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US10Y

USDJPY and US10Y Late last summer on Aug 5th when the Yen Carry trade unwound, the S&P 500 fell more than 5% intraday and VIX spiked to 60. This marked a localized bottom on the USDJPY daily chart with US10Y making 52 week lows the following month Sept. Since then, the US10Y has been on a relentless run to the 52-week high of 4.79%. This reminds us that under the surface there might be Yen carry trade in full swing. That means traders / investors are borrowing at low interest rate in JPY and then buying the US10Y to get the interest rate differential. This is also pushing the US Dollar index to recent ATH. There might be sharp reversals when the USDJPY carry trades unwind. Watch for key levels in US10Y and DXY. US10Y at 5% might be the turning point which will mark a failed breakout at Oct 2023 highs.
by RabishankarBiswal
Strategy Winter — Spring 2025. S&P500 Index Choking DiagonalUS markets were shacked on Friday, January 10th, after the December NFP jobs report came in much stronger than expected. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, although it remains above its 6-month simple moving average. The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023. The strong payrolls report further strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates again until at least 2025. The move in stocks and bonds is a continuation of what has been happening in recent weeks: After a period of mega-euphoric optimism, investors have begun to expect higher inflation driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies. If bond yields continue to rise, Americans will feel the brunt of it. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect just one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, down from as many as three at the end of last year. The odds of no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled to 28% on Friday morning. The dollar index TVC:DXY skyrocketed to the Moon, while the yield on 10-year U.S. sovereign bonds TVC:TNX stays well above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such turbulence for a long time, as discussed in the previously published idea “Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point” . I have to remind that the financial market had tough weeks in December 2024, but it could also face a tough year in 2025, as I noted then. The market was on track for its worst weeks in years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market internals, it was clear that the damage had been done well before the December Fed meeting – and this signal was a historical indicator of tough times ahead. Thus, Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! ended 2024 with the 3rd RED WEEK in a row, forming the Bearish Candlestick Pattern "Three Black Crows" on the weekly timeframe, which developed, remarkably, from the all-time highs of the Dow Jones index. Last week, Dow Jones Futures ended with the 6th RED WEEK in a row - and this is a rather rare event. Historical backtest analysis over the past 25 years shows that this can lead to a further (at least) 10-percent drop for the Top-30 stock club. Bulls have done a lot of work, advanced more than 2,000 points in 2023-24, for the S&P500 index. However they were unable to finalize their achievements confidently above the round 6-thousand mark by the end of 2024. By the way, the same inability in Bitcoin to finalize 2024 above the round 100,000 mark is now repeatedly throwing the market back to lower price marks, as discussed in the recently published idea. The main technical chart indicates a suffocating bearish diagonal in development for the S&P500 index, with targets for decline down to 5'250 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by PandorraResearch
US 10Y TREASURY: surprise, surpriseThe US jobs data posted during the previous week was the highest surprise for markets in the recent period. The US economy added 256K new jobs in December, which was much higher from market expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4.1%. Certainly, such developments are positive for the US, however, investors were not happy. A strong jobs market and a too strong US economy will make the Fed halt further cuts of interest rates. Some analysts already came up with their predictions that the first rate cut in 2025 might occur in September. For other analysts it is questionable whether the Fed will cut even once in 2025. Whatever these initial expectations, still the FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 28th, where more information will be available and further priced. The US 10Y benchmark yields reacted strongly to jobs data on Friday. Yields reached higher grounds, at 4,76%. At one moment, yields reached the level of 4,8%. Yields returned to the levels from April last year. Until the January FOMC meeting, it could be expected that the market will continue to test levels around the 4,8%. However, the picture will be much clearer after the inputs from Feds officials. Hopefully, there will be no more surprises.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Total 3 Crypto Market Cap and US10YIn our ‘Daily dose of Chart’ today we are looking into Crypto and US10Y rates. We are plotting Total 3 Crypto market Cap vs US 10 Y. Total 3 Crypto Market Cap which is the sum of all the total Crypto market cap except BTC and ETH. The Total 3 was in a bearish pattern throughout 2022 and 2024 when the US10Y was making a head and shoulder pattern. After completing the head and shoulder pattern, the yields fell which gave Total 3 to break out of a 2 year base. But with the recent breakout in US10Y rates, the Total 3 is suffering a short term bearish market. We see a cup and handle forming on the weekly chart for the Total 3. But my assessment is that the handle formation will not complete until the beginning of Q2 2025 on the weekly chart. We will revisit the chart in April 2025.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Short
by RabishankarBiswal
