Russell 2000: historical drawdowns point to more downside riskThe Russell 2000 's drawdown from its peak has been important (-26%), but not as severe as those seen during the dot-com bubble in 2002, the 2008 financial crisis, and Covid-19 at the start of 2020, when the US small-cap index plummeted by more than 40%.
To reverse the current downtrend of the Russell 2000 , the underlying causes must also be reversed, which are primarily rising inflation and the need to raise interest rates.
US ECONOMY: MACRO OVERVIEW
Inflation is now widespread and is not solely due to increases in energy prices, such as oil and natural gas . The United States still has a very tight labour market that requires a rebalancing of supply and demand, to avoid further wage pressures. There are currently nearly two job openings for every unemployed American ( FRED:JTSJOL / FRED:UNEMPLOY ) and the labor-force participation rate has not recovered to pre-Covid levels. The result is a strong pressure on salary growth , which is currently at 11% year-on-year.
The combination of higher energy prices and wage pressures raises labour input costs for US firms. Those who are unable to pass on higher costs to their customers will see their profit margins dwindle dangerously. In addition, since the Fed is firmly committed to raising interest rates , higher borrowing costs represent an additional drag on the growth outlook of small-cap firms.
RUSSELL 2000 index: outlook
The market believes that a recession will cause the Federal Reserve to slow its rate hikes or even reverse its policy stance. However, the Fed's focus remains solely on inflation, as the labour market remains close to full employment. To rebalance the labour market, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates aggressively.
The short/medium term outlook on the Russell 2000 index remains bearish until the Fed signals a change, which is unlikely unless there is a major recession.
A 40% drop from the peak would be a good entry point for opportunistic buyers to step in, indicating a wide bullish positioning clean-up. Such a level of drawdown corresponds to a Russell 2000 index level of 1,450.
US RUSS 2000
US2000 has more room to fall !!RUSS2000
Intraday
We look to Sell at 1699 (stop at 1714)
We look for a temporary move higher. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. Previous resistance located at 1700. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 1645 and 1605
Resistance: 1700 / 1750 / 1945
Support: 1640 / 1470 / 1200
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Russell US2000 Daily Outlook | 22 - AprYesterday was massively profitable for me. Today, once again lets see how price will react towards my expectations.
Note: Am not a mentor, i am just a random guy who journals his trades on TView for trading community to read and comment their opinion. This not a signal hence copy at your own risk!
Kings.
Russell2000 offer us clues for what's about to happenMore often than not, Russell2000 is ignored by traders. However, this index can offer us valuable clues of what's about to happen next in the economy and with major indices simply because it contains 2000 companies and these companies are medium size, reflecting best the state of the economy.
If we look at the posted chart we can see that the index has traded in a range between 2100 and 2350 with a spike in November that marks the top and the final of the uptrend.
This consolidation is proving to be distribution in fact and, considering it took a year, we can expect a major drop this year.
That being said, the index can lose 20% of its value to around 1700 zone support
Although, I don't trade Russell2000, my idea for other indices going in 2022 is very simple: sell rallies
RUSSELL BREAK COMING SOON!!The Russell 2000 has been in a year long consolidation pattern - w/ price finding supply above 2315 & demand below 2165 - We are currently opening the month inside last months & last quarters value - which makes price action neutral at the moment - BUT price held up well durning this latest equity selloff showing some relative strength & a possible short term higher low - looking for a break & buildup above 2257 top setup for another test of the highs w/ probability of finally breaking out of this range increasing - however price action below this months open should b considered negative and any bullish setups would have to wait till we move back above.
Watch & see how it plays out!!!
US200USD: RUSSELL 2000 updated COUNTShort-term = SHORT.
Mid-term = LONG.
This is my PERSONAL trading CHART, with no further educational explanations.
BUYING STRATEGY: Take 50% profit at 50% of previous WAVE (just do it) and place stop at purchase price.
IF price reverses lower YOUR EVEN,.... IF price continues UP-TREND then, re-buy at NEXT CORRECTIVE WAVE.
This is actually a very aggressive strategy for going in early that is why 50% "hedge" PROFIT is taken EARLY in the TRADE.
Combining ELLIOTT WAVE and THIS strategy , has SAVED my account 3-TMES during the past 3-weeks.
US-MARKETS : CORECTION NEARNG COMPLETIONDuring CORRECTIONS it is inciteful to create a CHART, where YOU can watch ALL the INDICES at once.
This is my PERSONAL trading CHART, with no further educational explanations.
IF you get it, YOU GET IT, if you don't, YOU DON'T. I really don't care.
We use ELLIOTT WAVE theory to determine WHAT we are looking for, (i.e. TOP or BOTTOM). THEN technical MULTI-TIME-FRAME Indicator analysis
To fine-tune to what extent price will and when. Enter and exit TRADES in steps ... NEVER go all-in or all-out at ONCE.
US-MARKET CORRECTION NEARLY COMPLETEDuring CORRECTIONS I find it useful to create a CHART, where YOU can watch ALL the INDICES at once.
This is my PERSONAL trading CHART, with no further educational explanations.
IF you get it, YOU GET IT, if you don't, YOU DON'T. I really don't care.
We use ELLIOTT WAVE theory to determine WHAT we are looking for, (i.e. TOP or BOTTOM). THEN technical MULTI-TIME-FRAME Indicator analysis
To fine-tune the expected move in terms of PRICE and TIMING. Enter and exit TRADES in steps ... NEVER go all-in or all-out at ONCE.
Russel small cap 2000 short ideaRussel small cap 2000 moving upside in a paralell channel and now the price arrived to the Channel upper line at 2300 usd. I think it will go down to previously support/resistance at ~2200.
Trade at your own risk.
If you like my idea, dont forget to leave a comment, follow, and like.