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US10Y

US10Y Inflation has peaked according to the bond yieldsThis is a critical update on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) as it has formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. This is a technically bearish formation that we typically see on market tops with a reversal following. It gets even stronger considering the fact that the Head of the formation hit (and got rejected on) the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Megaphone pattern that the market has been trading is since 2013. There is however a possibility of not dropping to a correction before one last test of the Higher Highs as it happened both on mid 2018 and the September 2013 H&S patterns. As a result, we should approach this in terms of Resistance and Support break-outs. Above the Resistance, expect one last Higher Highs test, below the Support expect a plunge towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). But why is this US10Y top formation pattern so important and what does it have to do with the Inflation Rate (red trend-line)? Well as you see within this 9 period price action, the two symbols are very correlated. In fact, every time the US10Y hit the top of its Megaphone pattern, Inflation peaked and started to follow the US10Y lower on its correction. As a result we can say that this is the first indication we've had in a long time that the raging inflation that started in May 2020, may finally be getting under control. If so, this could be the ideal time to get back into stock buying as early as possible. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
3
📊US10Y: probable fall📊 The yield on 10-year US bonds has increased by 105% since February of this year. During this time, market participants have paid special attention to the level of 2.74%, that currently acts as the main support. The current trend towards the strengthening of the US dollar would continue to put pressure on the yield on US 10-year bonds and on the economy as a whole. The spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds adds more fuel to the fire. The yield on 2-year bonds is higher than on 10-year bonds: This graph shows clear signs of a recession, which is no longer in doubt. All signs of the deepest crisis on the face. ☝️ It is necessary to remember: 🔴 In a favorable economic situation, the yield curve has a convex shape, namely, short rates are lower than long ones, that reflects the positive economic expectations of the market❗️ 🔴 Inversion - when short is higher than long - this is a signal of an impending recession, but this type usually does not last long❗️ 🔴 A flat curve indicates that the market sees hopeless stagnation, which is what we are actually seeing now❗️ Technical analysis speaks more in favor of sales than longs: the right shoulder of the "head and shoulders" reversal pattern is being formed, the base of this model is just the same at the level of 2.74% mentioned earlier. The final moment in this "sell history" is the breaking of the Moving Average down, which indicates the beginning of at least a downward correction. Prospects for downward movement are at the level of 2.39%. In any case, an alternative scenario assumes a pause in growth, but a downward correction is more likely, that may be less than the declared movement according to the main scenario. -------------------------- Thanks for support, subscribe and share your ideas here 👇 --------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by Market-Mentor
DXY and US10Y have likely topped out in the near termBased on fundamentals, 1. Recession scare may cause FED to stop hiking interest rates rapidly which has negative effect on Dollar. 2. US 10 Year Bond Yields (US10Y) have also topped out in near term.. Based on technical patterns, we see 1. Double top with negative RSI divergence. See BTCUSD idea which brought bitcoin from 69000$ to 30000$ in related idea linked below. 2. We have a bearish pennant in play now 3. High Correlation with US10Y and similar chart formation as seen below.
TVC:DXYShort
by shivam94_007
US 10-year rate. Elliott wave possibilitiesThe US 10-year yield has pulled back from 3.50% to 2.75%, which is a sizeable drop by any stretch of imagination. The Fed has clearly said its current focus is on price stability and with yesterday's employment numbers, there is still little reason to believe that fears of a so-called slowdown, or even worse - a recession, are showing up in high frequency data that the central bank is using, atleast for now (or they have the data, but because of political pressures, continue to focus on containing inflation). The vertical drop in commodities has been puzzling no doubt; in fact the descent has been so quick that most people are aligning towards the fact that Fed forward guidance of more hikes (it remains to be seen whether existing measures of tightening policy are having the desired effect) are showing signs of demand destruction. I think for the Fed to acknowledge that a recession is a bigger worry than growth (at a certain point of time in the future), they would like to see a consistently southward CPI print which shows credible signs of not being sticky on the downside. For now, I believe they are simply taking back all that they made available in terms of additional QE to pull the world economy out of the Covid led crash. Tactically, the visit to 2.75% was fleeting -- that was a key support level, so the market comfortably vaulted past 3% on employment gains