DJIA Index. Shake it. Bake it. Booty Quake It. Roll It AroundMarkets were shaked this Friday after the December employment report came in much stronger than expected. The economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.1% from 4.2% in November. The Nasdaq 100 immediately dropped by about 1%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield spiked nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, representing its highest level since October 2023. The strong payroll report further strengthened the case for no more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, at least for 2025. The moves in stocks and bonds are a continuation of what's been seen in recent weeks: Following a period of euphoric optimism, investors have started to anticipate higher inflation stemming from President Donald Trump's proposed trade and fiscal policies. If the upward move in bond yields continues, Americans will feel it in a big way. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now expect just one 25-basis point interest rate cut this year, down from expectations late last year of as many as three. The chances that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled Friday morning to 28%. Dollar index TVC:DXY rockets to the moon, while the 10-yr TVC:TNX strongly above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such a turbulence, as it's been discussed in earlier posted idea "Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point" . I remember, the financial market has had a tough weeks in last December, 2024, but it might also be in store for a tough year in 2025, as I noted those time. The market was on track for its worst weeks over years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market's internals, it was clear that damage had been inflicted well before the Fed's Wednesday meeting — and the signal is a historic indicator of tough times ahead. Dow Jones Futures has ended 6th straight RED WEEK in a row - the quite rare event. The historical back test analysis over last 25 years indicates, it could lead to further (at least) 10 percent decline for Top-30 stock club. The major technical graph indicates on a bearish trend in development, where major 200-week SMA support is nearly 35'700 points in this time.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by PandorraResearch
$TLT long to 110 on February 20, 2025Everything is on the chart. I am calling for TLT to rally from today's closing price of $86 to $110 by Thursday, February 20, 2025. The Javier Milei Argentina experiment has been a huge success for Argentina, who is buddy buddy with the J's and Elon Musk, both of whom are buddy buddy with Trump. At the time of this writing, $105 calls for 2/21/2025 are .05 each. If the target hits, they will be worth $5.0, for a total return of 10,000% (10X). On the weekly chart, you can see the 200 week SMA coincides with my level on that date as well. Feel free to share.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by FomoFutures
4
NASDAQ100 vs US10YSomething is brewing up in this ratio chart between NASDAQ100 vs US10Y. We see in our ratio chart on a daily timeframe, that the 20 Day DMA is already below the 50 DMA and 100 DMA and on the way to be below 200 DMA. The last time it did this in April 2024 it was an bullish indicator. The assessment is that the 20 DMA first goes below 200 DMA in the next couple of weeks and then the RSI flips bullish and gives us a bullish flash indicator. RSI is currently at 26. Watch until it touches 20 and then we can go for long QQQ and short US10Y.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by RabishankarBiswal
US 10Y TREASURY: expected economic outlookInvestors continue to weigh the US economic outlook for the year 2025, and adjust their positions accordingly. Although there has not been significant US macro data released during the previous week, still, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for December showed that the US manufacturing remained under pressure. Also, weekly jobs data missed the investors’ expectations. The market reacted with further decrease of the price of the US Treasuries, increasing the 10Y benchmark yield to the highest weekly level of 4,62%. Still, they have ended the week at 4,60%. In a week ahead, the US non-farm payroll data are set for a release. This might bring further volatility to the market, and a reaction in modestly higher 10Y yields. The higher volatility might continue through the month, prior to the January FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 28-29th.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: adjusting to Fed`s narrativeThe largest surprise during the Holiday week on the Western markets was a sudden move of the 10Y US benchmark yields toward the higher grounds. The 10Y yields reached the level of 4,629% after weightening the Fed`s narrative from the last FOMC meeting. The market is now anticipating a more hawkish Fed's policy in 2025. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 2025, but there is no expectation that the Fed will make any move in interest rates during this meeting. As Fed Chair Powell noted in his statement in December, the Fed will continue to look at inflation and strength of the job market, before it decides on a next rate cut. Inflation is expected to stay sticky in 2025, while the market will continue to listen closely what Fed is saying.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: only 50 bps in 2025?The Fed spoiled the market game for one more time. Although interest rates were cut by another 25 bps as expected, still the market did not like what Powell said about projections for 2025. He noted that the Fed expects persistent inflation, hence, the current projections are drop in interest rates by only 50 bps. Inflation expectations were also corrected, so now the Fed expects the PCE indicator to end next year at 2,5%, versus 2,2% previously forecasted, while its targeted 2% is expected to reach in 2027. The inevitable happened on the Treasury market - yields went strongly higher. The 10Y US benchmark yields were moved from 4,3% from the start of the week toward the highest weekly level at 4,58%. However, they eased at Friday's trading session, after better than expected US inflation data, ending the week at 4,52%. Holiday season on Western markets is coming in the week ahead. During this period of time it should not expect any stronger moves or higher corrections. In this sense, the 10Y US Treasury would most probably end this year around levels of 4,5%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin in 2024Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period. It's been two unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally. Shares have much wide, breather and better performance so far in 2024, amid trade and geopolitical tensions, high inflation and high interest rate. So... while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies. Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios. But will 2024 follow the trend? The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor . This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 SP:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia . What drives the Santa rally? Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices Will there be a Santa rally this year? Probably, Yes. September quarter capped off the best 12-months return (+36.36%) for S&P500 Index since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. interest rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas. Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes it is not. The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. The main technical graph for S&P500 Index says that we right now.. already somewhere above to 6'000 points for SPX Index, and just one step to break it out to reach the next one half-a-mile, i.e. 6'500 points by the end of the year. Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken earlier this summer. And that is all. Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2025 Year! 💖💖
