US2000 is on bullish momentum! | 9th March 2022Prices are on bullish momentum. We se the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 1924.02 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 2078.79 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection. Our bullish bias is further supported by RSI depicting bullish momentum.
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Us2000
RUSSEL 2000: DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION IN BEARISH CHANNEL| SHORT Bigger isn't always better.
Case in point: Lots of trading desks are locked in on the dramatic underperformance of the small-cap Russell 2000 Index amid the bounce-back in broader stocks from the late January lows. The Russell 2000 — which is often viewed a proxy for the strength (or lack thereof) of the domestic economy — is down 10.5% this year compared to a 6% drop for the S&P 500 and 3.6% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 by 25 percentage points in the past 12 months, its worst 12-month relative return since 1999, notes Goldman Sachs' David Kostin.
"Decelerating GDP growth has been one headwind to the cyclical small-cap index. During the last 20 years, small-caps have lagged on average in periods when the yield curve was flattening, economic growth was strong but decelerating, or financial conditions were tightening," Kostin says.
Traders are now trying to determine whether the weakness in the Russell 2000 suggests another pullback in the markets is in the offing. After all, larger cap stocks are exposed to the same things (tightening financial conditions, higher interest rates, inflation, etc.) as smaller companies.
"The small cap Russell 2000 has been a “canary in the coal mine” for stocks for much of the past year — first warning softly as small cap momentum peaked along with other areas of euphoric sentiment in 1Q21 even as large caps continued to rise, and then more urgently as its breakdown from a year long range led the broader market lower. As stocks bounce from their January slide, though, small caps have shown signs of sputtering below their prior support. Floors can often become resistant when broken, and with the Russell 2000’s recent track record as a leading indicator for broader market weakness, we will be watching the reaction to this level closely. Failure would suggest further correction in stocks lies ahead, while a break above could indicate stabilization," explains Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel.
Of course, the Russell 2000 sucking wind could mean absolutely nothing to the S&P 500's next big move. No analysis is fool proof. Just file this under your "Things to Watch List," especially as the bulls begin to resurface and blow their normal smoke in your face.
Now go forth and conquer in what will be another mentally draining week of corporate earnings. Happy trading!
THE 'WHY' OF SINKING BITCOIN | JUNKIES ASSET CLASSES WITHDRAWAL The economy of Junkies Asset Classes
Published in early 2022, this is actually our forecast for the price of Bitcoin at that time.. You can check it on our medium for verification. Our fundamental compilation on bitcoin and asset classes in general and a pragmatical content, not married to ideals on both sides bulls and bears while the market is dynamic.
Several shifts happening in the market environment, the core fundamental point is:
Inflation overshoot in the global economy
The end of pandemic fear
Hawkish Fed and the shift to tightening policies
These main theme changes will have a significant impact on asset classes. Including Bitcoin, which is one of the top asset class performances back in 2021 (see the infographic on the post image). Let's get into more detail on the bullet point.
Inflation overshoot in the global economy
This 2022 and forward will be dominated by the effort to fight inflation. Especially in US and UK. This alarmingly high inflation canceled all “transitory” themes the Central Banks try to maintain. All the money printings and liquidity injections get into asset classes as we see everything nonstop all-time high here and there, especially on equities and cryptocurrencies.
The rising wage and tight labor market, declining unemployment, less restriction from regulators around the globe now adding fuel into burning inflation. Not to mention the animal instinct of humans after being domesticated in the house for so long, will be compensated in more aggressive consumption and outdoor activities. In some sense, this is all good for the economy, but many economic forecasters are worried this will overheat and create the boomerang effect when the Central Banks failed to neutralize it.
The end of pandemic fear
We have published our stance on Omicron earlier, which seems in line with today’s situation. Although the infection numbers skyrocketing, the fatality rates are pretty mild. This is the natural universal vaccination and not to mention the vaccination numbers in the major big country economy is very high. The equilibrium between humans and viruses for survival is on the way to being achieved. This is bullish for the economy and is also connected to inflation. There are probable supply chain problems and bottlenecks here and there. However, this seems to be easing from time to time. If it ain’t so, it will be burning the inflation for more.
Hawkish Fed and the shift to tightening policies
This is the most fundamental point. Several weeks ago we saw the most dovish guy in the office, Fed Kaskhari, turn hawkish and aware of the danger of inflation. From zero expected rate increases in 2022 two increases. The dot plot or Summary of Economic Prediction shows an increase in the median expected path of the federal funds rate over the next few years.
This is the most fundamental point. Several days ago we see the most dovish guy in the office, Fed Kaskhari, turn hawkish and aware of the danger of inflation. From zero expected rate increases in 2022 two increases. The dot plot or Summary of Economic Prediction shows an increase in the median expected path of the federal funds rate over the next few years.
We will see outflow from asset classes, for more even last year we already saw some big money outflow from stocks. And withdrawal symptoms will start to kick in as there are not so many ‘easy money drugs’ anymore which creates crazy valuation in junkies asset classes. This money probably will be used more in the real economic sectors. Check out how indices and BTCUSD going down in rhythm:
The same goes for cryptos, multiple record outflow has happened. The incoming bear market will be more likely in the short and middle term. The only thing that can bring cryptocurrencies growth is another easing mode of central banks.
Russell2000 Held at 2100 Support, Counter Trend Move to 2280Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 15-Min Chart.
Support appears to have held at around the 2100 for the Russell 2000 Index (US2000). This is corroborated by the US2000 crossing above its medium term (195-MA) moving average. Also the Supertrend broke above its 2146 resistance above the last trading session. When observing the technical indicators there is a unique pattern on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) and the RSI. There is positive price divergence with the indicators. The AO is above 0 and the RSI is greater than 50. It is expected that US2000 rallies towards the 2280 price level. Failure of this move will be seen if US2000 declines below 2100.
