US10Y: Rejection at the top of the 1W Channel Down. Prime short.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield may still be bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 59.113, MACD = 0.016, ADX = 38.613), but this week's candle is getting rejected at the top of the 1 year Channel Down. If it closes in red it will be the first in almost 2 months and a clear technical signal that a bearish reversal has started. The 1W RSI has also started to reverse. As a consequence, we are turning bearish on the US10Y as of now, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 3.480) where the previous LL was formed.
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Us10ytrading
US10Y: Channel Up intact but first time on a Bearish Divergence.US10Y continues to rise inside a long term Channel Up, with its 1D technical outlook bullish (RSI = 57.618, MACD = 29.942, MACD = 0.116). The 1D RSI though is for the first time in the recent months under a LH bearish divergence so for the first time the probabilities for a bearish reversal get stronger. Consequently, if the price crosses under the Channel's bottom, we will see and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 4.600). Until then, we will but on the first 1D candle that closes under the S1 level, aiming at a +10.70% rise (TP = 5.185).
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US10Y: Short term pullback ahead.The US10Y hit the top of the five month Channel Up, which started after a 5 time hold on the Support Zone, while the RSI shifted to LH (RSI = 68.642, MACD = 0.088, ADX = 56.354). Having completed a common +12% increase, we get the same sell signal as all prior Higher Lows. Our target is Fibonacci 0.5 (TP = 4.315%), highly likely on course for contact with the 1D MA50.
Prior idea:
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US10Y: Excellent long term sell opportunity.The US10Y turned neutral on the 1D timeframe today (RSI = 51.795, MACD = 0.074, ADX = 33.857) after it got rejected on R1 two days ago. It is likely to see a sharp fall as on the March 2nd rejection, and in that case S1 and S2 won't pose any bullish pressure to the downtrend, nor should the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which in the past 12 months haven't had any such significance.
Consequently, we consider the current level early enough for a low risk sell position on the long term, targeting the S3 (TP = 3.300%). As you see, the trading structure follows quite similar legs since November and right now we are most likely on a leg 2.
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US10Y: Prepare for a long term sell.The US10Y continues to trade inside the long term Channel Down since the October 21st High and has now formed the same peak formation as then. With the 1D time frame neutral (RSI = 45.126, MACD = 58.593, MACD = -0.280), the conditions have emerged for a new long term sell. If the previous -20% decline is repeated, then target the bottom of the Channel Down on a TP = 3.100.
Prior idea:
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