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by PandorraResearch
3
100 Years of 100% ProbabilityThis Chart shows the normalized Bollinger Band Width for the US Ten Year Treasury Bond Yield. Basis = 10 Year SMA Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands = 3.0 Standard Deviations from Basis Normalized BB Width = (Upper - Lower) / Basis For the last century, 100% of the time that US Ten Year Yields extended 3 Standard Deviations above their 10 Year SMA while their normalized Bollinger Band width reached this 100 year long trend, rates experienced a sharp and meaningful correction. *** During World War II, width reached the trend line but rates remained at the 10 year average and did not extend 3 Standard Deviations above it.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
US10Y going lower as Fed has no choice but to continue cutting.More than 1 year ago (November 7 2023, see chart below), we made a bold (for the time being) call on the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y), as against the prevailing market sentiment we gave a sell signal, right after what turned out to be a top: Today we revisit this pattern, following yesterday's Rate Cut by the Fed primarily because of their statements that instead of 4, they will only proceed to 2 more cuts in 2025. We believe this to be false and expect the Fed to quickly resume the previous outlook. The chart shows that the 1M RSI Lower Highs have are consistent with the previous Bearish Reversal on the US10Y price, similar to 2006 - 2007. We are expecting to hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.100%, as the Fed's Cut Cycle will be accelerated in order to meet within 12-18 months their 2% inflation target and stabilize. For better illustration we have plotted also the U.S. Interest Rate (red trend-line), where you can clearly see that the fractal we compare to today, is right before cuts started in August 2007. Also it is a natural consequence for the US10Y to fall when rate cut cycles start, evident also in June 2019, December 2000, May 1995, May 1989 September 1984, May 1981 etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
12
US 10Y TREASURY: expecting a 25 bps cutAs the Feds December meeting is approaching, so the market nervousness is increasing. During the previous week the 10Y US benchmark reverted back toward the 4,4% level, from 4,2% traded previously. Such a move was a reflection of market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by additional 25 bps on December 18th. Also, ahead of the FOMC meeting, November inflation data was published, showing 0,4% increase in November, higher from market expectation of 0,2%. Increased volatility might be expected also during the first two days of the week ahead. The current 4,4% level for 10Y US Treasuries might be its highest level for the week. As per CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently 97% odds that the Fed will cut by 25 bps. In this sense, some relaxation in yields might be expected during the week ahead.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations. US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating. When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections. 2. Historical Patterns In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections: Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions. 2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy. 2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction. The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess. If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops: 3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator A. Reflects Cost of Capital Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise. B. Overheating Economy High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs. C. Peak Growth Phase A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds. 4. Why It May Predict Market Tops Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions. Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows. Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
SP:SPX
by ILuminosity
US10Y - Elliott Wave AnalysisNot sure if this will happen but if it does, what does it mean ? 1. Impact on the US Dollar Strengthens the Dollar: Higher yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US Dollar. Rising yields often coincide with expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which further boosts the dollar. 2. Impact on Gold Negative for Gold: Gold is a non-yielding asset, meaning it doesn’t pay interest or dividends. When bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, making it less attractive. A rising US Dollar (driven by higher yields) also makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing global demand. Inflation Hedge Caveat: If rising yields are driven by inflation concerns, gold might still see some demand as a hedge, although its gains are often capped by rising yields. 3. Impact on the Stock Market General Impact: Rising yields increase borrowing costs for companies, reducing profits and potentially slowing down growth. Investors may rotate out of riskier assets like equities into safer Treasuries as yields become more attractive. Value vs. Growth: Value Stocks (e.g., banks, industrials): These may benefit from rising yields as they’re tied to economic growth and inflation expectations. Growth Stocks (e.g., tech companies): These tend to underperform because their valuations depend on future cash flows, which are discounted more heavily as yields rise. 4. Impact on Nasdaq (Tech Stocks) Negative Impact: The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward growth and tech stocks, which are sensitive to rising yields. Higher yields increase the discount rate used to value future earnings, making high-valuation tech stocks less appealing. Example: Periods of sharply rising yields often coincide with sell-offs in the Nasdaq. 5. Impact on Emerging Markets Outflows from Emerging Markets: Rising US yields can draw capital away from emerging markets as investors seek safer and higher-yielding US assets. This can weaken emerging market currencies and lead to tighter financial conditions in those economies. 6. Broader Market Sentiment Inflation Expectations: Rising yields driven by inflation concerns can create volatility across all asset classes. Fed Policy Sensitivity: Markets may react negatively if higher yields signal faster-than-expected Fed rate hikes. Historical Context Periods of sharply rising yields (e.g., during taper tantrums or inflation scares) have often led to stronger US dollars, weaker gold prices, and volatile stock markets, with the Nasdaq typically underperforming due to its tech-heavy composition.
TVC:US10YLong
by tigo2020
2