull-flagging against the Tech-Bubble, things can get pretty bad for equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I have analyzed several cycles for different kinds of commodities. If you are interested ask me so as to post them.
FRED:WM2NS
by akikostas
9
Key short term levels to watch on the US 10Y yieldUS GDP Q1 GDP figures were released yesterday and showed a significantly slower rate of growth that expected, printing an overall figure of 1.1% Q1 growth. The problem facing investors is that economic data suggests that inflation could remain sticky and the central bank is widely expected to raise benchmark rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week. So we are taking a look at the US 10Y yield chart to identify the key levels that you need to watch short term. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
4-27-23 [us10y]hello, here is one more layer of confluence, to back up my spx case. --- to the untrained eye, this looks like total, nonsensical chop, but to a space explorer, it can easily be viewed as a 3-3-3. what is a 3-3-3? glad you ask anon: a 3-3-3, is a very corrective structure, designed to kill time mostly- labeled w-x-y. wxy = double zig-zag these channel nicely, as portrayed in the image above. --- once this double zig-zag concludes into the summer time, i predict the stock market will crash. --- enjoy it till then, and as always --- this is not financial advice, i am merely an artist, bringing to you, art.
TVC:US10Y
by notoriousbids
SPX | Spaaace!!!Spaaaaaaaaaaace! Let's make a quick party, also bring a cake to celebrate! Make it quick, because it's late and I am tired and I should be sleeping by now. We have reached the top of the world. Well, equities have. It is time for them to lose value big time. Their successor is here, bonds. I have talked about it extensively in my last idea. This is an urgent idea I wanted to post. It seems that day-by-day we might be witnessing the peak in equity price. And this idea is dedicated to the person who gave me the crazy idea to analyze something like that. The idea is simple. We all know the immense yield inversion, it is definitely ugly... What if we found a way to analyze SPX based on the yield inversion itself? That is the idea of @CryptoTaoist and I am very thankful for it. All credit and all the likes this idea gets, are dedicated to this person! Yield curve is a way to calculate money creation (normal times) and money destruction (inverted times). Green is good for money, red is bad. No wonder dollars are green but flammable! We also know that yield inversion is strictly bound to recessions. I will naively try to add these two together, equities and inversions to get an idea of when the recession is actually beginning. Me and others have posted about how the US isn't in a recession yet. This can be seen if we multiply SPX by yields. In a sense, this year we had no recession for the US economy. Please bring a real cake, not this lie... The next part is analyzing whether SPX is performing good or bad considering the current rate of money creation / destruction. In a sense, dividing SPX by the yield curve. If you calculate the yield curve as US10Y-US02Y you will have trouble analyzing it compared with SPX. Captivity of Negativity. Zero values for the denominator make a mess of the chart. You could instead opt for a bodge, to fix the denominator by adding 1. While this works, it is not harmonic enough for my liking. I will create a new yield curve, but instead of standard yields I will calculate it using modified-yields. More about the modified-yields in this idea below. The new yield curve (in blue) is following the standard yield curve (in orange). So it can be considered a satisfactory replacement. Do note that on the numerator we have modified(US10Y). On the denominator we have modified(US02Y+1). I add this +1 so as to further normalize the chart. In normal times US10Y and US02Y have a difference of ~1%. To conclude, we divide SPX with the modified yield curve and we see the following: A surprisingly smooth chart shows us what we expected, that the US isn't in a recession yet. It is also incredibly straight, from 2010-2022 and today. This means that yield curve and SPX correlate very well, if we modify them appropriately. In a sense, dividing SPX by the yield curve calculates the following: How much SPX increases as money gets destroyed? If SPX can swim against the tide (money destruction) this means that it is very strong. A strong economy can hang on even when money is destroyed. US hanging on even with that immense of money destruction, means that it was (and perhaps still is) a very strong economy, which can withstand a heavy beating. Note: DGS2 is a good replacement for US02Y if you want to analyze old historical data. Feel free to notify me of indicators that calculate even older yields of the 2 year bond. But where is the ceiling in this chart? While the 2.0 Retracement proves a significant resistance point, it is inconclusive of whether it is the terminal ceiling. One answer may lie in the following chart: (I knew the cake is a lie!!!) We have divided by M2SL and multiplied by 10^12 to bring numbers to measurable scale. A normalized chart appears, and we also observe a curious ceiling appearing. Price obsessively tries to penetrate this ceiling, just like DJI/M2SL did in 2018-2020 Are we witnessing the very last weeks of the equity bubble? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori Captivity of Negativity is a reference to Bagwell of the Prison Break TV Series.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
11
US10Y: Last dip before a medium term reboundThe US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down ever since its market peak on October 21st. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 54.601, MACD = 0.300, ADX = 17.030) giving a mixed tone to the price action but based on the December-January Lows we can see the the Channel Down has one last dip to make before it bottoms and rebounds on the medium term. We will wait for that pullback around 3.250 and buy targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 3.750). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
1
XAUUSD SHORT TO 1764📉After analysing price action, it seems that Gold is moving very choppy to the upside despite the constant surges. It indicates that these surges are a bull trap & liquidity grab, as there is a lot of imbalance & internal LQ still left around $1,860. However, we have to be careful as Gold is close to taking out its ATH at $2,075 hence why we will be leaving our invalidation level at that price. TP1: $1,860. TP2: $1764. BARE IN MIND, this here will be the FINAL CHANCE to short Gold as a mid term move. A break above $2,075 & Gold will be heading towards our long term target of $2,300 and much further beyond💰
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
1
