WHY EVERYTHING IS GOING DOWN? ANSWER IS HERE!Understanding the Simultaneous Decline in EVERYTHING!
1. The Influence of U.S. Treasury Yields and Interest Rates
The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield is a major benchmark in global finance. When yields rise, it signifies that bonds are becoming more attractive relative to riskier assets. Rising yields typically occur when:
Investor Demand Shifts: Investors move from risky assets (like equities or crypto) to safer, higher-yielding government bonds.
Inflation Expectations: Higher inflation expectations often lead investors to demand higher yields, which in turn increases borrowing costs.
Cause and Effect:
When Treasury yields increase, the opportunity cost of holding lower-yielding assets rises. This makes stocks, precious metals like gold, and speculative assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. Even gold, typically seen as a safe haven, can lose its charm if fixed-income assets provide competitive returns with significantly lower risk.
2. M2 Money Supply Dynamics
The M2 money supply measures the total liquidity available in the economy, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. Changes in M2 can impact asset prices in several ways:
Expanding M2: More liquidity in the market initially can boost asset prices. However, if this expansion leads to rising inflation, it may eventually trigger higher interest rates and bond yields.
Contraction or Slowing Growth in M2: A tightening in liquidity can reduce the flow of money into various asset classes. This dampens overall market sentiment and makes riskier assets less attractive.
Cause and Effect:
If M2 growth slows or contracts, there is less capital to chase after higher returns in equities and crypto. At the same time, if there is an expectation of tightening monetary policy, investors recalibrate risk expectations, which leads to a broader sell-off across multiple asset classes.
3. Investor Sentiment and Risk-Off Behavior
In periods where both Treasury yields are rising and the money supply signals less liquidity, the overall investor sentiment often shifts toward a "risk-off" stance. This means:
Safe-Haven Demand: Investors move into safe assets like government bonds, which drives up bond prices and yields while pulling money out of riskier assets such as stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies.
Correlation Effect: As riskier assets are sold off, their prices fall in tandem. Therefore, even if gold typically acts as a counterweight to stocks, in a severe risk-off environment, all asset classes might decline.
Cause and Effect:
With a risk-off sentiment dominating the market, traditional safe havens (like gold) and growth-oriented assets (stocks and crypto) can experience simultaneous declines. Rising yields encourage a rotation away from these riskier positions, which reinforces the downward trend across multiple markets.
4. Historical Context: The Trump Era and Beyond
During the Trump administration, we observed episodes where Treasury bond prices surged significantly (e.g., a 10% surge) as investors sought refuge during periods of political and economic uncertainty. Eventually, as market sentiment shifted, yields rose, and this led to higher borrowing costs. The resulting effect was a broad-based retreat in many asset classes.
Example: In those periods, as yields climbed to around 4%, investor appetite for risk diminished. The market corrected across equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies, with all asset classes experiencing pressure concurrently.
Cause and Effect:
In the current climate, if similar dynamics are at work—namely, rising yields accompanied by tightening M2 growth—then we might see a similar pattern: gold, the S&P 500, and crypto all experience declines together because investor risk appetite is sharply reduced.
Conclusion
The simultaneous decline in gold, the S&P 500, and cryptocurrencies can primarily be attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and tightening M2 money supply. As yields rise:
The relative attractiveness of low-risk government bonds improves, encouraging a shift in investment away from riskier assets.
Increased yields raise borrowing costs, which in turn dampens economic growth and investor sentiment.
Slowing liquidity (as measured by M2) further restricts the available capital chasing after higher returns.
This confluence of factors leads to a widespread "risk-off" environment where even traditional safe havens like gold may fall as the entire market adjusts to a higher interest rate and lower liquidity backdrop. Investors thus move across asset classes in a coordinated fashion, leading to declines in gold, equities, and crypto alike.
Understanding this cause-and-effect relationship is crucial for professional traders who rely on disciplined strategies. With a clear view of the broader economic signals, you can navigate these shifts with precision—helping you not only to avoid costly mistakes but also to capitalize on high-probability opportunities that emerge during these market transitions.
