Cyber Monday saleUp to 70% OFF

US10Y

Welcome to 2018 but way worseIt took less than a year for relative yields to do what took 5 years in the previous cycle. Last time it was gentle and made us fall asleep at the wheel. This time, it's forcefed down our throat and the economy will be dragged down by these companies who have made harmful malinvestiments for years with no recourse. Look at half the companies on the Russell with no profits, for example, and how "well" the index has done while they roll around in fresh fake money.
TVC:US10YShort
by fringe_chartist
MASSIVE gains to be had in resource producers next 10+ years!!!Here you can see the ratio of XAU (an index of 30 precious metal mining companies) to the S&P 500 compared to the yield on the US 10 year treasury (orange line). As you can see, we have been in a falling rate environment ever since Volcker jacked up rates in the early 80s and put a floor under the value of the Dollar. XAU/SPX has followed the treasury yields down with strong correlation. Currently, treasury yields have no where to go but up, and the reversal has already started as you can see by the latest action. XAU/SPX has been consolidating since it bottomed in 2015, building energy for a massive breakout that will dwarf the last precious metals bull market (2000-2011). With rate hikes around the corner, weakening economic data, and suffocating levels of global debt, I know which bucket I would rather put my money and patience in.
TVC:XAULong
by HypnoticStrix
us10y goes up btc goes down ? this is garbage lookhi all bro.. If us10y and btc are rising on the same monthly candles. The thesis that us10y goes up, btc goes down, it's garbage for me.. %100 no reverse correlation see marked candles . sometimes together btc 4 hours .. never forget my indicator auto fibonacci draws Selling in the fall below the thin line. Buying in the rises above the thin line first atack +46666 second atack 510000 stop line 41450 good luck.. fallow ,comments. like and share pls ..
by Takaro
dxy goes up btc goes down ? this is garbage lookhi all bro.. If dxy and btc are rising on the same monthly candles. The thesis that dxy goes up, btc goes down, it's garbage for me.. %100 no reverse correlation see marked candles . sometimes together btc 4 hours .. never forget my indicator auto fibonacci draws Selling in the fall below the thin line. Buying in the rises above the thin line first atack +46666 second atack 510000 stop line 41450 good luck.. fallow ,comments. like and share pls ..
by Takaro
Fed Fund Rate Vs US 10Y Vs GoldHere is an interesting comparison of the 3 charts. If the history of these charts has taught us anything, there is going to be a rise in rates on a real rate basis more so than actual rates. What is more interesting is how this real rate rise will influence gold prices. Now gold isn't bitcoin, they are the exact opposite things. One is front-loaded with energy and the other requires perpetual energy in addition to one having mass vs one having no mass. The risk-off appetite will be a big player here. I can see rebalancing to add gold to your account of 5-10% and reducing bonds to offset this is smarter now. Adding the 1-2% bitcoin position will make sense as the risk-off bottoming occurs. Gold miners will be smart soon, but not yet. Pick your miners now, Barrick, Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, FrancoNevada, Sandstorm, etc, and hit the bid when they tank along with equities. (This is a time to add additional bitcoin as well)
FRED:FEDFUNDSLong
by rwoods187
doesnt look like risk off/conservative sentiment imho (us10y)bonds have been playing along with the aggressive selling in equities so far, but that looks as if it may be about to change for the near term. if risk off/conservative sentiment were really back in force for broader markets we would see government bond yield continuing to increase as the market drops. what the ten year has been telling me for the past week is that inflows are about to return to stocks for at least a short while. will we v shaped bounce back to all time highs? its almost certain we wont but, much to the chagrin of short sellers and cash hoarders, some sort of long play may be in the cards in the following week, and i imagine bonds could be up next in line at the barber.
TVC:US10YShort
by cerealtrades
Gamestop - MOASSIdea for GME: - The MOASS is here. - There is a global shortage of both US dollars and high quality collateral for debt (10-year US Treasury bonds). Why would the dollar be rising despite the high CPI prints? It's simple. To borrow, one must have collateral. - CS's Zoltan Pozsar explained in Nov. 19th Global Money Dispatch that currently, this demand is caused by Europe. "the ECB bough too much , reducing net supply via QE, and it topped it up with TLTROs... This week, the collateral shortage in Europe spilled over into the FX swap market: on Tuesday it became cheaper for a euro deposit holder to pay a premium and swap euros for dollars and buy Treasury bills with those dollars than to buy German bills." - While I won't go into it, it is speculated that Citadel has a great short exposure to 10-year US Treasury bonds, through their repo market arm, Palafox. May or may not be true, but it is evident that someone (probably every hedge fund) is short USTs and they are also short GME. GME by extension is a bond market volatility proxy. As long as the correlations hold, it can be traded. - What is also true is that Large and Small speculators are record short 10 Year T Note futures, while commercials are record long. Bond market volatility is reached a level where VIX was trading at 50+ previously and is higher now than what it spiked to during GME's first squeeze to 500. Somebody is about to get to get blown up. Bond Market Options Volatility (MOVE) leads GME by 15 days. Timing of MOASS, Dec.3: GME losing correlation with IWM and gaining correlation with VIX and USTs (new regime): You might get one more smash down (I expect a smash in bonds in a risk parity event before a squeeze), but I am confident this is about to happen. I'm not even going to give a price target, but it's over 4 digits for certain. When I did analysis for my AMC trade, I correctly read the psychology of the large market participants, after reading into it more and connecting the dots, turns out they were BlackRock and Citadel: If you are short GME, do you even know who is on the other side of your trade? Retail "apes"? No no no! BlackRock, who manages the US assets of foreign sovereigns, and ICBC China, with a 100% correlation to GME. China is about to enter an easing phase: GLHF - DPT Causation always produces a correlation. Liquidity takes time to flow through the economic machine.
NYSE:GMELong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
10
One of the Most Important Charts You Will Ever SeeThe bond market often has an inverse relationship with the stock market since it is considered a 'risk off' asset. Bonds generally yield more interest for longer maturities. For example, a bond investor in a healthy economy would expect a greater yield for a 10 year treasury compared to a shorter duration. However, the yield curve can 'invert' (shorter term bond actually pays greater interest) when bond traders believe a recession is imminent. Since the Fed's reaction to a recession is to drop short-term rates to 0% and recessions cause 'risk on' assets like stocks to drop, the smart money will rotate from higher risk stocks (like tech, since it's future cash flows are highly sensitive to the cost of capital) and hide out in bonds to weather the storm and minimize downside risk. Yield inversion info: www.investopedia.com This chart shows the interest spread between 10 and 2 year treasuries in blue. Shaded vertical boxes show where the yield curve inverted in the past. The S&P is in red (at least I think it's red. I am color blind). Note how the shaded boxes start just prior to the dot.com peak, the GFC peak, and even the Covid recession. Currently the interest spread is heading back towards zero as the Fed is set to hike short-term rates to combat inflation, likely beginning in March. At it's current drop rate, the spread will invert in ~Q4 of this year, which means a recession is on the table for the first half of 2023. Keep checking back for updates as I will be watching this one VERY closely.
TVC:US10YShort
by HypnoticStrix
2
US10Y approaching a structured topThe US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has been trading within a Channel Up since the early August low. The price is currently way above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and after a strong rally it is now within a structured Channel Up. The pattern resembles the October structured Channel Up, which led to a top and pull-back back below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Assuming this stands again, we should be expecting a top by the end of next week. In any case, if the 1.695 Support breaks earlier, the target would be the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10Y
by TradingShot
2