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US10Y

IMPACT OF US 10 Y YIELDS ON MAJOR US INDEXESWe always here on the financial media of the inverse correlation between US 10 Year yields and the major stock indexes. Understanding this correlation may give you insight as to how to deal with a rising rate environment. In Tradeview, you can easily compare each index with the 10 Year Yield (US10Y) to view how they correlate. For simpicity I have done this only with NDQ which is the index that has the strongest degree of inverse correlation. It would be a good excercise to do this with SPX, DJI, IWM and FDM (Microcap). The results may suprise you in that there is no where near as much correlation in those other indexes and FDM seems to have the least correlation. There are many inputs to price action. Interest rates are just one. So for maximum impact, I limited the period of time I looked back to mid-May 2021 when we were apparently saw light at the end of the COVID tunnel (for the first time). This is also a bit after many Americans received their third economic impact payments which is about the time interest rates started moving. This chart shows: 1. It takes a large changes in interest rates to significantly impact the NDQ index 2. There appears to be a delay of 3-4 weeks on these changes on the direction of the NDQ index. Perhaps you can use these pivots to predict future price action on the index? 3. The latest steep rise in rates has only recently impacted NDQ which is in the final stages of forming a head and shoulders top. If we continue to see bearish action this week, the neckline may be broken and even retested within the next 10 days. Last year IWM dramatically underperformed the other US indexes which is unusual in a good year. Normally small caps lead such advances. The big suprise is that the micro-cap indes, FDM outperformed all other US indexes and seems to be pretty unaffected by these interest rate changes. Even after a massive rally in 2021, most of FDM's top holdings have a very low but positive PE and are still trading at or below fair value. At the time of publication of this idea, all major US indexes were down 1.7% (SPX) - 2.5% (Russell 2000). FDM is down 1.62%.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by LLOYDMOSS
Real interests at historical low - S&P500/M2SL at big resistanceHi folks! I just tried to take a broader perspective on things again, and wanted to take a look at the pricing of the S&P500 relative to the M2 Money Supply, as well as the effect of real interest rates on markets. Note that the orange line here is the negative of the real interest rates - that is, . My takes are these: (1) The S&P500 relative to the M2 (broad -i.e. including credit) money supply is at a critical level given historical data - only once have this level of resistance broken (during the dotcom bubble). (2) The real interest rate have NEVER been this negative - with current rates even beating those of the 70´s and 80´s. (3) (Not shown in chart) The treasury have been falling constantly since the 80´s, and have nowhere to go to the downside ATM. (4) The critical support of the S&P500/M2SL lies approximately at the break-even for real interest rates if we compare their development from the 60. I strongly believe that the real interest will move towards zero eventually - either the Fed and the governments manage to curb inflation rather quickly through credit regulations, taxes and interest rate hikes, or the markets will just ignore it in the end and dump their bonds (no one will hold bonds at a certain loss of 5.6% or more in annual terms - that is madness!). When this occurs, the stock market will take a huge dump - even compared to the M2 money supply (which will most likely decrease in the time to come!). DYOR. NFA. I wish you all well!