US10Y
US 10Y TREASURY: the Bad, the Good and TariffsAt the first look at the 10Y US benchmark chart, one might say that it looks pretty scary as of the end of last week. However, historically, it happens. Trade tariff war has started, which triggered a massive market uncertainty and a sell-off on financial markets. Naturally, the first idea in investors' perspectives for the future period is a recession on a world's scale and in the US and this was reflected in the US yields. It started at the beginning of the week, where yields from the 4,35% took the down course for the rest of the week, ending it with the 3,86% at the Fridays trading session. However, after reaching the lowest level, the yields reverted just a bit to end the week at the level of 3,99%. The strong move was also supported by Fed Chair Powell's comment that a trade war will have a negative effect on the US economy, which cannot be estimated at this moment.
The volatility of markets might continue for another week in a row. Markets will cope with estimation of countermeasures, which are slowly announced by other countries. Based on current probabilities there are equal chances that the market will test the 4,0% level, or it might move once again down, to test levels below the 4%.
US10Y: This pattern has been extremely bullish for stocks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield is heavily bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 36.788, MACD = -0.034, ADX = 32.176) and that has historically been favorable for stocks. More specifically, when the Yields have been trending down inside a Channel Up since 2010, the S&P500 was on an uptrend. Going into more detail on the US10Y RSI on the 1W timeframe, it is almost on the 34.20 trendline, which is a key level as every time it hit that (see the dashed vertical lines), the S&P500 bottomed. The exception to the rule was, needless to say the COVID crash in Feb 2020. According to this, Trump's tariffs create the perfect market opportunity for a new long term buy.
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Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930
The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies.
Protectionist Foundations and Scope
Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained".
What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration.
Specific Tariff Examples
The parallel implementation approaches are notable:
Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025
Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods
Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20%
Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922)
Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences
Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners:
China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines
Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods
The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products
Expert Opposition
Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act.
Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet...
Potential Economic Impact
The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system".
These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today.
Stock market Impact
Just watch the graph..
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Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
GOLD - 1H UPDATE
Gold dropped nicely today, in a strong impulsive move which normally indicates a reversal. We also saw price touch $3,057, but we did say price also needs to close below that level which it never done. There's 2 possible plays on its next move;
1. Price just carries on dropping lower in the next week as expected.
2. Gold starts to consolidate, creating a 'redistribution schematic' for a bigger sell off. But this could also mean Gold creating 1 more new ATH.
Dollar Index Bullish to $111.350 (UPDATE)The DXY price action from my last video analysis has been moving as we expected & following the arrow accordingly.
We’ve seen a nice dip for the Dollar, a healthy retracement to the downside which should now be followed by the next bull run back up.
Major Wave 5 (Wave Y) en-route to $111.350📈
US 10Y TREASURY: emerging inflation? Another end of the week brought not so positive news to the markets, so some higher volatility was evident. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment came as a surprise, with increased inflation expectations from US consumers. Data showed that the sentiment for this year inflation has increased to 5,0%, while a five year sentiment is at the level of 4,1%. These figures strongly impacted US equity markets, the price of gold while the 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields dropped to the level of 4,25%, from 4,4% where they were traded on Thursday.
Friday's move was the strong one, in which sense, we could expect that the market will use the start of the week ahead to digest data. There is a high possibility that yields will revert a bit, at least to test the 4,3% level for one more time. However, it should be considered that uncertainty on markets caused by trade tariffs and inflation expectations are high at the moment, which will continue to be main drivers of market sentiment in the future period. For the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data are set for a release, in which sense, volatility will most certainly continue.
US Cash Market Goes 'Flippant'. Understanding Revenge in TradingFirst of all, revenge trading is a destructive pattern of behavior in trading where individuals make impulsive and emotionally-driven decisions in an attempt to recoup previous losses. This practice is not limited to novice traders; even experienced traders can fall prey to it. The primary emotions driving revenge trading include anger, frustration, greed, fear, and shame, which cloud judgment and lead to irrational decision-making.
Causes of Revenge Trading
Emotional Response: Traders often react emotionally to significant losses, feeling compelled to immediately recover their losses without adequate analysis or strategy.
Lack of Discipline: Deviating from established trading plans and risk management principles is common in revenge trading.
Psychological Triggers: Feelings of injustice, anger, or a desire for vengeance against the market can trigger revenge trading.
Consequences of Revenge Trading
Financial Losses: Revenge trading often results in larger losses due to riskier trades and poor timing.
Emotional Burnout: The stress and frustration from repeated losses can lead to emotional exhaustion and decreased trading performance.
