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Us2000

US equity traders playbook – all-time highs or a 10% drawdown?The pain trade in US equity markets remains to the upside, and with the US500 only 9% from the all-time highs, if we are to get test 4800 it will be because the bears fully capitulate. That is certainly a possibility, especially if the market strongly believes the Fed pause again in the July FOMC meeting. Subsequently, if the S&P500 breaks 4450/4500, it will be call options buyers and momentum (some FOMO) players that lead us further higher, as funds aggressively chase the market higher. We can scratch around for positive catalysts, and there are many we can point to; volatility remaining low, a mountain of cash still on the sidelines, the Fed potentially at peak rates, and China ramping up stimulus. However, the list of upside catalysts seems scarce relative to the list of tier 1 triggers that could feasibly lead to a 10% move lower. As we’ve learnt throughout 2022, an open mind will always serve you well, and a momentum-driven market is one not worth fighting, and positioning and flow mean everything. A checklist to assess the risk-to-reward trade-off When assessing the risk-to-reward trade-off, we can go into huge depth drawing up a varied checklist that can often lead to significant complications. These will include any or all, of the following: Liquidity, positioning, valuation, sentiment, technical indicators, options hedging activity, gamma exposure and breadth. They can all have a place in our understanding of where the skew of risk sits – price is, however, always the arbiter of truth. We can be early to a trade, but we must be able to handle drawdown, and in all cases, just knowing when to take a loss is key. Timing the market is key when trading with leverage, but so is knowing how to take a loss. At this juncture, positioning in US equity futures is rich, especially when we see the net long position of the highly influential CTAs (trend-following funds) and volatility-dynamic funds. We can see the market has cut portfolio hedges dramatically, with S&P 1-month ‘skew’ at the lowest levels since 2018 and the CBoE equity put/call ratio at 0.46x – the lowest since April 2022. Hedges cost money in a bull market. But when volatility ramps up, aggressive re-hedging can send risk lower. Valuation is rich, with the S&P500 trading on 20.2x forward earnings, and the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) at the lowest since 2002. This shows how little compensation investors get for taking on equity risk, so again this reduces the attractiveness of equity. Sentiment is near extremes – one can look at the CNN Fear and Greed index and see this moving to 79 – extreme levels, but again, one wouldn’t take a short position in the US500 or NAS100 on extreme sentiment in isolation, but it is a big consideration. Central bank balance sheets about to turn sharply lower Perhaps the biggest factor the bears have at the centre of their thesis is the expected turn lower in liquidity, and specifically an impending decline in the major central bank's balance sheets. The US is at the heart of this concern, where we know the Fed’s FWB:95B per month QT (Quantitative Tightening) is coming in late June. At the same time, the US Treasury’s massive net T-bill issuance to rebuild its depleted cash levels is about to ramp up. So far, the USTs bill issuance has been funded by capital from the Fed’s RRP facility, which is seen as a positive for US equity markets. However, the risk is now skewed that the TGA rebuild is to be funded by bank reserves - where falling reserves would be seen as a liquidity drain. EU banks are due to repay E470B in TLTRO loans at the end of June, and with QT playing out in Europe and the UK, the prospect of the aggregated global central bank balance sheets about to turn lower is a major risk - with well over $1t of liquidity due to come out of the market in the coming weeks. China is also a growing consideration, and we watch the price action in the HK50, CHINAH and USDCNH. China has started to ramp up its policy easing and support and has been increasing liquidity - but it has been underwhelming. Recall, Shanghai came out of lockdown in June, so the Chinese reopening data impulse is about to face serious headwinds – will the PBoC and govt be able to put the right mix in place to counter this weakness? Core inflation is an ongoing concern Another key risk markets are focused on is inflation. Central banks have made it clear their concern lies in targeting core (sticky) inflation and they are incredibly worried that inflation has become entrenched. We can look at the UK, NZ and Australia and see rising risks that the central banks may have to keep lifting rates and actually cause a recession to bring core inflation down to target. If we see core inflation readings stay firm, then this will be a big headwind for equity markets. An inflexion point The bottom line is we may be at a clear inflexion point for equity markets – either the central bank balance sheet rolls off and heads sharply lower in the coming weeks, and equity reacts with the US500 falling 5-10%, as per the bear's thesis. Or, prices remain firm despite the central bank balance sheet contraction. In which case, rising prices may see a capitulation from the bears, resulting in new highs playing out as momentum kicks in once more and funds chase into Q3. Which way do you see it playing out?