DOW(N)? | A Dollar Milkshake ScenarioI feel bad when I am filling up your feed with my non-stop posting. There are too many charts that I want to talk about. I could post them as "updates" to my earlier ideas. But this would be confusing for me and for the reader. Therefore, here is another short chart analysis. The last few months were peculiar. DJI began diverging away from the other main indices, SPX, NDQ. A significantly strong movement of DJI the last few months brings hope to the Equity Bulls. A fast and high-reaching Bull Run. A discrepancy between indices is not necessarily hopeful. In classic Dow Theory, when different parts of the market moved differently from others, it signaled an alert that deserved attention. As a classic example, when the railroad index didn't confirm the general index growth, this could have been bad news. While the Dow Theory is replaced from more modern methods, it is fun looking back and analyzing using the most classical of methods. It certainly gives a new perspective into what we analyze today. While price discounts all, relationships matter. SPX, DJI etc don't live on their own. Their price is highly subject to the fundamentals of the economy, which are hard to calculate. The only thing we can do is take the fundamentals into equation, and make a retrospect analysis into some charts, just to get some perspective. I will now explain why I believe such a discrepancy occurred. An exotic chart follows, making some calculations on DJI. Later on you will understand what this chart means. Similarly for SPX: It appears that there is a fundamental ceiling above. And DJI just upthrusted to reach it. Fundamental ceilings like these cannot be predicted. We can see them from their effect in long-term charts. In 2022, what we lost in Equity value, we gained in Dollar strength. Therefore we calculate DXY*DJI to get some perspective of the absolute DJI price. It is sort-of the price of DJI relative to the world economy. While there are similarities to 1995 - and while anything could happen - I believe that this is a fake-out. But the future of Equities might not be like we expect them to be. The post-2020 period is a period that resembles a blow-off top. In my 1-year experience, DXY and Equities depend on the Yield Curve. We all know that, the Yield Curve has significant importance in calculating Equity performance. While short-term movement depends on the yield curve, the long-term movement depends on long-term yield rates. And this correlation between the Yield Curve and DXY makes sense. The yield curve represents the "rate money is created out of thin air". It's inverse represents the "rate money is destroyed". DXY is a measure of dollar strength. Strength of currencies depend on many factors (most of which I don't have the knowledge to analyze). One of these factors is currency scarcity coupled with interest rates. With all of that we can conclude to the following consequences of a possible dominance of the dollar. -- It is obvious that dollar dominance will lead DXY much higher. -- Money Supply is rapidly decreasing. The FED is dedicated into killing inflation. -- A correlation between DXY and the inverse of yield curve might lead to the following conclusion: A decisively high DXY needs a deep yield inversion. And perhaps we are stuck with a multi-year yield inversion. Price might get rejected upon attempting to enter the long-term formation. It will have significant trouble re-entering the money-creation-area (positive yield inversion) As for the effect in equities, things are quite complex... For the following charts, I will be replacing DXY with the yield-curve, which is the fundamental movement that affects dollar strength. Until now, Equities haven't felt the effect of the Yield Inversion. This may soon change. Price reached a significant retracement and with a sloped ceiling, bearishness is apparent. This chart is concerning for equities. It describes the absolute strength of the Equity Market. And with so significant divergences in such a big scale, it comes to show the sheer scale of the damage that might be coming in equities. And it will be real damage, damage that we haven't already felt. All of these are calculations are in relative performance. It is hard to calculate the effect in equities in absolute terms. One thing is for sure: A deepening yield inversion will keep the real equity prices higher for longer. Therefore we cannot calculate anything while we are in this upside down period. And who knows... The recession everybody expects may never come. If the yield curve is negative for years, the dollar will be making higher highs in strength. And a strong dollar isn't necessarily bad for equities. It is in the hands of corporations to keep the game going, and investors happy. In the years to come, the equity market may not be able to make new all-time highs. But this is not a lose-lose scenario for equities. Companies instead of rewarding investors with higher index prices, they can reward them with higher dividends. After all, an investment in dollar-denominated markets is like investing in dollar itself. And if you believe in the Dollar Milkshake, then everything measured in dollar is most definitely for you! The recession everyone is convinced that is coming, may never come. Capitalism has worked tremendously well for the US. QE and the Stock Market mania fed the .com bubble. Who knows, maybe QT and the Dollar mania may feed another bubble. Capitalism and money work in mysterious ways... Bubbles and Recessions come when nobody expects them to come. With so much money printed, we either created a recipe for disaster, or a recipe for the biggest bubble humanity has ever seen. Who knows what the effect might be if that money supply is put to work. And with such a significant shift in Bonds (from long-term bullish to long-term bearish), the money invested in them will eventually leave the Bond market and seek other adventures. No matter what happens, the future is scary and exciting! Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4
us10y 4-14-23gm, called the top on the us10y last year as well. (view post at the bottom of this thread). swinging by to actually adjust my public bias, after a few recent discoveries. --- jerome powell explicitly mentioned in a few of the recent talks that the fed is going to raise the interest rates above 5%, and keep them there for some time. what this tells me, is they're expecting inflation to tick back up - or they're taking the extra precautions to ensure that this indeed doesn't take place. --- what i am implying here in my count - is an extension to 5.9% (at the bare minimum). this could mark a top, unless we pull back in three waves (the same we did from the recent top). 👇
TVC:US10Y
by notoriousbids
2
dxy 4-14-23gm, i called both the bottom in 2021, and the top last year on the dxy (view posts at the bottom of this thread). very few people heard my voice - swinging by into the public communities to share this very general post today. --- dxy came down in 5 waves from my upside target, seemingly. possible w5 isn't in yet as it could see a slight extension - also possible that it is. --- once 5 waves down is indeed confirmed, a three wave retracement will take place, with force. when this retracement takes place, the markets will take a beating. nfa. --- ------ --------- PS. if the dxy see's an extension for this last leg, the bear market will get extended by 365 days. --------- ------ --- ✌
ICEUS:DX1!
by notoriousbids