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US10Y

XAUUSD 12H : 03.DEC.2021 : Bull or Bear ? (NFP)NFP Trading ?? Bull or Bear ? What do you Think ? The price is currently held by the support level of $ 1770, but has lost its dynamic support and has completed its pullback to that level. If the level of 1770 breaks, our Sell position trigger will be activated. The targets will be $ 1760, $ 1747 and $ 1727, respectively. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 03.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
US 10's mins 2's for Dec 2nd, 2021The yield differential between two-year and ten-year US Treasury notes, known as the 2s10s spread, has reached its highest level since November 2015. The 2s10s spread, which describes the slope of the yield curve, receives a lot of attention from market analysts and has arguably been a strong indication of economic mood and expectations. Historically, a steep yield curve indicates that investors are pricing in robust economic growth. When the 10-year yield is higher, investors do not purchase Treasuries, signaling that inflation expectations are high. It would also imply that investors anticipate the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States setting a higher benchmark interest rate than the existing one. In contrast, a flat yield curve indicates that long-term inflation expectations are modest. As a result, slowing economic activity and outperformance of fixed income assets are predictable outcomes. A yield curve inverted by 2 x 10 s implies the risk of a recession. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve, which happens 6–24 months before the economy falls to the point of technical recession, has forecasted every recession since 1955. The 10-year rate has risen sharply, breaking through a barrier level that had been in place since March 2020, fueling the steepening in 2:10. The rising 10-year rate, which is frequently used as a proxy for the risk-free rate in net present value calculations, has weighed on risk assets while driving the dollar higher as investors flock to risk-free 1.6 percent US Treasury notes. The US dollar index, DXY, has already broken through many resistance levels and is approaching its 200-day moving average of $92.9. DXY may be destined for a fall since the price has surged two standard deviations over its 21-day mean. The SPX has given up all of its gains from February and is now looking for support. According to the daily chart, the current spread on the 2s10s yield curve is close to 1.37 percent (2-year yield is 0.16 percent and the 10-year is 1.53 percent ). Since October 2020 , the pair has been heading upward. Prices have found support largely between the 8-day and 21-day EMAs, with a few dips to the 34-day support level, suggesting a strong rising trend. Furthermore, prices have been testing and smashing the upper Bollinger Band resistance level on a regular basis. Technical indications suggest a continuation of the 2s10s yield curve's upward trend, with the chance of consolidation before a rise higher. We predict the USD will climb if the positive trend continues, placing pressure on risk assets like gold.
TVC:US10Y
by TayFx
Black Swan - Risk Parity EventIdea for Bonds: - US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune. - Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes. - Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use leverage to meet a 5.5 trillion dollar liability gap. I'm betting they will not succeed. In the context of everything, more likely it is a dark pool trade and people are running for the exits. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US05Y
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
Reversal weekend incoming!Good news for all of you crypto heads! The reversal is coming sooner than later. Why? Because we see a massive spike in shorts which means a massive spike in market maker longs (opposite side of the contract), coming from an ALL TIME LOW and hitting the breakout target from the falling channel / wedge. Furthermore, we have US10Y dropping massively along with the DXY, gold isn't doing well either. So there's nowhere to hide for hedge funds / stock traders than staying in their inflation hedge position; which is the S&P500 or the Nasdaq. If that wasn't good news already, the BTC / ETH options have expired resulting in billions of profit for the market maker; for your reminder; my max pain price was 54K and guess where we ended up? Of course we could have one last wick to the downside with 52,5K and 50K acting as good support. This could be favorable for the very short term to push the bears for more shorts and thus the market maker for more longs. However, I do think the end of the dump is in sight, market is massively oversold and I expect mr. weekend market maker to have some bullish fun this weekend. The weekend market maker is usually cowboy style with big pump and dump behavior, lets go for a pump! I am DCA'ing buys on bullish alts at the moment. Deploying 50-70% of my cahs and leaving some on the side for an extra dump. The market will come back in balance, liken it always does. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSLong
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
1
US10Y Close to a major bearish move towards July's lowsI haven't updated my 10Y Bond Yield outlook in almost a month, ever since calling the top and the potential of a bearish reversal: The top successfully took place and the rejection gave way to the reversal on which the price has been trading until now. The similarities with the March - May formation remain and have even become stronger. As you see there is a Triangle pattern on both which in June it broke aggressively to the down side turning the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into its Resistance until late August. Right now the 1D MA50 is supporting. If the price breaks below it and gets rejected there (turning it into a Resistance) on the first test, then I expect the US10Y to targe the 1.125 Support. Until then, we are trading sideways within the Triangle. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
2
DXY, working into a wedgeMarkets will be hanging on the lips of the Fed on Wednesday and I expect another weak NFP's report on Friday. The DXY can go either way from here but I'm keeping an eye on the US 10 year yield. If it fails to hold its current channel I'll be getting my dollar shorts ready before another set of weak NFP's data on Friday. A failed break above 94.440 will see the DXY fall back onto the 50-day MA of 93.360. Looking further into November we could see the DXY moving lower towards the 200-day MA at 91.960 if the Fed's supposed taper falls through the roof. Technically however the RSI still has room to climb before the dollar enters overbought territory, along with the golden cross, which is dollar positive.
