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US10Y

Head and Shouders on US10Y DAILY - neckline brokenA head and shoulders formed on the US10Y Daily chart and the neckline was broken. US10Y is now heading lower which should provide as a push higher for Precious Metals, notably #XAUUSD and #XAGUSD. If US10Y and break 1.52 watch out for a strong push higher both of the Metals. DXY looks weak and has tried to rally repeatedly only to be rejected lower every time. If the DXY joins the US10Y and US30Y lower , then Gold and Silver will begin higher and look to break to new levels. $1930, $1965 and pierce through $2000 and then run to a new ATH whereas $30 is the level needed to forge higher, eventually to $42 with overshoots even to $50, before a pullback and consolidation, The next level will be $70 towards the back end of the year or higher. I think there is a distinct possibility SILVER will overshoot and run past $70 and then consolidate as it hs been suppressed for much longer and has built up a sizeable head of steam. LOOK TO JUMP ON THE SILVER MINERS BANDWAGON.
TVC:US10YLong
by TheBathymetry
Futures Flat, Investors Brace for Thursday's Inflation DataUS Futures traded relatively flat on Monday morning with the S&P up 0.01% to 4,228.75 (sitting just below the ATH), the Dow up 0.14% to 34,790, the Nasdaq down 0.10% to 13,753, and the Russell down 0.01% to 2,286.40 as of 8AM. The US10Y yield fell back to 1.58%, while the dollar (DXY) traded flat at 90.12. We saw another mini flash crash in Vix this morning (similar to June 1st) around 7AM, which saw Vix test a low of 15.78 before quickly bouncing back to 16.66. Over the weekend we saw the G7 come to an agreement on a 15% minimum corporate tax rate, which is expected to be rolled out to the G20 soon. Enforcement of the accord is another story, of course. Yesterday Yellen said she isn't concerned about higher inflation or higher rates in the near future, adding that they're "good for the Fed and US society." Clearly she doesn't understand how the market works and what will happen to asset valuations when the cost of debt rises; don't forget - Yellen was the one who said just a few years ago in 2017 that she doesn't think we'll see another financial crisis in our lifetimes. Needless to say, I don't place too much emphasis on anything she, or Powell for that matter, says. Later on today around 3PM we'll get the consumer credit report for April, which is expected to fall from the prior print of $25.8B to $22B. But, the main event this week is going to be the US consumer price report on Thursday, which based on the recent spike in used car prices, could reveal a shockingly high print, causing panic over the possibility of hyperinflation/stagflation as early as this year. The Fed, of course, will come out and say it's transitory as rapidly and as many times as possible following the print. That we can be certain of, as they're nothing more than a PR firm for Wall Street imo. Lastly, Bitcoin bulls are cheering on El Salvador President, Nayib Bukele, for advocating for Bitcoin this weekend in Miami at the largest Bitcoin conference to date, as a legal form of tender for the country. However, according to Goldman, 35% of Hedge Funds (25 CIO's from various hedge funds) see Bitcoin as their "least favorite" investment, while Growth was the "most favorite." Bank of America's global fund manager survey revealed that "long Bitcoin" was the most crowded trade on Wall Street (no surprise there). We're currently sitting at $36,651 and up around 2.35% on the day. I see us potentially retesting the 200DMA in the near term, before a continuation of the downtrend toward $20k.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Futures Sink as Russia's SWF Ditches the DollarGlobal futures are experiencing some weakness this morning after yesterday's rollercoaster ride saw us rise persistently in the morning session, only to be hammered from noon until around 2PM, to then be panic bid into the close once again. The Dow is trading down -0.51% to 34,412, the S&P is down -0.62% to 4,180.38, the Nasdaq is down -0.88% to 13,553, and the Russell is down -0.81% to 2,278.25. Headlines are circling the financial media this morning after Russia released a statement that they'll be cutting the dollar from their sovereign wealth fund, replacing it with other core SDR fiats (Euro, Yuan), as well as gold. Vix is seeing a notable bid off the week's low's and is back at 18.8 resistance and up just under 12% on the day. We need to recapture the 21 level for another potential test of the descending trendline around 28. The Dollar (DXY) has recaptured 90 support, and is currently sitting at 90.24 as of 9AM. Clearly we're seeing liquidation across asset classes. But, the dollar gains never stick for long these days. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is up over 4% on the day and sitting just under 40,000, while Gold is off the recent high's and trading back at 1,881. No major moves in the bond market to speak of as the US10Y yield drifts sideways at 1.60%. As far as memes go, AMC is tanking back to a 59 handle after hitting a high of 72.62 yesterday. Holy shit, we closed up 95% on the day. I've never seen anything like it. The company is a hollow zombie with too much debt on the books. Cinemas are closed, and who knows what their future revenue will look like. But, that doesn't stop the army of retail traders who are throwing every dollar they can at the highest beta stocks they can find. GME had a nice breakout of the triangle a couple weeks ago, and is up 27% on the week. We could be looking at a similar scenario to AMC unfolding, which potentially provides an opportunity to short these pieces of garbage back to unch at the first sign of a shift in sentiment. Economic Data: Finally, Jobless claims came in at 385k vs the 395k expected, and continuing claims rose to 3.771MM vs the 3.642MM expected. The ADP employment change rose by 978k vs the 675k expected, however the real headline here is that over 15 Million American's are still on some form of government employment benefits. We'll see the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May at 10AM, and Crude Inventories at 11AM. Our live anaysis begins at 9:30AM. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2
