US30
US30 H4 I Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 42,123.21, a swing-high resistance close to the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension
Our take profit will be at 41,562.08, an overlap support.
The stop loss will be placed at 42,397.93, above the 161.8% Fibo extension
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US30 I Potential short scalp from top of the channel Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** US30 Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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US30 Is Very Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for US30.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 41,801.97.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 40,853.86 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Dow Jones Index (US30): What to Expect from FOMC?
Dow Jones Index is very weak ahead of FOMC today.
The market is stuck within a horizontal range on a 4h time frame.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 41820 - the resistance of the range,
we can expect a bullish continuation at least to 42000 level.
Bearish Scenario
A bearish breakout and a candle close below 41440
will push the price lower at least to 41200 level.
Wait for FOMC and then follow the market after a breakout.
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US30 / UNDER FOMC PRESSURE - 4HUS30 / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
In August, the prices saw a price decline of 6.91%, reflecting a period of downturn. However, in September, there was a notable recovery, with prices rising to an all-time high (ATH) of 41,852. This peak represents the highest level achieved thus far in the prices history. Currently, prices are trading below this ATH, which suggests that the market is still testing its limits.
If the current price trajectory remains below the ATH of 41,852, further declines could be anticipated. Support levels to watch for potential price corrections are at 41,340 and 40,853. These levels might serve as points where the price could stabilize or experience a rebound.
On the other hand, if the prices manages to close above the ATH on a 4-hour candle, it could indicate a shift towards a bullish trend. This would suggest that the market sentiment has turned positive and could lead to further gains. In this scenario, the price might approach new resistance levels, with potential targets at 42,282 and 42,703. These levels represent possible areas where the price might encounter selling pressure or where further gains could be capped.
Overall, the price dynamics are influenced by how it performs relative to the ATH, with potential implications for both downward corrections and upward advances depending on market behavior.
UPWARD TARGET : 42,282 , 42,703.
DOWNWARD TARGET : 41,852 , 40,853.
DOW JONES Is a post Fed decline valid before an October rally?The day has come when the Fed will finally cut the Interest Rates for the first time since the early 2022 hike cycle and the question in the market is whether it will be by -0.25% or -0.5%.
High volatility is expected intra-day but technically Dow Jones (DJI) remains within an uptrend (Channel Up) both medium-term (5-months) and long-term (2 years). The last support and bounce was offered by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on September 11 and that broke the remarkable symmetry that the index had so far with the March - August 2023 fractal.
That fractal suggested that after a (dotted) Channel Up, the index should make a correction below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but on September 11 instead of breaking below the 1D MA50, the index rebounded (as mentioned above) and diverged from the fractal.
This means that the Bullish Led (green Channel Up) may this time start earlier and the rally may break above the 2-year Channel Up and finally deliver a new long-term pattern, possibly more aggressive.
Seasonality however is a big factor for investors and as we can see, the last two Septembers (2023, 2022) have been bearish, extending corrections that started in August but eventually managed to price a bottom in October.
As a result, any remark by Chair Powell during the press conference that isn't well received by the market, can initiate a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA200, ranging from -5.07% to -6.90%.
In our opinion, if that takes place, it will be a tremendous buy opportunity until at least the end of the year. If however Powell delivers what the market is expecting (and more), we expect the pattern to continue its divergence from the 2023 fractal and enter the more aggressive bullish pattern earlier. If the more aggressive pattern prevails, a 46000 target is very probable by the end of the year.
Notice that this divergence is also evident when comparing the 1D RSI sequences of the two fractals.
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DOW JONES: Is it forming a BLOW OFF TOP??Dow Jones isn't just having a strong bullish momentum on the 1D timeframe but also on its 1W technical outlook where it maintains a steady bullish overall indicator score (RSI = 64.010, MACD = 036.840, ADX = 29.553). However there are growing concerns coming from the 1W chart as the 1W RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence, trading on a Channel Down while the actual price is on a Channel Up.
