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US10Y

It's Buy-back Season, Baby!9:12AM - Market preview: - Yesterday's PA looked like a buy-back fueled spending fest, with corporations spending as much on buy-backs as they did pre-COVID. I guess somethings never change, or do they? The Ponzi appears to be alive and well (for now). Don't you just love it when individual investors have next to no control over PA? However, this morning, the S&P is set to open down around 0.30% to 3,946, with the Dow down 0.12% to 32,993, the Nasdaq down 0.64% to 12,861, and the Russell down around 0.15% to 2,152. - Vix is holding on to a 21 handle after kissing a new post March crash low of 18.70 last Friday (we've now filled the final gap), and we're rallying toward the upper end of the range with conviction. - The US10Y Treasury yield continues to rip higher, and moments ago we tested the highest level since Jan 2020 around 1.774%, likely putting pressure on risk. The US30Y yield is also rallying after a strong performance yesterday, and we're back near the previous high around 2.464%. - The US Dollar (DXY) exploded overnight, and blew past our intraday target of 93. We're now sitting around 93.22 at 9AM, and heading toward the 94 level (our monthly target is 95.25. - European markets traded mixed again, with the CAC40 up by 0.57%, and the Dax up 0.31%, with the FTSE 100 flat and the SMI down 0.23%. Asian markets were mixed also, with the Hang Seng up 0.31%, the CSI 300 down 0.20%, and the Nikkei 225 up around 1%. - Gold is puking on the stronger dollar, and rise in yields, and is down around 1.65% to 1,684, with Silver down by as much as 2.25% (we've now lost the 200 day MA). We're trading around 24.08. Platinum is down 0.60%, and is sitting at 1,166, while Copper traded lower by 1.45% to 3.97, and Palladium rose by 1.85% to 2,583, after falling by as much as 5% yesterday. - Crude is down notably, with WTI down 1.7%, and trading at 60.46, and Brent down around 1.57%, and trading around 63.96. - Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:DXYLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
BEARISH COUNT - Is there a top in place?Hello traders, this is a possible wave count on the EURUSD, providing a bearish scenario. US bond yields are rising rapidly providing strength into the USD. the DXY is currently trading under a key trend line resistance (see the comment section below). FED Chair Jerome Powell has attempted to calm inflation fears this week during his testimony, however the market appears to be ignoring his comments. Initially, we thought wave 5 had not completed, however, if there is a break back below the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation, then we can assume a top is in place and we are set for a deeper correction. If anyone has any other wave counts please share below in the comment section!
Short
by Trading_Tony
9
March rate cuts had nothing to do with COVID...but the pandemic offered pretext to take dramatic action when it was already needed. When J. Powell started announcing rate cuts after the late 2019 'taper tantrum', nobody was surprised, either by the cuts or their size. These were modest cuts announced in successive FOMC releases. All seemed normal and the market appeared to take a breather on slightly lower rates. Then something peculiar happened in March 2020. Powell announced quite large rate cuts, not once, but twice, in two weeks, outside of the FOMC schedule. The pretext of course, was the pandemic, but the timing might suggest otherwise. Looking at the band of yields, you can see that the curve was already collapsing in January and February. The histogram displayed with the yield band is a composite indicator of all yield curves, each duration being weighed against the next. It appears that the rate cuts announced during FOMC after the 'taper tantrum' were insufficient to set the curve free, and it was still collapsing under higher rates. Powell needed to act quickly and aggressively. The pandemic offered the pretext of an outside threat to the economy. A one-off black swan event. This allowed taking action without having to explain that the bond market was already in deep trouble. The timing of the out-of-schedule rate cuts were both on days that the US10Y broke below key support.
TVC:US10Y
by iamroot
1
US 10 Year Yield: Right Where It Should BeSometimes you need to zoom your chart out for perspective. This run-up in yields has been fast, but looking at the 40+ year trend of US10Y, it appears merely corrective after bonds were panic bid in March 2020. Higher yields from here will weigh heavily on over-valued and over-indebted companies. Looking at you, tech stocks. Some attrition in this area over the next few years would, in my opinion, benefit the overall health of the economy in the long term.