that were more than expected. These moves have now resulted in the market dangling at a critical juncture which I will try to address via the three best Elliott wave counts I have conjured up (the right to be wrong is exclusively mine, and so is the right to adapt quickly to what the market might be doing regardless of what I think it should do) given the presently available evidence. All three counts start from the July 2021 lows -- the count from the 2020 crash lows of 0.34% has not been used for the sake of this analysis (which suggests the bull market in yields has much longer and higher to go) but that's a separate discussion altogether. Primary Count: Long term trend in yields higher and is very much intact, but more sideways churn is expected within a RUNNING TRIANGLE before a surge: Requirement: 2.75% must hold for this to be valid labelling Alternate count #1: Long term higher, but one dip below 2.75% is needed to meet the minimum requirements for w((4)) to end Requirement: One more dip before a larger degree 5th wave targets 3.50% and higher; 2.75% can be broken or at the least, retested Link: Alternate count # 2: More aggressive count that suggests higher immediately, longer-term higher yields play Requirement: 2.75% cannot be broken from here, not even by a tick as per the rules of the wave principle for an impulse Link: Conclusion: Regardless of which wave count is in play - we will know that as we have more information appearing from the right of the chart, the impulse up in yields is anything but done. Perhaps, inflation will remain sticky longer than the consensus view is. -- Guest Contributor at the @CMTAssociation
TVC:US10Y
by CMT_Association
12
Silver underlying support, wave count, and target of $34+Thanks for viewing, Big fan of silver as a way to gain leverage over an increasing gold price. So where to we sit currently? - After a huge (~+150%) run-up From March to mid 2020 (depending on the chart source - some charts (like this one put the local high at Feb '21) silver entered a period of mostly sideways consolidation. - The goldsilver ratio has swung dramatically, from over 120:1 in March 2020 to a low of 62.5 in Feb '21 and since then has had a mild up-trend and now sits at around 72:1. Of late, silver has performed unfavourably versus gold. - The US Fed rate (which is updated tomorrow) currently sits at 0.25% - unchanged since March '20 (investing dot com forecasts no change at that next meeting). - US monthly Inflation numbers (depending on the source) indicates inflation on the rise (fred.stlouisfed.org) Which will mean that low-yielding long-term government debt will stay neutral or below inflation and possibly move to a even greater negative real yield (Presently 1.3% US10y yield less 5% (5% taken from investing dot com) inflation is presently a -3.7% real yield)). If you take the CPI numbers (fred.stlouisfed.org) the real yield is almost exactly ZERO - not negative, but not exactly attractive (and also not protective to the holders in the eventuality of continued rising inflation) - US Federal debt (on balance sheet anyway - off balance (or "unfunded") sheet debt is around 5 times higher) rose 21% since the start of 2020. I don't think it is a controversial statement to say that this level of debt will be a significant future challenge to service unless interest rates stay depressed medium to long-term and the principal is repaid in significantly depreciated currency). Ok, there is more, but the general case for silver remains intact and the outlook for gold and silver remains medium to long-term bullish. So, what is next? I put a possible wave count for silver and some possible support levels. I especially pay attention to areas where a number of different areas of support converge; e.g. peak or trough support, fib extension / retracement levels, trend-line etc. So we seem to have one of those levels approaching with; - The 0.382 for the full 2020 move seeming to provide strong support, - Fib extensions almost perfectly hit the 1.618 before bouncing three times now, - Lower trend-line support isn't too far below current prices at around 23 (this isn't a strong trend-line as there are only two points - but the larger price trend forms a generally symmetrical triangle with around 6 points of contact), - Seemingly strong level support sits at 23.781 and is coincident with other smaller areas of support, - I don't expect we will see prices below $24. The only reason why I don't point to Elliot Wave as indicating a local bottom at the current swing low is that I see another small wave down to end the current correction. Importantly, I am starting to see some RSI bullish divergence on the 4hrly - which is also evident on the daily chart. I definitely pay attention when the RSI starts to form higher lows while the price heads lower. It's a good time to think about getting in or out - or at least scaling in / out / taking profit. At a minimum it shows a slowing in the price momentum. So, to continue my Memoirs :) I am not looking to the next Fed rate decision - unless they suddenly hike it to above 3% (which is basically impossible now if the US is ever to service is current (and fast expanding) public debt) - the long-term case for gold and silver remains in place. I posted yesterday that I can see, one of the possible future scenarios being $2140 gold in the near-term (an 18.5% rise) and silver could conservatively be expected to double that % rise which would put it around $34/oz. Best of luck everyone, and protect those funds.
