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Us10yr_long

ridethepig | US 10Y Yields (Weekly)Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium term: On the technical side the same levels to track: Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32% Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95% In my books the impact of the virus is going to have a major impact on US GDP growth, tracking for 2% drag on Q1 growth. Chinese spending offshore is expected to drop by 0.6% (which is a conservative estimate). This is weighing on investor decision making as the impact will come through valuation changes rather than the earnings. If you are a believer in the virus having a short lived impact, then you can increase exposure on this dip in cyclicals and value companies. The industries hit hardest are airlines and travel with gaming to a lesser extent receiving a hit via Macao shutdowns. All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At SupportA quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand. The bounce from 1.50% support was widely expected, here noting the key levels for our map: Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32% Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95% What is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y which is where the biggest sharks are found, it is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of the weekly close looking soft and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Remember.. even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At 1.50 Support A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank: In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and volatile positioning. This change of cycle that I have mentioned usually crops up in Vol first: But what is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y, is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of this soft close and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises. All the best and thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | US10Y Moving HigherA timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense. We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply after the impressive sizings its time to start paying close attention for early signs of a breakout. While to the downside it would take a break of 1.675 to call for reassessment in the view. Those with a background in fixed income will know alarm bells are ringing louder than usual in bond markets with wages ticking higher than mortgage rates. This is not sustainable and when danger threatens and the crowd does not smell it, don't stand like a sheep, rather run like a deer. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Rate Differentials Chartpack A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously: For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence; Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in EURUSD: Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2019.13.12A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play. For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts): Steel Support => 1.65 Strong Support => 1.70 Soft Support => 1.78 Soft Resistance => 1.90 Strong Resistance => 1.98 Steel Resistance => 2.05 For those wanting to dig deeper into what and why we are trading these lows, it is the same swing as widely discussed in October: Best of luck all those in Fixed Income and in particular US Yields for the final months in 2019...a difficult environment to say the least. Highly recommend all to dig deeper into the macro picture built on Telegram and in the previous chart archives. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:US10YLong
by ridethepig
3
DXY and US10Y Divergence indicating SPX correctionThe 10Y yield has been falling since it peaked on the 5th of October and 8th of November 2018. On each leg down of the US10Y, ie; from the 8th of November till the 3rd of December 2018, from the 17th of April till the 3rd of June 2019 and from the 29th of July to the 8th of August 2019, the SPX has also correspondingly fallen. However, the DXY, which has been fairly steady, has started rising from the 18th of July. The DXY spiked on the 31st of July and that rise corresponds exactly with the drop of the SPX off ATH and also the sharp leg-down of the US10Y on the 31st of July. The Divergence between the DXY and US10Y is much wider at present than what it was when the SPX fell straight of the top from 3020 on the 31st of July. Also, another observation is that on the 30th of August, the DXY began to explode upwards. (DXY rising usually corresponds to a falling SPX). I think this sudden rise in the DXY is going to continue, and with it, the SPX will fall. The US10Y is already at 52 year record lows and I dont think it will fall much further; but as the DXY/US10Y Divergence increases, so will there be continued pressure on the SPX to correct downwards. I have set the chart Indexed to 100 in order to normalise the 3 curves.
SP:SPXShort
by supratimbarman
7
Long US 10year Treasury Bond $ZNWith WTI declining nearly %30 in a short time span and global growth slowing. Investors are long US TBONDS as they are willing to tolerate lower yields from bonds in anticipation of lower inflation and slowing growth. Bonds rising will have a wide ranging market influence. From yields falling, to equities under performing to Japanese investors seeking domestic risk investment and therefore halting capital exports. This will mark a turning point in the business cycle for month to come and will challenge active and passive investors and money managers to rethink their portfolios, possibly even rotate into other assets. We are still in the infancy of this turning point , tops and bottoms are ripe for picking.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by SpeculatorsTrading