The Point and Figure chart as well is showing a bullish reversal. Support is seen around 2110 and the Index rallied above its short (30-MA), medium (100-MA) and long (200-MA) moving averages. There are also positive crossovers with the short and medium as well as short and long term MAs. The AO is above 0 with the RSI trading above 50.
The longer term view remains corrective for the US2000. Resistance is observed around 2185.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 2100 and a target of 2280. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.70.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time of publishing I have exposure to US2000.
US2000 RUSSELLIm short Rusell from 2100 entered via order 10.2.2022 with SL at 2180 target 1700
Area from 2100 to 2160 was a big support for the entirety of 2021 now turned resistance.
FED is getting more hawakish by the day yesterday we got PPI 1% which is a leading indicator for CPI inflation is still going up FED will try to curb it. Bad news for stocks.
FOMC meeting minutes release today.
On 4h 200ma just caught up with current price action.
Russell2000 offer us clues for what's about to happenMore often than not, Russell2000 is ignored by traders. However, this index can offer us valuable clues of what's about to happen next in the economy and with major indices simply because it contains 2000 companies and these companies are medium size, reflecting best the state of the economy.
If we look at the posted chart we can see that the index has traded in a range between 2100 and 2350 with a spike in November that marks the top and the final of the uptrend.
This consolidation is proving to be distribution in fact and, considering it took a year, we can expect a major drop this year.
That being said, the index can lose 20% of its value to around 1700 zone support
Although, I don't trade Russell2000, my idea for other indices going in 2022 is very simple: sell rallies
Russell 2000: In the triangle and bullish divergenceWe are in the middle on the never-ending triangle on the daily chart. There was a false breakout a couple of weeks ago but it seems bulls are strong enough to break out this triangle once and for all. For swing traders, sell with an adjusted stop loss and for long-term traders, buy if there is a correction to the lower part of the triangle (2155) or after the correction if there is a breakout (2287). The bullish signal on the RSI is there and it must be taken into consideration and the 2575 level should be reached if the triangle breakout takes place, but normally, after 1 year going sideways, the uptrend should be much longer.
🔜S&P500: "NO COMMENTS"🔔 Proposed deal for this tool 🔔:
🔴Entry Point - 4637.6
⛔️Stop Loss - 4679.3
✅Take Profit - 4554.3
Thanks for your comments and likes 👍
👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
US30: potential downAnd so, according to the US30 index, some beginning of the downward correction can be traced. Now it is assumed that the instrument may rise to the level of $ 36,090, after which it will be under pressure from the sellers and the index will roll down. The target of the fall will be to break the level of $ 35607.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
Thanks for the likes and comments.
☑️US30: perspective movement➡️ I would like to draw your attention to a rather promising deal on the US30 index (Dow Jones Industrial Average). SELL is supposed. It should be noted that, in principle, a downtrend is outlined for this trading instrument, and the index will most likely fall by the end of this year. In addition, those who trade in the medium term can look forward to such indices as: Russel 2000; S&P 500 and USTEC100. These indices will also predominantly fall, but there is no need to talk about 100% correlation, the movement of the indices may differ, and sometimes by 180 degrees.
The parameters of the deal are in front of you. The second target is at 35460$ . But you should use partial fixation, taking to Break-even and then wait for the second target. Of course, don't forget about Stop Loss. Everything is in front of you!
🔔 Proposed deal for this tool 🔔:
🔴Entry Point - 35791
⛔️Stop Loss - 35879
✅Take Profit - 35615
Thanks for your comments and likes 👍
👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
LONG RUT: 8MONTH CONSOLIDATION BREAKOUT CONFIRMEDLong rut for 2600
rut breakout of ath consolidation after 8 months. recent bear failed to break down and invalidated =breakout BOOON confirmed.
US2000 Russel Supply And Demand Analysis-Price broke out of 1 year range.
- Looking for long positions if price pulls back
into the RBR demand using it as support/ breakout
restest zone.
-Confirmation on LTF
RUT LongWe have bounced off the 200 EMA on the daily chart . We are at support of the 34 ema on the weekly chart. We have had a long period of consolidation now. Corrections can happen with time or price. This has been a correction of time. The candle lows have been making higher lows and have been forming hammers on the daily chart . The higher lows on the daily chart combined with the support of the EMA’s is what makes me bullish . We also have a symmetrical triangle formation on the daily chart which we broke out of and retested intraday today. The S&P and NASDAQ have had huge run ups and some of the money may be rotating out of those indexes into the Russel. BTC is breaking out and looking to retest all time highs. If it starts making new all time highs I expect there to be an easier environment for the Russel to rise. The stop is below the low of the consolidation. If we break that I am no longer bullish and will have to re-evaluate. I would try and take an entry off a smaller time frame with a much higher stop to increase the RR on the trade. Another way to go about this is waiting for the Russel to start trending higher and confirming the analysis and then buying the first large enough pull back. Waiting for this will allow for confirmation of the trade idea and give a better RR as well.
RUSSELL ON MULTI MONTH BULLISHTapering should not stop this index to reach the moon. FED still keeps printing anyway. Meanwhile, business and economic environment will be getting better from this good momentum.
US 2000 PARALLEL CHANNELWhen you look at the D1, you realize that the market was in a trending bullish market however it broke the trendline around the "2195" price area however it never broke the previous low, which formed a strong support which repeatedly pushes price to the resistance on the upside where it gets rejected repeatedly creating a parallel channel. However the market has maintained the bullish trend, and is expected to continue with an breakout to the upside. "THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND"
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