US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analysis(What we need to know)!Today, I want to analyze the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) for you in the weekly time frame . In fact, the US 10-Year Government Bonds shows the yield rate of ten-year US Treasury bonds and is a measure of investors' confidence in the US economy . As such, this index influences capital allocation across various markets and impacts broader financial conditions .
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The US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) started its upward trend after COVID-19 . After breaking the Important Resistance line and 200_SMA(Monthly) , we can hope for the continuation of US10Y's upward trend. (The Important Resistance line started in 1981 , so it was very important.)
According to the Elliott wave theory , US10Y seems to be completing main wave 4 , so main wave 3 was of the Extended type . If the upper line of the descending channel breaks, we can be more sure of the end of main wave 4.
I expect US10Y to rise at least as wide as the descending channel width and up to the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) after the descending channel break , completing the main wave 5 . If the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) is broken, we can expect a further increase in US10Y .
Now let's see if the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) increases , what will be the effect on other assets?
Impact of Rising 10-Year Bond Yields on Key Assets:
Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) and Other Cryptocurrencies : As bond yields increase, riskier assets like Bitcoin may face downward pressure. Investors are often drawn to safer investments, such as bonds, when yields rise, making cryptocurrencies less attractive.
Gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) : Higher bond yields usually put pressure on gold prices. Since gold does not offer any yield, a rising yield on bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing a potential decline in its price.
U.S. Stocks : Rising bond yields can lead to lower stock values, particularly in riskier sectors like tech. Higher bond yields often translate into increased borrowing costs, impacting growth and profitability, especially for companies that rely heavily on credit.
US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Weekly time frame⏰.
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Chart Analysis of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields
Based on current chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory, it appears we are in Wave 4 of a higher-degree cycle for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields. Wave 4 is typically a corrective phase following a strong trending Wave 3, suggesting that this phase may involve consolidation or retracement.
Key Levels to Watch:
38% Retracement (Lower Orange Line) : If yields bottom near this retracement level, it may indicate a potential support zone where Wave 4 could complete its correction.
61% Retracement (Upper Orange Line) : Should the yields find support at the 38% level, they might subsequently target the 61% retracement level of Wave 3, suggesting a potential upward move.
Market Implications : If the bond yields continue to rise and reach these retracement levels, we could witness a significant bearish trend in the broader market. However, it's crucial to recognize that market conditions are dynamic and can affect these projections.
Disclaimer : This analysis is based on the current technical chart patterns and Elliott Wave Theory. Market conditions are subject to change, and unforeseen factors can impact outcomes. Therefore, it's essential to stay informed and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Regards
US10Y yield to 8%+I know most people don't think this is a possibility, but I think it's highly probable.
I think we'll see the US10Y break the recent highs and head to 5.59% as the first target to the upside. Then I think we'll continue the bullish trend and end the bullish move in yields at 8.13%, I think at that point, that's when you'll want to go long risk for the long term.
I think shorting the 10yr and 20yr bonds, might be a great trade over the next 6 months. I think the start of the move might take a little bit to play out, but should really gain steam from March onwards.
Let's see what happens over the coming months.
New high in yields by November?I don't think anyone is expecting this, but I think we're setup for yields to hit new highs this year.
The chart indicates yields are breaking out to the upside again, and this move could be a strong one.
I think we're setting up to see a new high in yields by November topping somewhere between 5.35%-6.40%.
Let's see if it plays out.
US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" (...who will win?)Hello Traders!
The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation.
Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion?
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$US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out"The TVC:US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out as we observed a scenario where the momentum indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), had been showing bearish divergence with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. This indicated a potential weakening of the yield's upward momentum, despite higher prices initially. Subsequently, the divergence 'played out' as the 10-year Treasury yield indeed reversed its upward trend, aligning with the bearish divergence signal. This divergence resolution may have led to a shift in market sentiment or investment strategies, impacting various sectors and asset classes."
