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US10Y

BOND YIELDS scary now? Rising way bk frm Aug 2020 (& GOLD down)What this chart shows... The treasury bond yield and the price of gold have a strong relationship in the long and medium terms (in inverse directions, hence the use of GLL UltraShort Gold ETF as a comparative measure - PURPLE line). Yields had been falling strongly, and gold price rising swiftly throughout 2019 and into 2020. After the initial Wuhan Virus shock, yields fell even lower and the price of gold rocketed to historical highs - their movements turned around together in early August 2020 (US10Y yield starting to pick up from Mon Aug 3, and gold starting falls from Fri Aug 7), and have been relentlessly moving like that from that date. The US Dollar, which had been generally strengthening for over two years pre-Wuhan, flipped post-Wuhan; and has been weakening over most of the post-Wuhan period to date (despite weaker gold prices and strengthening US yields from early Aug as we have mentioned). Right on cue, within the first week of 2021 (particularly Jan 7), the USD belatedly began to move in the direction of continued higher yields (with an ever weaker gold price) - this was especially notable in the USDJPY yen and the USDEUR euro . Despite a steep surge in bond yields and the USD for four trading sessions from Jan 7 (and accompanying erosion of the gold price), equity markets were not overly disturbed. But it is a further sustained spurt in bond yields from Feb 16, that has market commentators pointing the finger for the shock to the NASDAQ (IXIC - BLACK line). (Out of step, the USD actually weakened when considered against the USDEUR and the USDAUD from Feb 5 to Feb 25; but they seem to be following the storyline after that.)
TVC:US10Y
by dartde
US10Y - D1 - POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Recent recovery seen over the last couple of days is triggering a potential double top formation in progress. (trigger level to confirm this pattern @ 1.3860 and target 1.1890 which is also currently the level of the trend support line which started in August 2020 and also to some extend the clouds support area. RSI is also showing a bearish divergence in progress (wait for confirmation) A failure to hold above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line @ 1.4560) would be one the firs signal of a trend reversal) Global Watch H4 and shorter time frames for clues
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
US 10 Year Government Bonds about to go down Us 10 year Governmont Bonds -RSI is 77,45 which is all time high since 1994 !!! -in 1-2 days any drop on RSI can result with big drop on US 10Y which will be very positive for Exchanges and Crypto - US10Y about to meet with 200 Weeks MA US10Y down Crypto Up Please read this first ! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading plan for the market. But you must do your own research and use it as the priority. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading. Regards
TVC:US10YShort
by karati
DXY - Fate - USD, Debt, Gold, and EnergyFate: The Great Recession in the United States was a severe financial crisis combined with a deep recession. While the recession officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, it took many years for the economy to recover to pre-crisis levels of employment and output. This slow recovery was due in part to households and financial institutions paying off debts accumulated in the years preceding the crisis along with restrained government spending following initial stimulus efforts. It followed the bursting of the housing bubble, the housing market correction and subprime mortgage crisis. The U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported its findings in January 2011. It concluded that "the crisis was avoidable and was caused by: Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve's failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages; Dramatic breakdowns in corporate governance including too many financial firms acting recklessly and taking on too much risk; An explosive mix of excessive borrowing and risk by households and Wall Street that put the financial system on a collision course with crisis; Key policy makers ill prepared for the crisis, lacking a full understanding of the financial system they oversaw; and systemic breaches in accountability and ethics at all levels." I'm going to stop. Getting warnings, now. This is my last one. I will play the normal game again...
INDEX:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
A perfect ending? who will end the Bitcoin bull market?First of all, I am not a market predictor. The reason why I made this topic is because I found the perfect geometric structure on the Bitcoin price chart. This geometric structure has perfectly verified the high and low points of Bitcoin on the weekly chart since 2017. I am surprised indeed. If this perfect structure is to be maintained, the all-time high of Bitcoin that we have just experienced may be the end of the first phase of the bull market since last year with principle of least resistance line. With all-time high of ~ 58504$ on Feb, 2021, ~19927$ high price on Dec, 2017 is perfectly 0.618 (Key golden ratio) of this all-time high; ~3093$ low price on Dec, 2018 is perfectly all-time low (Zen Theory, 1st buying point); ~14030$ high price on Jun, 2019 is perfectly 0.5 (Key golden ratio) of this all-time high; ~3772$ low price on Mar, 2020 is perfectly 0.114 =(1-0.886) of this all-time high; (Zen Theory, 2nd buying point); With these four verified high/low price points, the history makes a perfect geometric structure in nature. This is the reason why I name the topic? From the long term, I am still bullish on Bitcoin. However, a retracement will be helpful to form Zen Theory pivot zone and accordingly a 3rd buying point, which may be happen in 2 years later. To form a Zen 3rd buy point on weekly chart, there are three possible support levels, 1. 0.886 of all-time high, which is ~41700$ 2. 0.786 of all-time high, which is ~31287$ 3. 0.618 of all-time high, which is ~19099$ The lower ratio value, the longer time it takes. When will a weekly level dump happen? It is still taking some time for sub-week level pivot zone to form. From weekly BBPMACD indicator, we can see although bull power shrinks quickly, bear power still very low to activate a pump in weeks. Who will be the driving force behind the Bitcoin price dump? The answer is FED. It is the central bank of all global central banks. US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD (US10Y) have surged recently, causing global risk assets to dive. This means that the global cost of risk-free assets has suddenly dropped to the level of ~64. Based on my own calculation, current equivalent Bitcoin PE Ratio is around 32. This means that when US GOVERNMENT BONDS 10 YR YIELD rises to 3.14%, the price of Bitcoin may drop sharply. The S&P 500 index may fall first at around 2.5%.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by blackcat1402
6
Rising US Yields drive USDJPY Rising US yields are attracting those investors who borrow Japanese Yen at the much lower rate and and then purchase American dollars to earn a higher return than in Japan - knowns as the carry trade. The correlation shows times when USDJPY carry trade is a key driver of the currency pair, however it is not always, because these are both go to currencies in times of fear, that's when the correlation between the yield differential breaks down. (E.g. in 2018 during the CHina US Trade War) However, since early Feb when the yields started to rise rapidly, investors have jumped in, selling Yen and buying USD. So long as rates continue to rise (and Powell gave no indication of YCC last night during his speech), this trend will continue. It's worth commenting that Japanese 10 Year Rates are also rising, however in absolute basis points, the rise in the US yield has been much higher. This carry trade will increase demand for USD and lend strength to the bulls case for a stronger USD in 2021.
TVC:US10Y
by majicktrader
1
10Y US Government Bond vs Gold10Y US Government Bond reached an important decision and supply area, where bears can trigger the control again, boosted by ultra dovish FED. By technical side the RSI is overbought on the weekly timeframe, and the course is currently at a massive resistance + previous low + fibonacci retracements (61.8-78.6) + under/at 200 EMA, which shows dowside as well. I am waiting a lower high, and a counter trend break soon with a hidden weekly rsi divergence. Based on these, precious metals can shine again soon, it is time to reload long positions in the related assets.
TVC:US10YShort
by pomoziadam
1
TLT rocket ready for Powell's launch sequenceWhile the bond market blood bath may scare some, I believe it is an opportunity to catch a fly with chopsticks Mr. Miagi style. The narrative that bonds are selling off because of inflation fears is oversold hype and Guggenheim's CIO Scott Minerd and PIMCO's head of short-term management Jerome Schnieder agree. www.guggenheiminvestments.com www.youtube.com Inflation is transient and with a liquidity supernova descending upon the markets, this will push short-term rates down leaving fixed-income investors chasing long-term (duration) bonds. The Fed itself will likely introduce some type of Twist style program expanding purchases of duration bonds. Add in the upcoming SLR exemption expiration and the historical long-term trend in the decline in the US10Y and the case for lower rates becomes very sexy. Yellen is going to be dumping $1.1T into money markets. www.bloomberg.com SLR exclusion exemption may not be extended. Democrats are demanding higher banking restrictions. No SLR extension creates a bottleneck for O/N repos and warehousing. www.ft.com There is also a strong technical case as it is oversold and we've had a very bullish engulfing reversal candle. This looks primed to explode any day now. Additionally, the US10Y looks overbought with the classic evening star doji. Minerd believes rates US10Y will hit -.5% by 2022. While I think that is a little on the extreme end of the range, I do believe 1.15% to 1.25% in the near term is realistic with .5%. Disclaimer: At the time of writing I do hold longer-dated expiry ITM TLT calls.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by StockSniper00
5