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US10Y

US10Y Aggressive correction possibleThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a short-term Channel Down on the 1D time-frame with the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) as the Resistance and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support. This is turning into a tight squeeze and whatever level breaks first, should give us the direction on the longer term. A break below the 1D MA50 can see the price correct aggressively by filling the gaps on the lower MA levels, the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and eventually the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level would be a fair target. This resembles so far the correction of April - July 2021, which bottomed below the 1D MA200. On the other hand, I expect a bullish extension if the 3.205 High breaks towards the -0.236 Fib. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
US10Y broke a historic trend-line from 1981. What's next?The US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield, broke last month above a historic Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since September 1981. This chart is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. By doing so, it also broke above the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in history as well. Even though it hasn't broken above the previous Lower High of November 2018, which is currently the Resistance, we have to consider the implications of this historic break-out. The 1M RSI has also hit a multi-year long Higher Highs trend-line and got rejected, making it a Resistance. Unless the November 2018 High breaks, we may see the 1M MA200, even the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) being tested as Supports. A break above the November 2018 High though, will basically confirm a historic change on yields, especially as the Fed has already announced plans to continue raising the interest rates aggressively in an attempt to battle the raging inflation. The green trend-line on the chart represents the Federal Funds Rate and as you see its Highs have historically matched roughly the Highs of the US10Y. Since the Rate is now still relatively low and as per the Fed's remarks, we are still early in the rate hike cycle, we can see the US10Y break much higher in an aggressive manner in the following months. So what do you think? Does this break mark a historic change on bond yields? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
5
Joe Gun2Head Trade - US 10 Year Yield topping out?Trade Idea: US 10 Year Yield topping out? Reasoning: Head and shoulders top on the hourly chart Entry Level: 2.842 Take Profit Level: 2.617 Stop Loss: 2.922 Risk/Reward: 2.81:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
TVC:US10YShort
by Signal_Centre
DXY - CPI Data Day 💣Since it is a big day for the dollar it is only right we take a look at the DXY to get a better perspective on what we can expect. I am in two minds - the daily chart would suggest we have an incomplete compression that needs to push higher to take out early sellers. BUT The four-hour charts suggests that breakout sellers have already been liquidated and that it may be time the buyers get a stop hunt. What will happen is unclear but at least we have two scenarios we can work with depending on price action. Keep this in the back of your mind during trading today and make your own judgement.
TVC:DXY
by AlkalineFX
16
Waiting for the worst...In the chart we have the SPX versus the US10Y (US 10 Year Government Bonds Yeld Rate, in the blue line). We are at a peak moment. In principle, the rate in US10Y is inverse, that is, when it goes down, more people are buying — more people leave the stock market and buy government bonds. The correlation with SPX is high in periods of extreme volatility, as shown in the circles. Frighteningly, the US10Y is close to the same levels as March/2018 and October/2018. If it drops like it did before, will we see a strong correction in global markets? Analyzing the US10Y alone: The US10Y has broken up a long bearish channel. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates an extremely stretched value, signaling a possible reversal to the downside. On the weekly chart it is in a resistance test region, similar to the periods mentioned.
SP:SPXShort
by andre_007
US10Y-US02Y Yields Are Steepening NOWAhead of incredibly important CPI data to be released tomorrow, we are seeing yields steepen in a very dramatic fashion. In comparison to each of the last 3 inversions, this one is not even close to the past. It is important to understand that when yields steepen , it systematically leads to downside in the SPX/NASDAQ. It has been the indicator of almost every recession since 1980 . Now we can't jump to conclusions just yet, we can only try to anticipate what comes next. Tomorrow key CPI data gets released which is why markets are selling off in the face of it. This data will be the reason for the next move up or down. Focusing back on the chart, we can see just how far yields have deviated from the 200MA. In comparison to the past, this is the farthest divergence on record. IF yields were to retest that 200MA, it would almost certainly lead the markets down a very dark path rather quickly. We are seeing a clear momentum gain on the RSI to match this. Now let's take a look at the previous two inversions not shown in the chart; (2000, 2008) First, take note of where the 200MA is here in comparison to now. Second, notice when yields are Steepening the SPX is falling. They have an inverse correlation. Take a look at how extended the NASDAQ is still; The same can be said about the SPX; There are very significant moves being made in the markets at this moment, and it will take absolute diligence to ensure survivability if the markets take us down a dark path ahead. For now, pay attention to the data tomorrow. If it is optimistic, we could see some short-term relief. If it is worse than anticipated, watch CLOSELY! The projected CPI tomorrow is 8.4% . That's your best case going into tomorrow (April 12th) . Use it as a measure.
TVC:US10Y
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
4
US 10Y Yield Nearing 3%I believe that watching the US10Y is a great way to gauge what's happening in the equity markets. As we've been witnessing, stock valuations are being compressed and investors are feeling the pain. I've been watching this chart for a while, and you can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is nearly at 3% and is at 4-year highs. This is something to definitely keep an eye on as we continue to see a hawkish fed. We could see a change in dynamic within the secular trend of the market if this scenario continues in this trajectory.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenitCrypto