Get started

US10Y

Chart of the Day: US10Y mean reversion in full swing but...US10Y mean reversion in full swing but keep bigger picture in mind. We do not expect an exodus en masse for US treasuries after the announcement that the SLR relief was not to be extended. The reason for that was twofold. Firstly, it was the calming comments from multiple and highly respected analysts in the fixed income space who explained that the impact on market functioning might not be as big as some had initially feared. Secondly, positioning always played a huge part in this with primary dealers already shedding more than $80 billion in treasuries going into the FOMC meeting in anticipation of the SLR relief not being extended. The most important thing to keep in mind right now is the bigger picture, where the med term bias for US10Y still remains titled to the upside. That means keeping a very close eye on the key support to the downside will be very important. Both the 1.60% and 1.50% level are the obvious support areas where we would expect the bond sellers to lean back into and push US10Y higher again. This will be very important due to the strong inverse correlation between US10Y with GOLD and JPY as well as the positive correlation with the USD. Any signs that the 1.60% is holding would still be considered as an opportunity to look for USDJPY upside from a med term perspective so keep that on your radar.
TVC:US10Y
by thunderpips
5
BTC & EUR correction: the dollar has a comeback!BTC & EURO are very correlated because if the EUR goes up the USD goes down and consequently BTC goes up. This week I expect more losses for the EUR and BTC because of the parabolic moves of US10Y notes. (bonds) The fed has an announcement today and I dont know what they will announce but I bet they do everything to protect their dollar. In my chart you can clearly see that when the Euro surges; BTC does so aswell. (zoom out) For the middle / short term I dont expect a recovery from the euro. This is because European bonds have negative yield and are as valuable as toiletpaper, this means more selling of EU bonds and more buying of US bonds. This will only strengthen the dollar even more; this could lead to a short (!) bear market for BTC and the Euro. In my opinion to continue the bull run in crypto we need a correction to cool down NUPL, Thermocap (etc) and to get smart money onboard. Smart money is not buying the top, we need smart money because we are all broke and will not move BTC anywhere up... Remember BTC is a grown up asset now and we need almost a trillion to get it to 100K and no thats not coming from you or me. If BTC really corrects, this means trouble for major alts and they will dump a lot stronger than BTC, however this will create a new impulse of smart money buying. So in my opinion, either you do nothing or you anticipate but you do not want to panic at the bottom and sell there. Another important factor is how the stock markets will react to the parabolic yields and or the announcement of the fed. I think the markets (esp those in the US) are overextended and need a correction (not a crash per se but its possible) to continue the bull run. So similar situation as BTC; see my linked chart below S&P500 vs BTC for more info on those bull runs. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest at your own risk and research. TARGETS: BTC current: 57420 Short term target: 54100-53350 (next 48hrs) Mid / short term: 50900-5100 (before 27-03-2021) Eur current: 1.1889 Short term target: 1.1789 (96hrs) Mid term target: 1.134 (before end of April) Dont hate corrections, they are healthy, extend the bull run and you can actually buy BTC cheaper. ;)
Short
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
2
Another 6%+ jump of US10Y leading to NQ's retreat from key zone!Hi everyone. It's another 6%+ jump of US 10Y yield which resulted in the drop of NQ and gold from early EU session! I'm worried about Hang Seng index and CSI300 tomorrow. As I mentioned in the related ideas below, the uptrend continuation of US 10Y rocked the markets. Last week, it was in the 1.6% territory and now 1.7%. The speed is a concern. In my view, back to the normal level of 1.9% to 2% is a high probability event. Hedge funds and speculative institutions wouldn't let the chance pass. There are even Inverse Bond ETFs for short sellers to make some money. So, what's next? Technically, the failure of challenging the key level disappointed me. On the daily chart, the below zone marked in yellow around 12700 would serve as a solid demand zone. I'm tired of watching how assets react to US 10Y yield. I'm counting the days of re-focus on fundamentals, e.g. corporate earnings. By the way, did you notice that gold is more sensitive to the yield? Check out my related ideas below! Give me a like and follow if you like my idea.
FX:NAS100Short
by JICPT
1
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YELD GROWINGBond markets have experienced a strong movement this week with the U.S. Federal Reserve saying it expects higher economic growth and inflation in the United States this year, although it repeated its pledge to keep its target interest rate near zero. Yields on U.S. 10-year have been rising for the past seven weeks on growth expectations, spiked to their highest since January 2020 at 1.754% on Thursday. They eased to 1.6838% on Friday. The SEB analysts said they expected the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to hit 2% this year
TVC:US10Y
by FOREXN1
10
US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD vs S&P 500The upper chart shows US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD since 1980(monthly chart), and the lower chart shows its performance in comparison with S&P 500 in the last trading year. As it is obvious US10Y experiencing a V-shape pattern and has climbed 2 channels (almost375%) in the past 12 months. If it continues the same pattern it would not be surprising to see +3% in the next 12 months! From this point of view, we may experience a deeper correction in the months ahead.
TVC:SPXShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
NZDUSD carry trade shrinksAs the US 10 year yields rise - they impact more than just the price of stocks. The Carry trade or difference between a funding currency and investment currency is also impacted. While both New Zealand and the US ten year rates are rising, the difference between New Zealand 10 Year Yields and US 10 Year rates is diminishing. This makes the NZDUSD carry trade less appealing, for this reason the currency falls. The stronger the gap between the two yields, as we saw in earlier March, the higher the Kiwi climbs. At the moment the Kiwi is well below recent price action. Recent Q4 GDP showing that the economy showing was not as growing as expected has also added to the NZDUSD woes.
TVC:NZ10Y
by majicktrader
US10Y: U.S. 10 Year Treasury (Does inflation eat money?)There are two channels in a row on the chart. One of them is the Fibonacci Channels, while the horizontal ones are the Fibonacci Retracement. The overlapping point of these two channels is 1.93% and we predict that we will reach this point in a short time. Of course, we don't say this just by looking at the lines on the graph. With the latest incentive package, the money that will flow to the markets is obvious, and everybody says that inflation is coming. Growth in the US will be very strong, and this will inevitably result in deferred demand turning into a buying act ... It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
TVC:US10YLong
by EmoteK
GME Seeing Heavy Support, Will we see a Retest of 300+?After a near 50% crash over just 5 days, GameStop (GME) is seeing heavy support at the 21 day EMA, and we're back at a 222 handle. My play here would be to exclusively short GME when we see the upper band of the flag tested near 300+. But, to be honest, with risk so incredibly sporadic, and flows (and price) essentially blurred by MM and Fed manipulation, I'm staying away from GME until I see another massive rally. Then my plan would be to short back to sub 250's...
NYSE:GME
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
TSLA Catching Notable SupportAfter persistent rejections at the 21 day EMA, Tesla (TSLA) is back at the 100 day MA support around 657.31. Even if TSLA saw incredible flows, their cash burn on the aggressive (global) expansion is going to be hindered by tighter monetary conditions going forward. TSLA's bonds are incredibly important to it's viability/growth strategy, so we need to see a massive win for TSLA in the near future in terms of actual revenues/flows, or we could be heading back to the 500 level very soon...
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
16