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US10Y

ridethepig | Gold, Yields and ResistanceFirst, and as usual, lets start with the traditional recap... The following position has been reached and is coming around only AFTER Buyers have finished their move: respectively, the swing up into 1970/2000, which interlocked with profit taking and the Covid unwind, demanded an attack from sellers by means of switching sides. A flawless swing with a competitive salary. When most thought the sky is the limit, we kept our cool and started to switch sides with some counterplea. As usual, you do not do all of the work charting, modelling, finding areas of value to unload etc just to walk away.... you also need to be ready to attack in the other direction, otherwise energy is wasted. For those wanting to track the charts and examples they can be found here: Thus we had the "mysterious" profit taking and unwind, the manoeuvre from sellers has been very fluid and is creating the most pleasing ABC effect when you look through the weekly. Of course, this leg is already well underway, so for those looking to make use of the momentum from sellers then we need to look for fresh areas which can be quite fair value, we shall rather call semi-cheap because the leg is more than active. The 1775 previous support has become resistance for our opponent (and if we are able to test, then we know buyers are "wasting their time" there). Such a move should be faded, never play without being aware that you are sacrificing a certain effectiveness by not selling the steel resistance at the top of the range but we are preventing our opponent and rendering them with more difficulty. If we recognise that any attempt of a breakup from out opponent is not a genuine one (i.e it does not lead to the freeing of the structure) then it would be highly uneconomical to not add offers to the basket. Failing that, a break below the 1725 lows will trigger a waterfall into the 'C' target located at 1520. In the above title, I mentioned Yields, the reason this is abundantly clear. Since this is very characteristic when bond bears take control, we clear the initial 1.45 target, now 1.55 is in the crosshairs with 1.62 above, and higher yields will continue to weight heavily on Gold prices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ridethepig
10
Stocks - SPX 1M Outlook - Trouble AheadBrief for SPX: - Weakness in price due to Quad Witching ahead of FOMC. Controversy in taper announcement as ECB has done. - Technical weakness in price, as it has fallen out of a rising wedge and as of yet, failed to make a quick recovery to ATHs as usual. Price closed in a DCF, indicating weakness in the dominant cycle. - Fears of real estate market collapse in China, with global implications (there are US counterparties involved). However, it has yet proven to be anything more than an isolated event. Cyclicality: - SPX facing headwinds of seasonal decline. - Expecting DCL in early October, a bit of a rally to a DCH and choppy markets in mid-late October, then a greater selloff into the end of October in the seasonal trough, where an ICL may be made into an end of year rally. Macro Layer: - Inflation expectations continue to decline globally: fred.stlouisfed.org - Yield curve continues to flatten, despite real rates getting a slight reprieve. - Dollar and gold showing risk-off. Debt Ceiling: (Opinion) - Interestingly, October Treasury Note Futures trading at a slight discount to September, or December. This indicates that there is some risk-off on the notes regarding the debt ceiling, but nobody expects the debt ceiling to not be raised. The US government had shut down for 35 days at the end of 2018 due to debt ceiling disagreements, so I think this is a legitimate concern and could be (a largely perception-based) catalyst for a sizable pullback. - If we take a look at 2018's correction, it began with the Sept Quad witching as well. A very similar setup to now, which is of concern: - 3700 is an area of Demand which would correspond to such a pullback, while 4290-4400 is the mid-year Pivot Range which should be watched closely. Treasury Note Futures: Key Points: - Seasonality. - Debt ceiling decision approaching, media is still buzzing about Evergrande but the narrative to form around our trade should be Evergrande > FOMC > Debt ceiling > Then perhaps the US-China Trade Deal for the EOM October ICL. Strategies: - Unilateral: Bearish/short until proven otherwise. - Intraday: Volatility expected, look for bullish reversal signs. GLHF - DPT
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
US10Y hit the 0.618 Fib. Pull-back to 1W MA50?The US10Y has been trading within a Channel Up until it marginally broke its Higher Highs trend-line yesterday. This happens to be exactly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and today we we seeing a rejection. Technically the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting for months, with the most recent bounce provided on the September 15th low. We are expecting a pull-back towards the 1W MA50 again. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Vergnes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
DXY up a bit ~94.5 and down! Vs inv $SILVER; kiss & dump togethrInverse SIlver already at top of the rectangle and ready to scream once DXY meets her there! First they kiss, then they go down together. 2.5y down channel in ?W-reversal, but is oblique, but maybe, vs a rectangle/box consolidation Now in bearish rising expanding wedge heading for a corner junction with the channel Then... ? up or down? Up or down?? DOWN! I'm betting this will line up with the planed end of the SPX / NDX slide, and the US GUV will PUSH rates and the DXY down to support it and enable the blow-off top move
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn13172879
1
US10Y is about to break up and so is Bitcoin.Bonds and crypto movements are known to be highly correlated. In fact, some like to refer to cryptos as digital bonds. Here I have compared US10Y (candles) with BTCUSD (rescaled and white line) on the daily chart. Do I need to say anything extra? The US10Y is about to have a MA50 and MA100 golden cross and the MACD line has recently turned positive. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that such an upward breakout will happen soon. Another reason I am super bullish on Bitcoin and crypto as a whole is the China news of declaring cryptocurrency trading illegal! Such a huge event only caused a minor 5% drop that is in the process of recovering.
TVC:US10YLong
by rgolshan
3
EURUSD 1D : 25.Sep.2021 (Update)As we can see, the price has already reacted well to its static support and we have to see how far it can grow, if the price can break its dynamic resistance we can expect the formation of the W pattern and for the first target up to the range of 1.19 Experience growth. This analysis will fail if the price loses static support (1.165). FX:EURUSD ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @Ar_M_An_4 📅 25.Sep.2021 ⚠️(DYOR)
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
4