Us10yr_trade
$US10Y Reaches 16 Year High, Short-Term Forecast & DiscussionThe TVC:US10Y has been extremely bullish since May 2023, and has gained more strength after the Fed's hawkish announcement that led to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. The TVC:US10Y has broke through numerous resistance levels to reach its 16-year high. From a technical analysis perspective, the TVC:US10Y has a tendency to have strong bullish rallies with breaks above the Bollinger Band (marked by yellow lines). We are observing that scenario in the current bonds market. There is a likelihood that the rally continues for a few more weeks (approximately 1-4 weeks). However, I think the TVC:US10Y and bonds market are due for a correction back down to the EMA ribbon. A strong bond market hurts equities because investors perceive TVC:US10Y as a less riskier investment alternative. This is hurting SP:SPX in the short term, but a peaking TVC:US10Y could also signal the bottom of the SP:SPX correction at current levels. For now investors are waiting for Friday's jobs data after the Tuesday JOLTS job openings data came in worse than expected.
US10Y SELLWelcome to my account. There is a high probability that the market will go down. With a strong model formation. Double button. He also made the area retest twice. The price fails to breach the broken resistance 3.900. I think the price will be negative over time. And we see its price is 3500. In the first stage
US10Y DropThe Daily timeframe is on a bearish ttrend and is making a pull back. The 4H has a double top and this confirms selling pressure. We are waiting for price to make a third touch of the trendline. This will hit out supply zone where we will wait for entry tiggers.
DeGRAM | US10Y short-term retracement US10Y has reached a major resistance zone 3.00% and it could go higher, resulting in a false break of that level.
There is an overbought condition on the D timeframe and US10Y is making lower lows on 4H.
We expect a short-term retracement.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
US 10 year yield, US 10Y The most important chart of all the markets is this little kid here.
This chart shows us the cost of US government borrowing which also means the strength of the US dollar as cash in the investors portfolio,
As we can see in this monthly graph that the government's 10-year borrowing yield is 3% (high going back to 2018 before COVID)
What is the meaning of this?
It means that the cash held by households, investors and institutions has reached its peak, as no one is buying and not investing and inflation has remained high and the Federal Reserve will target higher rates on the federal funds,
All this leads to increased risk appetite as bond yields may regress south + inflation starts to fall = real yield will approach 0% after being in negative territory.
The bear market will be over and risky assets like cryptocurrencies may welcome decent green days if not months.
*Note, if the 10-year US yield continues to rise to 5% and 6%, then we will see the euro, stocks, Japanese yen, as well as cryptocurrencies in the best place to buy them all
US10Y: U.S. 10 Year Treasury (Does inflation eat money?)There are two channels in a row on the chart. One of them is the Fibonacci Channels, while the horizontal ones are the Fibonacci Retracement.
The overlapping point of these two channels is 1.93% and we predict that we will reach this point in a short time.
Of course, we don't say this just by looking at the lines on the graph. With the latest incentive package, the money that will flow to the markets is obvious, and everybody says that inflation is coming. Growth in the US will be very strong, and this will inevitably result in deferred demand turning into a buying act ...
It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
ridethepig | 10Y Treasury Note📌 Yields are clearly hesitant to subscribe to the V shapers in Global Equities. An important observation in an extraordinarily difficult trading environment. The 0.90% - 0.50% range is clearly defined and from time to time we have had to get involved with a gentle grin and attempt to play both sides.
The 0.50% lows are 🔑 for this battlefield, as long as they are holding there is nothing to see to the downside. Losing the lows creates a freedom manoeuvre towards 0.17%. Otherwise all sellers are to be viewed as sacrifices and necessary in the basing formation. Expecting an eventual solution to the topside with 1.0% and 1.45% targets into 2020/2021.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback and charts coming 👍 or 👎
US 10y Treasuries- Bearish breakout. Bad omen for Stock market. US 10y Treasuries- Bearish breakout. Bad omen for Stock market. Bullish for Gold.
US 10yr- Symmetrical Triangle. US 10yr- Symmetrical Triangle.
60% probability of Upward breakout (40% downward).
From Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopaedia of chart patterns based on over 1000 trades studied.
US10Y Daily Downside 0.57 12:38:23 (UTC) Mon May 4, 2020US10Y Daily Downside 0.57
12:38:23 (UTC) Mon May 4, 2020
US10yr Yield Short Entry - 12:55:26 (UTC) Tue Apr 14, 2020US10yr Yield Short Entry
- 12:55:26 (UTC) Tue Apr 14, 2020
ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2020.04.10An important chart update for all early and late cycle players, the lows in US10Y Yields are not yet locked and this is holding the window open for a final leg to the downside cooking in Global Equities and risk markets.
A lot of buying interest in bonds towards 0.85 / 1.00 highs which will be enough to keep the downtrend in pay. I am looking for a full ABC completion from a strictly technical sense to complete the pattern. It will make things a lot easier for later in the year / into 2021 (and beyond).
On the map a very simple area to track:
Steel Resistance 0.89 <=> Strong Resistance 0.77 <=> Soft Resistance 0.69 <=> Mid-Point FLIP 0.6 0 <=> Soft Support 0.48 <=> Strong Support 0.39 <=> Steel Support 0.30
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc... jump in with your questions and views!
ridethepig | Historic Moves In Yields !An insane move across Yields with historic outflows, I am expecting some relief over the coming weeks but we the lows are still open for a 5th wave sequence. This target will worryingly come into play at 0.20x! We have intentionally covered the Credit Spreads together here in order to see what is "challenging" in the US economy:
Such compensation is frequently that the recession is forced as the economy ends up in some wilderness. Such an environment is however transformed into a garden of Eden if the transition away from Protectionist Public Sector flows and Governments is opened. The following examples will make my meaning crystal clear:
After VIX exploded 250% !!! via coronavirus triggering the immediate mistake occurred in Monetary policy which sent shockwaves across all main markets. The Fed capitulating is a major blow to Central Banking independence, because the Whitehouse mismanagement and fiscal policies are being funded in broad daylight by Powell. The crossroads between a higher stock market and a higher dollar was always going to trigger the next round of easing and QE.
Of course, Yields can be bought after the lows are set but that takes time. But buyers have no worries, since with a solid centre a loose Rates market is easy enough to defend. Even more than that, Fed's "Loose Gambit" will turn into a slow moving but safe instrument of attack on USD:
And now that we have to some extent defined the logic between the wilderness markets are walking into via the demand and supply shock vis a vis the monetary policy measures referred to at the start of the segment.
For the technicals 🗺
Steel Support 0.72 <=> Strong Support 0.81 <=> Soft Support 0.85 <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 1.08 <=> Strong Resistance 1.17 <=> Steel Resistance 1.24
It is extremely important to track this chart and understand that markets challenging Central Banks, though it apparently only looks like a spiteful play, in fact represents a problem in the underlying structure of protectionism in the US.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling!
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields (Weekly)Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium term:
On the technical side the same levels to track:
Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32%
Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95%
In my books the impact of the virus is going to have a major impact on US GDP growth, tracking for 2% drag on Q1 growth. Chinese spending offshore is expected to drop by 0.6% (which is a conservative estimate). This is weighing on investor decision making as the impact will come through valuation changes rather than the earnings. If you are a believer in the virus having a short lived impact, then you can increase exposure on this dip in cyclicals and value companies. The industries hit hardest are airlines and travel with gaming to a lesser extent receiving a hit via Macao shutdowns.
All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields At SupportA quick update that I will try to keep relatively short for those charting the US10Y we have important updates after markets struggled to shake off risks from China. The support in Yields is starting to form a bullish basing pattern, although the medium term structure is weaker the immediate horizon looks strong and stable above the 1.50 line in the sand.
The bounce from 1.50% support was widely expected, here noting the key levels for our map:
Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32%
Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95%
What is typical of the big leagues, and this of course is no exception in US10Y which is where the biggest sharks are found, it is and will remain advanced playing fields for advanced swing traders only. Retail making use of the weekly close looking soft and betting on the continuation will provide the fuel for a spike as they cover and become trapped in a squeeze. Remember.. even when smart money appears to have a gun pointed at the head, it always finds the time to mass his troops in defence (now you see why this weekend was vital!!!!)... If you are keen to learn, you should model yourself around these premises.
All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
ridethepig | US10Y Moving HigherA timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense.
We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply after the impressive sizings its time to start paying close attention for early signs of a breakout. While to the downside it would take a break of 1.675 to call for reassessment in the view.
Those with a background in fixed income will know alarm bells are ringing louder than usual in bond markets with wages ticking higher than mortgage rates. This is not sustainable and when danger threatens and the crowd does not smell it, don't stand like a sheep, rather run like a deer.
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
On the fly...For those tracking the latest round of Fixed Income chart updates we have the final leg to the stool ahead right on time for NY. You will notice that on the back-end of the curve there is loud messages of a meaningful top being placed. The technical breakdown is indicating that we have another round of flattening towards key support at 32bps.
For the Chartpack today we have...
US 2s5s Curve :
US 2s10s Curve :
US 2s5s Curve:
The maps are crystal clear for US10Y Yields:
Highly recommend all those tracking Fixed Income to make note of the 2s5s10s and 2s5s30s " Fly " both breaking out with markets positioning ahead for 2020. Thanks for keeping all the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle and Fixed Income.
ridethepig | Rate Differentials Chartpack A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously:
For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence;
Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in EURUSD:
Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2019.13.12A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play.
For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts):
Steel Support => 1.65
Strong Support => 1.70
Soft Support => 1.78
Soft Resistance => 1.90
Strong Resistance => 1.98
Steel Resistance => 2.05
For those wanting to dig deeper into what and why we are trading these lows, it is the same swing as widely discussed in October:
Best of luck all those in Fixed Income and in particular US Yields for the final months in 2019...a difficult environment to say the least. Highly recommend all to dig deeper into the macro picture built on Telegram and in the previous chart archives.
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
US 10yr Treasury YieldHuge move down starting late '18 to early Sep '19 (from 3.25% to 1.43%). Whist overall the US 10 yr yield will likely fall over time, a short term retracement bounce to 1.86%, then possibly 2.125%.