$US10Y Negative Divergence RSITVC:US10Y Negative Divergence RSI The TVC:US10Y showcases a negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicates that while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield might be increasing, the momentum behind this rise is weakening. Historically, such divergences in the RSI can signal potential trend reversals or price corrections in the near future. Investors and traders should be cautious and closely monitor subsequent price actions and other technical indicators to validate this potential divergence.
$US10Y Reaches 16 Year High, Short-Term Forecast & DiscussionThe TVC:US10Y has been extremely bullish since May 2023, and has gained more strength after the Fed's hawkish announcement that led to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. The TVC:US10Y has broke through numerous resistance levels to reach its 16-year high. From a technical analysis perspective, the TVC:US10Y has a tendency to have strong bullish rallies with breaks above the Bollinger Band (marked by yellow lines). We are observing that scenario in the current bonds market. There is a likelihood that the rally continues for a few more weeks (approximately 1-4 weeks). However, I think the TVC:US10Y and bonds market are due for a correction back down to the EMA ribbon. A strong bond market hurts equities because investors perceive TVC:US10Y as a less riskier investment alternative. This is hurting SP:SPX in the short term, but a peaking TVC:US10Y could also signal the bottom of the SP:SPX correction at current levels. For now investors are waiting for Friday's jobs data after the Tuesday JOLTS job openings data came in worse than expected.
Golds Future? Will the future gold price predict the peak in rates by a year like it did in 1980?
Lense through which I look at gold: Gold is insurance for my/my children's purchasing power in the future. No one likes to purchase insurance (home, auto, life, income, purchasing power?) but we do to protect our future interests.
Gold-
Up Arrow
1958- $35
1980- $888- peak
Horizontal Arrow
1980- $888
1999- $255- bottom
2008- $888- completed cycle
Up Arrow
2008- $888
2011- $1826- New ATH
Horizontal Arrow
2011- $1826
2015- $1055- Bottom
2020- $1826- Cycle complete
Up Arrow?
10Yr-
Up Arrow
1958- 3.3%
1980- 13%-- Peak next year at 15.7%
Down Arrow
1980- 13%
1999- 5.9% mid point in decline
2008- 3.5%
Down Arrow
2008- 3.5%
2011- 1.7%
Down Arrow
2011- 1.7%
2015- 2.3%
2020- .5% likely bottom
Up Arrow?
Knock Knock Who is there? it is me, US10Y 4.2%Knock knock.
Who's there?
I. O.
I. O. who?
Me.
When are you paying Treasury holders back?
Never!
Bullish Breakout ...to be continued...
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
US 10-Yr Govt Bond Yield | Has the rate ripe for a decline?US10YR has been rising after the completion of what looks to be an expanding leading diagonal wave A and currently now may be in terminal level for the corrective wave B which could possibly reach at or below 4%.
The yield is often related to the USDJPY pair and it is noticeably mimicing the pairs growth since its last drop from 129 level to current's 134.
The precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) too was hurt because of this rising yield from 1959 last high to as low as 1818 as of this posting.
We may possibly expect a shift in this market direction once the yield starts to cool down from its rise and can therefore be use as an added conviction for the Gold's bullish reversal.
@marketpainterph
#elliottwave
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#XAUUSD
#GOLD
#US10YR
10 Yr Bonds - Yields Close to an Intermediate Low10 Year bond yields closing in on a wave 4 low.
I would expect some sort of base building price action before the next leg up. This will provide clarity on the projected completion of this 5 wave pattern.
Yields have recently dropped in a flight to safety surrounding the bank failure panic. Does the stabilization of yields signal that crisis easing? Will the rise in yields negatively or positively impact stocks? What about the dollar, crude oil, gold.... All of these markets are at a transition point. This is a common phenomenon in March... history repeating?
The (4) Four Charts I am watching closely todayPull these charts up on your radar. They are key. With today’s spike on the VIX, we may see key resistance and support lines break. If any one of these critical trendlines/levels are broken, much more caution is warranted on the long side. Let’s quickly run through the charts I am observing.