TVC:SILVERLong
by flyinkiwi10
3
Apple downside indicatorsThanks for viewing, Why would anyone be bearish on a stock that has gone up over 200% in the past 18 months? I'm just watching the chart. If you look at the chart you see some concerning trends, mainly; - Volume dropping off since March 2020 as the price increases meant the stock was less and less of a bargain. - Some rather strong RSI bearish divergence - where every higher price highs are shown as lower highs on the RSI - which is at the least a sign of slowing momentum. - Dividend return having significantly weakened in 2021. - Higher inflation, which tends to drive investors to seek higher dividends or safe havens (since the US10 year isn't a safe haven anymore with an annual return of 1.44%. Given the CPI for October 2021 sits at 6.2%, that yields a *negative* 4.76% annual return that counts out treasuries as a safe haven). Apple has scope to raise its dividend as it currently only pays out around 25% of net profit as dividends - but right now the dividend is rather negative and should the price rises stall I would imagine we could start to see some strong selling pressure as investors see their unrealized gains melt away or leveraged traders / investors turn negative. When I am watching the RSI I watch for 3 peaks of lower highs that then pushes the RSI below the 70 level. Once that happens, prices tend to weaken and I would expect an RSI of sub 40 to be next for a significant retracement. I don't have a target yet but After its 2000 peak it retraced 80%+ and ~60% during the 2008-9 financial crisis, so the downside is clearly there for anyone to see. Bearish RSI divergence was also evident in 1999-2000 and 2007-8. I tend to agree with Michael Burry's general thesis that stocks that have priced in significant future growth will be hardest hit during periods of inflation. Anyway, just putting it out there. I am not an investor and not shorting. Look after those funds everyone
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by flyinkiwi10
Opportunities aboundSo the 10Y Yield (USA) has a fib time zone that places a strong move in the afternoon of the 30th of this month. I feel like it goes without saying but this is when Q2 ends and if we have another quarter with a negative GDP - thanks to the braindead president's apocalyptic ineptitude - then we will enter a recession which for those unawares is just two quarters of negative GDP growth. This is also the date when the Personal Consumption Price Index data will drop which will give us a read on inflation. This particular index is the one that the FED favors for their inflation data. Needless to say this is going to be a huge huge move. I honestly cant imagine that the PCE is going to be in any way reassuring and I cant imagine that Q2 was profitable. The majority of rate hiking initiatives end in a recession and Powell was frankly far from reassuring when he said in the FOMC meeting that a softish landing is not guaranteed. Not a soft landing isn't guaranteed. A softISH. Without sounding like somebody's English teacher here reading a shit poem, this use of language shows where Powell - with his bedroom walls smothered with portraits of Paul Volcker - is at. He is clearly thinking - and has explicitly stated - that getting inflation under control is the top priority as much as this will be at the expense of the economy and the American people's purse which to the pessimist means purposefully inducing a recession. We should couple this with the fact that atm the downtrend in the SPX has been a pretty orderly sell off and hasn't really had that black candle to hell that we get from a major capitulation which is imo inevitable and the 30th would be absolutely perfect for that capitulation event so hold onto your hats folks and open shorts. As for Bitcoin though we are at an interesting and slightly unnerving crossroads. BTC was created in the wake of the 2008 Financial Crisis and since then the economy has been relatively ok in the most part. So if BTC fails 20k and falls below, not only does it fall below the previous market high which will be unprecedented in over a decade of its existence but also it will show that its not above a recession and will put the nail in the coffin in the "store of value" and "digital gold" camp for the foreseeable future and instead BTC will have proven not to fulfil its goal of being a currency that's recession and inflation proof and it will prove that it is just a speculative asset and a fad that will fade into nonexistence and the study of economics and computer science classes decades from now (probably taught in Russian). If it wasn't for the fact that a recession is unprecedently for BTC and that one seems inevitable, then I would be very bullish on BTC rn but I just cant afford to be. I do hope however that this will actually be the spark that ignites bull run and a decoupling from the stock market. This seems like an obvious time to be accumulating gold, silver and rubles and opening big fat shorts on the SPX. But this will definitely be a big oppurtunity for those will the balls and the brains to seize it if for the bullish or the bearish (more likely the latter imo).
TVC:US10Y
by Augustus_Flavius_IV
US Spread Yield vs SPXIf the US Treasury Spread Yield between 10 Year and 2 Year turns negative, SPX will fall AFTER the spread move to positive territory. The spread is about to turn negative since the 10 year yield is about to break Resistance (from highest since Oct'18. The yield ended its Downtrend since middle of 2021. It's about to confirm Uptrend by breaking out Resistance at ~3%. Once the yield confirm the Uptrend, I believe the spread will move into negative territory hence activating a Recession alert.