This is alarming because last time this showed up was in late 2021 and as we all know led to the bear market of 2022. However the Bearish Divergence prior to that (mid 2017) was false and Dow continued to rise instead for another 4 months before a correction to its 1W MA50. And that is the level that plays the most important role here, the 1W MA50. As long as it continues to support, we will have a bullish trend.
Actually, Dow seems to be attempting a breakout over the Channel Up this month, unlike December 2021. Failure to break though can result into a blow off top.
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Usdjpy 1:3 risk reward ratio done i share this idea in previous.Usdjpy 1:3 risk reward ratio done i share this idea in previous. i take a trade in this pair and booked some profit
i didn't reccomend any to take my trade because if my analyze goes in my favour then people like and if my TRADE IDEA GO AGAINST then some people say - if you don't know hoe to trade then why you post it , that's why i'm not going to share any trade that anyone can enter on trade and blame me .....
US30, WAITING FOR PULL BACK THEN SHORTTeam, this morning, I predicted the US30 is likely to move according to the chart.
9 hours later, it finally arrived at the dot.
We will enter the short at 41646 once the price confirm.
Take 50% profit at 41590, bring stop loss to BE level.
then target further toward 41482
and 41361.
US30 longHere is why:
- August's monthly closure was very bullish as the candlestick has left a long wick. This shows that price had collected orders from the previous weekly liquidity regions before heading upwards.
- As of right now, price has broken into all time highs, which indicates that price is going higher. The weekly targets would be 42,450.
- Price is very bullish but I will have to wait for it to form a buy setup on lower timeframes before I enter into the trade.
US30 / Consolidation 41565 - 41340Futures kick off Fed meeting week on a cautious note
U.S. stock index futures were flat to slightly higher on Monday as caution prevailed ahead of a pivotal monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve later in the week, with investors pricing in a steep reduction in borrowing costs.
Technically:
The price will touch 41565 and then by stabilizing under it, will consolidate between 4155 and 41340 till breaking
However, stability above 41565 will be uptrend toward 41800, Otherwise, stability under 41340 will support falling toward 41030
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41565
Resistance Levels: 41700, 41800, 41950
Support Levels: 41340, 41030, 40800
Trend:
- Consolidation 41565 - 41340
- Uptrend above 41565
- Downtrend below 41340
Bearish reversal?US30 is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could fall to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 41,602.008
1st Support: 40,914.12
1st Resistance: 42,016.97
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dow Jones in correction rangeConsidering the price gap that has been created, which has not been filled from any side, as well as touching the ceiling of the upward movement, we expect the price to be corrected until the price gap is filled. According to the chart, short trades can be entered in two ranges
US30 - Rate Cut Uncertainty Drives Market ConsolidationFutures Muted Amid Uncertainty Over Fed Rate Cut Size
Traders are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of a significant rate cut, with the probability of a 50-basis point cut now at 41%, up from 14% last Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley has advocated for a strong case in favor of a 50-bps cut.
Technically:
Currently, the market is likely to test 41,030 before advancing towards 41,340, as it consolidates within the 41,030 to 41,340 range. As long as the price remains above 41,030, it is expected to attempt to reach 41,340. However, closing a 4-hour candle below 41,030 could signal a bearish trend towards 40,810.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41,180
Resistance Levels: 41340, 41550, 41900
Support Levels: 41030, 40800, 40670
Expected Trading Range: 41,030 - 41,340
Trend: Consolidation between 41,030 and 41,340.
Above 41,030 indicates an uptrend, while below 41,030 downtrend.
Previous idea:
US30 swing trade idea US30 has reached our level of interest between 41150- 41250 where we look for swing sell setups. Currently waiting for the last impulse upward to get confirmations from the weekly fib and VWAP levels. This is similar to NAS trade, which we sent our earlier. For TP levels, we are currently targeting 40550(750 points) but keeping in mind that this trade has a lot of potential going lower in the last quarter of 2024. Should we break our level of interest, it is likely that we are making a new All Time High. As always, trade safely as you possibly can and always wait for confirmations, before entering a trade. Good luck!
Expect the unexpected.
Fractals Trading Community,
Mei