DXY - A break to the upside of that macro uptrend (with confirmation on the daily) indicates a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar price must be calculated into current stock prices, weakening the current stock momentum.
US500 - Testing that Macro Uptrend as support. A break below may indicate further downside (pending FED language following FOMC press conference).
US Treasuries - Both the 10 year and the 2 year are pushing up against resistance. A break to the topside would indicate that the FED will continue its aggressive rate hikes strategy to tackle inflation. The dollar will follow with strength. The markets will depress even further. Crypto will follow. Treasuries seem to indicate that the FED will continue its aggression against inflation. We must pay attention closely to those purple lines/levels.
Also to note, Bitcoin is up against its 200-week ma. I don’t see that be broken immediately without some setback prior. The Bitcoin price battle with the 200 weekly ma may be the earliest indicator we have to what might follow in the next few days/weeks.
As always, be cautious. Don’t bite too hard on these last few weeks of bullish price action. Dollar-cost average yourself in. Place those stops. And best of luck to you all!
Stew
US10Y SELLWelcome to my account. There is a high probability that the market will go down. With a strong model formation. Double button. He also made the area retest twice. The price fails to breach the broken resistance 3.900. I think the price will be negative over time. And we see its price is 3500. In the first stage
GOLD SHORT TO 1760 - 1730📉This here is a sell to buy trade. We are catching the retracement on Gold (Wave 2), before re-entering more sell positions from the supply zone & targeting new high's around $2,160 - $2,240.
Want to keep up to date with the analysis. Drop a like, follow and let me know what you think👇🏽
US 10 year yield formation relative to SPXThe US10Y is forming an interesting pattern that suggests a move higher is likely. I decided to compare the general trend movement to that of SPX. The green arrows represent my future base case. However, should the US10Y break to the upside of its current pattern now, the blue arrows represent that. The future picture is always fuzzy, but I’m estimating US10Y is around 4.5% and SPX around 3580 in March/April.
USA need to cover chart and US10Y told us why?As we can see on chart long term dynamic trend line broke and after a short correction on US10Y, we should be ready to bull run up to 5% and that is a top range of long time coverage for US10Y, Hope not to see more up and I think we will start another range time box as shown.
Boxes 1 and 2; some how have same time range but most of time the chart fluctuated in range boxes 3 ( range 3.1% to 5.6%) and I think it is time to start another range box 3 ?!
Are U.S. Yield Curve Inversions Signaling 2023 Recession? Looking at the Inverted Yield Curve Chart s of the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 3mo Treasury (US10Y - US03M), along with the U.S. 10yr Treasury vs. U.S. 2yr Treasury (US10Y - US02Y) — are yields signaling a topping process? Or, should we even higher yields into 23'?
4-Hour Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊
Top Chart: US10Y - US03M
Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y
Daily Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊
Top Chart: US10Y - US03M
Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y
Weekly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊
Top Chart: US10Y - US03M
Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y
Monthly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊
Top Chart: US10Y - US03M
Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y
Monthly Inverted Yield Curve Chart 📊
Bottom Chart: US10Y - US02Y
U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. SPY (SPX ES1!) 📊
Black Line: SPY
Blue Line: US02Y Inverted
U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. QQQ (NQ Nasdaq) 📊
Black Line: QQQ
Blue Line: US02Y Inverted
U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. DIA (Dow Jones Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA) 📊
Black Line: DIA
Blue Line: US02Y Inverted
U.S. 2yr Treasury (Inverted) vs. IWM (Russell 2000 Russell Small Caps RUT) 📊
Black Line: IWM
Blue Line: US02Y Inverted
Do you think that yields have reached their peak for this Federal Reserve tightening cycle here in late 22'? Or, will we see further rises in yields, putting more pressure on risk assets in the new year (23')? 👇🏼
Yield Curve Inversion Chart Template 📊👇🏼
www.tradingview.com
Inverted U.S. 2yr Treasury Curve vs. Asset (SPY QQQ DIA IWM) Chart Template 📊👇🏼
www.tradingview.com