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US10Y

SPX | Early AccessI have posted about this chart before, but I wanted to show it more clearly this time. Above we see SPX, the standard chart. Below we see a custom index I invented, which is VVIX/VIX. It is a neat way to make sense of the chaotic nature of VIX. To clear things out, I have hidden both charts and instead I show an indicator called WLSMA. It is tremendously helpful to smoothen the "fog" the standard chart creates. In the end I will add the link to the inventor. I took great care on drawing these trendlines. I tried to get into the mind of the investor back then, and drew the lines that best made sense, and could provide some actual meaning. On the chart, red arrows are drawn. These are the times when the VVIX/VIX chart violates decisively it's trendline. On the same dates, I created arrows on the SPX chart to get an idea of just how early this method warns us. While this method may not be useful for traders (I am not a trader, I am just passionate analyzing charts), I find it incredibly interesting on how these two correlate, and make actual sense. I find VIX by itself completely useless. Don't get triggered by what I said. How on earth is VIX = 20 a good buy-in strategy? It is as about as useful as RSI getting below 80. Again don't get triggered by it and flame comments down below. Numbers and money don't mean nothing. It is perspective and values that make sense. Now onto some charts: In 2008 we were notified from VVIX/VIX all the way back in February of 2007, and got a confirmation on April of 2007. This is not a typo, 1 year before the GFC. Curiously, this happened when FED's tightening schedule was near it's end. Also interesting is the April-September period of 2008, when the VVIX/VIX chart showed signs of hope when it broke above it's trendline. And compared to now: We can conclude similarly for the 2010-2015 period. And the 2016-2020 period. And the 2020-2023 period of course. Are we approaching this hopeful period before the crisis? A comparison between 2008 and 2023, in the period of deadly hope. Link to the inventor of the WLSMA indicator: Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
Gold long analysis to 1854 (SHORT TERM VIEW)📉Gold is currently within a corrective phase. We are seeing this correction take place in an expanded triangle, which normally tends to be complicated, as a way to trap both buyers & sellers. I'm personally not taking this buy, unless I get solid confirmations. I am just waiting for this correction to finish playing out, so our downwards move can continue. We still have sells open & running in profit for our Gold Fund investors📉
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
1
SPX | The Everything BubbleSPX vs Inflation is a chart I explained in the following idea. While this chart showed incredible golden-ratio behavior, there are some periods which stand out. The smooth dance of the ratio throughout the last 100 years, has some quirks (the red ellipses). These periods are not random, they all feature a bubble behavior. It is clear as day that in 1996 the .com bubble formed, which caused SPX to return to trend in 2003. The 2004-2008 stock market growth and the Great Financial Crisis are not apparent, since they are part of The Great 2000 Recession. They are in the middle of a long-term downwards trend. So where does this leave us? If this chart has any meaning, we are in the middle of the air, with incalculable drop for the chart in the future... One target can be pinpointed using probable fib-extensions, using retracements drawn from important highs and lows. It is 12 times lower than now, or 92% drop. It depends on how you look at it... PS. I know that charts don't go back in time. The red arrow is drawn towards the left for aesthetic reasons. Who knows how far downwards is the trend now... PS2. I invented a new name for the Head and Shoulders pattern. I call it Cerberus, the three-headed beast guarding the Underworld. Look at it in action: The tail of Cerberus is a dragon's head spewing flames, which in trading would be a bull-flag. Chart taken from SPY_Master Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
6
SPX | The cake is a lieThis is not the 2008 Recession. This is deception. This is the Recession nobody remembers. SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion. The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One of the lights that can help you see him is the SPX*US10Y chart. In the "Related Ideas" there is the link to the inventor of the chart. This is the 2020 Black Swan we all witnessed. This is the 2018 Recession that really happened. For reference, this is the modified chart from 2008. And the chart from 2022. Pattern taken from 2008 and fits like a glove. We are also in UTAD, in a long-term Wyckoff Distribution. Is it a conspiracy theory? It could be. The easiest method of manipulating the economy is with bonds. They make them and they define the base yield. So in theory and in practice, they can affect the economy any way they want. In short, they could in theory hide a recession in an ocean of money, in the era of information and QE. They are after your money. They will do anything to take them. Watch out. Who knows what trap they will set up now... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
30
US10Y Double rejection. Targeting the 1D MA200.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current level makes a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also rejected twice on its Higher Highs trend-line, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.550%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
Gold Long Analysis to 1869 (Short Term View)📈On our last Gold analysis, we said that Gold would be heading higher towards 1854 & it finally did on Friday. However, due to how bullish the weekly candle closed, it is likely that prices will head higher towards 1869-1880. This will be a good entry zone, to short market back towards 1760-1730📉 This will be the FINAL leg down, before we invest heavily into Gold buys & target NEW HIGHS. A close above 1909 will invalidate sells & we'll close our sells at 400+ PIPS profit.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
1