TVC:US10Y
by iamroot
S&P500 on the crossroadsAfter a year of phenomenal growth of stocks, commodities and assets we have made it to the crossroads. We will see more growth or is it time for a (temporary) cool off period and will major investors bring their money to a safer place? The opposite is true for the DXY, is it time for a bullish DXY for the short, mid term or was is this the last glow of the dollar? Lots of uncertainty on the markets and with me; one thing is true: we are on the crossroads. I am glad to hear your opinion about where you think this is going....
OANDA:SPX500USD
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
US10 Y - TREND REVERSAL IN PROGRESS...D1 : Recent price action is showing a trend reversal in progress. Indeed, last Friday a "doji" (uncertainty and indecision) took place which has been followed yesterday by a bearish engulfing pattern ! Today's ongoing price action continue to move to the downside. Watch carefully the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion Line, currently @ 1.6140 as the first important support and last but not least, at the MID BOLLINGER BAND, "T H E L E A D I N G I N D I C A T O R", currently @ 1.5620 as a pivot level for the ongoing session (s) If you find my analysis valuable for your trading, please do not forget to like and follow me Have a nice trading day All the best Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
2
Chart of the Day: US10Y mean reversion in full swing but...US10Y mean reversion in full swing but keep bigger picture in mind. We do not expect an exodus en masse for US treasuries after the announcement that the SLR relief was not to be extended. The reason for that was twofold. Firstly, it was the calming comments from multiple and highly respected analysts in the fixed income space who explained that the impact on market functioning might not be as big as some had initially feared. Secondly, positioning always played a huge part in this with primary dealers already shedding more than $80 billion in treasuries going into the FOMC meeting in anticipation of the SLR relief not being extended. The most important thing to keep in mind right now is the bigger picture, where the med term bias for US10Y still remains titled to the upside. That means keeping a very close eye on the key support to the downside will be very important. Both the 1.60% and 1.50% level are the obvious support areas where we would expect the bond sellers to lean back into and push US10Y higher again. This will be very important due to the strong inverse correlation between US10Y with GOLD and JPY as well as the positive correlation with the USD. Any signs that the 1.60% is holding would still be considered as an opportunity to look for USDJPY upside from a med term perspective so keep that on your radar.
TVC:US10Y
by thunderpips
5
BTC & EUR correction: the dollar has a comeback!BTC & EURO are very correlated because if the EUR goes up the USD goes down and consequently BTC goes up. This week I expect more losses for the EUR and BTC because of the parabolic moves of US10Y notes. (bonds) The fed has an announcement today and I dont know what they will announce but I bet they do everything to protect their dollar. In my chart you can clearly see that when the Euro surges; BTC does so aswell. (zoom out) For the middle / short term I dont expect a recovery from the euro. This is because European bonds have negative yield and are as valuable as toiletpaper, this means more selling of EU bonds and more buying of US bonds. This will only strengthen the dollar even more; this could lead to a short (!) bear market for BTC and the Euro. In my opinion to continue the bull run in crypto we need a correction to cool down NUPL, Thermocap (etc) and to get smart money onboard. Smart money is not buying the top, we need smart money because we are all broke and will not move BTC anywhere up... Remember BTC is a grown up asset now and we need almost a trillion to get it to 100K and no thats not coming from you or me. If BTC really corrects, this means trouble for major alts and they will dump a lot stronger than BTC, however this will create a new impulse of smart money buying. So in my opinion, either you do nothing or you anticipate but you do not want to panic at the bottom and sell there. Another important factor is how the stock markets will react to the parabolic yields and or the announcement of the fed. I think the markets (esp those in the US) are overextended and need a correction (not a crash per se but its possible) to continue the bull run. So similar situation as BTC; see my linked chart below S&P500 vs BTC for more info on those bull runs. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest at your own risk and research. TARGETS: BTC current: 57420 Short term target: 54100-53350 (next 48hrs) Mid / short term: 50900-5100 (before 27-03-2021) Eur current: 1.1889 Short term target: 1.1789 (96hrs) Mid term target: 1.134 (before end of April) Dont hate corrections, they are healthy, extend the bull run and you can actually buy BTC cheaper. ;)
Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
2
Another 6%+ jump of US10Y leading to NQ's retreat from key zone!Hi everyone. It's another 6%+ jump of US 10Y yield which resulted in the drop of NQ and gold from early EU session! I'm worried about Hang Seng index and CSI300 tomorrow. As I mentioned in the related ideas below, the uptrend continuation of US 10Y rocked the markets. Last week, it was in the 1.6% territory and now 1.7%. The speed is a concern. In my view, back to the normal level of 1.9% to 2% is a high probability event. Hedge funds and speculative institutions wouldn't let the chance pass. There are even Inverse Bond ETFs for short sellers to make some money. So, what's next? Technically, the failure of challenging the key level disappointed me. On the daily chart, the below zone marked in yellow around 12700 would serve as a solid demand zone. I'm tired of watching how assets react to US 10Y yield. I'm counting the days of re-focus on fundamentals, e.g. corporate earnings. By the way, did you notice that gold is more sensitive to the yield? Check out my related ideas below! Give me a like and follow if you like my idea.
