NDX is painting the biggest Head and shoulders in Nasdaq History This pattern getting painted filled with false hope of people thinking the damages from QE since 2008 and the Pandemic printing are over is very alarming if it plays out.
It was terrible enough seeing people lose fortunes / life savings during the recent collapse of the simpleton's running VC funds with insane leverage without telling people where their funds was, I caught onto this with Luna and a some lending platforms but not many people listened due to euphoria of price only go up.
Now the global economy is about to retract due to governments not supporting supply side of the business cycle and only creating demand via printing causing inflation and more poverty (due to businesses failing to meet profits causing less staff and a deflationary death spiral), this is magnitudes larger than what happen in the crypto space and what happen in 2008 combined with 2000. If this market starts to turn bearish and margins are not met, money that does not exist starts to get claimed, defaults start to happen, panic starts to happen.
Now is a great time to re evaluate where your funds are, are they safe from bail in inflation? are they protected from bail outs?
The federal reserve has one plan and one plan only.
• Raise reward rate for reverse REPO (Build a functioning bail out dam that can be literally controlled released)
• Raise Interest rate's collapse the bubble in all major markets (hoping to contain the current inflation outbreak)
• Panic mode but here's where the FED will step in and start to reduce the reward rate to ZERO
• Money starts to flow back into normal markets as any money still in the RRP will be earning nothing
• Majority will flow into US 20 year bonds causing the yield to collapse, funding the government, THIS is what JAPAN is counting on happening as they're directly involved, they hope to be able to make up for their unlimited bond purchases by selling US Government bonds at a premium
• Some money will start to flow into all equity markets from Government funding new infrastructure, and money going directly into markets from the RRP
• The will be all unfolding when the RRP award rate starts to fall do not focus on reserve rates
• All of this to reset the biggest bubble in history that will clearly put the world into a deflationary spiral to avoid needing to hyperinflate right now, everything I just explained is essentially to avoid hyper DEFLATION the big money from the QE / Stimulus is sitting in the RRP like the FED wants to be ultimately unleashed like the Three Gorges Dam during or after the collapse of the global economy
ALERT - - - - - - - IF this does not work to restimulate markets and there is still deflationary pressure the global reserve banks will be forced to start printing more money than you have ever thought possible think hundreds of trillions, the thought of hyperinflation will be accepted if the world is in a hyper deflationary death spiral this could genuinely end our human species due to quality of life dropping dramatically
Everything is happening now because of the absolute stupid decision idiotic insane unthinkable theory to start a program of unlimited QE and stopping the bust of the the natural boom and bust cycle filtering out all the bad actors, avoided the bust for what? everlasting inflation that the average person cannot outrun and start a family and population decrease is starting to happen. .
Good luck people -
US20Y
Energy sector will go into deflationary depression crash I thinkWe are on the edge of credit bubble bursting into flames lol. All this is going to be deflationary environment NOT inflation. You can't have inflation without credit. I believe we are on the edge of commodities meltdown cause by THE GREAT RESET of the world's credit system. Not the kind of reset everyone is expecting which is inflationary. This is going to be The Great Depression 2.0 IMO...
Macro - Reading The CurveForecast for Macro:
- Falling Wedge Breakout must be re-tested.
- Bear Flattener coming as short-term rates rise with Fed tightening expectations:
- 2x ATR spike in US02Y:
- The Fed members will probably all have their turn to make comments, leaning hawkish. This should cause a rally in the US02Y.
- Bonds Volatility Technically Bullish:
- However, this will be followed by a steepener, respecting the Falling Wedge Breakout, as the Fed implements monetary policies to control Deflation, creating a Stagflation environment.
- US30Y, this is bearish and deflationary:
- USOIL, deflationary. The US economy depends on Oil:
- US Manufacturing Employment Index, looks to be at the top of the range, and on a decline:
- Capital goods are the heart of every economy. Without manufacturing employment, no capital goods. No capital goods, no innovation.
- CN30Y, also bearish and deflationary:
- China's Credit Impulse, and consequently - global credit impulse turns negative.
- No more credit flows means no more liquidity to flow into risk assets.
- M2V declining, if the economy was booming and growing, money velocity should be increasing:
- Business destruction cannot be inflationary. Thriving tech businesses lead the recovery, but Tech is inherently deflationary.
- Reading the curve will be critical to see the macro turns coming!
GLHF
- DPT