Career Impact: Persistent revenge trading can erode confidence and lead to a trader questioning their abilities.
Real-Life Examples of Revenge Trading
Increasing Position Size: A trader experiences a significant loss and decides to double or triple their position size in the next trade, hoping to quickly recover their losses. This action disregards risk management principles and often leads to even greater losses.
Ignoring Stop-Loss Orders: After a loss, a trader might hold onto a losing position longer than planned, hoping it will turn around. This behavior ignores established stop-loss orders and can result in further financial damage.
Chasing Trades: A trader feels compelled to enter trades without proper analysis, driven by the urge to recoup losses quickly. This impulsive behavior can lead to a series of poor trading decisions.
Market Reversal Scenario: A trader suffers a loss due to a sudden market reversal. In an attempt to recover, they enter a trade in the opposite direction without thorough analysis, which can exacerbate their losses.
Wish more examples? Watch recent one below 👇👇
How to Avoid Revenge Trading
To avoid revenge trading, traders should focus on maintaining discipline and adhering to their trading strategies. This includes:
Taking Breaks: After a loss, taking time to reassess the market and calm emotions can help prevent impulsive decisions.
Sticking to Plans: Adhering to established trading plans and risk management principles is crucial.
Emotional Awareness: Recognizing emotional triggers and taking steps to manage them can help prevent revenge trading.
In conclusion, revenge trading is a HARMFUL AND DANGEROUS practice that can lead to significant financial and emotional consequences. Understanding its causes and recognizing its signs are essential steps in avoiding this behavior and maintaining a successful trading career.
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Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
GOLD Bouncing Higher, Following 200-hour SMA Major Support Gold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching nearly $3,050, new all the history high on Thursday, March 20, 2025.
The $3,000 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever.
Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 14-15% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $3,100-$3,200 per ounce in the near term.
The main 1-hour Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to mentioned on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow.
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Best #GODL wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team
US 10yr Treasury Yields Press Against ResistanceThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just beneath the 4.34% resistance level, with price forming a tight ascending triangle just under this key level. Today’s pullback to 4.31% (-0.74%) suggests hesitation from bulls as momentum indicators turn mixed.
🔹 MACD is flat, showing a lack of directional conviction.
🔹 RSI sits at 47.94, neutral and non-committal.
🔹 Price remains sandwiched between the 50-day SMA (4.43%) and the 200-day SMA (4.22%).
A confirmed breakout above 4.34% could open the door for a run toward 4.50% or even 4.80%. Conversely, a drop below the rising trendline (~4.24%) would expose downside risk toward the 200-day SMA.
Watch for a catalyst (Fed commentary or inflation data) to break the deadlock.
-MW
US 10Y TREASURY: two rate cuts?The Fed held interest rates unchanged at their FOMC meeting during the previous week. On a positive side is that they still perceive two rate cuts during the course of this year, which would account for 0.5 percentage points further drop in US reference rates. Fed officials noted that there are arousing uncertainties related to moves from the US Administration which could impact the US economy to some extent. For the moment the forecast for the economic growth for this year was decreased by 0,4 pp to the level of 1,7%. Inflation expectations have turned to higher grounds than previously estimated.
During the first half of the week, the US 10Y Treasury benchmark reached the highest level at 4,33%, while it ended the week at 4,25%. At this point on charts, it doesn't look like the market gave up on testing the 4,30% levels, meaning that the market might modestly revert back toward the higher grounds. It should be noted that the PCE data are set for a release on Friday, next week, which increases probability of a higher volatility of US Treasury yields.
US 10Y TREASURY: FOMC weekThe US February inflation data were posted during the previous week, and with 0,2% for the month, was in line with market expectations. However, the negative effects of the US Administration related to tariffs were reflected in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which dropped in March below market estimate. What is concerning is that consumers are now expecting the inflation of 4,9% for the year, which is much higher from previous posts. It is obvious that the tariffs-on, tariffs-off game is hurting consumers’ expectations. In addition, the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, on March 19th, which might bring back some volatility across US markets.
The 10Y US benchmark started the previous week around the level of 4,15% and moved to the higher grounds through the rest of the week. The highest weekly level was 4,34% at one moment, but yields ended the week at the level of 4,31%. Some volatility could be expected at the beginning of the week ahead, and before the FOMC meeting. At current charts, there is still some space for the higher grounds, up to the level of 4,40%. Still, it should also be considered that some probability for 4,20% holds.
