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US10Y

Credit - US10Y to DeclineIdea for US10Y: - US10Y will decline - institutional fear > buy safe bonds. - Positive correlation in yields/equities right now (extreme periods) - Markets are topped, this will cause a decline in equities. - UST signaling deflationary shock. Yes, you will have inflation win out in the end, but you can have deflationary shock to get Fed to enact more extreme monetary policies. You can have negative growth during price inflation. Reminder that major crashes are preceded by capitulation in yields: GLHF - DPT
TVC:US10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
US10Y Medium-term sellThe US10Y has confirmed the shift from bullish to long-term bearish as last week it broke below the Higher Lows Zone that has been holding since the August 07, 2020 bottom. The bounce however on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the left chart) is something to keep an eye on, but for the moment that is viewed as a Lower Lows rebound within a Channel Down (right chart). The last Lower Highs were made at or close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line on the right chart). Since the 4H RSI has just entered its Resistance Zone, it may be a good time to start selling the US10Y. The target is 1.1600, above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (as seen on the left chart). Most recent US10Y idea: ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Ether2020 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
US Futures Slip After CPI Explodes 5.4% YoYUS Futures are trading marginally lower on Tuesday morning with the Dow down -0.16% to 34,821, the S&P down -0.21% to 4,369, the Russell down -0.37% to 2,268 and the Nasdaq down -0.4% to 14,865 as of 8:50AM. We saw June CPI come in extremely hot moments ago at 0.9% vs the 0.5% expected, while Core CPI also came in at 0.9% vs the 0.5% expected. We're talking YoY CPI of 5.4%, folks. Ouch! Good luck with the transitory narratve now DJ Powell. PepsiCo beat earnings estimates this morning and is up around 1.6% in pre-market trade, while JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs also released strong earnings which showed a slip in FICC and trading desk revenue for JP Morgan (but a beat on earnings), while Goldman reported their "second best quarter in history," according to ZeroHedge. The US10Y yield is down around -0.75% to 1.35%, and is falling fast after the hot CPI print as investors flee into USTs. The Dollar caught a strong bid - we're up around 0.25% and sitting at 92.47. Gold is trading relatively flat - we're up 0.6% to 1,807.4, while WTI rose 0.18% to 74.27. Vix is holding on to a 16 handle for dear life after a light rebound yesterday after Friday's massacre. Finally, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is down around -1.80% to 32,522, and looking incredibly bearish as we approach 30k support. This is playing out like a dead cat bounce which looks poised to resolve itself in the very near future. I may be a buyer of Bitcoin at the 20k level, depending on the state of the equity market, and of course, the policy outlook. Today should be a doozy after this morning's insane CPI print. Let's see how things shake up. Cheers, Michael. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
US10Y - Strategy WeeklyA couple of things to note here as the chart clearly shows the attempt of a break on the log-chart. We now know Sellers are attempting the strategical and important pin on their opponent. It is clear the inflation trade is deteriorating, and in the most profound sense looks rather like a deeper mission that is underway. On the technical side, the next levels in play with a break on the chart here are at 1.00% and 0.50%. The next charts is clearer as to what we were tracking, firstly the US10Y has completed the full retrace back towards 1.5%/1.75%, and secondly, a lot of unwinding has begun in Commodities and Cyclicals as Oil retreats from the key 75 resistance. With a break in the log-chart, these larger areas of the chart are now rendered useful for freer manoeuvring and can trigger a sharp uptick in volatility for those who are becoming quite rigid. We need to keep an eye on the state of affairs in inflation and wages in particular, although when looking at the headings cooking for the US via fiscal tightening and etc, it looks like the inflation trade as a lot further to unwind yet.