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
A Traders’ Playbook: China stimulus expectations lift sentimentLooking at the calendar for the week ahead and it’s a quiet affair by way of known event risks to catalyse. We have tier 1 idiosyncratic event risks, with the RBA and BoC meetings holding the potential for a 25bp hike respectively. However, I’d expect the central focus to remain on the USD, US rates pricing, US regional banks and whether we see a further positive flow into the HK50, CHINAH and CN50. Talk of fiscal support from the Chinese authorities have been making waves and on Friday it’s no surprise that we saw $3.18b net buying into China’s mainland equity markets, amid a 4% rally in the Chinese/HK equity indices – this supported EU and US equity sentiment, copper and the AUD found a better bid (notably vs the EUR and CHF). After a nirvana US nonfarm payrolls report (a strong level of job creation, amid softer wages and a higher unemployment rate) we now head into the Fed’s blackout period, with the market favourable to the Fed leaving rates unchanged next week but signalling a strong bias to hike again. Next week’s US CPI print could alter the consensus view of a Fed ‘skip’, but with the core of the Fed leaning to a pause – for now, this is supporting risk and we roll into the new week with the bulls on top. Digging further into the equity move and breadth was solid on Friday with 92% of stocks closing higher, led by materials, industrial and energy, but the chase is on – FOMU (Fear of Meaningfully Underperforming) is a factor, few want to sell, portfolio hedges are being unwound rapidly and it was momentum frenzy, with the 0DTE crowd have a large hand in this chase higher. There is a heightened focus on the US Treasury Department starting to tap the market to rebuild its low cash balances – we get 3 sizeable US T-bill sales this week equating to $173b, so the eyes of the market will be whether this is supported by bank reserves or RRP balances. Again, US banks will be keenly watched (put the KRE ETF on the radar), because if bank reserves prove to be the larger support of T-bill issuance it may start to weigh on sentiment here. Finally, crude saw a 2.6% rally on Friday, largely due to a solid rally in China’s markets. Some would have been covering shorts ahead of the weekend OPEC meeting. However, those running longs would be heartened at the news the Saudis will reduce output by an additional 1m bpd. The news flow on potential China stimulus and the tape in its equity markets will continue to dictate how crude trades - but clearly, the Saudis want a crude price above $80 and a steeper backwardation in the futures curve. Keep an eye on the CAD, and NOK as tradeable crude proxies. Marquee event risk for the week ahead RBA meeting (Tues 14:30 AEST) – We could be looking at a lively RBA meeting with the market pricing a 50% chance of a hike. There is greater conviction from economists with 17 of 25 economists (surveyed by Bloomberg) calling for a pause. Market positioning is mixed, with asset managers running a sizeable AUD short position, while fast-money leveraged funds are progressively long of AUD. RBA action will likely have a short-lived impact on the AUD before it reverts to a tradeable proxy of China data and moves in the HK50 and CHINAH. Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting (8 June 00:00 AEST) – BoC meetings here have been predictable affairs of late, but there is some uncertainty at this meeting – it’s a risk event to consider for CAD traders. The interest rate markets price a 44% chance of a 25bp hike, although the economist community are far more certain with only 6 of 31 (surveyed by Bloomberg) calling for the hike. Into the meeting, the risk for the CAD seems skewed to the downside, where the BoC likely hold and guide to a hike in July conditional on a hot employment report. China trade balance (Wed - no set time) – the market looks for a further lift in the trade surplus to $94.15b. To get to this increase surplus exports are expected to decline by 2%, while imports are expected to decline by 8%. A key data point given the impact China is having on market sentiment, but this is so incredibly hard to forecast, that the market is conditioned to be shocked. China CPI/PPI inflation (Friday 11:30 AEST) – The market expects CPI to come in at 0.2% YoY and PPI at -4.2% YoY. With elevated expectations of imminent policy easing from the PBoC, we’d need to see a blowout upside print to reduce expected policy easing calls. Bad news (i.e. lower inflation) should only further increase policy-easing expectations and prove to be good news for the HK50 and the AUD. China new yuan loans (no set time) - the market looks for new loans to increase to RMB1570b (from RMB718b). With calls for renewed economic stimulus, I expect credit data to start reflecting this going forward to rise from here. I don’t expect the May credit data to move markets too intently unless it’s a substantial beat/miss. US ISM services (Tues 00:00 AEST) – the market looks for the diffusion index to rise to 52.4 (from 51.9). In a quiet week of US economic data, the services ISM report has the potential to influence market sentiment. However, after both Fed chair Powell and VC Jefferson recently leaning towards a pause (or a skip), it’s hard to see this moving rate expectations for the June FOMC meeting too intently. The US CPI print (due 13 June) is the likely decider on whether the Fed pause or hike. Canada May employment