US10Y Strong sell signal below the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down since the October 23 2023 High. In the past 2 months it has been on a downtrend, which is the technical Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The 1D MACD is on its 2nd Bullish Cross on a decline, very similar with the previous Bearish Leg of the Channel Down. We are again on the 0.5 Fibonacci level and as long as any rebound gets rejected below or on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the long-term bearish pattern remains intact.
We expect a similar Bearish Leg of -24% overall to target 3.685%.
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Nasdaq Bank Index 2025 Edition — Let's Make Sh#t Great Again.President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies, we at @PandorraResearch Team characterize as a term "Tariff Bazooka", have significantly destabilized the Nasdaq Bank Index NASDAQ:BANK , reflecting broader financial sector vulnerabilities and investor anxiety.
These tariffs, including a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, a 20% duty on Chinese goods, and proposed reciprocal tariffs, — have triggered cascading multi effects on banking stocks through several paths.
Market Volatility and Investor Flight
The Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks major U.S. financial institutions, has been disproportionately impacted by tariff-driven uncertainty:
Sharp Equity Declines. Since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs in February 2025, the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC dropped over 10% from its December 2024 peak, erasing $1 trillion in tech-sector value. Banking stocks, sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, mirrored this downturn as investors fled equities for safer assets.
Risk-Off Sentiment. Bonds rallied as tariffs sparked fears of stagflation—a combination of stagnant growth and rising inflation—prompting a 30-basis-point drop in 10-year Treasury yields. This flight to safety squeezed bank profitability, as narrower yield curves reduce net interest margins.
Economic Contagion Mechanisms
Interest Rate Pressures.
Tariffs have raised input costs for businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve now faces a dilemma: tolerate higher inflation or hike rates to curb it. Either scenario harms banks. Elevated rates could suppress loan demand and increase default risks, while delayed rate cuts prolong financial tightening.
Trade Retaliation and Sectoral Risks.
Canada, Mexico, and China have retaliated with tariffs on $155 billion (Canada) and unspecified billions (China, Mexico) of U.S. goods. For banks, this raises exposure to sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and automotive - industries heavily reliant on cross-border trade. Loan defaults could surge if protected industries fail to offset higher costs.
Global Financial System Strain.
Trump’s tariffs risk fragmenting the rules-based trading system, undermining the stability that banks depend on for international transactions. The EU and other regions may retaliate by restricting U.S. financial services, directly impacting revenue streams for Wall Street firms.
Sector-Specific Impacts
Tech-Finance Nexus. Many Nasdaq-listed banks have significant exposure to tech firms, which face disrupted supply chains due to tariffs on Chinese components. This dual pressure — higher operational costs for clients and reduced tech-sector valuations — weakens banks’ asset quality.
Consumer Credit Risks. Tariffs on everyday goods (e.g., 25% on Mexican produce, 10% on Canadian energy) could elevate household expenses, straining consumer creditworthiness and increasing delinquency rates for retail banks.
Projected Outcomes
Economists estimate Trump’s tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2025, with a stagflationary shock amplifying equity sell-offs. For the Nasdaq Bank Index, this implies prolonged volatility, compressed earnings, and potential credit rating downgrades as macroeconomic headwinds intensify.
Technical challenge
The main technical graph of Nasdaq Bank Index NASDAQ:BANK indicates on further Bearish trend in development, since major supports (nearly 5-month flat bottom and 52-weeks SMA) have been recently broken.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Trump’s tariff strategy has acted as a destabilizing force for financial markets, with the Nasdaq Bank Index serving as a barometer for sector-wide risks. By exacerbating economic uncertainty, inflation, and trade fragmentation, these policies have eroded investor confidence and heightened systemic vulnerabilities in the banking sector.
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Best 'sh#t hits the fan' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
Its Been A Long Time Hasn't It?I see a possible horrible set up coming. But also an incredibly easy set up for the current US Administration to revert policy at a certain level.
I start to wonder if they are actually not looking at the market like they said. Its not like you need to look at the market for more than 5 minutes a day after doing a SINGLE in depth analysis on a longer time frame.
We will se what happens.