TVC:DXYShort
by GustavFourie96
3
More USDollar strength? #DXY + Fundamental driversHello traders! I expect more upside for the dollar both technically and fundamentally. Fundamental Bias: Weak Bullish Primary Driver: 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED Rationale: More hawkish than expected sums up the Sep meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for a November tapering announcement as long as the economy develops as expected with their criteria for substantial further progress close to being met. The biggest hawkish tilt was the announcement about a faster pace of tapering, with Chair Powell saying there is broad agreement that tapering can be concluded by mid- 2022. Inflation projections were hawkish, with the Fed projecting Core PCE above their 2% until 2024. On labour, Chair Powell said he thought the substantial further progress threshold for employment was ‘all but met’ and explained that it won’t take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering as just a ‘decent’ print will do. The 2022 Dots stayed very close to the June median, but the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). It is important here to note though that even though the path was steeper, if one compares that to a projected Core PCE >2% for 2022 to 2024, the rate path does not exactly scream fear when it comes to inflation. All in all, it was a hawkish meeting. Interestingly, it took markets about three days to realize this as the expected price action only really took hold of markets a few days later. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, so market’s initial reactions were surprising. However, with the recent breakout in both US yields and the USD, this has given us more confidence in moving our fundamental outlook for the Dollar from Neutral to Weak Bullish. Primary Driver: 2. Real Yields Rationale: With a Q4 taper start and mid-2022 taper conclusion on the card, we think further downside in real yields will be a struggle and the probability are skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and policy, and higher real yields should be supportive for the USD in the med-term. Primary Driver: 3. The global risk outlook Rationale: One supporting factor for the USD from June was the onset of downside surprises in global growth. However, recent Covid-19 case data from ourworldindata.org has shown a sharp deceleration in new cases globally. Using past occurrences as a template, the reduction in cases is likely to lead to less restrictive measures, which is likely to lead to a strong bounce in economic activity. Thus, even though we have shifted our bias to weak bullish in the med-term, the fall in cases and increased likelihood of a bounce in economic activity could mean downside for the USD from a short to intermediate time horizon (remember a re-acceleration in growth and potentially inflation = reflation) Primary Driver: 4. Economic Data Rationale: Economic data will be very light in the incoming week with the main highlights being PCE and Advanced GDP (old news). Also keep in mind that the Fed has largely reduced the impact of economic data going into the November FOMC meeting by already acknowledged a Nov taper and a possible mid-2022 conclusion. So, even though data will be important, it’s unlikely to sway the Fed from their tapering plans. Primary Driver: 5. CFTC Analysis Rationale: Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +872 with a net non-commercial position of +35934. Positioning isn’t anywhere near stress levels for the USD, but the speed of the build-up in large specular positioning measures over 2-standard deviation on a 1-year look back period. Thus, even though the med-term bias remains unchanged, it does mean the USD could be sensitive to mean reversion risks while still trading close to YTD highs. Thus, reflationary data and overall risk sentiment will be a key focus for the USD in the week ahead. Have a great week! Vitez
TVC:DXYLong
by Vitezabraham
US10Y Signs of a bearish reversal.The US10Y has reached (and so far got rejected on) the 1.707 Resistance (1), which last time rejected the price on May 13. With the 1D RSI on a Bearish Divergence (is on Lower Highs while the actual price is on Higher Highs), similarities can be made with the February 25 - March 30 sequence, which after an RSI Bearish Divergence got rejected on the 1.775 Resistance (2) and essentially started the correction towards the 1.125 Support. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level and if broken the 0.618 level which may be even more likely as it is the top of the recent High Volatility Cluster. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4
My Forecasts: PostscriptLet me say this from the outset; within the 2's5's curve is a manual, given that I do not have a great deal of time, it is not possible for me to go into great dimensions or detail I have chosen. Instead we will have to content ourselves with the revolutionary charts/diagrams both before and of the period where I have gone into more details. The same is true of the other important charts (VIX and Unemployment Claims) I refer to below. So now that we are all prepared and understand the knowledge, we must start to turn the dusty pages. Firstly lets review a chart on which I stack tremendous value: I would not wish to enter into conspiracies. There have been a handful of inversions in the manuscripts over the past three decades which all speak historical truth in advance of the crisis. The advance in the 5 year suggests salvation from the Fed can only come in the medium term as the 2 year lags behind. And now to the point around Alpha Protocol Seeking Immediate Extraction . The 2's5's is already under the nature in an impulsive form. The prior three inversions (Housing and Credit, Dot com, GFC) also suffered from a lagging Fed, that of being at least 10-12 months behind! This means that it is not uninteresting to highlight the totally overlooked inversion in 2019, it was a loud SOS signal that the economy was clearly running out of steam. I was the one who was able to properly understand that manoeuvre in both Unemployment Claims and Vix ahead of time, calling the move from 12 to 85; with complex inversions, always look to play against the crowd. See our opening in US Claims and VIX before the fact: Given we are facing both inflation via contractions in globalisation and deflation via advancements in technology etc all at the same time, it is causing a major paradox/dissonance across the board. It would serve no purpose to mention or not hint at what will happen next; my personal sense is that because the Fed ALWAYS lags behind, we will see another example of the long end of the curve driving the flows ( for those interested in bull steepening and bear flattening I have also omitted the exclamations in bold ). This would suggest that it is likely that we could be heading into an environment where you see nominal yields receiving a booster shot while real yields flatten causing further pressure on USD.
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
8