US10Y SELLWelcome to my account. There is a high probability that the market will go down. With a strong model formation. Double button. He also made the area retest twice. The price fails to breach the broken resistance 3.900. I think the price will be negative over time. And we see its price is 3500. In the first stage
Us10yrs
USA need to cover chart and US10Y told us why?As we can see on chart long term dynamic trend line broke and after a short correction on US10Y, we should be ready to bull run up to 5% and that is a top range of long time coverage for US10Y, Hope not to see more up and I think we will start another range time box as shown.
Boxes 1 and 2; some how have same time range but most of time the chart fluctuated in range boxes 3 ( range 3.1% to 5.6%) and I think it is time to start another range box 3 ?!
US10YEARS-W1/D1- ONGOING UPSIDE MOVE !WEEKLY (W1)
Following the breakout which occured a couple of weeks ago, we can identify a sideways/up consolidation price action.
Indeed, a natural pullback took place which has been rejected by the former downtrend line resistance which became now the
new support area (currently around 1.67 %) and slightly below the Tenkan-Sen (@ 1.7080 %) which should be seen as the first significant support level
in this weekly time frame.
A SHOOTING STAR took place last week, but the ongoing price action (above it, for the time being and of course should be confirmed on the next weekly closing)
could invalidate such kind of pattern which, usually is a warning of a trend reversal !
The TRIANGLE PATTERN gives a technical target @ 2.3230 %.
ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE CLUSTER SUPPORT OF TS, KS, MBB (1.7080 %-1.6280 % WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THIS EXPECTED BULLISH (YIELD) SCENARIO !
DAILY (D1)
Last Friday's price action triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN which confirm A BEARISH DIVERGENCE and which should not be underestimated; nevertheless, the last daily closing level was still above the Tenkan-Sen, which for the
time being is still supportive for further upside.
Therefore, in this daily time frame, watch carefully at the following supports levels :
S1 : 1.9020 %
S2 : 1,8780%
S3 : 1.8560% (The Barometer !)
A failure to hold above S3 would open the door for the daily clouds support area (1.70%-1.60%) which corroborate the weekly view as 1.60% should be seen as a KEY PIVOT LEVEL, strategically speaking.
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Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
US10Y: U.S. 10 Year Treasury (Does inflation eat money?)There are two channels in a row on the chart. One of them is the Fibonacci Channels, while the horizontal ones are the Fibonacci Retracement.
The overlapping point of these two channels is 1.93% and we predict that we will reach this point in a short time.
Of course, we don't say this just by looking at the lines on the graph. With the latest incentive package, the money that will flow to the markets is obvious, and everybody says that inflation is coming. Growth in the US will be very strong, and this will inevitably result in deferred demand turning into a buying act ...
It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
Pattern suggests post-coronavirus risk stabilization?
After the initial dropoff, there has been a rebound, with sequentially smaller-amplitude bounces going forward in a wedge pattern, suggesting markets are rightfully optimistic, or lulled into a false sense of hope, about stemming widespread contagion :)
US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield US10Y 1.5925 14 Feb '20 17:45
ridethepig | US 10Y Yields (Weekly)Markets are focused on three topics this week: (i) The 4Q 2019 Earnings season, (ii) coronavirus spillover concerns and (iii) Sanders performance in Caucuses. In US Yields the picture is crystal clear on the Long-term chart, for those following the 1.50% support level we are tracking on the daily you will note where the strength in defence comes from in the medium term:
On the technical side the same levels to track:
Support : 1.50% / 1.45% / 1.32%
Resistance : 1.68% / 1.75% / 1.95%
In my books the impact of the virus is going to have a major impact on US GDP growth, tracking for 2% drag on Q1 growth. Chinese spending offshore is expected to drop by 0.6% (which is a conservative estimate). This is weighing on investor decision making as the impact will come through valuation changes rather than the earnings. If you are a believer in the virus having a short lived impact, then you can increase exposure on this dip in cyclicals and value companies. The industries hit hardest are airlines and travel with gaming to a lesser extent receiving a hit via Macao shutdowns.
All the best guys, and as usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!!
ridethepig | US10Y Moving HigherA timely update to the 10yr US Bond Yields chart as we enter into NFP territory. I am still expecting to see further upside with a strong bid in 1H20. Targeting the 38.2% retracement which coincides with the cluster of macro stops makes sense.
We come up against the last case in variation for the move, erroneously described as a surrender. To put simply after the impressive sizings its time to start paying close attention for early signs of a breakout. While to the downside it would take a break of 1.675 to call for reassessment in the view.
Those with a background in fixed income will know alarm bells are ringing louder than usual in bond markets with wages ticking higher than mortgage rates. This is not sustainable and when danger threatens and the crowd does not smell it, don't stand like a sheep, rather run like a deer.
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
ridethepig | Rate Differentials Chartpack A rather quick update here as markets find a floor rate differentials as widely anticipated. It is no surprises for those following the chart previously:
For the technicals, those with a background in waves will know this is a textbook example of an ABC correction after a 5 wave sequence;
Things are a lot clearer in the FX board as we begin the flows in EURUSD:
Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
ridethepig | US10Y Market Commentary 2019.13.12A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play.
For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts):
Steel Support => 1.65
Strong Support => 1.70
Soft Support => 1.78
Soft Resistance => 1.90
Strong Resistance => 1.98
Steel Resistance => 2.05
For those wanting to dig deeper into what and why we are trading these lows, it is the same swing as widely discussed in October:
Best of luck all those in Fixed Income and in particular US Yields for the final months in 2019...a difficult environment to say the least. Highly recommend all to dig deeper into the macro picture built on Telegram and in the previous chart archives.
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!