FX:NAS100Short
by JICPT
1
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YELD GROWINGBond markets have experienced a strong movement this week with the U.S. Federal Reserve saying it expects higher economic growth and inflation in the United States this year, although it repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero. Yields on U.S. 10-year have been rising for the past seven weeks on growth expectations, spiked to their highest since January 2020 at 1.754% on Thursday. They eased to 1.6838% on Friday. The SEB analysts said they expected the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to hit 2% this year
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXN1
10
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD vs S&P 500The upper chart shows US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD since 1980(monthly chart), and the lower chart shows its performance in comparison with S&P 500 in the last trading year. As it is obvious US10Y experiencing a V-shape pattern and has climbed 2 channels (almost375%) in the past 12 months. If it continues the same pattern it would not be surprising to see +3% in the next 12 months! From this point of view, we may experience a deeper correction in the months ahead.
TVC:SPXShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
NZDUSD carry trade shrinksAs the US 10 year yields rise - they impact more than just the price of stocks. The Carry trade or difference between a funding currency and investment currency is also impacted. While both New Zealand and the US ten year rates are rising, the difference between New Zealand 10 Year Yields and US 10 Year rates is diminishing. This makes the NZDUSD carry trade less appealing, for this reason the currency falls. The stronger the gap between the two yields, as we saw in earlier March, the higher the Kiwi climbs. At the moment the Kiwi is well below recent price action. Recent Q4 GDP showing that the economy showing was not as growing as expected has also added to the NZDUSD woes.
TVC:NZ10Y
by majicktrader
US10Y: U.S. 10 Year Treasury (Does inflation eat money?)There are two channels in a row on the chart. One of them is the Fibonacci Channels, while the horizontal ones are the Fibonacci Retracement. The overlapping point of these two channels is 1.93% and we predict that we will reach this point in a short time. Of course, we don't say this just by looking at the lines on the graph. With the latest incentive package, the money that will flow to the markets is obvious, and everybody says that inflation is coming. Growth in the US will be very strong, and this will inevitably result in deferred demand turning into a buying act ... It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
TVC:US10YLong
by EmoteK
GME Seeing Heavy Support, Will we see a Retest of 300+?After a near 50% crash over just 5 days, GameStop (GME) is seeing heavy support at the 21 day EMA, and we're back at a 222 handle. My play here would be to exclusively short GME when we see the upper band of the flag tested near 300+. But, to be honest, with risk so incredibly sporadic, and flows (and price) essentially blurred by MM and Fed manipulation, I'm staying away from GME until I see another massive rally. Then my plan would be to short back to sub 250's...
NYSE:GME
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
TSLA Catching Notable SupportAfter persistent rejections at the 21 day EMA, Tesla (TSLA) is back at the 100 day MA support around 657.31. Even if TSLA saw incredible flows, their cash burn on the aggressive (global) expansion is going to be hindered by tighter monetary conditions going forward. TSLA's bonds are incredibly important to it's viability/growth strategy, so we need to see a massive win for TSLA in the near future in terms of actual revenues/flows, or we could be heading back to the 500 level very soon...
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
16