BTC VS DOLLAR - The correction is not over (yet)BTC & EUR CORRECTION:
The Dollar and Bitcoin are pegged in a negative way; when USD goes up, BTC goes down and vice versa.
Currently the dollar is having a small breakout to the upside; and thus the EUR and BTC are correcting.
At this very moment many people believe the BTC correction is over, I do not think so.
Another bad factor for crypto is a new pump for Yields (check my US10Y chart in the link below).
TA:
Check chart, corrections getting smaller and smaller and we almost finished our 5 major Elliot wave.
We could expect a bounce for BTC and crypto by the end of the week, check my chart for levels and validation of a possible breakout to the upside.
Target for breakout is between 64-67K, it might get very bloody after that, however if so; the bull market will not be over.
MORE INFO ON MY PROFILE:
Check my charts linked below for BTC, BTCD, US10Y and BTCD, EUR/USD.
COMMENT:
I have yet to look at SP500 and NASDAQ so if anyone knows more about the stock market, please let me know.
Also I'd be happy to hear your opinion on BTC, USD and the stock market!
IMPORTANT: this is not investment advice, trade or invest at your own risk and research.
US10Y
MACROECONOMICS - SSE 100 - World Markets & Crypto Forecast Hello everyone,
This is not meant to be political, or financial advice... Just a scenario to entertain.
It is my hypothesis that China is leading the world economy, and other economies are acting as derivatives...
China is positioned for a downturn, and they are the least financially leveraged out of the major economies in their pandemic response. Others markets will follow, but with greater volatility!
Possible paths for SSE 100, DJI, US10Y, and (Crypto) Total MCap.
As always, GLHF!
- DPT
US10Y Yield Will Show A Growth In Broadening Wedge To 1.75%Throughout the last one month, I noticed that US10Y has been trading within an ascending broadening wedge chart pattern, and has been respecting the two diverging bullish lines that form its dynamic support and resistance extremely well.
After bouncing off the dynamic support of the ascending broadening wedge, US10Y is now halfway through its growth towards the dynamic resistance. I expect this growth to continue and hit around 1.75% by the end of March.
It is also interesting to note that if US10Y continues to move within this ascending broadening wedge (assuming status quo on a macro level), we are potentially looking at 2.5% to 3% yields by mid-2021.
I used mid-2021 as a reference point because this morning, I came across a Wall Street Journal article stating these:
"Economists in the Journal survey said they see annual inflation rising to 2.8% by the middle of this year, then falling gradually after that"
"“Inflation will reach levels rarely experienced over the past decade, at close to 3% in mid-2021, but uncontrolled overheating isn’t likely,” Mr. Daco said."
Source of article: www.wsj.com
So I thought it will be interesting to compare it to the current ascending broadening wedge technical chart pattern that US10Y is current trading within, and it looks like we are definitely on track to those numbers if this continues.
Just some food for thought!
This is not an investment or trading advice so please do your own due diligence!
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BOND YIELDS scary now? Rising way bk frm Aug 2020 (& GOLD down)What this chart shows... The treasury bond yield and the price of gold have a strong relationship in the long and medium terms (in inverse directions, hence the use of GLL UltraShort Gold ETF as a comparative measure - PURPLE line). Yields had been falling strongly, and gold price rising swiftly throughout 2019 and into 2020. After the initial Wuhan Virus shock, yields fell even lower and the price of gold rocketed to historical highs - their movements turned around together in early August 2020 (US10Y yield starting to pick up from Mon Aug 3, and gold starting falls from Fri Aug 7), and have been relentlessly moving like that from that date.
The US Dollar, which had been generally strengthening for over two years pre-Wuhan, flipped post-Wuhan; and has been weakening over most of the post-Wuhan period to date (despite weaker gold prices and strengthening US yields from early Aug as we have mentioned). Right on cue, within the first week of 2021 (particularly Jan 7), the USD belatedly began to move in the direction of continued higher yields (with an ever weaker gold price) - this was especially notable in the USDJPY yen and the USDEUR euro .
Despite a steep surge in bond yields and the USD for four trading sessions from Jan 7 (and accompanying erosion of the gold price), equity markets were not overly disturbed. But it is a further sustained spurt in bond yields from Feb 16, that has market commentators pointing the finger for the shock to the NASDAQ (IXIC - BLACK line). (Out of step, the USD actually weakened when considered against the USDEUR and the USDAUD from Feb 5 to Feb 25; but they seem to be following the storyline after that.)
US10Y - D1 - POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Recent recovery seen over the last couple of days is triggering a potential double top formation in progress.
(trigger level to confirm this pattern @ 1.3860 and target 1.1890 which is also currently the level of the trend
support line which started in August 2020 and also to some extend the clouds support area.
RSI is also showing a bearish divergence in progress (wait for confirmation)
A failure to hold above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line @ 1.4560) would be one the firs signal of a trend reversal)
Global
Watch H4 and shorter time frames for clues
US10Y until 1.96 to 2.0 HIT STOCK SELL-OFFBullish Until 1.95 to 2.0% if 2 .10 break then we could see another higher 2.86% level, UNtil Yeild bullish stock under pressure and keep going downside for correction DJI NSDQ100 AND SP500 ALSO BITCOIN
🛑SUPPORT/RESISTANCE
✅S1= 1.40
✅S2=1.10
✴️R1=1.65
✴️R2=1.95
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US 10 Year Government Bonds about to go down Us 10 year Governmont Bonds
-RSI is 77,45 which is all time high since 1994 !!!
-in 1-2 days any drop on RSI can result with big drop on US 10Y which will be very positive for Exchanges and Crypto
- US10Y about to meet with 200 Weeks MA
US10Y down Crypto Up
Please read this first !
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
Regards
Bond Yield (US Treasury Bond) Projection.This chart is a projection of what how the US Treasury Bond yield may retrace back down following the recent upward spike. The chart uses Fibonacci retracement and a Fibonacci time scale that seems to have aligned with many of the major movements in Bond Yield over time.