US 10Y TREASURY: a roller coasterThe roller coaster continues to be in the heart of financial markets during the previous period. The uncertainty over the trade tariffs, mixed macro data, Fed President Powell`s notes, all contributed to the strong shift in prices of assets across financial markets during the last few weeks. Previous week the 10Y US benchmark started with a lowest level of 4,10% and then moved toward the higher grounds for the rest of the week. The highest weekly level was 4,33% reached on Thursday, while the level of 4,20 was tested on several occasions.
The US NFP data for February, with 151K was lower from market estimated 170K. At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped to 4,1%, from 4,0% posted previously. In this sense, analysts are currently calculating that the next Fed's rate cut might come in June this year. In this sense, the yields of US Treasuries were adjusted. However, the uncertainties over trade tariffs and its impact on the US economy continues to be a known-unknown, which might shape the sentiment of the market also in the future period and its roller coaster moves.
US 10Y TREASURY: uncertainty demands T-bonds Geopolitics were once again in the spotlight of market sentiment during the previous week. The uncertainty over the potential future increased tensions within the geopolitical sphere, pushed the US Treasury yields further to the lower grounds. Increased demand started with uncertainty over trade tariffs and currently is affected by politics. The funds from US equity markets fled toward the US Treasury bonds. The 10Y US benchmark yields started the week around 4,45% and ended it at 4,20%.
Looking at charts, the major support line for 10Y US yields lies around the level of 4,15%. In this sense, there is space for yields to move further toward the downside. Whether this would be the case for the week ahead is uncertain. There is also probability for yields to revert a bit toward the higher grounds, but some significant move should not be expected in the week ahead. Potential level could be the 4,3%.
US 10Y TREASURY: safe-haven for uncertain growthThe US 10Y Treasury yield fell sharply during the previous week, in line with a drop on US equity markets. At the same time, the price of gold headed toward a new all time highest level, marking its sixth consecutive gaining week. Uncertainty is a word which has dominated financial markets since the establishment of the new US Administration. Spooky words like tariffs, inflation, and questionable economic growth are currently dominating investors' sentiment, in which sense, some further funds reallocations are quite possible in the coming period. After new stories regarding tariffs, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which showed the highest inflation expectations for the period of next five years, investors were seeking safe-haven assets, like Treasury bonds and gold, in order to sustain the value of their money.
The 10Y Treasury yields dropped during the week from the level of 4,56% down to 4,43%, where they are closing the week. For the week ahead, there is a possibility for a short term reversal to the upside, however, Friday brings new US PCE data, which is Fed's favourite inflation gauge. Depending on the data, some higher volatility is possible again.
RUSSELL 2000 failed breakout and consolidation We are back in this blog space after a couple of days holiday. The RUSSELL 2000 ETF AMEX:IWM failed at the same price point which it failed back in Nov 2021. It seems Price having a memory. It failed at the same price it failed in Nov 2021. After it failed from the top on 16th Dec 2024 it has recently retraced back to the 0.236 Fib retracement level @ 2237. It has been consolidating at that level and if it breaks down then the next support is @ 2167 .
Before the AMEX:IWM breaks out form this pattern it has to complete the wedge forming consolidating pattern. In my opinion the direction will be decided by the TVC:US10Y . As long as the TVC:US10Y stays below 4.5% the AMEX:IWM can consolidate here and then my break upwards as long as the bull market remains intact.
Direction of AMEX:IWM will be determined by TVC:US10Y
US 10Y TREASURY: lower on retail salesThe inflation in the US picked up above market expectations in January, however, the retail sales figures defined the market sentiment. As it has been posted, the retail sales in January suddenly dropped by -0,9%, which was much higher from the market estimate. Despite the higher inflation figures, the decrease in the retail sales provides some indication that the inflation will not significantly pick up in the coming period. This was the main indication for market participants, which brought the 10Y US treasuries down from the level of 4,65% down to 4,45% on Friday trading season. Still, yields ended the week at the level of 4,47%.
Regardless of inflation figures, at this moment trade tariffs of the US Administration represent an unknown factor for market participants. As markets are not happy with uncertainty, any news of tariffs in the coming period might trigger higher market volatility. As per current sentiment, yields have space for further easing, at least till the 4,2% level. However, fundamentals still represent the unknown factor which could temporarily revert yields to the higher grounds.