SP:SPX
by TheDots
Big weekly bearish div => Big drop (historically)Hi folks! Enough said already - just stay out: - S&P500 has just once been more expensive in terms of most metrics (Schiller PE, P/S, Relative to Money supply etc.) - Real interests (inflation - treasury yields) have NEVER been as negative as they are now - contributing to huge inequality in society => Fed will have to act, and most likely a lot faster than the market suspects - Remember that real interest rates are actually lower now than before Volcker bumped interests to 10%! The only potential upside to this market lies in even more speculation, and that is not a place you want to be imo. As I am a trader and do not have the patience to stay away, I just trade the VIX these days, but I do not recommend this (unless you know how it is calculated and you have a reasonable risk management strategy). DYOR. NFA. I Wish you all well :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheDots
8
DXY SHORT ANALYSIS TO $82.50 (DAILY TF)This here is my short analysis for the Dollar Index all the way back down to $82.50. This here is the overall bigger direction on the Daily timeframe. My Monthly TF analysis (Posted on my TradingView profile) has led me to believe the Dollar Index will take another dive down, in order to complete the corrective structure in accordance to the Elliot Wave Theory. So far we've seen a completion of the impulse move (Wave 1, 2 & 3) followed by a bearish wave down in 2017 which broke the bullish structure. This move down would be considered Wave A of the correction, WAVE B is also now complete the upside, so now we are expecting one final wave (Wave C) to complete the overall Elliot Wave Theory move. This predicted move is likely to play out over the next few years. All my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
TVC:DXYShort
by BA_Investments
DXY SHORT ANALYSIS TO $82.50 (MONTHLY TF)This here is my short analysis for the Dollar Index all the way back down to $82.50. This here is the overall bigger direction on the Monthly timeframe. My analysis has led me to believe the Dollar Index will take another dive down, in order to complete the corrective structure in accordance to the Elliot Wave Theory. So far we've seen a completion of the impulse move (Wave 1, 2 & 3) followed by a bearish wave down in 2017 which broke the bullish structure. This move down would be considered Wave A of the correction, WAVE B is also now complete the upside, so now we are expecting one final wave (Wave C) to complete the overall Elliot Wave Theory move. This predicted move is likely to play out over the next few years. I will also post the smaller Timeframe analysis on my page so let me know what you think of them! All my socials are listed on my TradingView profile. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself & my Account Management investors.
TVC:DXYShort
by BA_Investments
TNX - Deep CrabThese harmonic patterns have been a real hit or miss for me. However I couldn't help, but notice that the fibs alligned so nicely. The "potential reversal zone" is the 1.618 XA project @ 2.519. The BC projections of 2.24 and 2.618 (both in grey) were used to define the range of that zone. The AB=CD projection was also include of the 1.272 and 1.618. 1.272 is an alternate target 1.618 because I like the symmetry with the 2.618 BC projection at 2.254. Despite labeled with a "potential reversal zone", keep in mind the momentum on this sucker. The 30,40, and 50 week MA look like they are ready to flip bullish in the coming weeks if this thing gains some ground. Not financial advice by any means. I just thought it'd be fun to share. Best of luck! harmonictrader.com
TVC:TNX
by BigDGoesHard
SPX since 1980s & 10Y Bonds. "Manual Guide" Technical analysis !Simple manual guide to better understand the relations, if there is any, between SPX & US10Y BONDS This is combing our four last studies into one comprehensive idea to try and figure out the patterns in both instruments. Thanks for your understanding if i missed one here or there or made some mistakes here and there. *** THE KEY FOR THE WHOLE STUDY IS : Daily Golden Cross (75% success) + Weekly kissing/cross (75% success rate) 200weekly MA = 75 % success rate we will get a pullback or a correction*** ---------------------------------------------- Starting with closest,2009-2021, crashes of SPX & US10Y BONDS price at that moment. (Idea included) 2.3xx 2.5xx 2.9xx 3.4xx 3.7xx All the above #s happened during the while the rate was actually going down, in our case today the rate is going up from most extremes low. Will it continue to go up/down is beyond my knowledge/experience. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ General perspective: ------------------------------ 1/ Using weekly Crosses on the US10Y have a 50-50 chance, not sensitive to the volatility of 10Y Bond. Therefore, do not come close to it :-). 2/ Since 1980 , past 41 years, we have 8 Golden & Death Crosses on the daily. 3/ Since 1980, past 41 years, there is 75 % chance to get a 20% correction or more while we are under the daily Golden Cross. 4/Since 1980, there is a 25% chance to get a 20% correction or while we are under the daily Death Cross. 5/Since 1980,past 41 years, not surprisingly we have the largest single percentage gain from a reasonable bottom before a 20% correction or more "244% up " to be exact as it is the case for all indictors since March's low all are our of the ordinary readings. 6/ as of today, we are under the "GoldenCross" = 75 % correction. 7/ we have 4 possible dats plotted on the chart for such event to take place , one of them we are already in !!! Next one is April 1, 2021. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data for Kissing/Crossing 200Weekly MA: 2017-2019? One year nothing then 11%/20% 2015-2016 : 14% 2015-9 months sideways then 12% 2015 xxxx nothing 2013-2014 Long bull move. 9% pullback. 2011- 8% 2011- 7% 2010- 17% 2005-2007 : xxx long Bull move the crash 05-6% 05- 7% 04- 8% 1999-13%/10%/13% then crash 1997- 10% the bull move. 1996-8% Choppy Market then bull move 1994-9% then big bullish market ( 1 Year choppy market) 20% 11% 7% 7% 8% 36% 14 % ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: 24 signals Kissing or Crossing 200W MA. 18 signals we went down @ kissing/crossing or Kissing/crossing happened a during pullbacks/correction 6 signals months-Year nothing happened then crash crossing down. 75% success rate we will get a pullback/correction kissing/crossing 200w MA. 25% we will continue a Bullish till crossing down then crash - 2 Years after crossing then crash 2007 -2015 cross up/down = Nothing happen to SPX !!! ------------------------------------------------------------------- Since the 80s every time we get a spike in US10Y Bonds SPX got a correction with a minimum of 20% and maximum of 57 % the question is where & when. Therefore, looking back to all the data available on Tradingview since 80s to 2021 we have measure the spike's percentage of 20% and more and the distance from the Golden Crosses & Death Crosses and showed the crash percentage as results of that. Surprisingly the weekly Golden Cross are 50-50 chance not the normal with indicators so the results are shown not plotted for the weekly. As for the daily all the work is plotted on the chart for your reference. Feel free to print, share, redistribute and publish this study for the benefit of any one out there. How to read the table below, just follow the steps: 1. Fist percentage is the gain of US10Y from the last reasonable low. 2. Second percentage is the % of the actual crashes. 3. The distance between the Gold Cross & the peak of the crash it self. 4. G.C = Golden Cross. D.C Death Cross 244 % up So far- ???? so far 144% up -20%- 305D G.C 59 % up -20%-70D G.C 70% up -57%- 20D D.C 64 % up -50%- 363D G.C (-24% Down) -22% -357D D.C xxx. 18% up -20%-78D G.C 28% up -36%- 130D G.C 43% up- -27%- 53D G.C 3 G. Crosses Vs 4 D. Crosses "Irrelevant weekly" 6 G. Crosses Vs 2 D. Crosses " 75% G. Cross " --------------------------------------------- Ideas:
SP:SPX
by samitrading
6
Bitcoin and Simple EconomicsThere are plenty of Bitcoin charts which were scaled, dashed with lines in order to justify desired result, a dream of $100K price level. Well, bad news. It won't. Before starting our review, if you are able to read simple graphics, please meet VIX: Volatility Index. Here you can see the opposite dance circles of VIX and BTC. As volatility decreases at stock exchanges, seas getting calmer, chances of a high wave (earning) is less, Bitcoin is a great instrument to jump in. 2022 is the "inflation" year. FED is on his toes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 1.75% on Thursday, as the rate spike in the new year resumed with investors assessing the FED’s faster-than-expected policy tightening. Increasing yields means less demand. Economically translated, investors are not searching for a safe zone or under panic of anything, including Omicron. So what is the good bet now? Stocks! Until Dec 2021, a positive relation is visible between US10 yields and bitcoin. At the very end of year we saw a switch (Highlighted area with rectangle) I expect BTC prices to cross down $30.000 level and VIX tor each 22.00 within 45 days. At that point, if FED makes first move before March, now it was time to jump in to the BTC since both EU and ASIA stocks will sell off as FED calls back green bucks to the motherland and offer safer solutions. DXY must be followed closely as it shows slower but steady pace towards 100 ground zero limit.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MrCihan