Black Swan - The End of a Force-Fed Credit CycleIdea for US10Y, Credit Cycle, and Equities: The Bottom Line: - There is no monetary inflation, because the money created does not enter the economy... however there is credit inflation because credit is created with that money as collateral. - There is PRICE inflation, ASSET inflation, CREDIT inflation, NO monetary inflation, oil deflation. - When credit can no longer inflate, credit inflators will begin to sell assets so that they can redeem their asset appreciation for money to redeem for the debt they have lent or borrowed. Where is the money that was injected into the economy? Where did it come from? Who loses here? YOU! The money created from high salaries caused by the speculative asset bubble, and the middle class who invest their hard-earned dollars into the asset bubble, creating more jobs and easy money, which is in turn invested back into the bubble for effortless paper wealth... The inflated prices you pay for food, education, housing, health care... When credit inflators decide to redeem their asset appreciation. It all returns to ashes. - During the collapse of a credit bubble, governments will sell off bonds in a frenzy, because there is too much supply. GLHF - DPT Allies — the strongest and truest in the world: underlying conditions - Jesse Livermore
TVC:US10YLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
9
QE, Buy-Backs, BTFD, and Fed Rhetoric Save MarketsHey guys, I hope everyone had a nice relaxing weekend. After a freakish drift higher on the US majors yesterday toward the ATH's, and off the back of a week straight of buy-backs, QE, and dip buying, the SPY is back at the lower band of the ascending green channel (resistance) around 420. Of course, we can't not mention the FED members parading around every day, spreading more transitory-inflation rhetoric to boost sentiment and cool yields. On SPY, we recently saw 2 tests of the 50DMA, first on May 12th, and then again on May 19th. But, we saw strong support, just as we have in the recent past. I expect a rejection at this level, similar to the rejection we saw on May 14th at outside channel resistance. We have initial downside to the 21EMA at 414.25, and then, of course, a retest of the 50DMA is likely this week around 408.50. On the Nasdaq (QQQ), we're sitting at 334 pre market as of 9AM, and likely to retest the high from Feb 16th around 338 before getting a rejection. The momentum is to the upside as the 21EMA, 50DMA, and 100DMA has been recaptured. The Russell (IWM) is sitting just at the 21EMA around 221, with the 50DMA just above us at 222.34, and the 100DMA just below around 219, and the Dow (DIA) is sitting at the top of it's recent range, and within a couple percentage points of the ATH. Gold has been levitating just above the 200DMA after the recent dollar puke, and spike in bonds, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) recovered slightly to a 37k handle after the insane 54% crash that we all knew was coming. WTI (USOIL) is sitting around 66 and showing resilience as FED burns the dollar back to an 89 handle. The Vix is sitting at 18.2 after retesting the descending trendline we broke through on May 11th. We hit a low of 16.9 this morning around 7AM, but are poised to recapture the white ascending trendline around 18.6, with 18.8 resistance back in play. Finally, the US10Y yield is being sold off as the FED down plays inflation as transitory, and although the cup and handle formation is still potentially going to materialize, based on previous tests of long term resistance, it may be several weeks before we see a breakout. I just want to say thanks again for everyone's patience last week as I took some time off, it was a rough week. My cat Franco was in and out of the vet, and had his final surgery which went well, thankfully. Then my dog Pompey died. When it rains it pours I guess, but he was 18 years old, and had a great life, so I'm finally smiling now when I think of him instead of crying. Time to get back on track. :) Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9
Jobless Claims Fall, PPI Crushes ExpectationsUS Futures traded mostly sideways in the overnight session, with the S&P briefly testing a low of 4,029.38, before recapturing the 50DMA. We're currently sitting just above the 50DMa around 4,072.38 as of 9AM. We saw jobless claims come in at 473k vs the 510k expected, while continuing claims came in at 3.655MM. Don't be fooled by these numbers though, we're still seeing over 16MM Americans on some form of income benefits, and a significant portion of labour costs are being subsidized by the government. How long this can last with inflation soaring, is anyone's guess. PPI came in hot at 0.6% in April vs the 0.3% expected, while Core PPI rose 0.7% vs the 0.4% expected. YoY, PPI rose a whopping 6.2%, much higher than the 5.8% expected, and the highest YoY rise ever. The US10Y yield cooled slightly after yesterday's high of 1.705%, and is sitting just below cup and handle resistance at 1.686%. We're up around 6% on the week, and poised for a massive breakout if we push beyond 1.77%, the previous high from March. The Vix blew up yesterday, rallying a whopping 30% before cooling to a 25 handle as of 9AM. We appear to be in the midst of a vicious reversal, as is usually the case when Vix spikes. However, the majors are still incredibly overvalued, historically so, and would need to see a 30% correction to match the levels seen in the dot com bubble. Needless to say, I'm holding my Vix longs, for big short 2.0. The Dollar (DXY) had a fantastic day yesterday as risk was fled for safe havens; even the flaming dollar. But saw some weakness after testing a high of 90.907 in the overnight session. We're likely going to see a test of the lower band of the wedge, around 91, before we see a solid rejection back to 90. Having said that, the dollar is likely going to see a bid at some point, when the Fed mentions the word no one on Main Street wants to hear, which is taper. Inflation will force the Fed's hand, and they won't have a choice but to reduce bond purchases, and raise rates, leading to a cascade of selling in debt support assets such as real estate, and growth. Finally, the Put/Call rose almost 20% yesterday, rising to the highest level since October, 2020 at 0.83. We're seeing a blatant shift in positioning in the equity options market, so hold on to your hats as the PPI data confirms that inflation is rampant, and potentially at the stage where it can do significant damage to Main Street. * I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
12