TVC:US10YShort
by ridethepig
2
US Futures Tank on Thursday, Vix Spikes 25%US Futures are tanking on Thursday after a rough overnight session saw the S&P fall back toward it's 21EMA around 4,269. As of 9AM the S&P is down -1.3% to 4,294, the Dow is down -1.3% to 34,124, the Nasdaq is down -1.32% to 14,607, and the Russell is down -1.85% to 2,207. The Russell is down around -4.28% on the week, and has lost critical MA supports, potentially leading to further downside toward the 200DMA around 2,053 as early as tomorrow. The Vix is up around 25% and is back at a 20 handle as we approach the open. Considering we're down less than -2% on the majors today, and we're seeing this type of bid for risk protection, things could get nuclear for Vix if we get a decent multi-percentage point correction today/tomorrow. The US10Y yield is puking again as inflation fears subside - we're down just over -2% and sitting at 1.29%. The Dollar (DXY) retreated -0.34% to 92.38 after another test of the wedge yesterday. With stocks puking, we should see a bid for cash today. Bitcoin is down just under -4% and sitting back at a 32k handle. We're approaching the 30k support once again in what is shaping up like a dead cat bounce. The next logical target if 30k goes, is 20k. I know the Bitcoin perma bulls hate this prediction, but like all risk assets, when the tap stops, the party is over. Gold is seeing a nice bid here, though, we're up around 0.78% on the day, and sitting at 1,815.9. Lastly, we saw jobless claims this morning come in at 373k vs the 350k expected, while continuing claims fell to 3.339MM vs the prior print of 3.48MM. Funny how when the pandemic claims end, the jobless claims fall... Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
US Futures Drift Sideways Near ATH'sUS Futures are trading sideways on Tuesday morning - we're sitting near the ATH's, and showing no signs of letting up. The bears have vanished again at the opportune time for bulls, setting us up for further upside this week off the back of nothing but relentless and persistent fiat debasement by central banks, along with the corporate buy-back ponzi. We're entering Q2 earnings season, and so we'll have ample opportunity to dissect the performance of the broader market, to better understand where the flows ended up over the past quarter, and how market breadth is shaping up at the end of this secular expansionary cycle. As of 9AM the S&P was trading flat at 4,342.50, the Dow was down -0.6% to 34,655, the Nasdaq was up 0.20% to 14,743.50, and the Russell was up 0.16% to 2,305.70. The Dollar (DXY) slipped back to 92.30, while Gold recaptured an 1,800 handle (1,813.20), sitting up around 1.68% in pre-market trade. WTI rallied around 0.86% to 75.81, and Vix recaptured a 15 handle (15.80), after hitting a low of 14.25 on Friday. According to ZeroHedge, we've seen 7 consecutive days of new ATH's on the S&P, and considering we're seeing data that is not conducive of maintaining loose monetary policy, the Fed is boxed into a corner. Imo this entire rally since the March 2020 lows has been a complete fraud. If you look at the "rebound" with M1 in mind, we haven't rebounded at all. What has seemingly happened is a secret and aggressive devaluation of fiat across the G20, so the working class is none the wiser. Let's see what happens next... Our live Analysis begins at 9:30AM. * Iam/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
EURUSD Poised to Test 200DMA After 50DMA RejectionUS Markets are experiencing a technical bounce on Monday after last weeks Bullard spook/Fed hawkishness on Wednesday. EURUSD looks poised to test the 50DMA as early as today, but according to polarity principle, we should see a rejection if we do, and a continuation of the recent downtrend (toward the 200DMA around 1.157). At the same time, I expect the 50DMA on the S&P to hold up as resistance - inplying a risk off move into the close. Let's see what happens next...
Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
US Futures Rebound on Monday Ahead of White House MeetingUS Futures are rebounding modestly on Monday morning after last weeks sell off - the S&P is rallying around 0.50% to test the 50DMA around 4,176.58 (likely as resistance), the Dow is seeing support at the 100DMA at 33,011 and is up around 0.71% on the day, the Russell is retesting the 50DMA around 2,250, and the Nasdaq is floating somewhere in orbit around 14,072 and is up around 0.25% on the day as of 9AM. Bitcoin is getting clobbered to start the week, and is down a whopping 9.4% on the day. We're sitting at a 32k handle and looking incredibly bearish with the recent lows around 30k likely to be tested in short order. If we lose 30k support, we really don't have much holding us up above 20k, so hold on to your hats if markets turn down again today. According to Bloomberg, several financial markets representatives will be visiting the White House today to discuss the state of the economy after last weeks light bout of volatility. Clearly both the policy makers and government alike are panicing, but trying to calm markets as best they can. The Fed has very few options at this point, and so, it's likely this meeting bears no fruit once someone explains to Biden how inflation, and the Fed's policies actually work against 90% of Americans. The Vix is down around 2% and is sitting at 20.27, while the US10Y yield rose by 2.22% back to 1.475%. Gold is seeing solid flows today and is back at 1,779.30 and up 0.58%, and finally the dollar (DXY) is back at 92.07 and looking resilient after last weeks incredible rally back to the wedge resistance at 92. It should be an interesting day of trade to say the least, so stay tuned as our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hedge_Of_The_World
Gold bulls' revenge will be sweetHi guys, Crazy week in the precious metals market and the FED crashed the whole market into oblivion. Luckily we were on the right side this time as a bearish correction was more than likely, however I did not expect a move below 1800. We closed the week a couple dollars below the 61.8 fibo support line at 1768, so this is concerning (it might just be a SL-hunt to confuse gold bulls), but technically this opens up the gates for further potential downside. Silver remains supported by the 61.8 fibo support level and the D200 SMA, so there is still a big possibility of a bullish comeback. Also indicators are highly oversold, so a correction is more than likely. Since the FED did not do anything but was 'talking to talk about tapering' and projected 2 'possible' interest hikes in 2023 (so 18 months from now, read again), Powell ridiculising his own dotplot during the press conference, I find this move highly over-exaggerated. In any case, bearish parabolic moves know parabolic bullish corrections (and vice-versa). From a technical & fundamental point of view, gold & silver are a 100% buying opportunity eyes shut with crazy upside potential. As mentioned in my previous update, the facts on the ground remain the same. The FED is still buying $120 billion worth of bonds EVERY month, the money printer is still going crazy and inflation is projected to hit 4% by many analysts in the near term. Not to mention US10 Yields have crashed below 1.5% post-FED. It's a fallacy to think this is transitory inflation, it's more likely here to stay for years to come. A big risk for the precious metals specifically and commodities in general is that inflation in the market can turn into deflation. Once central banks will stop the moneyprinter to fight the high inflation, there is shortage of money supply and prices crash at a very fast rate creating deflation. But we're still far from it, as the accomoditive monetary policy is still here. I am expecting a strong bullish reaction in the coming weeks, but it is important to time the entry. We have several risks luring, Basel 3 implimentation next week being the biggest one. An equity sell-off being the other, with DJI & SPY closing extremely bearish this week below the bullish trendline for the first time since March 2020. The Nasdaq closed the week as an evening star candle, which is a potential bearish reversal signal. Important to know is that strong equity sell-offs are bullish for gold & silver first (repositioning of money) but turns bearish later if the sell-off persists as investors flock to cash (March 2020 case). Price Action that I am looking at is bearish de-acceleration on the H4 timeframe and strong & engulfing bullish H4 candles. After such a huge move, we should see price range for a weeky or two (if not longer). It took the gold bears 2 weeks of ranging before they made the big move down. Bulls recapturing the 1800 handle on a daily timeframe is extremely important to regain the confidence and that would be a strong buy signal for me. For now I am keeping my eyes on the 1750-1755 zone as a potential platform for the rocket to 2000+. In case 1750 breaks, we are looking at the 3rd test of the bullish trendline and I expect price to break it this time towards the 1600-1610 demand zone. Below that we have the 1550-1555 zone as the next major support. A long read this time, but there is so much going on I couldn't make it shorter. 😁👌🏻 Love and hugs, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
6
US10Y Strong rejection on the 1D MA50. Long-term bearish sign?A perfect Channel Down has been formed for the US10Y on the 1D time-frame. The 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 have already been broken. The 1D MA150 (yellow trend-line) is exactly within the Higher Lows Zone from the very bottom of August 2020. Will the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) get tested right on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level? ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> mused_Aurorah --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
4