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Us10yr

short bondsUS 10year treasury bonds continue being bearish since we recently established a new downtrend, driven by the announcement of the FED to decrease QE. We currently saw a little bit of consolidation, we are now trading at trend resistance while oscillators at maximum, due to time cycles we will see a bearish continuation into february. Ps. bonds will deliver a 2% return at the end of 2024 according to rate hike plans if the FED, while inflation is around and will probably stay above 7 % , who wants to buy bonds in such an environment ? bonds would have to surely deliver a 5 % yoy gain in price. It will take a while to gain that confidence into bonds.
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by MrKrft
US10Y-D1-NICE MOVE...BUT !First 2022 trading day, triggered, yesterday a nice move; indeed, we say, on a daily basis, three important things : 1) breakout of the daily clouds resistance 2) Crossover of the Tenkan-Sen 3) Chikou-Span crossover of cluster Still one resistance level to break which is the ongoing downtrend line resistance and the former highs, respectively @ 1.7050% and 1.7740% In addition, on a weekly basis, the ongoing downtrend channel is still intact (next closing will, maybe, add more clues about further development); Watch shorter time frames as on H4, a failure to hold above 1.56%-1.55% would be the first warning signal of a potential reversal ! Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
US 10 YEARS - W1 - HARAMI !Last week price action triggered an "Harami" pattern, which is likely to trigger further sideways price action over the coming days ! Indeed, usually such kind of pattern, following a long black candle is normally bullish if the last candle is very small in comparison with the previous one, which is not the case now as the last weekly candle is pretty "big" which confirm some uncertainty about further development ! In addition, after having tested an intraweek low of 1.34% the week before, the 10 years recover again slightly above the top of the weekly clouds support which might be seen as a positive (yield) price action but... it is still below the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line, currently @ 1.52 % and upcoming price action this week and more important its closing level will give more clues for the future. Globally, the ongoing (yield) bearish downtrend is still in place and only a clear upside breakout of this downtrend channel top, currently @ 1.69%-1.70% would force to a view reassessment of the expected ongoing downside pressure calling for lower yield towards the bottom of the clouds support zone around 1.15% - 1.10 % which also coincides with the ongoing former uptrend support line, currently around 1.12 % and which also was the former lows reached on July-August. On a daily basis, watch the clouds resistance area and the Mid Bollinger band as a good barometer too a clear and sustainable breakout of those areas would be the first signal for further upside (yield). Have nice trading week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
3
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - GOLD - DOW JONES - BITCOIN - XLMUSDThings are still looking rather shaky across the board. Not much has changed since my last update but we are definitely starting to see a confluence of things taking place. The one thing that I am still very bullish on is GOLD. Whilst everything else takes a hit I believe GOLD will be repriced based on some underlying macro causes. I believe that this time it is different because of what I see potentially happening in the US 10YR Bond Yields. Inflation is rampant and will more than likely accelerate in the near future. For now I will keep an eye on these moves especially over the coming weeks. Check out previous related ideas linked below. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
CAPITALCOM:XLMUSD
by AriasWave
12
The US Bond Market Explained. You will hear many people in finance and in trading tell you that the bond market is the most important market to understand because it influences every other market in the world… particularly the US Bond market. 

In this video I am going to try and explain what the Bond market is for anyone new to trading or still learning about the bond market and then I will give you a prediction of where I think the market is moving next. 

All within 20 minutes because that’s the limit on TradingView videos.

I will try to keep the terminology as simple as possible and jargon free for people still learning about this market but if at all you want any further explanation on anything covered, simply drop a comment below and I will do my best to answer them all. Basics - Two main elements to the bond market… 

1) Bond prices “Called a premium”, simply, this is the price you pay to buy a bond.
 2) Bond Yields. These are how much interest you are paid on that bond and are described in percentage terms.

 As with any asset price, the prices of bonds are largely determined by supply and demand forces. 

 Typically, investors buy more bonds (and demand goes up) when the economy is projected to perform badly because bonds are regarded as one of the safest assets in the market.
 & 
Investors sell more bonds when they expect the economy to do well because they want to use that money to buy riskier assets such as stocks that will provide better returns in the economic good times. 

 These two elements in bonds are INVERSELY CORRELATED. 

 So when the Bond price goes up, the yield on offer goes down. 
& 
when the bond prices go down, the yield goes up. 

 Finally the last basic point to explain for anyone new to trading or the bond market is that the duration of the bond is also important to consider when analysing the bond market. 

The most common bond is the 10YR but there’s also 30YR bonds and 1YR bonds available and the duration of the bond is the amount of time that the “premium” is locked up for… after the duration the premium is then paid back to the investor. 

Each of these bonds durations perform differently depending on investors sentiments. So hopefully that has given a brief overview of what the bond market is and explained the basics of how it works. In the video above I explain the next steps that the bond market may have including projection 10YR yields of 3% or more to come! And the potentially dangerous consequences that could have for markets.
TVC:US10YEducation
by JoelWarby
3
US 10 YEARS -W1/D1 - DB TARGET @ 1.6500WEEKLY : Double bottom (@1.1270) gives a technical target @ 1.65 %; it has nearly been filled with a high so far @ 1.6150 Interesting to note that current level coincides with the former congestion top seen early this year between April and May. Therefore, this 1.6000/1.6500 area may this time trigger the second top and should be watch at very carefully ! DAILY : The upside breakout of the triangle pattern around 1.3900 which also coincided roughly with the daily top clouds triggered an upside acceleration with a small consolidation. Note the RSI which is currently in a bearish divergence mode (wait for confirmation) As long as the US 10 Y stays and hold above TS, it is fine for further upside towards former March high @ 1.774 (50 % Fib ret @ 1.8060) ... but a failure to do it, would directly put the focus on the next support level around 1.35/1.45 former resistance area which becomes now the new support zone. As usual, watch an monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames to get intermediate clues for the upcoming trading sessions. Have a nice week All the best Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848