TVC:US10YShort
by mmdcharts
US10Y Testing the 1D MA50 againThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been on a pull-back in the past 2 weeks and is close to testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This held last time upon contact on May 26 and constitutes the first Support. We may have a Channel Up pattern in formation and the 1D MA50 sits almost exactly on its Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line. A 1D candle close below it, could open the way for the greater and much anticipated technically correction to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is untouched since December 29 2021. That also sits currently on the Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 20 2021 Low. If the Channel Up is validated again though, there are currently higher probabilities to see the bullish trend extending back to the 3.500 Resistance and if the 3.0 Fibonacci extension on the Channel breaks, aim the 3.5 Fib ext level. Notice how well of a buy entry the 1D RSI's Higher Lows trend-line has been since July 16 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
1
XAUUSD and US10Y Comparison When we look at the correlation between Gold and US 10 Year Yields we easily can see an inverse correlation. When US10Y (Blue Line) increases Gold (Candles) decreases and vice versa. We can see these cycles in green lines. But every once in a while US10Y increases Gold only decreased till the EMA (White Lines) so we can easily say that EMA ($1811) is a big support for Gold. Since FED saying that they going to increase interest rates more and more we can say that US10Y going to increase more. So that can make pressure on Gold for few months. Even though I don't expect it to fall to $1685 support because of the descriptions of FED, we can still consider that support just in case the possibility of FED to increase interest rates more than 50 pp.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by YavuzAkbay
BTC and US10Y / A negative correlation or a leading indicator ?We' re examining a correlation between BTC and US10Y 1. taking into account negative correlation between BTC and US10Y past 2 months, IF US10Y rejects at weekly resistance with doji candle, we'll see pump in BTC. 2. Considering that US10Y has broken multi months trendline and after retest will continue it's pump and it is a leading indictor ahead 1-2 months, we'll see BTC pump as well. 3. But if US10Y continues pump and negative correlation stays between them, after retest/short term BTC pump>retest 28K and maybe 35-36K / we'll see further drop in BTC
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ergal91
US10Y making H&S topping pattern with long weekly hammer?US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a slowing economy) is still a big risk, which may take years to recover. A hard landing & aggressive rate hikes may be devastating for stocks but the economy may recover faster. More pain more gain. A topping TNX will be good for TLT bonds & growth stocks. Next supports are 3% & the H&S neck at 2.7%. A measured move for H&S may take TNX to the yellow 2% upper pivot zone, retesting the blue wedge or maybe to retest the big red downchannel from 1981. Not trading advice
TVC:US10YShort
by xtremerider8
US10Y bounced off the 2018 high and fell back to the 50MAThis is temporary until we see some serious inflation abatement. This pull back is flight from equities driven bonds catch a bid. iF THE REAL economy doesn't improve soon then the bonds only support is flight from worse outcomes. Also the fed balance sheet run off will support yields in the medium term as it constitutes a supply increase. So if inflation persists and liquidity dries up from fed tightening yields may move sideways.....and break the older channel. Go gold. I was long TBT for quite a while but that play is uncertain here.
TVC:US10Y
by Ruthenium
US 10Y Treasuries Short Term BearishCurrently watching the 10Y Treasury Yield to hit resistance and pull back. 3% should be a big resistance level for now. Short term Fibonacci target of ~2.6%. This will be bullish for equities. The recent pivot low broke structure to the left, where the low in late April was broken. This is now a bearish retracement towards the highs, and will be watching for fib levels or a double top as resistance. The bigger picture monthly chart (below) shows a big supply zone resistance at 3%. This area of supply has been hit, and a further reaction to the downside expected. Also, the yield is stretched away from the monthly 21ema, with the 21ema currently below the 200sma. The stochastic momentum index (SMI) is also on overbought zone with bearish divergence.
TVC:US10YShort
by FourC
#TNX #US10Y 10 year yield at a top?So the 10 year yield has run hard on interest rate hike expectations. However, as can be seen from the chart, the yield is currently about 93% above its 50 month moving average, the highest it has ever been...by far. Using the TD indicator one can also see that the yields are potentially topping this month. As can be seen from the Stochastic and RSI below, both are at major tops. The yields and DXY priced in a more hawkish FED the last couple of days since we got the higher than expected CPI reading on 10 June. Chances are that the FED will not be able to continue with higher interest rate hikes as this will crash the market. So, the yields and DXY might have been running based on expectations but might revert quite a bit on actual release of FED interest rate decisions tomorrow.
TVC:TNX
by chsmit