report (Tues 22:30 AEST) – the market expects 25k net new jobs to have been created in May, with the unemployment rate eyed at 5.1% (from 5%). The form guide suggests a higher probability of a beat, with the last 8 employment reports coming in above expectations. Momentum in USDCAD is lower and we see good support into 1.3330. Rates Review – we look at market pricing of interest rate expectations and the cumulative number of hikes/cuts (in basis points) for each upcoming meeting. For example, we see 10bp of hikes (a 40% chance of a hike) priced for the June FOMC meeting, but 9bp of cuts to have been implemented by December. Central bank speakers to navigate: Fed speakers – the Fed are in a blackout period until the FOMC meeting (14 June), so we can breathe a little easier. ECB speakers – we hear from Lagarde, Nagel, Guindos, Panetta, Guindos, De Cos, Centeno – EU rates markets price 24bp of hikes for the 15 June ECB meeting, and a peak rate of 3.66% by October. RBA speakers – RBA gov Phil Lowe speaks the day after the RBA meeting (Wed 09:20 AEST). RBA deputy gov Michele Bullock speaks shortly after (Wed 09:50 AEST)
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
US2000 H4 | Close to 61.8% Fibo resistanceUS2000 is rising towards a key overlap resistance and could potentially reverse from this level. Price could hit our sell entry at 1753.37 and drop down from here. Our stop loss will be at 1766.20 which is an overlap resistance. The take profit level will be at 1729.46 which is a recent swing-low. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:US2000Short
by Rockqet
US2000 H4 | Rising into resistance?US2000 is rising towards a key overlap resistance and potentially reverse from this level. Price could hit our sell at 1764.48 and drop down from here. Our stop loss will be at 1785.23 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The take profit level will be at 1736.55 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:US2000Short
by Genesiv
Looking for a US2000 rally.RUSS2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1855 (stop at 1875) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Price action looks to be forming a bottom. A higher correction is expected. Our short term bias remains negative. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 1795 and 1765 Resistance: 1870 / 1910 / 2025 Support: 1815 / 1765 / 1720 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by OANDA
US2000 being a good market buy?RUSS2000 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1910 (stop at 1890) Selling pressure from 1939 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Previous support located at 1900. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 1965 and 2025 Resistance: 1960 / 2025 / 2095 Support: 1910 / 1870 / 1815 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:US2000USDLong
by OANDA
Fadig into US2000 early optimism.RUSS2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1935 (stop at 1955) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A lower correction is expected. Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. The hourly chart technicals suggests further upside before the downtrend returns. We look to sell rallies. Our profit targets will be 1875 and 1840 Resistance: 1910 / 1960 / 2025 Support: 1870 / 1815 / 1765 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by OANDA
US Small Cap 2000 - Bears are in controlUS2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1785 (stop at 1805) Buying pressure from 1720 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 1730 and 1630 Resistance: 1780 / 1830 / 1875 Support: 1725 / 1630 / 1530 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
UShort
by VantageMarkets
US Small Cap 2000 - Bears are in controlUS Small Cap 2000 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1790 (stop at 1810) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 1730 and 1630 Resistance: 1780 / 1830 / 1875 Support: 1725 / 1630 / 1555 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
UShort
by VantageMarkets
Trader thoughts - a rush to de-risk hits the tapeAsia found some form yesterday with further reopening measures announced and the H-Share cash index closing +5.3% - USDCNH traded aggressively down to 6.9300, and for the most part found buyers hard to come by but the reversal higher from the start of US cash trade has been impressive. A rush to broadly de-risk portfolios has hit the tape hard, with S&P500 futures cracking through mid-European trade and accelerating with traders seeing better US data in the form of factory orders (+1%), durable goods (1.1%) and ISM services (56.5 vs 53.5 expected) – some are arguing that good news is bad news for risky markets as it means the Fed have more work to do to bring US growth below trend – clearly there is merit there, but then I’d argue after the recent run the market was looking for a reason to de-risk anyhow. While the US500 sits -2%, we see small caps really underperforming, with the US2000 -2.8% and breadth is certainly a red flag with 95% of stocks in the S&P500 lower on the day – consumer discretionary, energy and financials lead the market lower and defensive names – while lower – are outperforming. While some cry that US bonds were already rich, we can see a solid sell-off in US Treasuries, with 2’s +12bp and with inflation expectations falling a touch US 5yr real rates are up a lofty 18bp. Much focus has been placed on the US interest rates curve, where the market has been