BITCOIN Will it follow the US10Y rise?Following the big reception and positive comments on my most recent Bitcoin correlation analysis (with the U.S. Dollar Index and the S&P500), as shown below, I've decided to make another one, this time with the United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (U.S.10Y). Keep up showing me your interest on such ideas with your likes and comments, and I will make sure that more will follow. So on this 1D chart, Bitcoin is displayed in orange and the US10Y in blue. As shown, the have a positive correlation ever since the March 2020 COVID led global asset melt-down. What is very interested to me in particular is the fact that on some occasions, BTC lagged behind as when the US10Y started rising, it didn't follow immediately with a rise of its own, but did so a few days later. This indicates that the US10Y may be at times a leading indicator to BTCUSD. At the moment, the US10Y has been on a strong rebound every since the December 30 low. Could this mean that Bitcoin is lagging behind and will soon follow with a rebound of its own? This is quite similar to say the least with the previous BTC market low on September 21 2021. As you see the US10Y took off while BTC was forming a Support base and started rallying after September 29. Do you think we are in a similar situation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
8
US 10 YEARS - W1 - DARK CLOUD COVER !We are going to look at the weekly and daily time frames. WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a "Dark Cloud Cover" pattern (bearish !) with its weekly closing level below the Tenkan-Sen and the cluster (Kijun-Sen & MBB) and also already within the weekly clouds support area. RSI below 50, @ 47'98 This Dark Cloud Cover pattern neutralized the previous white candle (harami), I mentioned as a first warning signal in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) and therefore the door is reopen to the downside towards former low of 1.34% first and then probably lower. DAILY (D1) Currently in an ongoing downtrend channel since the failure to upside breakout the clouds on a daily closing basis (Nov 29th). Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen, the MBB and the Tenkan-Sen. RSI below 50 @ 42.44 The daily picture does not look very encouraging for the upcoming trading sessions and it is likely to see further downside towards 1.34% first and then towards the bottom line of the ongoing downtrend channel. 38.2% Fib ret @ 1.22%, 50% @ 1.05% and 61.8% @ 0.88% In order to neutralise this ongoing (yield) downside pressure the US 10 Years should recover at least above 1.50 % - 1.55 % Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
USDCAD Tactical SHORTEntering into a tactical short position on USDCAD. This is a pure position play, medium to long term I am bullish the USD, however I believe CAD is in oversold territory. USD is on a rip right now due to Powell pivot which the USD should be supported by US yield vs bond differentials. CAD positioning is in oversold territory ever since the last Bank of Canada rate meeting. There is an event risk in the upcoming BoC meeting but I would rather enter now and re-enter if I do get stopped out. Technical perspective - two cup and handle patterns finished, one on the left between April - July and another between Aug - Dec (orange fractal) and in between both was a head and shoulder pattern (in purple). Speculating that a another potential head and shoulder pattern will form again where I am entering on the left shoulder drop + a bearish Engulfing candle + a close below the 5 EMA. US10/CA10Y bond differentials are supporting a lower USDCAD paired with an oversold Oil primed to return to the 80s level. OIL vs USDCAD US10Y vs CA10Y Backwardation Oil contracts support CAD strength
Short
by StephenCAPM
XAUUSD (Gold) Daily Analysis : Bull or Bear ?Examining the gold's chart ( XAUUSD ) in daily timeframes, we see that the price is in a trading range after the break of the uptrend and is fluctuating in the same range. We see that the price has rebounded (pullback) to the broken level. We have to see if the price will succeed in breaking its next dynamic support with the start of the new trading week or not . Exiting the price below or above this range could determine the possible future trend of the Gold ( XAUUSD ) . The bearish targets will be $1760 and $1726 and $ 1707 respectively . Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 12.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading