US 10Y TREASURY: first cut in September? To be or not to be – the rate cut this year? The markets switched their expectations from March and May toward September, although currently not with high certainty. Recent data show still high resilience of the US economy on tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was a figure much higher from 0.3% expected by markets. For markets, this information means that the inflation might pick up further, so the Fed will be reluctant to cut interest rates. Still, Friday trading session brought some strong corrections in 10Y US yields. Although Treasury bonds were traded at 4.69% at their weekly peak, they slipped on Friday till the level of 4.5%. Still, yields are ending the week at 4.62%. The modest drop in yields during Friday was the result of developments in the Middle East, however, the markets swiftly corrected their view, turning it toward the current fundamentals.
Aside from fundamentals which are not quite favored by markets, the geopolitics will continue to have their own influence on markets. In this sense, some relaxation in 10Y Treasury yields should be expected, however, they will react to any negative news related to the Middle East crisis. Markets will continue to weigh on the risks from this side.
US10Y
AAPL Winding up for a Pump or Massive Drop - Inflection PointWithin the next few quarters we're likely to see some impressive fireworks in the various markets around the world as we gear up for multiple black swan events IE negative oil prices.
The storm isn't over, it's just begun.
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US 10Y TREASURY: inflation means less rate cutsJobs data were the ones that moved the markets two weeks ago, while the previous week was marked with inflation data. The US inflation is quite persistent and moved higher to 3.5% in March, from 3.4% that the market was expecting. The overall market sentiment is that the Fed will stay reluctant to decrease interest rates during the course of this year, since the inflation is slowly moving far away from targeted 2%. However, not all on the market are of this opinion. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, made a comment of his expectations that the Fed might cut interest rates at least two times till the end of this year, however, the estimated 2% will be missed. In other words, he expects that the Fed will drop the idea of a 2% target, and accept its higher levels. What will be the final Fed's decision, markets will know in May this year, since the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for the first week of May.
During the previous week market priced current expectations and moved 10Y Treasury yields to the much higher grounds, from previously expected and traded. At one moment yields reached the level of 4.59%, however, they ended the week at 4.52%. Since the market priced currently known information, it could be expected that yields will calm down a bit in the week ahead. However, there should not be expected some significant drop in yields, at least until the next FOMC meeting.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,967 (4H TF)📉I think there's a good chance that Gold has now topped or will early next week. We've seen a 3 bullish impulse completion of Wave 5 (Wave X-Y-Z). Even though the 'selling confirmation' price is $2,265 & offers a safe entry point, I've found a risk entry on the 1H TF🤞🏼
⭕️5 Wave Bullish Move Complete.
⭕️Selling Divergence.
⭕️A-B-C Wave Correction Yet Pending.
Wild Prediction- Gold CRASH Incoming?!🩸Here's an inverted scale of the previous chart which I posted for you all, showing another angle on the Gold market. Gold has tapped into our zone for sells and so far rejecting. Let's see if this huge move can play out!
I've been buying XAUUSD since prices been at early $1,600's. Is it time for a reversal? It's not impossible.
Gold is extremely overbought & moving in positive correlation with the DXY which is unlikely. I am expecting the Dollar to carry on climbing up, which can put an end to Gold's rally. Let's see what happens. I'll be looking to hedge my buy positions with sells.
US 10Y TREASURY: jobs and inflation data Jobs data posted during the previous week surprised the markets in a negative way. It is sort of a paradox, considering that usually strong job market is good for the economy of any country. However, at the current situation, this strong jobs market sends a signal of a potential increase in inflation figures, which might impact the Fed's decision to cut interest rates during the course of this year. In addition, there should be noted a modest effect from new geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which impact jump in price of oil. The combination of these effects, made markets to reconsider their previously set projections, and re-position accordingly. In this sense, the 10Y Treasury yields made a significant move from levels around 4.2% all the way up to the level of 4.4% during the week.
In a week ahead data on US inflation rate in March are set to be released, which might drive some further volatility on the markets. Depending on data, if inflation is persistent then some further moves around 4.4% might be expected. On the opposite side, there should be some relaxation in yields, at least till the level of 4.3%.
US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle
Ascending triangle detected on US10Y
The exponential moving averages remain possible targets
Monitor Ichimoku levels
The ROC ( Rate of Change) is in a positif territory.
Bonds can rise to a double top
Stay careful
Good trades to all
Bitcoin to $1,000,000, This is It. (Breakdown Explained)
Well here we are, no recession? no rate hikes? what's going on?. The currency collapse is imminent that's what is going on while majority wait for a recession.
No reserve currency has ever survived going past 121% Government Debt to GDP (what about USA in ww2?, this was the start of parabolic technology growth + decrease in spending + war debt repressions
(forced).
Government Debt + Interest will collapse the currency faster if the FED raises interest rates so this is not a possible outcome unless you want to roll the dice.
CPI + Inflation has barely been tamed, FED balance sheet failed to reduce + BTFP.
SPY (priced in USM2) has started a new bubble breakout
(yes meaning it has just started).
Japan raising interest rates means the carry trade is closing (people sell the US Bonds they bought with cheap JPY) adding artificial pressure on the US10Y market.
FED raising rates at 121% Government Debt to GDP will send it to 200% faster than you can imagine, a recession? forget it can't be allowed to happen.
Theory breakdown what happens next?
FED unable to raise rates will start to introduce confidence lost in the dollar that will trigger loss in confidence in US bonds that will require YCC like WW2. When the USA has done this before it equated to the FED needing to get rates back to zero.
The FED has an objective to save the US dollar above all means necessary, raising rates in a situation like this on paper makes sense but leads to to a accelerated debt cycle collapse.
Jerome Powell's only option was to raise rates fast as possible strengthening the DXY as much as they can flowing all capital globally back into the dollar for risk management.
Jerome Powell now must cut rates back to zero and initiate YCC on the US bond market, reinitiate Quantitative Easing to avoid any recession backstopping every market. Inflation must be allowed to run near 20%-100%. Large capital will see this event unfolding and run into assets like Bitcoin & Gold, we already see this and should understand why Spot ETF's and leverage ETF's were rushed to the market pre cuts.
If the US bond market fails, global capitalism as we know it today fails.
If my thesis was invalidated Jerome Powell would have started multiple more rate hike since I first mentioned this back in late 2023.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,967📉GOLD SHORT TO $1,967📉
Made slight wave adjustments (WAVE W-X-Y) & relabelled them as Gold pushed higher. Overall this selling analysis remains intact as our selling confirmation zone has not hit yet. I have moved the 'selling confirmation' price higher to $2,156. Being patient & not rushing into trades🤞🏼
US 10Y TREASURY: testing 4.2%The 10Y US Treasuries finished the first quarter testing 4.2% level. The favorite Fed's inflation gauge, PCE indicator was published on Friday, indicating that the inflation is moving within market expectations. This additionally supported market optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates in June this year, which is currently estimated with 60% chance. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York gathering, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that there is no rush for cutting interest rates. He saw a rationale in keeping interest rates at current levels for longer to help inflation on its "sustainable trajectory toward 2%".
Based on current charts, it might be expected that the market will start the week ahead by testing the 4.2% level. At this moment there are no expectations that yields might move below this level. On the opposite side, there is a low probability that yields could move higher to the upside, aside from 4.25% level. Overall, some higher swings in yields should not be expected at this moment.
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting Fed`s narrative Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some relaxation in 10Y Treasury yields, so they moved from 4.34% as a highest weekly level toward the supporting 4.2%.
Current question is whether yields are preparing for a move toward levels from the beginning of March, when they were standing at 4.0%? On a long run, they will certainly make this move, however, probably not during the week ahead. The reason is that markets take time to digest all the information received, and then make a decision on a clear move. In this sense, for the week ahead the most probable scenario is that 10Y Treasury yields will take some time to test the 4.2% before they decide for a move toward the lower grounds.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,960📉Gold keeps breaching new all time high's, after new all time high's. Luckily we're on the right side of history & buying. Also, as our 'selling confirmation' still hasn't hit, we haven't taken any losses from sells. I have moved our selling confirmation level up to $2,143 now🤞🏼
As Gold has breached the $2,200 zone, I have moved my 'Sell Target 1' up towards $1,960 now & 'Sell Target 2' towards $1,895.
GOLD SHORT TO $1,960📉Gold keeps breaching new all time high's, after new all time high's. Luckily we're on the right side of history & buying. Also, as our 'selling confirmation' still hasn't hit, we haven't taken any losses from sells. I have moved our selling confirmation level up to $2,143 now🤞🏼
As Gold has breached the $2,200 zone, I have moved my 'Sell Target 1' up towards $1,960 now & $1,895 as my second target.
Gold Buying Reaccumulation at $1960 - $1940📈After the heavy bull run all the way from 2016 - 2022, we saw Gold enter a reaccumulation phase from 2020 - 2023. A strong 3 years of consolidative price action. This was followed by a breakout recently.
Is it possible to see another dip down towards $1960's as a retest of this accumulation zone? I'll be keeping an eye out so I can buy the dips. BUT only if market structure offers the opportunity.
Gold Buying Reaccumulation at $1960 - $1940📈After the heavy bull run all the way from 2016 to 2022, we sae Gold enter a reaccumulating phase from 2020 - 2023. A strong 3 years of consolidative price action. This was followed by a breakout recently.
Is it possible we might see another dip down towards $1960's as a retest of this accumulation zone? I'll be keeping an eye out so I can buy the dips. BUT only if market structure offers the opportunity.