pricing a notable degree of rate cuts for 2H23 – on the day we’ve seen 6bp of cuts come out for this pricing, with the market now pricing 47bp of cuts for this period. The moves in rates and US bonds have promoted a mini-USD revival, with the DXY +0.8% and the USD higher vs all G10 FX - commodity traders have slammed silver (-4%) and XAU sits -1.7% where both are seeing solid short-term profit taking and kickback after a strong run. Equity traders move to buy back USDs as a hedge against sustained equity drawdown, although in the volatility space the VIX is up +2 vols at 21.15% and the US equity put/call ratio has lifted a touch to 0.76. High beta FX has been sold most aggressively with MXN, NOK, and NZD under pressure – The JPY finds sellers, once again reinforcing its sensitivity to US 2yr Treasuries, and as we know equity lower and bond yields higher results in JPY weakness. AUDUSD has traded a 0.6851 to 0.6698 range on the day and sits at session lows – while taking some direction from the moves in the CNH (offshore yuan), we look at today's RBA meeting and question the possibility of intraday volatility – the market leans towards a 25bp hike as the base case, but pricing suggests there are risks of a 15bp hike – the idea that this meeting could be the one where we hear of an extended pause is doing the rounds, although in some capacity the RBA won't want to box themselves in given the next meeting is not until February and they’ll want to give themselves a degree of flexibility. We ask where the balance of risk sits – for me, the easier trade is to look to fade intraday rallies into 0.6760/70, although that would be quite the move. Elsewhere the event risk is subdued over the coming 24 hours – there is limited data and no central bank speeches in the EU, UK, or US. It offers a chance for traders to cut out the data and do what they do best, focus on price and react accordingly and right now that flow is turning progressively towards a de-risking – let's see if the bear move gets legs – China needs to come to the party and turn this around.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Pepperstone
Jamie Gun2Head Idea - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000 Reasoning: Some RSI divergence being seen, looking for some window dressing by hedge funds and a move higher today! Entry Level: 1694 Take Profit Level: 1750 Stop Loss: 1667 Risk/Reward: 2.07:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:US2000Long
by Signal_Centre
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000 Reasoning: Oversold RSI on the daily, looks to be putting in a short term bottom Entry Level: 1685.0 Take Profit Level: 1759.0 Stop Loss: 1661.0 Risk/Reward: 3.08:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:US2000Short
by Signal_Centre
US200 - long term SHORT with short term LONG reversalsLooking at the Weekly on the US200. The probability is that this market is a bear market. With this in mind we are looking for areas of possible reversals. If we look at the retracements of the last swing higher (March 2020 - November 2021) we see the market had a reversal at the 382 abnd the 50%. Both reversals reaching the top of our range boxes. From here we look for a reversal at the next level of 618 (15500 area). If the market falls to the 618 it will also mean a double bottom (with Nov 2020) and a 1.272 ext of the current swing that is projected to reach the 618. See 3rd yellow circle. At this point we can judge the price action for a possible revesal from the 1530 price area up to 1700 area. Looking further afield the another possible reversal will be at the 707 which is also confluent with the 1.618 extension and 0.5 retracement of the big swing higher (Marck 2009 - November 2021). So back to today, can we short down to the 1550 area? On the Daily we see the Market broke below the resistance at 1903. The Short was at the re-test of this 9blue circle). It re-tested two days in a row. So we had two chances here. Should themarket give us a third opportunity we can then short. Otherwise we wait for anotehr possible ressitance zone at 1800 area. Keep a eye out.....
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by enzenator
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Buying US2000Trade Idea: Buying US2000 Reasoning: RSI bullish divergence, looking for a bounce on indices today! Entry Level: 1789 Take Profit Level: 1829 Stop Loss: 1776 Risk/Reward: 3.08:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:US2000Long
by Signal_Centre
Prefer to fade into the rally on US2000USDUS2000USD0 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1860 (stop at 1895) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 1775 and 1760 Resistance: 1815 / 1830 / 1840 Support: 1800 / 1790 / 1775 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by OANDA
Selling rallies on US2000USDUS2000USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1880 (stop at 1910) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at oversold extremes. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 1790 and 1730 Resistance: 1830 / 1935 / 2025 Support: 1785 / 1730 / 1640 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:US2000USDShort
by OANDA
Jamie Gun2Head Trade - Selling US2000Trade Idea: Selling US2000 Reasoning: Looking for selloff to extend - targeting 61.8% fib level Entry Level: 1989.0 Take Profit Level: 13512.0 Stop Loss: 1953.0 Risk/Reward: 2.77:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:US2000Short
by Signal_Centre