SPX | Did you win?Ah the beauty of Fibonacci... when after a painful recession for equities, we reach the golden ratio alive and well. The satisfaction!!! Now we can go all-in equities! Perhaps you are one of the lucky ones who bought the October bottom, then congrats to you! How much was your profit really? After all, this was a peculiar year... Yields massively increasing, equities dropping. It is like a dead end, it feels like a maze... The main chart does show a significant recession... But we have passed it! Some charts suggest that we had no recession this year... Other charts suggest the complete opposite! Note that these are my charts. I was the contradictory being... Look at what the last chart means: LQD is the investment-grade ETF. On the second chart it is compared with SPX/(modified-yields) and on the third with SPX/(modified-yields*PPIACO). The correlation is as good as it can get... This is a mess... what can we infer from all of these charts? Something fundamental can help us clear the picture. We can differentiate between 4 distinct periods of the economic cycle. A. Equities increase while yields decrease (bonds increase) This is the QE model, which followed us for many years. During this period, the only winner is the one who had only stocks in the beginning. Investing everything in the stock market is your best bet. B. Equities increase while yields increase This is the scenario when the economy is at it's best. During this period, everyone wins. Both the one who has stocks and the one who is selling/lending cash (sitting on cash) win. Any kind of investment is good in this period! C. Equities decrease while yields decrease This is the nightmare of the wealthy ones, and this period that rarely comes. It happened during the 1929, the 2000 and the 2008 recessions. During this period, you win if you have nothing invested, and without any money. Borrowing money to buy stocks is the best plan. D. Equities decrease while yields increase Sound familiar? This is 2022 in a nutshell. During this period, I hate to disappoint you, the only one who wins is the one who has a lot of money. Sitting on cash and lending it is your only option. The immense amount of money that the US printed, is now sitting in the hands of few. If you traded for profit, then you are probably at (or near) net-zero. In 2022, you won if you sat in cash. We have gone full circle, from advising into sitting in cash, to advising into selling, to buying, and back to the beginning. Finance is complex... To conclude, my head is spinning... I have no idea what all of this will lead to. It is as if we are in a lose-lose scenario. Invest in bonds? But is the US going to be able to pay them out, after decades of free money? And with so much money in circulation, how many bonds are being purchased at these "extortionate" rates? How in the world will the US be able to pay out so much? Invest in equities? They look like they will face years of stagnation. The only thing that smells lately is the smell of war, the smell of "I have nothing to lose". The only thing to gain now is resources. Commodities are bull flagging against everything. More specifically, the combination between the cost of commodities and the cost of their production added together. This makes me believe that a small increase in production cost will lead to multiplicative increase in the final product value. This is a recipe for hyperinflation. And the big profit is if you own the land the resources are produced. (Ukraine for wheat, Taiwan for silicone, etc...). Everyone is willing to fight for these lands... I am adding this chart for the picture on the left. The CEO of Bank Of America is preparing for US bankruptcy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
4
Higher Yields May Cause Bigger Correction On DXYHigher yields may cause a bigger correction on DXY, as yields can be still looking for wave 5 by Elliott wave theory. Yields higher, USD strong, stocks down. Risk-off flows may not be over just yet if yields are in fifth wave. However, when yields will make new high and then top after 5th, thats when DXY can complete B/2 rally, with a lower high, when focus will shift away from US to other CB. However, of course, wave 4 on yields can get more complex if current trendline support is broken, so wave B/2 on DXY may take more time to unfold. Grega
TVC:US10Y
by ew-forecast
1
US10Y Rejection cluster. Targeting the 1D MA200 again.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current levels and the fact that it has failed to break higher in the last five 1D candles, make it a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also on such a rejection junction, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.510%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
1
US10Y - ST Pullback in Yield Ahead? Charted is a proposed price pathway for the 10yr T Bonds. I'm looking for an easing in yield soon... in the 4.125 area (.786 Fib level) specifically, sometime in early March. This will represent the top of the b wave of wave 4 off the Aug. 2020 low. This expectation flies in the face of recently released inflation related news. As such my parameters are well defined here. A move beyond the afore mentioned yield will make me reassess the trade. I'm seeing correlated markets showing signs of synergy with the expected outcome of this move. Specifically I am expecting a move up in oil, technical ST pullback in DXY and a technical bounce in gold...which will fail and complete a fantastic short set-up. See my Gold idea...
TVC:US10Y
by oliverrathbun
2
The (4) Four Charts I am watching closely todayPull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing. DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on the daily) indicates a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar price must be calculated into current stock prices, weakening the current stock momentum. US500 - Testing that Macro Uptrend as support. A break below may indicate further downside (pending FED language following FOMC press conference). US Treasuries - Both the 10 year and the 2 year are pushing up against resistance. A break to the topside would indicate that the FED will continue its aggressive rate hikes strategy to tackle inflation. The dollar will follow with strength. The markets will depress even further. Crypto will follow. Treasuries seem to indicate that the FED will continue its aggression against inflation. We must pay attention closely to those purple lines/levels. Also to note, Bitcoin is up against its 200-week ma. I don’t see that be broken immediately without some setback prior. The Bitcoin price battle with the 200 weekly ma may be the earliest indicator we have to what might follow in the next few days/weeks. As always, be cautious. Don’t bite too hard on these last few weeks of bullish price action. Dollar-cost average yourself in. Place those stops. And best of luck to you all! Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
Keep a close eye on this breakout!Traders, Keep a close eye on this breakout on our fear index. So far, nothing significant has followed to the same level of price movement: the dollar is still under its macro-uptrend resistance, the US500 is still using its macro-uptrend for support logarithmically, and the US10yr/US2yr remains under resistance. But we want to track this closely to find out the legitimacy of this spike in fear. Confirmation can be had if one of the indicators mentioned above follows and breaks its support/resistance (see yesterday's video for more). Best, Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus